Friday Forecast

66 Comments

6:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)
We remain in the warm, summer-like air mass for one more day until a cold front crosses the region tonight. There will be a threat of showers and a few thunderstorms today, but the severity of any storms should be limited by abundant cloud-cover through midday, then the risk of storms should be muted by drying air by the time the actual front arrives this evening. A brief shot of northwesterly flow at the surface will cool it down as the weekend arrives, but the front that goes by is never going to get very far to the southeast of the region, and will serve as the running board for some additional cloudiness on Saturday and eventually some areas of rain Sunday as a wave of low pressure moves up along the front, passing southeast of the region. High pressure will finally push it all further south early next week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a couple episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny remainder of day with isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-76 South Coast, 77-86 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm evening. Lows 53-59. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-72 Cape Cod, 72-77 elsewhere. Wind W 15-25 MPH morning, diminishing afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 51-57. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain possible. Highs 62-68. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)
First half of period runs risk of unsettled weather due to a combination of low pressure from the south and a front from the northwest. Later period should feature fair weather with high pressure moving in. This particular period of forecast is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)
If the 6-10 day period goes as expected, this period could start with a brief shot of very warm air, a shower/thunderstorm threat, then a turn to more seasonable weather.

66 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A light rain is falling here in the city.

    May the Fourth be with you!

  5. I broke down and turned on the AC. Not hot by any means, but the house is wet.

    I continues to amaze me how quickly an entire house can react to weather changes. The door that would not stay closed just a week ago is now swelled enough to hook on the catch.

    1. I did the same thing last night. Flipped the HVAC over from winter to summer and turned the AC on. It was unbearable trying to fall asleep and the temp upstairs was pushing 80. Fan wasn’t helping either. We hit 90 here at the house each of the last two days which is impressive for this time of year. I am normally 5-7 degrees cooler than whatever it is in Hartford but not this time!

      My floorboards in the upstairs hallway were also cracking like crazy…always happens with big temperature changes.

  6. All this rain playing havoc with baseball games. Out of 8 games for the boys, 7 have been cancelled.

  7. Thanks TK.

    SPC has gone all the way up to enhanced risk for much of NY and VT today, with a surrounding slight risk area. Very strong wind fields and very strong forcing will be present later today. The only question is instability. Looking at morning satellite and the trends on the HRRR, I have some doubts that higher instability will be realized. However, if there is more sunshine through early afternoon though, it could set the stage for an unusual confluence of favorable ingredients for severe weather this afternoon in New York and central New England. Will be watching very closely.

    1. This is amazing. Thank you for sharing. I am so happy for the ski areas. And of course the folks who take advantage of them.

  9. Thank you TK

    I may have to take a run up to Killington the weekend after this 🙂 🙂

    1. Yeah, I think they’ll probably go tornado as opposed to severe t-storm on the watch.

  12. SPC has raised the severe probabilities for northern NY/VT even more in their latest outlook. Still in the enhanced risk category, but they’ve a hatched area to the 30% wind risk indicating potential for high end damaging wind. They’ve also added a 10% tornado area, which usually signifies the potential for a few tornadoes with the chance for a strong tornado. With the exception of very rare “outbreak” days, those are pretty much the maximum probabilities you’ll ever see SPC issue for the Northeast.

      1. Thank you, JPD.

        Temp 81. Was mostly sun a bit ago but some clouds moving in. Still some blue sky. 64 dp. Wind advisory from 11 pm to 7 am

        Wind Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to 7 am EDT
        Saturday…

        The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Wind
        Advisory, which is in effect from 11 PM this evening to 7 am EDT
        Saturday.

        * Location… western and central Massachusetts.

        * Winds… west 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

        * Timing… strongest winds will occur after midnight with a brief
        period of gusts to 50 mph.

        * Impacts… winds this strong are capable of Downing small tree
        limbs and branches, possibly causing isolated power outages.

          1. ha!

            Actually, me too. Allergies or no, I’m sleeping with my window open so I can hear

  14. It’s after 2PM and both the Albany and Burlington radars are pretty quiet.
    I guess the threat is more towards late evening????

      1. The slight is creeping this way too. Yuk.

        I’m afraid to ask…..is this mostly during nighttime hours when we cannot see anything?

  19. You don’t see 10% chance for tornado to often in Northeast and that the cases for northern parts of NY State and Vermont. Reading the mesoscale discussion looks like a tornado watch is coming for those areas.

  20. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Certainly an enhanced tornado threat in VT/N NY. If instability develops a significant tornado is not out of the question given the kinematics.

  22. The Mesoscale Discussion regarding a possible tornado watch was issued 55 minutes
    ago. I am wondering if they will let that expire and not issue the watch afertall and perhaps replace it with a Severe Thunderstorm watch.

    Discussion valid: Valid 041818Z – 041945Z

    That means until 3:45 PM. So they have another 1/2 hour to issue or not or perhaps
    issue another MD.

  23. You got to love weather. Monday its on the chilly side like most of April was. Fast forward couple days tornado watch for most of Vermont and parts of Northern Upstate NY.

  24. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Killington is open today. Take some turns on the mountain while under a tornado watch. Can’t do that very often!

  25. Nice little fact from SPC
    For the inquiring minds, this is first SPC 10% tornado forecast to include any part of New Hampshire or Vermont since a Moderate Risk on 9/8/12. Other 10% tornado risks since 2010 include 5/26/11 & 6/6/10.

  27. Latest HRRR model really bullish on the supercell and significant tornado parameters for most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

  28. While no severe or tornado watch up wind advisory up for a good portion of MA with the exception of eastern areas from 11pm tonight to 7am Sat

  31. I think were going to see numerous severe weather reports for parts of NY State Vermont and New Hampshire.

  32. we got something cooking near Potsdam in upstate NY. Some signs of rotation

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=CXX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.24347826086956523&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=933.9285714285713&centery=289.28571428571433&transx=533.9285714285713&transy=49.285714285714334&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25424443&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=CXX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0S&frame=0&scale=0.24347826086956523&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=933.9285714285713&centery=289.28571428571433&transx=533.9285714285713&transy=49.285714285714334&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25424444&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Nothing really serious just yet, but that cell is intensifying. I’d watch this baby.

  34. I didn’t re-read my discussion above but since late yesterday it was apparent that most of the showers would be this morning and benign, and that what got to southeastern New England with the front would be late evening and probably falling apart. The favorable severe weather parameters reside far NW today.

    However, keep an eye on the front itself because during and after its passage wind gusts of 40+ MPH may cause minor wind damage.

  35. You can feel the air changing….slightly but a change Down to 80. I’d tell u the DP but heaven forbid I have service 5 feet from the house

  36. Impressive line from VT to NY. Lots of tstorm warnings. I don’t see any tornado thankfully. Looks stronger in VT than NY but I don’t have the expertise to know for sure.

  38. I think the tornado threat is by the boards and I think that the line of storms has about 1 hour maximum left before it starts to lose punch and dissipate. A few showers may survive the trip to the Boston area.

  39. As promised by TK….southern end of line weakens. My hope is to sit out and at least see some lightening in distance

    1. Marchand is talented, but off. Reminds me of Suarez, the soccer star from Uruguay (and FC Barcelona) who couldn’t stop biting opponents. Suarez had to undergo treatment, which evidently has helped.

      1. alot of professional sports like football and hockey end up having major brain injuries and sometimes they do not find out until afterwards which make it worse.

        There are sports that have injuries all the time but do not retrieve head injuries.

    1. It was for wind, which was still quite strong along the outflow boundary. Even after the thing was gone we’ve had gusts over 40 MPH here. It’s really strong right now as of 12:30AM.

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