Thursday Forecast

132 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)
A surface front will approach from the northwest today then situate itself so it sits just north of the region through most of Friday before pushing to the south to just south of New England during Saturday before stopping there for the remainder of this period. A couple waves of low pressure will ripple along this front during the next several days. While we’re on its warm side, we’ll have the chance of showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon through Friday night. On its cooler side, a few periods of rain are possible during Sunday. A weak area of high pressure will move in by Monday but a front still not far to the south and weak trough in the upper atmosphere will keep cloudiness around. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Any thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. More humid. Highs 68-76 South Coast, 77-85 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 67-75 South Coast, 76-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Humid evening, drier overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to WNW.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 66-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)
High pressure should bring mainly dry weather to the region May 8-9, then a couple weak disturbances and a front passing through the area should bring a few episodes of showers in the May 10-12 time frame. Temperatures variable but averaging around normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)
Brief wet weather may start this period before nicer mid spring weather arrives and a cool start turns into a warmer mid to late period.

132 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Derby weather looks mainly cloudy with about a 50% shot at passing showers. I don’t think thunderstorms will be a factor, however. Temps in the 70s.

      I’ll have my picks by this evening. 🙂 I have to do a little analysis of the field.

    2. Changed sheets from the cold season ones to the warm season ones just in time. Also turned the fan on. Love the fan, more than the AC, which is just in the living room. 🙂

      1. I sleep in a type of room that seems to trap in any and all heat and never cools down even with fans in the window. Because believe me I love a cool room with just a fan. But when you wake up feeling like you’ve just swam across the charles river… at the beginning of may… you’re wondering if this is at all an omen for the summer.

      2. I so agree about fan and open windows. The allergies I have never had are acting up so I cannot leave window as wide open as I like. I had a fan in just about every room in Framingham. Here I have one in livingroom and bedroom…..but then those are the only two rooms I use other than kitchen and it has the slider and window.

        I use light weight sheets all year and oddly the down comforter as well although that is often turned down.

        The only way I can tell winter from summer is I don’t sleep with socks 🙂 🙂 🙂

    3. C’mon. It was fine.
      I opened a window and was more than comfortable. Fell asleep in about
      2 seconds. 😀

      1. I was fine also. Just warm. I woke up at the one obligatory time and went back to sleep. No complaints. Just is what it is.

      1. CAMS

        CAM3.0 COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL (CAM)
        INTRODUCTION
        The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is the latest in a series of global atmosphere models developed at NCAR for the weather and climate research communities. CAM also serves as the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM).

        1. In this context, CAM = Convection Allowing Model. Much of the hi-res guidance like the WRFs and the HRRR are convection allowing. Global models are not.

  7. A few friends from the Dana group and I went to dinner in Medway last night. The waitress told us that they had opened their outside patio on the the earliest date so far as they usually wait until Memorial Day. The thought was that there would be a couple of days in a row of warm weather so why not. I didn’t have the heart to say it might be warm, but it also might be wet. I’m hoping they stay rain free.

      1. The 45 Restaurant. It was under a few other names but at corner of what I think is 109 by the fire station. Good food for decent prices and they have no problem with individual checks which is great with a crowd.

        1. We had our 50th class reunion there in 2015.
          The food was rather good as I recall.
          😀

      2. We spent a lot of time at Apple Knoll in Mills.. Girl my oldest rode with married son of owner recently. It is a lovely town.

        1. Not familiar with that name. Was that on Ridge street
          near the intersection of Middlesex?

          I recall there being horse shows/events at that location.

  8. TK/Others,

    If one were leaving to drive to NJ this afternoon, what would be the best time to leave Boston?

    Thanks

  9. FWIW, the latest HRRR seems to have some significant severe weather parameters this afternoon/evening from Boston Northeastward to the Coast of NH, concentrating on NE MA back to the Lowell/Lawrence areas. Something to watch.

  11. Latest update from SPC keeps the slight risk and marginal risk area the same. They did take away the 2% tornado chance and 5% hail chance in this update.

  12. I don’t know how in tune the HRRR is for today’s weather, however, the severe
    parameters it is currently spitting out has me concerned.

    The latest 13Z run is rather robust with SB CApe around 2,000 joules into
    the Boston area.

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018050313/010/sbcape.us_ne.png

    Lifted index to -6

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sbli&rh=2018050313&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    0-1KM EHI 1.6

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018050313/010/ehi01.us_ne.png

    0-3km EHI 2.4

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ehi03&rh=2018050313&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    Supercell composite 8

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=scp&rh=2018050313&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    Significant tornado 1.3

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2018050313&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    2. 14Z HRRR severe parameters have backed off somewhat. Go figure. Perhaps this fickle mode is just correcting itself?

