Monday Forecast

101 Comments

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)
A small and fast-moving low pressure area passing south of the region brings an insignificant snowfall to the region through midday today. A warm front approaches Tuesday with some precipitation returning, mainly rain though some pellets of ice are also possible. Then, a surge of warm air arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday before a strong cold front sweeps eastward with showers/thunderstorms later Wednesday, followed by a return to dry but colder weather for Thursday. The fast-flow pattern continues and this drives the next low pressure into the region Friday with more unsettled weather. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with snow accumulating a coating to 2 inches all areas and locally up to 3 inches south of the Mass Pike during the morning, however accumulation will not really take place on most roadways and some walkways. Clearing during the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Thickening overcast. Areas of rain arriving, may start as brief snow and/or sleet especially interior areas. Highs 38-45 occurring late day. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain early. Temperature rising into the 50s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog early. Partly sunny midday. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and possible thunderstorms later. Highs 48-55 immediate South Coast, 55-63 just inland from the South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix day. Chance of rain/snow showers evening. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)
Watch the April 7-8 weekend for additional unsettled weather that may include snow for parts of the region. Another system may follow this around April 10 with more unsettled weather. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)
Risk of wet weather early in the period followed by a drying trend with moderating temperatures, possibly a brief significant warm up at mid period before cooling somewhat later in the period.

101 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK for that info on 4-8-1996…and Joshua as well. 🙂

    That April 1996 was even more snowier than I thought. I had no idea there were two events that month.

  5. Thanks TK.

    No changes in my thinking for today, which is basically identical to TK’s. Will be tough for anyone to exceed 2″ in SNE given the daylight timing. 4/8 looking like the old “cold and dry, kiss it goodbye” scenario. Any snow with that looks more likely to be found in the mid-Atlantic or Southeast as a pure arctic air mass blankets the CONUS.

  6. Well if you want some snow, we have snow on the grass and the roofs and starting to stick to the street and sidewalk here in Northern CT near the MA state line.

  7. Thanks TK
    Looks like a winter wonderland where I am on the 2nd day of April. Of course not unheard of to get snow in April. We average 1.4 inches in CT. Some kids getting a rare April snow day today.

  9. Thanks TK. Also just to put to rest the argument that snow can’t stick on roads in April, just look at video from NJ.

      1. 🙂 always here but with hectic life little time to post. Losing my mom has been very difficult and to add on I have been smoke free going on 2+ weeks!’

        2. Three years this April 18th for me. It wasn’t easy but it is so worth it. First two weeks is the hard part and you already passed it. Good Luck!

        3. Hadi, you are always in my thoughts. I wish only the best for you.

          I quit smoking right after Mac and I were married. Good for you!!!!

  10. Good moring,
    I can report first flakes in JP at 8:05 AM. Spitting snow off and on during the drive
    into the office. NOTHING here at the office. NOTHING!

    1. I continue my pathetic typing. moring => morning.
      GEEZ, my mind just won’t transfer the thoughts to my freaking fingers)!(@#&*!@#&!

  16. Hadi, take care. This has been a difficult year for you. Also, good luck with kicking the smoking habit.

  19. Snowing moderately where I am. Just shy of 4 inches.
    Yankees home opener postponed due to snow. Something that does not happen often.

  20. So, most don’t like to look past the current situation, but since today is no
    bug deal, what are the thoughts on the suppression of the 4/8 system.

    Euro had the suppressed system first, then the GFS and CMC followed suit after each having a sizeable snow storm previously.

      1. Trend this Winter was to initially have a system, then suppress it,’
        then have it trend back to the North and West. Will that
        happen again? Who knows. I am currently guessing perhaps
        not this time.

  21. Visibility down to 2/3 mile in snow approaching Moderate.
    In a strange use of terms, I would call this snow a “HEAVY LIGHT SNOW”.

    Not sticking to anything that I can see just yet.

