Sunday Forecast

96 Comments

8:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)
A wave of low pressure pulls away from New England over the Atlantic today. A disturbance coming through this evening will produce a few isolated to scattered snow showers and reinforce a batch of cold air for the start of the week. Regarding the low pressure system approaching Tuesday, still looking like a weak system for this area as the main southern energy misses to the south and the weaker northern energy moves through, with the 2 waiting until being east of New England to phase up. A weak area of high pressure moves in Wednesday with dry weather before sliding off to the east allowing a warmer push of air ahead of a cold front on Thursday.
TODAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Highs 39-46. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing snow shower possible evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-30, coldest north and west of Boston. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered areas of light rain/mix/snow possible mainly late in the day. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a late-day rain shower. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)
Much of this segment unchanged from yesterday’s update…
This period of time is fairly difficult to figure out weather-wise not only given that spring has so many influencing factors in place with a cold Canada, a chilly ocean, and a building warm air mass not all that far to the south of New England. In addition, the boundary of that Canadian cold and southern US warmth will never be all that far away. Right now expecting a shot of cooler air and a breezy but dry day on April 13. High pressure should bring fair weather April 14 but with it centered in eastern Canada and not off the US East Coast that is a recipe for a chilly coastline and milder air in the interior, but not the potentially very warm shot of air that once looked possible. Sometime during the period of April 15-17 a trough will move through from the west but it may be rapidly weakening as it does so, pushing just a frontal boundary through with a passing brief period of precipitation but temperature averaging near to slightly below normal. If this system is a little further south and/or a little stronger it may bring a more significant precipitation event. Still plenty of time to fine-tune this period of time especially as April 16 is Patriots Day / Marathon Monday. Will refine this a little more for next update.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)
The current indications continue to show a mostly progressive pattern of passing systems with a couple periods of unsettled weather, and temperatures averaging near to mostly below normal for this period.

96 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Barry has 73 for Friday and a cold rainstorm just prior to or on Marathon Monday.

    The mighty Euro obviously. 😉

    1. Almost verbatim. I applaud his courage. I’m not that brave at the moment. 😛

  3. Thank you, TK. Looks as if snow won’t help me get out of that appointment Tuesday 🙁

    Yesterday was a lovely spring day. I was reading on deck for well over an hour. Kids were enjoying exploring . Today looks to be another. Perhaps morning coffee on the deck 🙂

  4. Barry also mentioned that the race was threatened by a major snowstorm in 2007 but ended up being a cold 1-2″ of rain instead.

    TK – Is that what you posted yesterday that the race was almost canceled? I honestly don’t remember the 2007 race in particular one way or the other.

    1. Yes. That event. It was one of the most over-hyped events in the history of Boston TV. I mean it was WAY over the top. They were talking like the runners would be battling blizzard conditions. That was never going to happen. I remember a lot of forecasters had a pretty good handle on that event and we tried to explain why it would be more like a gusty day with rain and mix, on the light side, and mostly before the race, but people weren’t having it. It was going to be 1997 all over again, combined with 1982.

      We were right.

  5. Good Morning and thank you TK.

    Sorry, but still too chilly for April. At least there is some sunshine. 😀

    1. I feel the same, too chilly.

      The coast would be chilly on something that more resembles spring, but inland should be somewhere in the mid-upper 50s, I would think, away from a springlike seabreeze

      1. Absolutely could be warmer, but it is nice to be having Sunday morning coffee outside. Trees are starting to show buds and the birds are singing up a storm. Perhaps, not literally

          1. Sun went in. I won’t last as long as I will later, but it is a love,y way to start the day ….even for a short while.

          1. Twitterpating! You bet. Out bluebird house is very active. My feeders are full and I understand hummingbirds may be here soon.

    1. Happy Divine Mercy Day to you

      Thank you for teaching me something new. I had to look it up. It is a lovely tradition. I try to do the same daily but sometimes need to step back for a bit first.

  8. Thanks TK! I think I’m pretty much in agreement with your thoughts.

    Not a guarantee, but at this point I think it’s more likely than not that most locations in SNE have seen their last measurable snow for this season. No apparent opportunities in the next 7 days, and beyond then accumulating snow becomes pretty uncommon. However, it’s still more of a cold season pattern than a warm season one. It’s a low impact pattern with no major storminess, but temperatures above 50 will be hard to come by for another few days. Warming up towards the end of the week- if things align right we may get a 70 degree day by next weekend. 60s at least. Watching around a week from now when the pattern could potentially support a heavy rainfall event.

