Saturday Forecast

106 Comments

8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
You may remember the forecast several days ago started talking about an ending to the blocking pattern and a fast-flow pattern taking its place. This has occurred and will continue during the next 5 days, bringing rapid changes in weather. This will include a cold front that brings a few rain showers early Sunday, a wave of low pressure passing south of the region that brings a risk of some snow/mix for a portion of Monday, a warm front bringing a period of rain that may start as snow and/or sleet Tuesday, a potential surge of very warm air between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and a shot of much colder air arriving by later Wednesday. Strap in for a weather coaster ride. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-53 Cape Cod, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to SW and diminishing slightly.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight with a chance of a few rain showers. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with a chance of rain showers, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH shifting to N and diminishing.
MONDAY: Cloudy through late afternoon with a period of snow/mix possible, favoring southern MA southward. Potential snow accumulation of a coating to 2 inches north, 1 to 4 inches south, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Some evening clearing possible. Highs 35-43. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with a period of rain possibly starting as snow and/or sleet. Partial clearing possible late. Lows in the 30s. Highs may range from the 40s north to the 60s interior south, but much uncertainty here.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with a period of rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm, ending late. Lows in the 50s south and temperatures rising to the 50s if they didn’t get there already to the north early morning. Highs in the 60s except cooler South Coast, but may turn much colder west to east all areas afternoon and evening. Timing is uncertain being 5 days away.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)
Colder/drier weather for the Red Sox home opener April 5, and then it’s time to watch late next week for a potential precipitation event that may be in the form of rain, sleet, snow, or any combination of the three. Lots of time to keep an eye on that possible event.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)
Though I would love to report a pattern change, I can’t quite that yet. Although I’m not seeing any signs of one of those spring blocks, I am continuing to see an active pattern with cool air domination.

106 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Ch. 5 already has a snowfall map for Monday with a coating to an inch along the Pike with 1″+ for CT/RI/SE MA. I bet there is room for a northward trend.

  7. Thanks TK. Fantastic day on tap!

    Current call for me on Monday is a coating to 2” on grassy surfaces all locations along and south of the Pike. Have to watch the Monday AM commute although it looks to be a mostly light intensity event and coming after a warm stretch, so any snow will struggle to stick away from grassy surfaces.

  8. Is it possible that the northern fringe in the lighter precip is light rain and then very close to the south coast in the heavier precip, it is snow ?

    2. That is entirely possible, and depicted on some of the short range guidance. That was my reasoning for mentioning mix as well as snow.

  9. If we get snow on Monday it would be the 3rd straight April with measurable snow. Also interesting to note that for the 2nd straight year March will be colder than February. This year March has not been particularly cold, but certainly a bit below average. Last year March was well below average.

    On the Red Sox, it’s really encouraging to see Sale and Price spin beauties. I still think pitching and defense is the name of the game. Sure, you need some offense, but baseball statistics over many years suggest that winning teams almost invariably start with great pitching. I believe the Astros are an anomaly in this regard, as their pitching last year was not especially great. In fact, their bullpen was average at best.

    1. Sure, but I’d rather have great pitching and Hitting both. Can’t beat that.
      Given a choice of one or the other, then pitching hands down. 😀

      I hated the way Cora handled opening day. I hope it is just a learning hiccup and not a sign of things to come else I’ll be calling for his HEAD just like I was
      for that moron Farrell.

      1. Cora’s in a difficult spot, in my opinion. However much I was not a fan of Farrell, the Sox did well last year and the year before under his direction. It’s going to be hard to win 93 games this year. And even harder to have as many come from behind victories and extra inning wins (they were an astounding 15-3 last year) as they did. So, Cora’s mandate is to not only win the division or get into the playoffs but go deep into the playoffs. I think getting in will be difficult, and going deep into the playoffs even more so. There’s a lot of healthy competition in the AL this year.

      2. So exactly how was it his fault? Should he have put kimbrell in and let him pitch 2 innings? Cora was given a bullpen by the GM. He used Kelley. He puked on his shoes.

      1. Yes, you’re right about that. There are of course several more chances down the road. In any case, it would be the 3rd straight year of below average temps and at least snow chances the 1st week of April. I’m not saying this is unusual, but it’s notable.

  10. I think it was last week I said that I didn’t think warmer weather would come with a pattern change. It’ll be climo that warms us up. Just like the last few springs. Last time I remember a pattern warming us up was 2012. I was hoping this would be the year a pattern change would do it earlier, like the return of the ridge. But I fear we’ll just have to wait until May. I know the month hasn’t even started yet, but I’ve already written off the first half of April for any semblance of what most people think of decent spring weather.

