Sunday Forecast

52 Comments

8:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)
An onshore northeast flow will hold clouds in the region and also result in additional snow showers today, which will gradually diminish. One large ocean storm offshore will move away early in the week as high pressure builds into New England and another storm passes far south of the region then blows up into yet another large ocean storm through midweek, far offshore. The circulations of these storms will be large enough to keep a northerly air flow going early into midweek, keeping it on the cooler side of normal. A weakening system from the west arrives Wednesday but likely with only cloudiness and little if any precipitation. By Thursday we may get a narrow sliver of high pressure just far enough east to create a southwest wind here, which will be a much milder result for all but the South Coast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers NH Seacoast and eastern MA, gradually diminishing from north to south. No additional accumulation. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH at times near the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-27. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill around 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s coast, middle 50s to lower 60s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Low pressure is expected to pass just north of the region March 30 with a mild and rain showery day as a cold front pushes into the region. Behind the cold front comes windy, dry, and colder weather for March 31. A quick-moving weather pattern evolves as March ends and April begins on a tranquil note April 1 then may turn unsettled and chilly April 2 followed immediately by a warm-up April 3, however this is not set in stone being this far in advance, and is based on what I feel is somewhat reliable guidance regarding the upcoming pattern, with my own timing tweaks.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)
A progressive flow but with a tendency to have surface high pressure in Canada sets up the potential for unsettled weather and below normal temperatures overall during this period.

52 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Cool! Now where’s the EasterNor’Easter Tim Kelley told me to expect last week…

    Of course I don’t want one ha.

    1. Sometimes I wonder if he was told to use the term by management. This was back when variations on the term “northeaster” was trending. Good for clicks, views, and tune-ins. That’s the way the media mind thinks even though the meteorologist just wants to deliver a good forecast.

        1. GEM has a moderately strong low departing the Northeast via the lower St. Lawrence Valley.

          GFS has a weak low in the middle St. Lawrence Valley with New England in the warm sector under weak high pressure.

          ECMWF has a weak low in the Great Lakes, high pressure and a mild and fair day in New England.

          This is from the 00z runs with GEM & ECMWF, 06z run with GFS.

          1. April 15th is my “snow is over” window. I know it’s probably July 15th for you ha…but I leave the shovel out until that time.

            1. Basically for me, if nothing happens by Marathon Monday then we are done with snow. Of course there have been exceptions, i.e. 1977, 1987. 😉

  2. Based on days 11-15 above, I would say there is still good potential for April snows. It wouldn’t be the first time for sure.

  3. Weather app shows rain on Friday…any idea yet if that’s a big storm or just showers?

    2. Explained in the discussion that I currently expect it to be a low passing north of the region, a cold frontal passage, and rain showers. If said low ends up further southeast, then a steadier rain would be more likely.

      1. It’s funny I can tell you we haven’t had a M-F without snow or rain at least one day for a while. Was hoping this would FINALLY be a week the framers could put a full week in ha. Oh well…

        1. Having a M-F without precipitation in this area? Probably 2 times a year. Good luck with that…

          1. HA yeah I know. Well we have a lot of dry summers where that happens…but late winter/early Spring I would never expect it. Wish the guy started back last October as planned.

    1. Dave, hope you enjoyed your trip. My friend and her husband came back from a trip to Costa Rica a few wks. ago. It was in the mid 90’s there too. My friend came back just before one of the snowstorms we had – and she was happier to be here than there. Was it humid in Israel or hot and dry?

    1. The headline says it “baffles” them, yet there is a clear explanation. Therefore it is not baffling at all.

      Do you have to be a certain level of stupid to write headlines for media these days? 😛

      1. It makes it seem like something is horribly wrong so yes that’s why. Clickbait maybe. Or they find a few scientists who aren’t in that field – say a food scientist – and ask them.

  8. Thanks TK. Temp is 34 right now here in Wrentham, that has not varied by more than one degree since midnight.

  9. If these are the last flakes of the season – and I realize this is a big if – the snow flakes I saw on November 6th on my drive up north were very similar to the ones I’m seeing today: Stray, aimless flakes blowing around. I’ve noticed that almost every year the first and last flakes of the season are like this. It’s like the snow in early November is saying “hello, I’m back, and I’ll do some accumulating later,” while the snow in late March (or early April for that matter) is bidding us all farewell.

  10. I saw some flakes this morning and was wondering will these be the last I see until November or December. I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms.
    TK do you think will see average number of thunderstorms days this summer will they be more squall line thunderstorms.?

