Sunday Forecast

154 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)
Your Sunday morning post has no real changes, so just updating basically the same forecast that was posted Saturday morning, and that is the unseasonable cold today including some scattered rain and sleet and a few pockets of freezing rain through this evening, a round of heavier showers sometime on Monday, and drier weather arriving later Monday night into Wednesday. A few details… Still looking for any freezing rain to be confined to mainly interior northern MA and southern NH, the heaviest rain on Monday to occur after many of the Boston Marathon runners have finished, and an upper low coming across the region Tuesday still bringing the risk of a little bit of unsettled weather. The middle of next week will feature a split with high pressure and fair weather Wednesday and an arriving low bringing unsettled weather Thursday. Updated forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Scattered sleet, rain, and pockets of freezing rain favoring interior northern MA and southern NH. A small accumulation of sleet possible. Temperatures steady 32-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain possibly mixed with sleet early. Temperatures rise slightly to 34-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of light rain/drizzle morning. Rain showers likely during the afternoon, some possibly heavy especially late-day including the chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 40-48 north central MA and southwestern NH, 48-55 elsewhere but may spike to 55-62 interior southern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to SE, may shift to S in some southern areas later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with rain showers early then partly cloudy. Lows 37-43. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers of rain possibly mixed with snow. Highs 44-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)
Active but mostly progressive pattern with another 1 or 2 low pressure systems bringing wet weather threats. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)
Transition to a more amplified pattern with slower-moving weather systems. Additional unsettled weather is likely to impact the region at some point during this period but there is a better chance of at least a brief warm-up especially prior to unsettled weather.

154 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. It’s actually light snow, just went outside to check…pretry neat for this deep into april, but let’s get some 70s soon, please

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Not doing a freakin thing here. NOTHING. But then TK indicated the precip
    would be more to the North.

    Except for TK, I believe we were led astray by other forecasters. It doesn’t look
    like it will do ANYTHING all day in Boston. I suppose that is a good thing, but
    I wanted to see some April sleet. AIN’T happening.

    Before I retired last night, the HRRR indicated NO Sleet in Boston. Unless something changes, Looks like it was spot on. Shows nothing until late tonight/early tomorrow
    and then it is rain except inland.

    Forecast animation:

    https://imgur.com/a/4LyRf

    Btw, down to 36 here in JP. Not as low as I expected and it took MUCH longer
    to get here than I expected.

  6. Euro says dry today.

    BTW, Euro says watch out for the 19th,20th. Could be “some” SNOW in the
    air then. 😀

        1. Gone by next run!! Seriously the past four times there has been snow predicted I swear they’ve gone away. There was one point that marathon monday had close to a foot of snow predicted.

  9. Thank you, TK

    Quiet here. Busy wind in the mid to high teens. Wunder says north wind. Not sure what it is seeing as it is ESE

    1. Those wind readings can be momentary and if it’s variable it may have shifted slightly and been tagged when it was north for a few seconds, even if the predominant direction is elsewhere. Here, my wind is NNE and has been all morning.

      1. Both flags had been blowing in same direction for a while. It shifted a bit ago to ENE. I did a recheck with my compass. Do wind directions come from true north or magnetic north

    1. I drove by a car coated with ice and icicles like it had been stored in a freezer, but it didn’t look like it was natural as in from the weather. It was parked in a McD’s parking lot and had been coated with water from some way other than the sky. Still scratching my head over that one. I wish I had gotten a photo.

  12. mobile. what is falling is so light, not showing on radar. It is snizzle. That is frozen drizzle off of the ocean. it would be drizzke, except low levels are cold enough to freeze the drizzle. and it is intermittent.

  14. Going to keep an eye on Tuesday night. Trough has to swing through here and it may be cold enough for a burst of accumulating snow (minor) for parts of the region. If it took place it would just melt after that.

  16. Regarding Monday, I don’t think we’ll have an all-day heavy rain. I think it will be an all-day drizzle / light rain, but we should have 3 or 4 waves of heavier showers driven by the warm air just above and the approaching cold front between noon and 9PM. One or 2 of these waves may have thunder embedded. We may also never fully get into the warm sector again especially Boston area northward as that colder air will be wedged in nicely at the surface. As is often the case with these types of systems, especially winter & spring, we have to wait from the front from the west to clear it all out. Problem is (see comment above), behind that front comes a lot of cold air aloft and instability through Tuesday evening.