    1. TK still keeps hinting at his “safe” date for measurable snow of May 10 (1977). I believe he sees one last snow event potential down the road sometime this month. We will see.

            1. Ah yes. I’m on meds for atrial fibrillation episode, make me a little loopy.

              To answer that question, I’m not ruling anything out right now even if it’s not “on the models”.

  9. Getting the newMaineCoon kitten this afternoon. Names we are thinking of is Kodiak, Denali and MicMac after the native american tribe up in Maine.

  10. Thanks TK
    Nice early March day in early April. Looking forward to the final round of The Masters. For any Fred Couples fans like Vicki at 1pm on CBS they will be showing a Fred Couples special on his 92 Masters win.

    1. 4-10 inches of snow forecast by that run on April 16 after upper 70s away from the coast just 2 days prior. Wouldn’t that be fun. 😉

    1. FWIW the GFS also has mix/snow in parts of southern New England on April 24.

      This would be funny because a couple weeks ago the CFS model had snow on April 26.

  13. I would agree. I don’t see the EURO showing a snoworama that day. If it does show a snoworama twitter will be lighting up.

  15. JimmyJames. The Freddie special was awesome. Thank you for letting me know it was on. I would have missed it. Lots of smiles and some tears. I still remember that win as if it were yesterday.

  16. Vicki I am glad you enjoyed it. 58 years old and Freddie makes another cut at this years Masters.

  19. They needed this kind of start to get people interested. Not a likeable team last year so this is a big turn around.

  20. Mac was a fan of both Spieth and Fowler. I am not familiar with Reed. But I loved the hole in one by Charley….Macs name was Charles. 🙂

  21. I feel bad for Rickie Fowler since he has come close so many times to winning a major. I believe he has the game and will one day win a major and it may happen this year.

      1. I spent the day missing the best part of me……they can be a hell of a lot worse than weather

  24. CFS super long range has been trending a little warmer the last few runs.

    Also we’ve had a trend today by some guidance for the front to be north of here next weekend but it’s so many days away I don’t trust anything at this point.

  25. Definitely watching the temperature forecast for Saturday. If the front ends up north of here as appears more likely based on today’s data, we could have a breakthrough day. If we get a clear-ish warm sector air mass, combined with dry antecedent conditions and maximized sensible heating this time of year (pre-leaf out), we’ll up run into the upper 70s or 80s on Saturday. Not at all definite this far out, but very possible.

  26. I actually like this weather…don’t get me wrong I would rather it be 75 and dry but with that comes lawn cutting and other jobs that right now you get a reprieve from ha.

  28. Logan only hit 40 today. I would be curious as to what the max low high is for the date. I bet not very far off. It did seem colder compared to yesterday but I thought it was my imagination.

    Tonight is going to be quite cold, only in the 20s even in Boston.

  30. Good morning. Nice JANUARY morning out there. GEEZ it’s cold and I don’t usually complain about it being cold. ENOUGH ALREADY, how about some nice Spring weather
    and not this Shit Can weather.

  31. Today’s sun strength and length of day is equivalent to …..

    September 2nd.

    Yes, by Wednesday, its very late August equivalent sun.

  32. JP Dave, I’m with you, and I like winter. But, this is getting to be too much. It felt almost as cold today as it did late last week. Close to bitterly cold on my early morning run. While it looks like (almost mid!) April, it continues to feel like January.

    Here’s the problem. The cold will eventually abate, and it’ll be rather sudden and we’ll head straight up into the 80s. I call it the `spring overshoot’ (in economics overshooting is a real phenomenon in trade and finance).

    By the way, they canceled yesterday’s game in Minneapolis due to … cold. When Minnesotans think it’s too cold, it’s definitely too cold.

