Thursday Forecast

92 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)
A warm front approaches today and passes tonight, preceded by clouds and a little wet weather, then in comes a shot of warmer air for Friday into very early Saturday before the boundary that introduced it comes back to the south, pushed by building high pressure in eastern Canada, returning the chill to the region during the course of the day Saturday, then remaining in the region for much of the holiday weekend including into Monday. The biggest questions remain for Monday are whether or not that boundary moves back much to the north ahead of a stronger low pressure system and cold front from the west, and the timing of a ribbon of heavier rain showers associated with the stronger cold front, especially with regard to the Boston Marathon and a Red Sox game. The Patriots Day Red Sox game has only been rained out 4 times (1959, 1961, 1965, and 1984). There are still a few days to fine-tune the timing of that. Onto the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. A period of light rain late day and evening favoring Boston area northward. Highs 43-50, coolest along the coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain early, then partly cloudy with patchy fog. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, rising to the lower 50s overnight. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 53-59 South Coast, 60-66 elsewhere except 67-75 interior valleys. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind light SW to W.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy except becoming cloudy from northeast to southwest late-day with possible drizzle/fog by evening. Highs ranging from 55-63 southern NH and northern and eastern MA and 64-72 to the south except cooler South Coast, then falling through the 50s to the 40s in all areas from northeast to southwest during the day and to the upper 30s at night.
SUNDAY: Overcast with areas of fog/drizzle and a chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet. Temperatures steady middle 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Chance of rain. Band of heavier rain showers favoring later in the day. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs ranging from the middle 40s north to lower 60s south but low confidence temperature forecast at this time.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)
Expect a progressive but active pattern with a few episodes of unsettled weather and temperatures averaging mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)
The pattern of days 6-10 continues at least into the start of this period. It may try to warm somewhat later in the period.

92 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Can we please get rid of the COLD? And no, one or 2 days sneaking in doesn’t count.

    PLEASE WARM IT UP already*!( @#*(!@^#^!@&^#&*!@#^!@&#^*!&@#

    Spring is generally MISERABLE around these parts. Sure, occasionally we get
    really nice weather, but that is not the norm.

    I could do without April and May. Move from March right into June, thank you very much.

    1. May is ok. Around Mothers Day things tend to get better.

      But yea, April is generally pretty horrid most years.

  7. Thanks TK.

    This is somewhat technical, but a very interesting climate study came out just the other day that’s gaining some mainstream international headlines, which doesn’t happen too often. It involves the observed slowing down of the Gulf Stream and associated AMOC. I do not agree with the sub-heading in this particular piece calling this “unprecedented”, because it has happened before, several thousand years ago. But what’s happening now seemingly follows the logic as to why it has happened in the past: injection of fresh water into the Atlantic via melting ice. I think the only question is whether there is enough fresh water input to cause the same kind of total shutdown seen in the past. We don’t have ice caps over most of the Northern Hemisphere anymore. Is the melting we’re seeing off Greenland enough to shut it down completely? I think it probably is, but we don’t know for sure. An AMOC shutdown would likely be catastrophic for Europe and the eastern US. And if we are experiencing a shutdown, that is something we would likely have to deal with in our lifetimes, not centuries from now. The switch on this can flip extremely quickly by climate standards.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/11/critical-gulf-stream-current-weakest-for-1600-years-research-finds

    1. Excellent article. Thank you. I thought it was written well enough for even the layman to follow. I am not alone in the knowledge that it will be up to you to make a difference. Judging from what I have seen lately from the younger generation, you are well informed and well prepared.

    2. Thank you WxWatcher. I have read about this before.

      The problem is, who will heed this warning? When it comes to the almighty
      dollar. too many look the other way. Perhaps it is already too late. We shall see, or should I say, you all will see.

      In any case, most interesting and thank you.

        1. What happened to the ice age predicted in the 1970’s that morphed somehow into warming in the 80’s. and has since morphed to mean anytime it’s cold or hot it’s abnormal.

          If this happened 1600 years ago it has little to do with people.