          2. Yes they do. I get some at Water Country every year on August 26 (or close to that date). 😉

  19. Thanks TK.

    It’s downright ugly out here in Plymouth, NH this morning. A solid coating of sleet. Temperatures way down in the mid 20s, so even the main roads are treacherous. However, precip is letting up here as well, so we should get some improvement for the afternoon. Heavier burst of sleet/freezing rain tonight into tomorrow morning. 12z NAMs are very nasty looking.

  20. TK – Barry mentioned accumulating snow Thursday then flurries Friday morning. Could that include Boston as well or restricted to well N/W?

    1. I didn’t see him this morning so I’m not sure if he specifically referred to any area or not.

      1. You know something is being generated in the lowest levels when it’s described as bad and it’s showing up at 5 DBZ on radar.

  23. Hello again.
    Earlier, there was definitely snizzle. But just a few minutes ago it sure looked
    like SNOW with small flakes, but I swear on a stack of bibles I saw bigger flakes mixed in. This is clearly ocean stuff, so Even if it is too warm above 5,000 feet, is it possible
    for snow flakes to form at a level under the warmer layer and actually fall as snow here.
    I believe that to be the case. 😀

    1. No. It’s just ocean moisture + cold air (just cold enough in pockets for the low level snow, which I didn’t have in the forecast, miscalculating the temps at that level by literally 1 or 2 degrees).

    1. I went back to see Barry’s forecast. He mentioned NW of Boston for the flakes late Thursday. So my assumption is NW of Boston means…NW of Boston, not Boston. 😉

        1. At the moment I lean a bit milder than he does but I can see it as being a scenario that could take place, yes.

  26. The snow pile in my brother’s back yard, nicknamed Mt. Tuukka (after his dog who loves playing in it), melted away yesterday, April 14. This is the latest date of the last several years for the disappearance of this snow pile which my brother builds yearly by shoveling snow into the same pile from the same area of his driveway as each event occurs.

    The dates of Mt. Tuukka’s expiration the last few years were as follows…
    2015: April 10
    2016: April 11
    2017: April 10
    2018: April 14

    1. Interesting that it took almost a week longer than in 2015, considering half/double the total seasonal amount however one wants to look at it. 😉

  28. Geez, The sox are playing today. I feel badly for the fans in the stands.
    OUCH!

    If I had tickets I would NOT go today!!!!!! Of course, I would NEVER buy tickets for
    games this time of year. Never!!!

  30. In spite of frozen precip falling, radar is showing all “green”.

    I was sooo looking forward to being “in the pink” today, so to speak. 😉

      1. Depends on what mode / setup the radar you are looking at is in. They are not all automatically color coded.

            1. I only use the site for radar. It suits my purposes actually. I just need a general update of the current location of precip and intensity. 🙂

  31. Been snowing in Sutton for a couple of hours. It is that fine snow that looks like fog from a distance. Not sticking. And I am thoroughly enjoy it…and suspect my sad twin is also

  32. Look at this radar loop showing ocean stuff moving NE to SW and a bit
    of synoptic stuff moving SW to NE. Pretty cool.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.33260869565217394&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=380.45751633986924&centery=310.6535947712417&transx=-19.542483660130756&transy=70.65359477124173&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25396994&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      1. No. I think it has a poor handle on the overall synoptic pattern at the moment. It happens from time to time and takes a few runs to readjust.

        I’m not really looking at specific events more than a few days out right now, just monitoring the medium range models for overall performance and handling of the pattern as I think we have 2 major pattern transitions coming up in the next 30 days.

        1. Please tell me one of those will be some warmer weather?
          Good god it has to warm up sometime. Unless this is 1816 redux

  35. Red Sox win again! They can use tomorrow off before their west coast trip. 🙂

    Good the Celts won as well. 🙂

    1. I love West Coast trips. Something about hearing late night games on the radio. 🙂

      Of course it’s more nostalgic in mid summer when I think of my mom having it on. I used to be up pretty late as a little kid. I was child #5. The rules were very relaxed by then. 😉

  36. I’m the opposite. I hate hate west coast games. When you get up at 4:30 to go to work, late night baseball does not work.