    1. Relative to normal, its not been that warm in a lot of places. New Orleans the last few days has been in the low to mid 50’s, OKC has been frigid for April, and the mid atlantic down to coastal Carolina has been chilly too.
      And I have my doubts about this “right to summer” idea. I’ve heard that said for countless springs and I’ve never seen it really happen. I think its an urban myth.
      Everyone I know is sick of it. Front loaded winter and back loaded too. No consolation February was warm. It was Feb, who cares. And people i talk to understand its not going to be 70 degrees. They just would like to see some 50’s

  33. Waiting on the NAM, but the 6Z GFS hinted at some Norlun type snow for tomorrow.
    Yes April 10th, disgusting isn’t it? 6Z NAM said no, but we shall see what the 12Z has
    to say.

    At least so far all signs point to a rain event on or near Marathon Monday.

      1. HA! Probably.

        Naw, I think I’m safe. If it does snow, it’ll be a flake or 2 that wont amount to anything. Plowable/blowable snow is done. And yes that’s an absolute I know. But I feel pretty safe with the pronouncement.

        1. I’m sharpening my hockey skates, waxing the toboggan, and replenishing my inventory of long-johns.

  36. GFS for tomorrow afternoon. SNOW in the air, but nary a accumulation.

    Kuchera accumulation

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040912/039/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    10:1

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040912/039/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    Looking at the 10:1 and comparing to Kuchera,
    there looks to be Plenty of snow falling from the sky, but without accumulating
    much. Will be an interesting afternoon and IF this comes to be
    I believe this would make the 3rd time we will have seen SNOW this April(!*@(#^!&*(@^#&*^!@&*#^!^@#*(&!*()@&#*(!@&*(#^!&*@^#&^!@&*#^&*!@^*#&^!

  37. If we hadn’t missed the past few snow events, our landscape would have probably put January to shame. My crocuses would have definitely “croaked” under all the snow. 😉

  38. The last time I heard a cat purr was my cat Simba who we lost on the first day of fall in September to cancer. The night before was the first time back in the house after the construction. We visited him every other day if not every day of the week in the evenings. I was gone most of the summer on Nantucket but the rest of the family was at a hotel in Burlington. I had that one last night sleeping with him, and he did purr for me one last time, the following day, he was doing his normal routine, we thought he was stressed out because of the construction, but that night he was in my bed,and at first thought he had a hairball, he then was having trouble breathing. My parents brought him to the animal hospital at 11pm, we found out that his lungs were filled with fluid due to cancer. With the amount of fluid he had, the vets were shocked he was still alive. To this day I still feel like he was waiting to make sure all of us were home.
    We new we were getting our little Maine coon kitten Yesterday, The day before, some of the flowers around Simba’s ashes came up, and yesterday opened.

    Last night was the first time I had a kitten back in the house and hurred a cat purr. Also the first time since that last night with Simba, I had a cat sleeping next to me, and waking me up. For those who are on my facebook I already have pics up there, will post a few here when I get the chance.
    Also still have no name yet lol

    1. With tears streaming down my face, thank you Matt for sharing your moving story. I absolutely believe that Simba wanted everyone with him. It is special you have a new kitty. I have seen pictures of him and he is just as handsome as it gets.
      Also…..I already chose the name. I thought you got the message 🙂

    2. Good to hear you have a new kitten. While cats are independent (it’s why I like them so much), they do get attached to humans. Simba’s in cat heaven, happy to see you’ve got a new kitten companion. If your kitten’s an outdoor cat do remind him of our quirky New England weather.

  39. I am not the great snow lover. I generally like a few events of the 4-8″ variety and maybe one dumpster. That’s enough for me. I’m at the point where some warmth will work just fine, but I don’t see it in the forecasts. Even later this week, the cold air just isn’t that far away. Enough already!!

    1. Yes, and the forecasts on Friday evening on TV were misleading. All TV mets called for a “major pattern shift” with “spring temperatures” beginning later this week. While slightly warmer weather is on the way, I don’t see a major pattern shift in the offing.

      1. Mean trough moves west raising our heights thus warming temps along the eastern 1/3rd of the CONUS. While not translating to significantly warmer temps, the next 2 weeks or so translates to near average for this time of year (low 50’s)

  40. If you need to see some consistent mild, spring like weather anytime soon, there’s only one solution ….. head south or out of New England and the Great Lakes area.

    Looks like a cold rain or wet snow being advertised on the 19th under a bir of renewed blocking around then?

  42. Don’t let higher heights in the eastern US fool you. It’s all about the surface. We’ll be finding that out this weekend.

    New post!

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