Saturday Forecast

47 Comments

*This is the next day’s forecast due to a WP error.*

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)
An onshore northeast flow will hold clouds in the region and also result in additional snow showers today, which will gradually diminish. One large ocean storm offshore will move away early in the week as high pressure builds into New England and another storm passes far south of the region then blows up into yet another large ocean storm through midweek, far offshore. The circulations of these storms will be large enough to keep a northerly air flow going early into midweek, keeping it on the cooler side of normal. A weakening system from the west arrives Wednesday but likely with only cloudiness and little if any precipitation. By Thursday we may get a narrow sliver of high pressure just far enough east to create a southwest wind here, which will be a much milder result for all but the South Coast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers NH Seacoast and eastern MA, gradually diminishing from north to south. No additional accumulation. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH at times near the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-27. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill around 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s coast, upper 50s to lower 60s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Low pressure is expected to pass just north of the region March 30 with a mild and rain showery day as a cold front pushes into the region. Behind the cold front comes windy, dry, and colder weather for March 31. A quick-moving weather pattern evolves as March ends and April begins on a tranquil note April 1 then may turn unsettled and chilly April 2 followed immediately by a warm-up April 3, however this is not set in stone being this far in advance, and is based on what I feel is somewhat reliable guidance regarding the upcoming pattern, with my own timing tweaks.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)
A progressive flow but with a tendency to have surface high pressure in Canada sets up the potential for unsettled weather and below normal temperatures overall during this period.

47 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. They are. Since the bands they have depicted doing this after daytime bands on Sunday, I elected to leave out saying “locally heavier” because the coating to 2 inches that falls overnight will be in the process of melting while these bands are occurring, and also largely melting as they fall.

    1. It’s probably about right, though placement may not be, and take a couple tenths off for ratio adjustment on the 10:1 version.

  3. 3KM NAM even more bullish, but bulls eye a bit more NE of Boston.
    NE Mass has a 7 inch Kuchera Bulls Eye.

  4. Thanks TK. Given the medium range looks pretty quiet, I’ve been looking more at the longer term for the first time in awhile. The April pattern looks a lot like February to me. Battle between the cold to the north and the warmth to the south. We know the warmth won in a landslide in February. So far the models have been favoring the cold a little more this time, but I wonder if they’re underestimating a potential SE Ridge like they initially did in February. Either way, as the pattern breaks down into a progressive one, we switch back to fast moving disturbances with lows tracking mainly over us or to our west. Likely unsettled, but without the constant “big storm” threat of March. Would not surprise me if at least northern New England ran the risk of an icing event or two through mid-April.

    1. Fair assessment and very similar to the one I’ve been making too. You can see the first hint of these thoughts on my 11-15 DAY segment.

  6. Thank you, TK!

    Nice winter weekend in late March. Went on a 15 mile bike ride this morning. I’ll take this over rain and 40s any day. I think we’ll unfortunately get a lot of the latter in April.

    1. I agree with him on the first week of April. May extend a bit beyond that. Typhoon is the main driver in this upcoming cold, not the current chill obviously. I used to follow similar events during the 1990s and early 2000s when I had to do tropical forecasts for the world every day.

  9. regarding snow tonight:

    3KM NAM has backed off significantly over the 12Z run.
    Not sure what happened, but apparently these bands of snow
    are not going to be as robust as earlier thought.

    So far, radar echos do not impress in any way shape or form.

      1. Sticking with the original, coating to 2. Coatings will be more common than anything over 1.

  10. While I like Eric Fisher, I think he’s off base, and it’s too bad because he misleads the public. First, since when in SNE “will the weather start to match the calendar?” It didn’t do that last July when we struggled to reach 60F for several days in a row. Hey, it didn’t do that in early October this year when the temps were in the 70s (close to 80F inland) for a week. His statement is meaningless. And, surely anyone who’s lived in New England for decades knows that March and April are rarely springlike in the sense that there is no snow or cold, or that we pleasantly and gradually transition from winter to spring. March has always been a month in which plenty of snow falls in SNE. The pilgrims wrote about this in the 1600s. It shocked them, because they were accustomed to something completely different. Moreover, March tends to be a month of volatility in which cold and warm air surges fluctuate. This year it’s been mainly cool to cold air, with warm air cut off from entering this area. But, the averages over the years reflect the battle between warm and cold air. Often, this extends well into April, and sometimes May. Back to data on March. March is a relatively snowy month. It’s always been that way. Certainly much snowier than November, for example. And pretty close to December in terms of totals. This has nothing to do with a warming Arctic. I’m sorry, but that to me is pseudo-science. To attribute every supposed `unusual’ weather phenomenon to warming in the Arctic is nonsensical. I apologize for the rant. But, it annoys me when people who are supposed to inform the public are misleading them.