    1. At least these days we have a host of ways to watch highlights or full game replays. We didn’t have that option in the 1970s (other than brief news highlights). 😉

  37. A little crude short range analysis this afternoon along with a verification of the thoughts of less precipitation today leads me to believe the following…
    * The less vs. more continues for a few more hours.
    * A steady batch of rain/sleet (pockets of freezing rain in aforementioned areas) occurs before to shortly after midnight.
    * Return to more drizzle than anything pre-dawn through mid morning with occasional periods of mainly light rain.
    * Most of the elite runners will be finished with the marathon before the heavier rain waves arrive, but there may be isolated briefly heavier showers as the warm air works a little closer to the surface and we start encountering a little more triggering with more warm depth to work with above a shallow layer of cold air.
    * Heaviest 1 or 2 waves of rain will occur after 3PM but before 9PM, and at least one of them may be pretty potent including thunder.
    * Winds will not be as strong as expected.
    * Rainfall totals (overall) will be less than consensus forecasts for the region.

    Even more crude short-to-medium range analysis leads me to these thoughts…
    * Clouds dominant Tuesday and still have to watch for that sneaky snow burst at night.
    * Pick of the week: Wednesday, but it will be breezy.
    * Thursday’s low pressure system will be a junior version of tomorrow’s.
    * Friday’s weather will be driven by cold air aloft and probably contain a lot of clouds, a gusty wind, and a fair amount of scattered showers.
    * Next weekend will be a split decision: Nice Saturday, not so nice Sunday (Earth Day).

    And a still even more crude examination of things in the longer range lead me to these ideas…
    * Current pattern is good for the balance of April but may flip to omega preceded by a couple very warm days near the end of the month.
    * First half of May is omega block driven but that does not necessarily mean we end up on the nasty side the entire time, although climatology says the position of ridge & trough means we are more likely to be on the foul weather side than the fair weather side.
    * Summer-feeling intervals starting in the second half of May. Watch for a ridge first in western Canada. “But wait, a ridge in western Canada means cold weather in the eastern US!” Not always. I’ll get into this more later…

  38. Mother’s Day. That’s my “we better have done warmer weather” day. Before then, any descent weather is gravy.
    MD is on May 13 this year.

    1. I’ll go out on a limb (given the current pattern and upcoming pattern) and say we’ll have a few 70+ days and maybe a sneaky 80 interior by then.

          1. Most of us can’t …or at least have those days…but oddly the rest of us read it as intended so it is a win win….of sorts 🙂

            1. As much as I love the current pattern (yup I’m crazy I know) I would love a couple nice warm days to walk the lake in Wakefield. I’m overdue for a warm walk. But patience will pay off and before April is over.

              1. Oh no. I meant his typing errors.

                I would love warm days to be out and listen to the world. But also patience is something I have learned. I was never a patient person. It is one of the many gifts Mac left me

                1. Oh yes I got that! My comment should have been more general rather than a reply to yours. Funny stuff. 🙂

  39. Wow, they have already cancelled tomorrow mornings Red Sox game. Might want to wait till tomorrow morning to see how the rain will shake out, but hey what do I know. The Weather Channel app is never wrong…

    1. I have a sneaky feeling they may have been able to get that in as they will often play in drizzle.

      Can’t rule out a few batches of rain moving through but I don’t know… I think it was a bit early to pull the plug on it.

    2. Perhaps, it makes it easier for the hundreds trying to get to Fenway in the middle of a marathon. Assuming they would want to plan ahead a bit

      2. I still think it’s early. I know everybody that goes to this game and/or the marathon would know what to expect on this particular day. And this is not like a school cancellation. I realize it’s a late morning first pitch scheduled but having worked for the company that gave the Red Sox their weather for years, we would never have advised them to cancel a game the day before, and definitely not with the information that is currently available. But I guess they thought otherwise this time. 🙂

        1. You may both be correct…..but then again maybe not. I figure they have reasons we are not aware of and I’m trying to see the other side. I figure those in the decision making line for public events, schools, etc or a media met have enough playing Monday morning QBs so I would like to be at least one in their corner.

          1. Well either way they made the call so we’ll see when the make-up date is. This is now only the 5th time that game has been postponed.

  40. Interesting to note, a tornado warning was just issued in northeast Ohio. The “storm” it was issued for does not appear to contain any lightning. This system has produced plenty of classic severe weather on its warm side, but what’s over Ohio now is more like what SNE be dealing with tomorrow afternoon. It’ll be a tremendously high shear environment, but very little if any instability. SPC just has a general thunder risk for the region tomorrow. We’ll see what happens. Definitely will be interested to see if they actually confirm a tornado with the storm in Ohio.