    1. It generally takes until Memorial Day weekend to finally get rid of the early spring cold. I suppose it is a blessing in a way and keeps the typical severe storms away from New England that most of the U.S. has to deal with every year. Just my 2c.

      1. I think Mother’s Day is pretty much the start of better weather. But I remember some darn cold memorial days too. I’d be happy with some consistent 50’s.

        2. I think we will have a good summer and when I mean good summer, I mean a 80s and 90s being more of the norm than 70s. its going to be like a flip of the switch. We could very well have maybe a week or two of consistant spring weather. which I don’t mind, go right to summer weather 🙂

  11. Barry mentioned snow for next Saturday. It would be quite ironic if April has more snow at Logan than in February (7.8″). Barry kept noting the very cold air still in Canada.

  13. Just went for a walk. In the shade, today’s low dewpoints certainly make it feel cooler than yesterday, but in the sun, the sunlight surely made it feel nice and warm.

  14. Logan snowfall to date = 58.6″

    I predict Logan makes the 60-inch club either Monday or next weekend at the latest.

  15. Cora will need some time to get the team working his way. We need to give him time which means it might not be this year. Would not be mad if the sox’s do not get to the playoffs. 1. because i find watching baseball boring( playing it is a different story) 2. Since when do we expect a team with a new person in charge to go right into the playoffs?

    1. The Sox have a good team overall, with weak spots. I think those that like watching the games should be entertained by this team provided they don’t have unreasonable expectations. I love the game, but I don’t usually watch a game fully through. I don’t mind having it on radio when I’m doing other things, but most night’s I either just see highlights via news or watch them online. 🙂

  16. 12z nams much farther north.
    not sure how snow on the ground that means, but i would say 2 inches in boston
    is not out of the question.
    waiting on gfs,cmc and of course the euro.

    1. mobile now, but 3km kuchera snow for boston, near 4 inches. cut in 1/2 abd we have 2 inches. sounds good.

  20. Gfs is the least bullish with virtually nothing for Boston and perhaps an inch
    or 2 South Coast. GEM and RGEM in between NAMs and GFS. Waiting on Euro, which I suspect with be like the GEM. We shall see.

    1. I am probably going to edit my blog to add snow amounts by late afternoon. I’m already inside 48 hours but with a tiny system ripping along the jet stream like that, literally 10 to 20 miles in track can have quite an impact on snow amounts, even on the small scale we are looking at.

  21. The Lunar Facts!

    Tonight’s full moon is the second full moon of March, a.k.a., a “blue moon”. By now you all know that a blue moon does not mean the moon is blue, but it’s just a name given to the second full moon in the same calendar month. Blue moons are not too rare, as they occur on average about every 2 or 3 years. What is fairly rare, however, is to have 2 of them in the same calendar year. The last time this happened was 1999. The next time will be 2037.

    The next month with 2 full moons will be in 2020, with a full moon on October 1 and a blue moon on October 31.

    1. It is also the full “sap” moon. Barry had it as a trivia quiz. I got it wrong as I thought the sap started last month in February. I was thinking maple sugaring.

  28. Hmmm

    Euro 500 mb flow, curved perhaps “just” enough, plus precip extends pretty
    far North.

  29. Similar to our last system, you’ll need to get into the heart of this thing to see meaningful accumulation. It’ll be a very narrow stripe. Consensus right now supports my C-2″ along/south of the Pike. Shift the mean south 25 miles, no one in SNE gets much of anything. North 25 miles, you’ll introduce a 3-6″ band through CT/RI.

    Interesting battle between the high res US and Canadian guidance (WRF suite vs. RGEM/HRDPS).

    1. Agree.

      I was just about to say: Ignore the Euro at your own Peril

      Didn’t that apply last time???

      I hate this model divergence, but I suppose in a way, it’s a good thing.

    2. Funny that the NAMS are more aligned with the RGEM and HRDPS. 😀

      But that WRF suite….yuck.

    3. Agree and it’s basically why my first call (above) is splitting the difference and reminding folks about the “no pavement clause”. 😉

          1. Too early to tell on that one. The pattern may support it, but trying to figure out deterministics is futile at the moment.

  31. It looks like the 15Z SREF POPPED its cookies…..

    Seem awfully bullish. Still waiting on a few panels.

      1. Bullish compared to the other models.

        IF model A says 1 inch and model B says 4 inches, then I say
        Model B is bullish. It’s all relative.

  33. Hi everyone!

    Major flooding this day in 2010.
    Snow this day in 1997.