    1. I don’t have much of a feel for thunderstorms yet but I’ll be working on that as we head through the spring. Severe weather season is off to a significant start and is likely to feature more activity than normal which has not happened much at all during the last number of years. We’ve been in an unprecedented tornado drought in the US. But the early severe season out there does not necessarily translate in to an active t-storm season in the Northeast, so we’ll have to asses things going forward.

      As for flakes? The CFS model says we are far from done with frozen stuff… Of course this is just the CFS model, but here are 2 of its panels from the 00z run.

      00z April 6: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2018032500&fh=288&r=conus&dpdt=

      00z April 13: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2018032500&fh=456&r=conus&dpdt=

      The GFS model paints a less nasty picture, though it has a stretch of unsettled weather, it shows less blocking and less cold than the CFS does.

      1. I qualified by statement by saying it’s a “big if.”

        Also, I agree with you on headlines being misleading at times. As someone who writes for a living I know that editors and others at magazines/newspapers/journals who publish my articles invariably change the titles. I don’t like it, but it’s the way things work. What this implies is that there’s often a disconnect between the title of my articles and their content. The titles tend to be provocative and intended to draw the audience in. The articles tend to be carefully reasoned, dry, and not particularly provocative. I could go down the provocative route focused more on form than content, say Michael Wolff, but that’s not me.

        1. I have a real issue with editors that do that and would have no problem standing up to them, even if it costs me a job. The truth means that much to me.

          1. I have stood up to them, and at the university no less (!) it sort of cost me my job. My boss’s thinking was that titles of manuscripts should be written to attract funding. Dry titles don’t work so well in this regard. I was repeatedly in conflict with him and the so-called medical writer (who oversaw our publications, and drafted press releases on our behalf).

            1. I’ll never understand why things just can’t be straightforward and to the point. What to we gain by altering so much, besides confusion and misinformation?

  12. Not doing much here, other than occasional snow flurries with a snow show
    interspersed. No squalls or moderate bursts. Sun out at the moment.

  14. I have taken a class in grant writing, im far from an expert from it but these are some of the things that I have learned from it. It also goes with interviews.

    Get the attention of your viewer, this can be different depending on who your writing to. There are different ways of phrasing a fact that does not turn people off. you put emphasis on what is important to that group. My professor has told me that he does two papers. One for the science community and another for the general public.

    Your tittle should put out the major theme of the paper. Due to our society loving short and catchy phrases, you need it short and to the point.

    Papers should not be combative, it should prove the point your trying to prove the point that its trying to put out. It is ok though to point out flaws of two opposing views/outcomes.
    for example.: Two different articles on coral bleaching. I will take it out of weather patterns.

    1st. Coral Bleaching a sign of coral death.
    2nd. Coral Bleaching is an Adaptive Measure which the Symbiotic algae is being replaced.

    Both are correct.

    Corals are resilient and have developed adaptive measures to combat long time changes in the enviornment. . But the speed in which the oceans are changing due to anthropological climate change is the problem.

    Coral bleaching is an adaptive measure that reefs have developed. The corals have 1 to as much as 6 different Symbiotic algae called zooxanthellae. ( as far as we know) we thought it was one or two just 5 years ago.

    its called bleaching because the corals loose their color as the corals basically spit out the major algae. After this either a secondary algae already in the coral takes over . Or zooxanthellae from the water column comes in. If these process takes to long the coral dies. These processes are varied from different types of coral.

    But which one do you think got move views 😉

  15. Some AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes. (I managed to get both wrong.)

    1) How high above the earth are the GOES weather satellites?
    A. 22.3 miles
    B. 223 miles
    C. 2,230 miles
    D. 22,300 miles

    2) Boston’s record total March snowfall is …
    A. 15.6″
    B. 23.2″
    C. 31.2″
    D. 38.9″

    Answers later today.

    1. I know these because of my profession so I’m going to stand aside on them. Although the first question I knew long before becoming a meteorologist because there was a weathercaster who said almost daily “and lets look at the view from ‘x’ miles up in space!”

  18. Answers to AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1) How high above the earth are the GOES weather satellites?
    A. 22.3 miles
    B. 223 miles
    C. 2,230 miles
    D. 22,300 miles

    The correct answer is D.

    2) Boston’s record total March snowfall is …
    A. 15.6″
    B. 23.2″
    C. 31.2″
    D. 38.9″

    The correct answer is D.

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