Friday Forecast

84 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)
A weak storm system heads into the region today and its center of low pressure will track down the St. Lawrence Valley this evening. The time-of-arrival will allow the atmosphere to warm enough so snow will be confined mostly to the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH where minor accumulation of up to 2 inches on unpaved surfaces may occur, with rain/snow mix elsewhere Boston north and west with no accumulation, and just rain to the south. The cold front trailing from this system will be slow to get offshore but not close enough for anything more than a touch of rain/mix southeastern areas early Saturday, and a wave of low pressure moving along it will stay far enough offshore to keep the region dry Sunday. This has been the system of concern being watched for several days. But we’re not quite done with the active pattern yet and another low pressure system is likely to bring rain/mix/snow to the region by Tuesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds this morning. Cloudy with snow/mix northwest, mix/rain southeast this afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind light S to SW.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, mix far northwest, early. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with a bit of light rain/mix possible mainly southeastern areas. Becoming partly cloudy by late in the day. Highs 43-49. Wind light SW to W.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind light W to NW.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)
An overall drier stretch of weather is expected but the jury’s out on temperatures. A significant warm-up is possible April 13-15 but we’ll have to watch a frontal boundary to the north, typical of spring, that could make it much cooler, and the speed of a front from the west later in the period that would bring a cooler airmass from Canada via the Great Lakes.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)
Fairly progressive but slightly more active pattern is possible during this time.

84 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK

    Early ideas on Tuesday? I’ll reschedule today if there is some confidence. It is only a follow up but Would be nice to give notice IF possible

  3. Hey TK…do you think between 5-6pm today it will be raining/snowing around these parts? Wondering if my kids sporting event will be on…it’s outdoors.

  4. Good morning,

    Re: system for tuesday

    CMC is not backing down on a significant snow event, however the GFS and also the Euro are having NO part of it whatsoever.

    1. the euro and gfs have the two pieces of energy not meeting up until after they come near us or not at all. The trough is also rather flat compared to what the Canadian is showing

  5. Thanks TK. Sunday’s system suddenly looking a little close for comfort. Consensus still offshore, but I’ll be watching the 12z runs closely.

    1. its the difference between climatology and meteorology. They use different tools and climate models have actually had much better records than your typical weather model

  9. Oddest snow I’ve seen in a long while. Was out and about with youngest and when you were in the snow, it was so fine you almost could not see it. But if you looked off at the trees or across the fields, the snow was so fine and thick that it appeared to be fog.

    It started a bit over an hour ago. We have a bit of accumulation on one area in back but otherwise just wet.

    1. snowing at a decent clip but not accumulating here either, the high sun and warm surface is helping with that

  12. Accumulating on deck furniture, a bit of the back lawn, and on the trees on the hill behind the house. They look awesome.

    Much steadier and heavier now.

      1. Since I posted 10ish minutes ago, it is now accumulating on all surfaces except paved areas.

  13. This winter and the past few are like the machines in Terminator ….. you just can’t finish them off !! 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

    2. Well, mother nature says the seasons are changing because we are messing with her, this is humans punishment.

  16. Winter wonderland here in Coventry, CT. We have had moderate to at times heavy snow the past three hours and 2” on the ground. 32.4 degrees. Everything is completely covered and there is slush on the driveway and roads. Plow just went by blade down!

  19. Heavy snow here in Billerica, yet nothing accumulating. If this was earlier in the year, i would probably have an inch already.

  20. Euro is way wide right for Tuesday/Wednesday. Ditto for Saturday.
    Shall we write them off just yet?

  21. Didn’t expect snow of this intensity…at home and IT IS starting to cover the roads now. Obviously deck, grill, grass all totally covered and coming down hard.

  22. Snow has finally tapered off and we ended up with 2.7″ here in Coventry CT. Our second good thumping here this week. 7.7″ now for the first 6 days of April and 72″ on the year.

  24. Back edge approaching.

    Can we eeeek out enough to put Logan at 60 inches on the year????

    About 1/2 to 3/4 inch here, but here ain’t Logan

  26. Watch how fast this stuff melts right after that back edge crosses. Won’t be any need for any treatment. Temp stays above freezing all night.