    Did a lot of driving today and am still amazed at the tree damage from the March 2 storm. The winds around here were between 55-62 mph that I could see.
    I know each storm has its own story and characteristics. I also know that the storm
    cleared out much dead wood. But, I know I have said this before, I can’t image the damage when we get a Cat 3 storm or its equivalent here.

    What a nice day today! Middleborough High’s baseball team played their first baseball game this morning. Nice to watch ball again in a warm sun!

    Happy Passover, Happy Easter, Happy Spring, Happy Full/Paschal/Blue Moon!
    No Foolin’!

    1. Always enjoy reading your posts. You touch upon the range of weather we can see here. Always important to remember that.

      Last Easter (April 16), Boston’s high temp was 86. A summery toaster but still 8 shy of the Easter record of 94 in 1976. This year…seasonable but a gusty breeze.

      I’d also like to echo the wishes of all the above to anyone observing whatever they are observing. We surely have a conglomeration this time. 😉

      1. TK I just wanted to personally thank you for this outstanding blog. I don’t often comment but I do read and catch up on it every few hours every single day! I truly enjoy reading up on the latest forecasts as well as catching up on what folks are chit chatting about. I’m pretty beat this evening as we burned the most brush on the property ever! Lost 14 trees on 3 acre property to either uproot, snapping a few feet up or just completely crushed from the snow tonnage here in Andover. Early Saturday evening in the cards! Hope everyone has a nice Easter.

        1. Wow, sounds like mother nature made a lot of extra work for you during her pruning. Hope things are looking better there and you can get some rest! Thank you for the very nice comments and hope you continue to enjoy the blog!

          1. We’re trying to take care of the tree work ourselves as I enjoy it as a hobby. I got to pick up a new toy in the process, a telescoping Husqvarna pole chain saw. Certainly helps with the “hangers” several feet up. Will need to hire a crew at the in-laws down the street as a crane will be needed to get two very large maples that are hung up and intertwined with others. I honestly don’t think I will ever forget that morning as trees were cracking and virtually exploding from the tremendous weight. March snowstorms are one of my favorite weather events around these parts!

            1. Despite the work they can trigger, the mashed potato snows are amazing to witness.

    2. I had a photo show up on my FB timeline this am with Pelham Island Road, Wayland, in flood 2010. Always nice to see you here, Captain

      Happy Easter to you. Happy Easter to all.

  34. According to ABC News met Sam Champion, the cold will stay in place for the next two weeks.

    Yes, that is his last name, that is all I know about him. 😉

  35. Sam Champion was a meteorologist at WABC Tv in NYC for a number of years. He went on to TWC and hosted American Morning Head Quarters.

  36. I have seen better and I have seen worse. Sam is only doing fill in work at ABC while Ginger Zee is on maternity leave.

  37. I’m a little late to the blue moon conversation above. My wife and I were married on March 31, 1999, the last time that there were two blue moons in a calendar year. We didn’t realize until recently that this happens every 19 years. In some sense, today is both a nineteenth and a first anniversary for us!

  38. Happy Easter everyone. I know all the region stuff that goes with many of these holidays but to be honest the thing I like most about these holidays are those who you spend it with. Nothing else matters besides for your family being there on those days, what ever holiday you celebrate. Heck having two familys celebrate two different holidays can just be beneficial 🙂

    1. About 1/3 of my family will be Anime Boston today. They will arrive later this afternoon. Myself, my mom, my 3 living brothers, 2 of my sister in laws, one nephew and his girlfriend will be down at my mom’s for dinner this afternoon. Usually we’d have the anime crew here along with another nephew and his soon-to-be-wife with her daughter, and my niece, her husband, and their daughter, but they are out of town visiting other family members today and will come by sometime in the next week.

  39. The update for today’s blog will be posted in the 9AM hour…
    So far it looks like my initial snow #’s above will remain unchanged.

  40. Goo morning,

    Euro says keep the snow South tomorrow AM as does the GFS and cmc.

    The mesos say an inch or 2 here. Pretty much Tk’s forecast.

    Even the SREF has backed off. Oh well….

    Euro is cooking up something for the 10th. We shall see. Long way off.
    The 10th is just getting too far into Spring! . Enough already. Which means
    we’ll probably get hammered then.

    2. I just watched a forecast most down here 1-2 with all on walkways , lawns no main roads even less for Boston C-1 and flurries north heading towards NH. She called it as minor as an event as you can get .

  42. Happy Easter to those who celebrate.

    We have Easter 2 weeks in a row as we also celebrate Orthodox Easter next weekend.

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