          “The warm Atlantic current linked to severe and abrupt changes in the climate in the past is now at its weakest in at least 1,600 years, new research shows. ”

          OK…so it’s happened before and will again…cyclical. Not sure why everyone thinks climate is suppose to be static. There WILL be another massive ice age at some point (many in fact) and the Earth WILL be reduced to a barren ball of rock at some point as well once the sun burns out.

          The earth is a violent sphere…we are all any second away from a meteor or volcano blast or earthquake or anything that could wipe out most of us.

          On that note have a great day!

          1. I suggest that you may want to take your head out of the sand and at least “try” to keep an open mind and not summarily dismiss concepts such as this.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Random musings on a Thursday:

    New Jersey was fairly cold, but not as chilly as here. Parts of New Jersey are truly eyesores. Sad, actually. Blight, but not in the way we normally think of blight (Bronx, 1977). Just mile after mile after mile after mile of (mostly) decaying malls, (often broken) neon signs, derelict buildings, etc … I’m not for government overregulating, but zoning and enforcement of ownership responsibility to make proper use of properties owned can be a positive thing and is sorely lacking in parts of New Jersey.

    Saw some of the elite marathon runners today in the Esplanade Park. Mostly Kenyans. 40s and rain won’t be fun for them or any of the marathon runners.

    Charlie opened his pool in mid January. MLK Day is Charlie’s official first day of spring.

    WeatherWiz, I do agree with you on one thing: The phrase “climate change” gets bandied about too often in response to individual weather events, like a hurricane, blizzard, or heat wave. However, I disagree with your implied comment that climate change has nothing to do with humans. Climate change is real. Some of it is indeed cyclical, as you mention. But some of it may be influenced by us. I believe the jury is still out on whether humans have a significant impact on climate changes. But, this does not mean we should be complacent. Moreover, and I think more importantly, humans have definitely had a severely negative impact on our earth’s natural environment: pollution of our water and air, thinning of the ozone layer, extinction of certain species of animals, etc … I think that awareness of our negative impact has increased over the years, which is a good thing. But, more can be done to improve our stewardship of the earth’s natural resources.

    1. Your comments are excellent. We do not know how much we contribute. However, there is a very simple solution to getting folks to work together. We just clean up our mess. I cannot believe in my wildest dreams that anyone can sincerely state we have not polluted our water, air and earth. Why would a person not want to clean that up?

  10. In comparison, look at the 12z NAM for Saturday 2PM:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018041212&fh=54

    Brings the backdoor front in much more quickly. It’s got 40’s pretty much everywhere by early PM.

    If I am forecasting for northern CT based off the NAM, the high Saturday is in the 50’s (AM) and dropping to the 40’s in the PM. Euro/GFS/CMC meanwhile have highs pushing 80. Quite a bust potential with the warmth in some areas Saturday though I suspect the NAM is bringing the front through too quickly.

  11. Only brief comments regarding stuff above…

    The article about the climate: Well-written. I can’t dispute most of what’s there. *this is a recording* You can’t be part of an environment without impacting it. You know the rest. Yes, we have an impact? How much exactly? Nobody really knows, exactly, so assume it’s maximum. And of course natural cycles play a huge part as well. We’re seeing that on Mars right now. The polar ice caps there are melting. Think it’s the Martians burning too many fossil fuels? The culprit is the sun, which also plays a major role in our own climate. After all, we’re one planet closer to it than Mars is. 😉 But that doesn’t mean we should be blind to our contribution to things upon our own planet. When we go totally blind, we sign our own death certificate in advance.

    JP Dave I sympathize with your dislike for spring, but I don’t want to skip any months, especially MAY. That’s an awesome month! 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😉

    Joshua… Agree with all your points, however I have no comment on pool man. 😉 That subject was already dealt with by me and has been finalized. 😉

    1. Agree as I always have. It is the complete denial that we have and continue to destroy this planet that bother me. Whatever impact we have would be at least improved if we clean up. Why there is debate that we need to clean up is beyond me.

