Thursday Forecast

71 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)
Continuing to make fine-tuning adjustments on what has been a tough forecast. Marine layer in place today will erode as low pressure offshore moves away and a cold front approaches from the west, bringing a more southerly air flow later, but this front will bring a shower threat this evening before a sliver of high pressure brings nice weather for Friday. But rapidly-moving systems means the front, not far to the south, tries to comes back as a warm front Saturday and makes it only enough for unsettled weather but not really enough to bring warm air in. In fact, the front gets pushed back to the south by high pressure Sunday, although clearing may be delayed for a while so unsure of how much sun appears for Mother’s Day afternoon. The high should push far enough south for fair weather Monday, and somewhat of a warm-up, with coastal areas still vulnerable to typical cooler air. Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of fog and low clouds giving way to sun then clouds returning from the west late. Highs 60-68 coast, 68-76 elsewhere probably occurring mid to late afternoon. Wind light variable early, then S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain late. Lows 51-58. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring morning and midday. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 interior. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with morning showers. Partial clearing afternoon. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the lower to middle 60s coast, upper 60s to middle 70s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)
Will again have to watch the position of a frontal boundary during this period as we could end up on either side of it, and also its position determining how many wet weather chances there are. Remaining vague and low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)
Still uncertain in the pattern here as well, but leaning toward a risk of some wetter weather at some point, favoring late in the period.

71 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Had a touch of rain overnight at my house. Tipped the gauge at 0.01 inch. 😀

  8. Wow. It’s been a grey, cool and damp morning here in Sudbury. Then, in about less than 1/2 hr. ago – bright and sunny! Last few days, sunny or cloudy, trees are all green and everything seems to have blossomed into pretty pastel colors. A typical spring day.

      1. I will try to push the clouds out to sea for you. Winds are out of the south here – still feels chilly. Wonder if Boston has an east wind?

    2. Sudbury is a beautiful town, Rainshine. When I was a kid I lived in Needham, on the Dover line. My mother used to take us on drives through the countryside – she was antiquing, and would bring us along – out through Dover (first stop was the old country store where I’d get penny candy – it’s a building right along the railroad tracks) to Sudbury, South Natick, Sherborn, Holliston. To this day, I love those back roads, in every season, but autumn is the best. The roads haven’t changed all that much since the early 1970s. And I am conservative in this way as I like things that don’t change much. My kids call me “Mr. Nostalgia.”

        1. Have lived here going on 9 yrs. and we still sometimes get lost driving on these roads – they tend to look alike. One day I was driving from Hudson back to Sudbury and somehow ended up on a little road in the middle of an apple orchard! Not sure which one it was, ‘though.

            1. Probably. Stow is the next town to the west of us. I was within 10 mins. or so from home and lost! 🙂

  9. Yes, we love Sudbury. We have lived here since 2009. Before that, we lived in Framingham (now a city) for a long time. (50 yrs. for me). And before that, we both came from the south shore. Sudbury is nice. Quaint, lots of history and pretty. But most of my memories are of Framingham. A few from the south shore. I love the ocean and we haven’t had much of a chance to get there lately. But at this point, we are staying here. Hoping this summer we get to Hull (husband is from there) and other towns on the south shore. Also Rockport, ‘though it’s on the north shore. My family and then my husband and me took day trips there every summer.

    1. All good. All those towns and cities. It’s what makes Massachusetts unique, in my opinion. Such a plethora of beautiful and interesting locales, from Newburyport to North Adams to Great Barrington to Provincetown, and dozens and dozens of points in between.

  10. All the trees are in over drive right now, terrible allergies. I have some pretty strong stuff that I use but I am still feeling it.

    1. Sorry to hear.

      It doesn’t matter how much pollen is floating around in the Spring,
      it doesn’t affect me in the slightest. However, put me near ragweed or
      Golden Rod in August and I am doomed. My eyes used to get closed shut
      with crud from the allergies. So yes, I know the misery and I feel for you.

      Best of luck.

      1. thats an other time I suffer but its nothing like spring, I been hospitalized because of my allergies and a regular cold because I could barely breeze and thats when I was extremely healthy, can only imagine now since I gained some. lol

    2. Me, too, this year. And that’s unusual for me. I’m taking a nightly Zyrtec, which seems to help a little.

      Hope your allergies abate. Rain usually helps temporarily.

    3. I seem to have allergies year round. But at this time of year, it’s worse. It looks so pretty outside – and many times I take a walk and later pay for it by all the sneezing and feeling cruddy.

  12. 83° dp59° here in Sarasota. Love bugs all over the place. Locals love the low humidity for so late in May.

  13. Need a little help on timing.

    I know it’s out there a couple of days, but does anyone have an idea when the precip will start / stop on Saturday. Not looking for a specific time … just an idea.

    Thanks.

      1. True, but the GFS has had this system for several runs.
        Doesn’t mean it will happen, just interesting that it is there.

      2. Pre-season and post-season tropicals do happen. The lines we draw on a calendar are too rigid, TBH.

        1. If it occurs, absolutely, at least part-way. But the weather during the next 2 weeks is quite hard to forecast. I’ve yet to figure out which side of the boundary is going to be the dominant player here.

            1. Haha! The most you can hope for this evening is an isolated shower that happens to pass over you.

  15. There is going to be a hell of a cold air mass in central and east central Canada next week that may play a roll in the weather around here at some point, at least indirectly.