  11. Just to clarify, I am not saying global warming is pseudo-science. What I am saying is to attribute every supposed `unusual’ weather phenomenon to global warming or warming in the Arctic is pseudo-science. And, weather around here rarely `matches’ the calendar. What we’re experiencing right now `matches the calendar’ much more than those 70F days in late February. In fact, I think that Eric Fisher should have said that to make it clear that the true anomaly was the spike in temperatures the final week of February, not the weather we’ve had most of this month.

    1. +1
      Pretty typical March if you ask me. I made it to 50 today. That’s about right, maybe a tad over. While mid to late April can be ok, real spring, or what the rest of the CONUS calls spring, comes about Mothers Day. I get the warmer arctic thing. The idea is that a warmer arctic displaced the dreaded PV and delivers more cold to lower latitudes. Not sure that’s happening in this case. Like I said, typical March. And as you said, the Pilgrims experienced the same thing 400 years ago.

    2. March in Boston to-date is averaging 1.3F below normal. Hardly extreme.

      It’s been snowy, but we know that snow departures of larger magnitude are far easier to come by. All you need is one good snow event to do that.

  12. I am not attacking anyone but Please go back and reread the article. Nothing he said is wrong

    Turns out spring is the only season of the year that has featured more colder than average months than warmer than average ones (this year has already been included as colder than average, based on projections for the final 7 days).
    —deniers say….. you can’t say this. It does not mean the climate is changing its a cycle or my favorite. alternative facts.

    notable warming in summer and autumn, while winter is basically a wash. Spring, particularly early spring, has been extended winter.
    Deniers say…. no it hasn’t how about last year.

    In the past 6 years, 5 have been colder than average. No other month has even had 4 in that time, making it particularly stand alone.
    Despite them using the few anomalies themselves to try to disprove it.

    Climate change involves changes in overall patterns, weather extremes. etc. People say you can not pick 1 event, now they are saying you can’t put things together. In my opinion if you use this rational your so full of crap.
    Warming arctic is involved with changes in the flow of the ATMO if you do not agree with the facts or say we do not have enough data I also think your full of it and only looking at a small number of tools that are now available to us.

    Again not aiming this at you guys I am aiming it at the group of people that still believe climate change is not happening at all and those who believe humans have no impact on changing the environment. If you truly believe this. Three words Heat island effect.

      1. I would have to say at the very least we have a little impact, though probably more than this. There is no physical way we can have zero impact.You cannot exist in an environment and not impact it, positively or negatively. I guess an analogy would be if you put an ice cube in a bucket of water and say it has zero impact on the water temperature. Perhaps it may have very little impact, but it has SOME amount of impact. We can debate the magnitude of impact until our mouths or fingers fall off, which is why I think the wiser thing to do is just take care of the gosh darn planet we live on. Makes sense to me. 🙂

    2. I have no issue with Eric’s article. As far as his outlook, I agree. As far as his discussion about recent events, that is true, we have observed this. I don’t think 6 years is a big enough time period to base long term conclusions on, but the article brings up some valid points that fit into the larger picture.

      I think one of the points Joshua may have been making (correct me if I’m wrong, Joshua) is that we can’t just arbitrarily label one thing or another, for or against.

      I guess an example is what if the observations were reversed. Springs were warm for 6 years, cool summers/autumns, and winters canceling each other out? What would the conclusion be there? Same? Different? It’s just a few pieces of a very large puzzle we should not stop trying to figure out. 🙂

    3. Yes! My favorite topic besides guns on here…

      “The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulate at Bergen Norway.

      Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

      Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.

      Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the Gulf Stream still very warm.

      Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

      Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelt which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

      Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.”

      I must apologize.

      I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post – 94 years ago.

      This must have been caused by the Model T Ford’s emissions or possibly
      from horse and cattle flatulence?

      1. Guns? Yes. I have several.

        G Gordon Liddy has my favorite quote.

        “Bring a convicted felon, I have no gun collection. Mrs Liddy on the other hand has a collection that is quite large”

  13. Now, if you all would like to continue discussion or debate on the subject, please do so, but remain civil. The first sign of name calling will end the discussion and the posts will be deleted immediately. 🙂

    I will be watching, as will my helpful watch dog.

  14. Dark clouds in the northwestern sky here, much like a summertime thunderstorm approach…scary looking.

    1. We’re in the beginning of the transition. Heating of the ground / cold air aloft. I just took a photograph of a nice snow/rain shaft as a shower passed just west of me.

  15. Probably going to bump temps up a little bit for next Wednesday and adding in Thursday on the next blog post.

  17. This feature has definitely fizzled, just wet roads and nothing even on grass. More rain than anything else even though official obs says “snow”.

    1. The coating did happen on some grass and car tops, but I still maintain that the feature fizzled…badly in fact. Not that I was expecting much anyway.

  18. Got barely a sugar coating here which I am more than fine with. That was only on grass and deck. Hope that’s it!

    1. 0.1 inch here, a.k.a., a coating. Accumulating snow is finished for the day in the region.

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