  22. Vis now under 2/3 mile in near Moderate Snow.
    Grassy areas and car roof tops now snow covered.

  23. Looking at the radar with my naked eye, I would say that Boston is literally on the very northern edge of the “heavier” snow.

  24. HEAVY snow in Coventry CT and only 27 degrees. Closing in on 4″ here as well. It is accumulating on everything including the roads which are not in good condition. Plows have been out.

    Ironic the kids had school today and roads are worse than they were during the day of either of the last two storms.

  25. Moderate snow here.

    By nowcasting the radar, looks like we get the moderate to heavy stuff for a while. We may end up with a couple inches on the grass.

    Oh well ………

  27. This thing appears to be overachieving for sure. Even where I am – while we are still well within predictions – it’s really coming down and covering everything.

  28. Very slick on the roads in Sutton Center and Wilkinsonville. As usual, the Highway Department got a late start and is just starting to salt.

  29. 4.5″ now Coventry, CT and several inches of slush on the roads. This was quite the little thumping here and still snowing albeit a little lighter now. Overachieving for sure!

  30. Sky is VERY BRIGHT here even though it is still snowing pretty decently. Snow
    covering everything EXCEPT the roads. Looking at radar, the “heavier” stuff will
    be winding down shortly. Perhaps 1/2 inch on grassy surfaces. Wonder what
    kind of facata total Logan will have?

  31. Just did the drive from Harvard to Concord r/t to drop my son off at school (can’t wait for him to start Harvard Public in the fall as every morning as I begin my one hour r/t trek to Nashoba Brooks I look longingly at the school buses picking up our neighbors’ kids directly in front of each house…. I would say light to moderate snow most of the trip and even some minor accumulation on the roads themselves on 111 mainly in Acton – it was suprisingly slick here and there. Potentially a little tricky driving as a long stretch would be just wet pavement but then a slick spot could catch someone by surprise. It’s also interesting to note the difference from town to town in how well the roads are treated and also how well they are maintained (ie potholes).

    Hadi – congratulations on quitting! My husband and I both quit when we knew we were expecting Sammy – it’s not easy but the best thing in the world. I was only a light smoker but my husband was a pack a day for 20 years. He is so much happier and healthier now and we never miss it anymore.

    TK – you should still write songs. I am a not-very-proficient musician but a huge music appreciator and former classic rock DJ. I would give anything to be able to write but just don’t have that gift. If you have it please use it!!

  35. Seems to be winding down here. 2.5 and might make the three well forecasted by TK. Nothing on any paved surfaces.

    1. Still looks like one more band to pass through.

      Watching GFS for the next event. Still looks like a pass to our South, but
      not out far enough yet.

  37. in my area, it been snowing for a good amount of time. Had about an inch around 930, then around 11 snow was still going but not accumulating, then by 1230 still going yet we lost accumulation. Now a dusting on the ground

  38. Waiting on the Euro, but looking at the GFS,
    there is a storm threat on the 8th, 10th, 14th and 17th and any of them
    should they materialize, “could” feature at least some snow.

    Wouldn’t it be something IF April ended up the snowiest month of the
    Winter season. I don’t think that has ever happened or if it did, it would
    be exceedingly rare.

    Probably NONE of these will materialize and if any do watch them be rain anyway.
    Still something to monitor.

      1. You beat me to it.

        April can be fairly snowy. Not common, but the future looks bleak if you like spring. It’s not coming anytime soon, with the exception of cameo appearances.

        As I tell friends of mine, we’ll be done with snow chances by July 4th. I can guarantee that.

        1. I’ve written off the first half of this month.
          Another week or so and if the long range doesn’t improve much, the entire month is in the toilet and we depend on climo to warm us up.

        2. Thanks all. Are you saying that for the Winter of
          1996-1997, April was the Snowiest month due to
          that monster storm 3/31,4/1???

          Or just reporting that it was the April snow fall
          record?

          thanks

  39. Today’s event definitely overachieved in many places. Needed a 3-6” band in the forecast for CT/RI. Just a slight northward shift was enough to get the heavy rates into the region. April Sun was overcome with no problems in those areas.