  13. Of course the Taunton Radar is down. Why is it that it is always down
    when possible severe weather approaches. Hmmm

  14. Fire pit covered and umbrella taken down from the base. I’m ready….and probably jinxed everything.

  15. I never know why folks do not think spring is a beautiful season. The flowering trees are blooming, the grass is green, trees in general are budding and the buds are beginning to open, birds are chirping. The world is coming awake after a long winter’s sleep. Just glorious.

      1. Possibly, but it has to feel like rain to make it look like growth 😉

        Either way always feels good to me.

  16. Dp’s getting into the mid 50s.

    Compared to yesterday’s upper 30s, I’m guessing it feels even warmer out than yesterday ?

  17. I didn’t appreciate how many showers and a couple thunderstorms there are currently across northern New England.

  18. Just came in from outside.
    A couple of thoughts:

    1. I find it to be absolutely beautiful out. Humidity is up, but it’s not bad.
    2. My Car thermometer was reading 93. Logan 86 at 1PM.
    3. My weather equipment is giving me a reading of 61 for the DP. Logan DP 56.
    4. I notice that there is much cloudiness now and it is looking Dark to the West.
    5. I am IRRITATED TO HELL that the Taunton Radar is still down for maintenance
    and if it is not, then I am PISSED at Weather underground for displaying the down
    message and having no radar!()@&#*!&@*(#&!*(@&#*(!@&#*(!@&*!(*^@&*#^

      1. WSR-88D Radar Outage Notification / Free Text Message
        Issued by NWS Boston, MA

        Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
        Versions: 1 2 3 4
        626
        NOUS61 KBOX 031439
        FTMBOX

        MESSAGE DATE: MAY 03 2018 14:39:52

        KBOX RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO EQUIPMENT
        PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

    2. You do have to wonder …. is it just bad timing when the equipment fails or has the equipment been failing and someone is dropping the ball not doing proper maintenance ahead of time …….

      1. To me, it has been down WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
        too many times and way too frequently. Something is clearly WRONG. I guess it NEEDS to be replaced and of course there is no freakin money in the budget. As long as that clown is
        in the White house, there will be none!

        1. Mismanagement of the money is more like it. It’s been mismanaged for many years regardless of who is in the White House

            1. But you will have to admit, there are people in government who think this type of equipment is unnecessary.

      2. I had the exact same thought. Maintenance costs and the bottom line is now the new guide.

    1. Its been a different day for sure Mass/ME, Mass/NH border points northward.

      I wonder if any outflow boundaries will fire new convection to the south of where the main area currently sits.

      I wonder if that’s what just happened with that new cell in north-central Mass?

  21. New cell just N&W of Worcester. They’re beginning to pop. Wish we had the
    regular radar.

  28. NWS has a lot of things to take care of with a limited budget. They have to do the stuff when they can. For Boston it’s just been bad timing. They also just completed a major move, which itself has tested the ability of them to keep things going while in transition. I think they’ve done a remarkable job with the only real issue being the delay in getting NOAA weather radio back on the air.

  30. I hope nobody was expecting a widespread severe outbreak today. That was certainly never even a remote possibility. They use terms like “marginal” and “slight” risk for a reason. But around the net today I seem to be seeing people who ignored those terms and translated it in their minds to “100% chance of a widespread severe storm outbreak”. But I shouldn’t be surprised. It happens with almost every event. 🙂 I don’t mean here, I mean on the net in general.

      1. I think this crowed is very well educated enough to know better. 🙂 Just like you know it won’t be 80+ every day now, though some people are now “happy it’s summer”. Hmm. Well, it’s not summer. 🙂 So anyway.

  33. Rain has commenced here at the office. Commenced at home about 5 minutes ago. 😀

      1. I thought I heard a rumble in the distance but no sign of lightening on lightning map. Although does only cloud to ground show up on it?

        1. That registers only cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. If you heard thunder it was most likely an in-cloud discharge.

          1. I thought it only showed cloud-to-ground. Thank you.

            Sky has that yellow hue to it.

  34. Very dark here in Walpole but it looks like the action is staying juuust to the north

  37. Axis #1 is now lined up near and south of the Pike as evident by radar. Most of them are showers with some embedded thunder. A couple boundaries will be sitting around all evening and into tomorrow so we’ll have off and on threats of passing activity throughout. That’s why I kept the stuff in the forecast for tonight as well. Again, thunderstorms, nevermind severe, will be the exception, rather than the rule.