    1. Excellent! My walkway is totally covered and refuse to lift a shovel at this point ha.

    2. It is perfect snow for those who don’t like snow. It melted while it was snowing the other day.

  27. Snow here in Plymouth, NH. Maybe an inch or two, mostly on the grass.

    12z data supports keeping the Sunday threat mostly offshore, with some potential for far SE New England to get into the snow shield. Pretty cool to see a major snowstorm miss wide right in April. 200 miles west, we’d have a blockbuster.

    As for next week… right now just looks like a classic “failure to phase” scenario. Maybe just some light rain/mix with that one for SNE. Look for a warm-up late next week, but long range… sustained warmth looks elusive.

    1. Look at 4/16!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        1. GFS shows early rain then PM rain/snow showers and a gusty wind. Nothing catastrophic.

    2. Generally agree on all points.

      You know what I want to do sometime? This is a hunch idea. I would love to gauge medium range model performance in relation to MJO phase. Do any or all models perform better or worse when the MJO is any a particular phase in comparison to other phases…?

  29. Don’t worry about April 16. The model solutions for that will change a dozen times between now and then. They already have been.

  30. To be sure. but the Euro freaked me out! Who needs accumulating snow
    for Marathon Monday_!*@#(!*@()#&*!(@&*#)!@(#**!(@#)!@#(*!*@#

    1. It’s happened before. Everybody survived.

      And remember several years back. The BIG storm that they considered canceling the race for? Yup. Mainly offshore, rain/snow mix early, few sprinkles around race time, gusty north breeze. *yawn*

      The mass population continues to treat April events like it’s January. The ONLY time that was a fair comparison was 1982 because of the magnitude of the cold during and after the storm. Even the 1997 storm was not the same because despite the huge snow amounts, the roads never iced up once the snow ended. It was just wet. And you could hear the snow melting, rather loudly.

      1. I admit I fall for this…I hear snow this time of year and think the worst ha. The media DOES feed into that…obviously not their fault I give into it, but it’s a problem. Like NECN calling for another Nor’Easter April 1 a few weeks out or so.

        1. There are too many absolutes spoken of instead of taking into account the time of year and the specifics of each situation.

          Snow is snow no matter when it occurs, but snow’s impact on the region varies greatly given the status of a significant number of things.

        2. I head snow this time of year and smile. If I heard snow in August, I’d smile. And if I heard 90 next week is smile.

          1. I’m betting I know at least one more person here who would do the same ….not just one but at least one

  31. Just had to walk to the Center to pick up a few things.
    Took a measurement just before the snow quit here in JP.
    Exactly 7/8 inch on the roof of my car.
    1 inch even on the grass. That is all. Over and out. 😀 😀

    What will Logan report? .5 inch????? AND how much would they need to
    reach 60 inches?

    1. Btw, areas of the streets and sidewalks were getting slushy. Had the snow
      continued, no problem gathering there.

    1. So just shy of 60 inches. Not too shabby for a winter which was not supposed to be a major snow producer.

        2. And he may turn out to be right should we squeeze out another 4 inches. I’m doubtful, but one never knows. My shovel is always nearby in the boiler-room. I even look at it longingly on those hot and humid days in July.

            1. To get snow within 10 inches either side if beyond excellent. Forecasting snow departure is a hundred times harder than forecasting temperature departure.

  34. I rely on long-range guidance from Accuweather. Plan my whole life around it. They’re saying it’ll be 82F on July 4th with a thunderstorm in spots. So there you have it.

    1. Same impact as light rain. No big deal.

      If I had a dime for every time I’ve said that the last several days I’d have way more dimes than we’ve had inches of snow this season. 😛

  36. Good morning.

    Looking things over, doesn’t look like any more snow on the horizon, but one never
    knows around here. 😀

  37. A couple flakes outside my window right now.
    For those who made guesses at BDL in Windsor Locks 1.3 inches fell yesterday bringing the snowfall total for 17-18 to 54.6 inches. For April 6.2 inches of snow has fallen. The average is 1.4. Only two winter this decade 11-12 and 15-16 have had below normal snowfall which is 40.5 inches.

      1. oooo only 0.6 below normal 1 week into the month! SNOW DROUGHT! 😉

        I’m going to guess they reach or exceed their average in April 2018. 🙂

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