  40. I thought this might be one of those years we get a couple 90 degree days in April. That is in serious jeopardy

  43. I think we will see the pattern change with a snap of a finger come the end of the month. Until then active stormy pattern. I do have to admit, I want to get on my bike.

      2. No motorcycle. The type of accidents you can suffer though that, no thank you. I MTN bike, road bike, and dirt bike. I mainly do MTN bike and bike. Use to dirt bike much more but havn’t been able to get a new one in a while. Rather save up for new Skis for next winter. Also have no idea where I will be doing after this year. lol.

          1. 10 points to JP dave and 5 points to Ace for
            1. knowing how not neviornmentally friendly they are
            2. I been on one before. I had a crazy girlfriend at the time who road. Lets just put it at that and my mom wanted to kill me after she found out lol.

              1. Brings back wonderful memories of a day when Mac and I were heading north for a long weekend getaway and I received a txt from my son asking if I knew whether our primary care office was open on Saturday.

                That’s all.

                After some digging, I found out he went off his bike on Storrow Drive on his way to Brighton after his shift ended near midnight. It slid on the sand from a previous storm. No one stopped to help him but all cars stopped on Storrow until he could get up and get the bike from where it had landed.

                One of the happiest days of my life was when the bike was stolen.

  44. Amazing what April sun can do even behind the clouds. Had close to 4″ of snow today. Barely A coating left.

      1. You could almost hear the snow melt that day. That was one thing I remember about that as well.

  45. From Taunton for Wed.
    So as we move into the warm sector the airmass becomes moist and
    unstable with strong winds aloft available to be tapped. This shows
    potential for thunderstorms, and will need to be monitored for the
    potential of strong thunderstorms

      1. Here is the text that JJ alluded to….

        Shortwave digging over the Great Lakes generates southwest flow
        aloft over the Northeast USA. All models show the surface weather
        system warm front either well to our north at 12Z or quickly moving
        to that position during the morning.

        Strong upper jet flow with the right entrance region moving over
        Southern New England during the afternoon. Strong low level flow
        with 50-60 knots at 950 mb over the oceans and the coastline and 50-
        60 knots across all of Southern New England at 850 mb. These winds
        increase to 60-70 knots over RI and Eastern Mass in the afternoon.
        Precip Water values climb to near 1.25 inches, which is well above
        normal for April. Mid level lapse rates reach 6.5C to 7.0C/Km, and
        totals climb to 50-54.

        So as we move into the warm sector the airmass becomes moist and
        unstable with strong winds aloft available to be tapped. This shows
        potential for thunderstorms, and will need to be monitored for the
        potential of strong thunderstorms.

  46. Jp Dave, 1996-1997 was a mild winter overall with limited snowfall until the blizzard. I’m just going on memory, but I am quite sure April 1997 was the snowiest month that season.

    1. I will assume it was the snowiest month. Up until the storm, Logan had received 26.5″ for that winter season. Otherwise it would have been well below normal.

      1996-97 = 51.9″

      Normal = 43.8″

  47. A little concerned with the strong wind gust potential for Wednesday PM, aided by convection. 2 days away so will monitor…

  48. 18z GFS is back to a hit for the storms this weekend and early next. It has also accelerated their arrival with the first system delivering a glancing blow of snow on Saturday 4/7 and the second delivering snow to rain Sunday 4/8 into Monday 4/9.

  50. Nice overachiever we had in CT today Mark. Looking at the storm totals looks like a general 4-8 inches across the state including 6.0 at Bridgeport and 4.9 at Bradley.

  51. Yes indeed. I had 5”….near the end it was literally melting at the same rate it was accumulating. Probably would have had 7 or 8” if it was January.

    How much did you end up with?

  52. I ended up getting around 5 inches. Amazing what that strong April sunshine does as most of it melted.

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