  12. I had to erase half of my orginal post, because of some of the ignorant comments above.
    1. Earth has always had changing climate
    2. It will continue to change with or without humans
    3. problem is not necessarily that we are warming but the rate at which its happening. We are seeing animals and plants struggling with the changing climate which does not just involve temperature but also precipitation patterns. For those interested, The Poles are seeing the greatest rate of temperature increase, with the equator having more steady temperature increase as well with mid-latitudes having pockets of below normal temperatures but in general also showing warming trends.
    4. Its a problem that we are warming as most things point to that we should be cooling.
    5. People use current events that are going linking them to climate change, because many people especially those in this country have attention spans of a bee. and not willing to look at a big picture, or a scary picture, trying to hide behind a safety door.
    6. Yeah one or two storms might not be related to climate change blah blah blah. But, trends are our friend. 😉
    7. If we do to much damage, the earth will become uninhabitable for humans.
    8. The ocean circulation shutting down, is earth way of trying to fix itself. If you do not give a crap about the earth and our impacts, maybe you will with this. This will effect everything in our way of life. Earth will make it more difficult for humans to live on it, Which to be honest, if we do not fix our act, we deserve to be punished by Mother nature.
    – Fisheries and aquaculture.
    – Stop warming water moving up the east coast of the USA and into Europe will
    send temperatures plummeting as the earth tries to fix itself and increase ice
    cover. ( for those who hate winter, lol.)
    – Water will not be moving as much and will help make bodies of water even
    more saltier. and more acidic.

    There is so much more that I can say but It would probably take up more than TK’s post.

    1. Also eventually, despite this being gloom and doom and usually effects the people that do the least pollution and impact to the earth, eventually the $$$$ in fixing after these “singular weather events” will add up.

          1. Go read the primary literature that this is on. Read both of them and get back to me. I read both

    3. Well you can blame the changing seasons.. Winter is shorter and been generally later. Spring in general shrinking from both sides. Summer has been more variable and goes further into fall. It’s causing a mess with farmers

    1. I’ve asked before several times and you have not answered. Do you believe we have polluted the earth, water, air?

      1. You always bring that straw man argument that up that has jack squat to do with anything remotely related to man made global warming.

        1. Actually it does have to do with it. I may not be an “alarmist” or use my opinions for political reasons, but I’m not ever going to believe putting crap into the air and water has zero impact on anything. It may be tiny impact, but since we will probably never know the degree of it in our lifetime I’ll err on the side of caution for the sake of my son and daughter and the generations that came after them.

          That said, you’re allowed your view. So be it.

        2. Also scientists use climate change as it includes a lot that’s involved. It’s not just temperature. That phrase is used primarily by politicians and advocates of both sides

    2. What’s your degree in? In my opinion just like I would not question the Dr, I believe those that do not have a degree in the earth and atmospheric sciences can not really question it. Especially if your not reading up on it with credible sources. Deniers are just like the tobacco industry

      1. Can’t question something if you do t have a degree in it??
        Son, you have a lot to learn.

        1. Im waiting for your answer. So far the “son” has presented informed information. Not so much you eh?

        2. You have no sources backing your opinions. Until you show me research saying other wise. No you cant

  15. 18z NAM continues the earlier passage of the front. I do think that is too quick, however.

    1. Yeah, it’s close. Thinking Saturday will be one of those days where people are upset with the forecast no matter what.

  17. Sadly, the climate debate brings out the worst in many on both sides. For those uninterested in learning more or without an open mind on the issue (again, on both sides), I would recommend just walking away from it. It’s not worth it. I will never shy away from posting occasional interesting climate facts and studies like that, but notice that I never mentioned humans or any cause once in that initial post. I’m not interested in debating those with no interest in the issue. I just thought it was a really interesting study and one that could potentially be very relevant for our region.

    1. The article was excellent. I am not sure debate is ever bad. There is passion that surrounds this one. Sadly, there is also a middle road that can be taken that is a solution to many of our problems and possibly all.

  18. On the next sunny day, conduct an experiment.

    Put a black shirt and a green shirt out in the sun for a few minutes. After a few minutes, see if both shirts are the same temperature or one is warmer than the other.

    Then, visualize every dark cement road not being there, instead likely being some kind of green grass or green foliage forest during the high sun, warm season. Then, imagine how much of the earth’s albedo has been slowly altered the last couple of hundred years.

    I’m all for the dark roads and everything that we’ve built for our society that is heat absorbing.

    But, to think we’ve had no effect is something I can’t agree with.