  17. I think the setup next week, with the very cold air in Canada but much warmer air to the south, is going to favor an axis or two of well above normal precipitation somewhere over the eastern half of the US. It’s very hard to pin down the details right now though. Probably safe to say that our weather will be a little more “interesting” than it has been for the past couple weeks. You can only get so many perfect 10 days around here in the spring. We’ve been racking them up lately.

    I still think May ends top 10 warm around here. We’re well on track so far. We may fall behind during the next 7-10 days, but I’m still looking for a warm end of month as well.

  18. Late season chill indeed up north. This Environment Canada forecast for Churchill Falls confirms what TK alluded to: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nl-21_metric_e.html

    I also noticed this on the projected NECN weather maps last night for this weekend and beyond. As lows were crossing southern Canada, you could see large swaths of snow on the backside to the north and west.

  19. Also, parts of Nunavut are still around 0F during the day. Eureka was Canada’s and perhaps the northern hemisphere’s cold spot today with a temperature of -21C.

    I’ve always wondered why it can be so cold there now – 6 weeks before the summer solstice – but it’s never that cold 6 weeks after the solstice. Is this a function of warmer surrounding waters?

  20. A little chilly for me. Wish it would warm up a little. Not sure I buy a Warner than normal May.

    A little venting.
    That channel 7 weather app might as well not exist. They update the 7 day forecast maybe 2 times a week.
    The BZ website is awful as well. Hard to navigate and will not work on an iPhone worth a damn. Trying to find the 7 day forecast is like finding a needle in a hay stack.

    1. Not quite sure what more you’re looking for. This May has been among the warmest on record so far. Saturday will be one anomalously cold day in a long string of near to above normal ones. I know you hate the climate here, but to wish what has so far been a near record warm month to be even warmer doesn’t make any sense. It’s not our climate.

  22. Yes, the climate here stinks. I hate it with every fiber of my being. July is the only month that’s half decent and even then, when it’s 60’s on July 4, I could slit my throat.

    1. New England is a heat sink. Global warming all around and we have basically a snow storm on Saturday.

  24. TK – I mentioned above May 18, 2002 wondering if anomolous chill is possible next week?

    1. It will depend on the boundary position as to whether or not we’ll be on the cold or warm side, and then the trajectory and delivery of whatever air mass we end up in for magnitude. We won’t likely see anything like 5-18-02. That was an anomalous upper low but I don’t see anything quite like that. The upper air pattern will be kind of “typical”.

  25. Blackstone, were you raised in the south?
    There are reasons for our weather here being so lousy at long increments. Also with global climate change, there is a reason why the climate scientists say climate change and not global warming unless they are strictly talking temperature for overall global temperature. The overall warming of the earth is leading to more extremes. The more rapid increase from normal at the arctic. loss of sea ice have decreased overall cold in the north. This in turns weakens the jet stream allowing for more -ao situations. sending cooler air down. Also weaker jet stream = longer time that an air mass is in place. been talking to a few climate scientists as of late, Looking at implementing these different parameters into my future research. If there was a climate science minor, that was at my school I would of probably gotten the minor lol.

  26. I like this weather, because it truly is spring-like. It’s the in-between weather we sometimes (often) miss in Boston. I’m not a fan of 40s and low 50s, but 60s (and sunny) is a treat if spring is your thing.

    Blackstone, you’ll get your heat and humidity, even here in Boston. Less than down south, and also less than the Mid-Atlantic. But, we definitely experience lengthy periods of heat and humidity in Boston every summer.

    1. I hate living here, but it’s where work is so I put up with it. I’d much rather live in a warmer climate. I do better in the south in general. I like the people and the way of life better outside of here. I dont belong here. I feel like a fish out of water.

        1. Ahhh I know how to cheer you up. Since 1900 MA has had more years of republicans as governor and senators than Dems.

  28. Blackstone, I like people in the south, too. And I don’t care if a state is red, blue, green, or pink, it’s the people and scenery that make the state great. I am a left of center person, but have always enjoyed the company of my mother’s extended family, all of whom are deeply conservative and most of whom live in the south. I remember fondly my trips to the hills and mountains of North Carolina, where my relatives used to rib me about being a liberal. All fine with me. It’s better to get along than to be at odds with one another.

    I also enjoy being in a place like San Francisco where anything goes and it’s wacko liberal.

    I find New England socially rather conservative, especially away from the coast, but politically mostly pragmatic liberal. There are some ideologues, like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, to a degree. I don’t care much for ideologues of any political stripe. But, I mostly find liberals and independents in New England to be pragmatists, sort of like the ones I encountered in the Netherlands (which is also a socially conservative place for the most part, while being politically liberal).

    1. Good comment, Joshua. I find small towns can transcend partisanship. I currently am supporting a republican and a democrat in town who are running for selectman. It seems love for the town outweighs political party.

  29. I have friends that are Republican, democrat, muslim, Jew, Christian, Gay, straight etc. As long as the person is nice, and gives respect, I do not care how they vote, what religion, race etc they are. I love to travel and have to say, every place is different, with different people, different ways of life, music and different yummy food. Favorite places. St.Johns/St.thomas. Cape Cod. Maine, Vermont/NH. Belize. Upstate NY state., Virginia. North Carolina/Florida. I know in the tropics many people say stay near the hotels and tourist areas, I am like, No I want to see the island. I never had any issues leaving the tourist areas. I have meet some of the most entertaining and fun people by going off the path.

    1. I’ll check it. I think I had a problem getting email to give me notifications on my new phone.

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