  41. I’m with Ace. I think given the forecast they wanted to get out of here early and get out to the west coast where it’s warmer. They play Baltimore several more home series to make up the game. Why play in this mess when you can make that game up when it’s warmer.

      1. haha! Temporarily anyway. They will progress back to a ridge again just after midweek.

  43. Make up game with Balmer is May 17th. Turns a 3 game series into a 4 game series.
    First time the Patriots Day game has been postponed since 1984.

      1. April 1984 was a little on the cool/wet side overall. There were a lot of days in the 40s & 50s but a handful in the lower 60s. A notable cold air mass came in on April 9-10 with April 9 stuck in the 30s all day and a little rain/snow on April 10.

        There was one spike of summer-preview warmth with Boston reaching 82 on April 30.

  44. Wow, thunder and lightning just reported with sleet in western MA. That is a big time surprise. Obviously some instability up there somewhere.

    2. The atmosphere is a layer cake but there is a nice warm layer above that surface cold and below some upper cold. So there you have it. That particular cell can produce both sleet and hail which would be fairly rare to see.

  46. Interesting… when temp was 35 we had snow/snizzle.
    Temp now 33 on the dot with a steady Drizzle, wet not white.

    Looks like some synopitic SLEET on the way soon.

  47. 71F with a dew point of 66F here in Kitty Hawk, NC. South wind pretty steady !!

    Starting to monitor the squall line to our west.

    1. That’s quite a line. Enjoy every second of your vacation….from the photos I can tell you are….and be safe.

      1. Thanks Vicki !! We are having a great time. We had friends who also came down for the week on the ocean side, renting a house and that’s where we were today.

        Other friends who we are renting a house with arrived a few hours ago and we are sitting on the deck.

  48. Grandkids just came down for their nightly hug before bed. They wanted to know I’d i didn’t have power since all the lights are out. I didn’t dare tell them I’m just waiting for lightning since some of them don’t care for it so would be up all night

  49. SSFR is accumulating on deck, tables, walkway, cars, grass. Can’t see If on trees but sure,y not enough to weight them

  50. Well all the t-storm activity dissipated but translated into nice solid precip.. I had a period of moderate freezing rain & sleet with everything glazed over and mixed with partially melted large sleet pellets.

  51. Wow, has been absolutely pounding sleet the past few hours in the Hartford area. Just drove back from dinner in Glastonbury and roads were terrible, perhaps the worst driving of the winter season so far. Saw two spin outs on the way back. Unreal ice storm for mid April. We have about a half inch of sleet on the ground here and only 30.4 degrees. And to think we were all out in shorts in the 73 degree weather at my sons baseball practice yesterday!

    2. I was thinking about you a while ago and wondering what it is like in your area. I sure glad you are safe. Daughter used to do horse shows in Glastonbury which of course is way off the point.

      We probably have 1/4 inch. It’s been heavy for an hour or so but steady longer than that.

      Maybe I missed it but don’t think we’ve heard from JJ. Not sure if it stretched that far west into CT

      Radar seems to indicate it will pull away from here soon

    3. It would seem Mark that Mother Nature is making up for that “snow hole” your immediate area experienced in last month’s blizzard. 😉

      3/13/2018

      1. Looks like it is sleeting pretty good up your way now too?

        It all evens out in the end. I’m pushing 73” now on the year IMBY. Not too bad when all was said and done. I have a strong feeling this is not the last frozen precip we are going to see before April is over either

        1. Yes it was on a Tuesday Vicki. This year May 10 is on a Thursday. Who knows if that will have any significant meaning? 🙂

          I keep forgetting that May 10 is TK’s “safe” date for no more snow regardless. 😉

          1. Oh I’m not trying to be a wise-ass… I am literally not ruling out snow until quite late this season. When I see Canada with that much cold and snowcover, we’re fair game for highly anomalous weather events, such as freezing rain and sleet in mid April. If it snowed after May 1, I would not be surprised in the least.

  53. Roads were just treated. The job they do here is as good as it gets. Until I saw roads in the trucks lights, I didn’t realize there was a solid coating

  54. Heavy wind blown sleet pelting the windows again and temp holding steady at 30.5
    Going to be pushing an inch of sleet before long. This is nuts!

  56. I’m sick of this beyond words. Had to put my truck in 4WD this morning to get out of the driveway.

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