  39. Vicki… These are my 1 2 3 for the Derby:

    Win: Horse #5, Audible, at 8-1 odds.
    Place: Horse #10, My Boy Jack, at 30-1 odds.
    Show: Horse #15, Instilled Regard, at 50-1 odds.

      1. I just do it for fun. I’m not placing any actual bets. And yes I like 2 long shots this time. Anything goes in the Derby with a big field.

        1. My mom’s cousin is a retired jockey from Dorchester. Used to bet when he was riding in the Derby but haven’t wagered a bet since. 🙂

  40. I really think a lot of weekend forecasts are too optimistic, somewhat for Saturday, but especially for Sunday.

  41. Interesting how much more humid it is north of the Mass Pike than it is to the south. Places like Plymouth & Providence has dew points in the mid to upper 50s while areas to the north are in the mid to upper 60s.

  42. Thank you, TK.

    Smells like summer outside. Bugs and bees are out. Dogwoods are flowering and the cherry blossoms look especially healthy this year. The ephemeral but lovely light green hue emanating from budding leaves is visible in many of the trees. It’s remarkable how much spring has sprung in the last couple of days. It’s almost as if it’s making up for lost time as the `winter’ to `summer’ transition makes its usual presence felt in SNE. What never ceases to amaze me is the dramatic seasonal change in these parts. Just 1 month ago I walked through the Boston Common and everything was still dormant. No insects around, and very few birds chirping. Now, everything is in full bloom, budding, and revealing spring colors (not my favorite colors by the way – shades of pink, yellow, and white are in fact my least favorite, but oh well, spring light green is very special). Birds are yapping away, and even people have come out of `hibernation.’

  43. Logan DP is 64 as of 4PM. YUCK! Of course, I am sure the rain contributed to that.

      1. Thanks!
        And they certainly are. I love them.

        As for the picture, I have no idea how the odd effect was achieved. I’m still learning the oddities of the Google Pixel 2 camera. It’s kinda neat. It has yielded me some interesting photos so far.

        Here are 2 of them, the first from Woburn last Saturday night and the second from Nashua NH in the 3AM hour of Tuesday.

        Both of them include the moon but looking quite different.

        Woburn: https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/31431369_10156365577272265_976919821812457342_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=60721737c9d55e6b0a1cedc9cf47c628&oe=5B974C5A

        Nashua: https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/31699102_10156370637097265_1381669577301164032_o.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=d25cd2afd89c50295a7ddb14d7b2af3c&oe=5B9C1B3E

    2. Awesome photo.

      I learned a ton about bees from a local bee guy in my area last year. They are fascinating. Turns out solar arrays are very helpful to them

  45. thanks for your picks, TK.

    We wager $1 for win place show at kim’s Derby party. We just divide at end and do not use percents. I give money to the kids.

    7 – Justify
    5 – Audible
    16 – Magnum moon

    My long shot is Free Drop Billy for Mac’s dad #2

      1. LOL!!! I want that breeze back as well. You could feel the increase in the humidity today but certainly nothing oppressive.

  48. Pictures of Woburn and Nashua are great, TK. The first one is like a legend of sleepy hollow picture. The second looks like you took it somewhere in Scotland with the fog.

    1. That church in the Woburn photo is the tallest all wooden building in the eastern US.

  49. First severe thunderstorm warning in CT of 2018 goes to southern Fairfield County

    1. I just saw that. This line will be through here before it can find any lightening 🙁

  50. Per the 18z GFS, I’ll be graduating on May 19 in near 100 degree heat 😉

    Probably exaggerated, but the back half of the month continues to look very warm to me.

    1. Probably overdone, I agree. And I also agree with the warm pattern, but somewhere in here we have to watch for a sneaky cut off system.

    2. on a Saturday? Graduation for me is the 25th This up coming week is the last week of actual classes, but next week is finals.

  51. I found it surprising that Logan hit 90 today with so much cloud cover but could only manage 89 yesterday with full sunshine.

    1. It wasn’t really much of a difference but if you want to know what caused it, look at the wind speed both days (which both were basically west). Stronger today, more downsloping air making it to the coast. Enough for 1 degree higher despite more cloudiness.

  52. Was doing some work outside on the patio this afternoon, and happy to report, the abundance of Honey Bees and bubble bees and not the carpenter bees and the dam hornets. Won’t see the wasps probably for another week or so. But those suckers eat mosquitoes despite them being jerks they are necessary.

    1. I experienced a close encounter with a wasp 2 weeks ago but I haven’t seen any since.

  54. The Celtics tonight accomplished what the Bruins could not…up 2-0 in their series. 🙂

      1. Nobody is do or die. Too many people count the Bruins out before they’re eliminated. If they lose, they’ll be down 3-1. It’s a best of 7.

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