      1. Mac did tests on better road material years ago. It had definitely promise. And it was blocked by larger powers. Not only are there tests….it exists.

        1. He also did testing on alternatives for oil as well as other materials that pollute. Was he qualified? He wrote or co wrote many current national standards for limits on carcinogens and Pollutants

  19. We’re eyeing a potentially significant, prolonged winter weather event this weekend here in Plymouth, NH. Sleet and freezing rain look to be dominant p-types in a strong cold air damming environment. Model forecasts have been pretty erratic, but some of the model runs of several models have been showing an alarming amount of ice (0.5″+). An April ice storm would be pretty rare.

    For SNE, it looks like mostly rain, but as JJ said the NAM would introduce icing issues all the way to the south coast.

    1. I buy sleet pretty far south but not freezing rain. Surface won’t be cold enough with a few exceptions in isolated locations.

  20. If you’re friends with me on FB you may have seen my post about this…

    Last night a friend of mine had to have some routine blood work done but due to the late hour it had to be at Winchester Hospital and I accompanied her there. While in the check-in area the lady working there, who was very nice, mentioned how she was looking forward to her daughter’s soccer practice late this afternoon (4:30-6PM) in the local area. “They said it’ll be sunny and 60!”. After asking her where she got that (I knew the answer anyway) I informed her to expect an overcast sky, a chill, and possibly some light rain, but with a little luck they’d get through most of the practice without light rain. The light rain started here close to 6 so they did indeed get through most of the practice dry, but without sun and definitely with a chill. Damn weather apps.

  22. TK what is the biggest backdoor cold front you remember? Certainly the one coming this weekend will be a strong one.

  23. TK, thanks again for the great job you’re doing as moderator. I have always appreciated it. There’s a healthy diversity of opinion here, and that’s not easy to managed.

    Nevertheless, I must say I’m so dismayed by some of the comments above that I’ll be taking a WHW break. Accusatory or personal affronts should not be part of our civil discourse.

    And, to be as rigidly polarized as we are as a nation – and even some in the WHW community – on this issue is not healthy. While everyone is entitled to an opinion, we’re not entitled to being ignorant or intolerant of the other side. Factions on the right and left of our country have politicized the discussion on climate. And that my friends is a recipe for disaster.

    1. Joshua I am sorry to hear that. I do, however, understand as I’ve taken a break a couple of times recently because of the negatives here. The saddest part is that TK is in the middle and has done an exceptional job as you eloquently stated. I return because of weather and the discussion. I also truly care for the whw family. I have connections with some outside of WHW but not with many. And I miss them…..JPD JJ. Mark. MassBay WxWatcher Philip Retrac TJ Longshot Scott Mama who I’ve decided is an angel on earth …And others who I love equally even if my old mind is limited….

      TK thank you. Truly. Much to the dismay of some, I’m not going anywhere. I just hope that Joshua and others who are missing return because they make this blog great as well

    2. Joshua, Please do not go. It is not worth it.
      Just turn the other cheek to the bullshit. 😀

      I sometime chime in, but mostly ignore.

      I one for one would dearly hate to see you go.

    1. A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. Theodore Roosevelt

  26. Sox up 6-0.
    Bruins up 3-1.

    Starting to see signs of a classic Omega Block toward the end of April. I should not need to remind anybody that pattern is common in the spring. If it forms it’s too early to tell what part of it would be impacting this area.

    2. I’m sure it will be clouds, cold and misery mist through May.
      The warm season is gonna suck eggs.

    3. Let’s hope that Omega Block sets up over us while the troughs situate on either side of NE. Unfortunately, there is only a 1 in 3 chance of that.

  27. Good morning all. So here is the question:
    “could” there be enough sleet this weekend to put Boston to or over the 60 inch
    mark for the season. NAM is really advertising it.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018041306/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_43.png

    Here is the NAM 10:1 snow, which includes sleet so the totals are BOGUS, however,
    I post to give a hint as to how much sleet there may be. I believe Boston only
    needs 0.1 inch to reach 60 inches. To me, it would appear at least possible.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018041306/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

    Thoughts?

    1. The models I have seen have advertised 32-34 degrees for Boston and 20s just over the NH/VT border so I say why not? Might as well make it an even 60″. 🙂

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