Irene – Saturday Afternoon Update

155 Comments

12:31PM

The center of Hurricane Irene is over eastern North Carolina, which is weakening the system somewhat. It maintains Category 1 hurricane intensity, however. We have seen the storm move more to the north during the morning, but that northward movement has slowed, and that indicates it was more of a track wobble. Expect the center to shift briefly to the east then take a more north northeast track, and should be partly to mostly over water just east of Norfolk, Virginia, by this evening.

The changes I am making are more in timing than intensity. I think we should see a minimal category 1 hurricane making landfall on Long Island NY, but as I now expect a little faster acceleration, this landfall will take place Sunday afternoon. I’m going to hold the same track for now, despite the NHC track being shifted a bit west. There is a trough approaching from the west but enough southwesterly flow ahead of it, though causing the hurricane to become less organized, may also kick the center a little more east with time. Its faster acceleration washes out the decrease in wind due to weakening on the east side. Because of this I will continue with the same forecast regarding wind gusts and storm surge. We may see the 8 feet becoming less likely and closer to the 4 being more of a reality, but I’ll leave the range the same for now, in case.

So overall, no great changes to the forecast, other than just a little faster beginning and ending. And don’t forget that strong winds are still possible on the back side as the storm moves away.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, a few possibly heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Mild and very humid. High 74-79. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of tropical showers, heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog, possibly dense at times. Low 64-69. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Tropical showers most numerous in the morning, likely heavy at times with a chance of thunderstorms as well. Brief intervals of sunshine may pop out between the downpours over the Boston area and points to the south. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind SE to S 15-25 MPH increasing to 25-45 MPH with gusts 50 MPH or higher becoming quite common, shifting more to the W during the afternoon. Hurricane-force gusts are still possible over higher elevations and mainly south-facing coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible especially from morning through mid afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain and showers ending from south to north with breaking clouds following. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH and gusty, diminishing slowly.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

155 thoughts on “Irene – Saturday Afternoon Update”

  1. Thank’ TK- Well my stuff is away but not going to lie I feel like It was a waste of time.
    We shall all see what this does tomorrow. This had a chance to really hit us hard. I wonder if deval will call of the emergency.

      1. Yea philip I know that- he is on now. but this is loosing strenght.He will keep his plan in place. I suspect I will still get the call tonight to come in tomorrow.

  2. Thanks TK for the update. I have completed my preps and am just going to sit back and watch what Irene has in store for us.

  3. It is now heading east or at least a wobble to the east, latest indications r it will be over water again in 2hrs

    1. See my reply to haterain above. The eastward movement was expected, and now it should turn back northeast to north northeast and eventually the center will be back over water again.

  4. Thanks TK for the update! I voted for you again today. I will try and vote every day.

    When does the voting period end?

  6. Thanks TK ! I pledge my vote every day as well.

    Lots of heavy showers seem to be popping up, especially around the Worcester area. Hope Sox can get at least 1 game in, they are ahead 4-2 in the 3rd inning.

  7. TK, can you give some estimates on rainfall on future updates for the duration of Irene? I have been hearing some just about right, but others way too high IMO for Boston and eastern MA. I remember Gloria very well, and Boston to Cape totals were well under a 1/2 inch.

    Keep up the great work as always! 🙂

      1. I think most of eastern MA will come in under 2 inches of rain, unless a certain area happens to hit the downpour lottery every time a band passes.

      2. I lived in Boston where I am now. There was very little rainfall but lots of wind and lost power for many hours as many in eastern MA did. I was kinda dissapointed in the rain since most forecasts at the time were for 5-10″.

          1. I grew up in Marshfield and It packed a good punch there, the schools were close for a week. Three years ago I bought a house in the next town over. It’s good to be back down here. We were living in Neponset and sold the house there. Oh sorry the next town over is Pembroke.

  8. Cape Hatteras, NC and four other eastern NC sites reporting pressures under 29.00 in, with Cape Hatteras at 28.69in.

    Elizabeth City, NC and Norfolk, VA both have easterly winds.

  11. Irene such a large system. Its hard to believe but Irene was the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Ike did back in 2008. The rest of the tropics are quiet and next week looks awesome once we get past Irene.

  12. The pressure is actually dropping in the center – go figure. Center should be over water by evening, stay just offshore, and reach Long Island by late morning Sunday.

    1. The models seemed to be onto this. I know several runs this week, the lowest pressure of the run seemed to occur around the NC Coast. Was is interesting is that, then this lowest pressure maintained all the way to landfall in Long Island. So, there could be a 950mb or so landfall in Long Island.

  13. I made this comment yesterday but I never remember a category 1 hurricane with pressure this low.

  14. Like Gloria the first half, like Bob at the end. That’s how it looks here…

    I’m stepping away from the blog for a while to put a few things away outside that are light enough to blow around in gusty winds behind a regular storm. 😉

    Also a few last minute errands before my son’s bday party tonight. I’ll be checking in, and another update will come later.

    Carry on all!

  17. Dark with rain and thunder in Sudbury now. Kind of neat sky – was dark to the south then moved northeast over here. This is real tropical weather – don’t know if this is related to Irene or just the trough/front moving back.

  18. Rain has picked up in Pembroke as well. SST good eating tonight, my wife just returned from the turkey farm. Sandwiches, tenders and turkey dinners. Now thats what I call good storm eating. Sox just covered the field, I suspect that will be it for the doubleheader- sox win if game does not continue.

    1. Oh, that sounds good….enjoy ! Heavy rain shower again and the air is so thick outside, for being 75F…its very uncomfortable.

  19. Pouring out now in Sudbury. According to TWC, this is “renegade rain”. Not exactly sure what that means – I guess you can go anywhere w/that! 🙂 Anyway, I guess it’s not good because this just makes the ground wetter before Irene gets here – not good for flooding issues and/or if we get strong winds loosening old trees. We have a lot of trees around our house – mainly Pine trees, so I am concerned with any major winds we might get.

    1. They said “Renegade Rain” because someone thought it sounded cool. It’s an outer rain band from Irene. There is now a direct connection. And the center of Irene should be over water by 6PM and pass east of Virginia Beach tonight.

  20. This morning I was watching mets and tv reporters from Long Island and it looked quite foggy like when Gloria hit us. Thick fog could very well be ours tomorrow morning just ahead of Irene. We will probably be hit by some very strong humidity soon as with most hurricanes arrivals.

    1. It’s here now- boy is it humid here. My house was cool from having the ac on yesterday, I turned it off before bed. Up till about an hour ago it was cool. I think I am going to turn It back on.

  22. The situation not good down in Long Island the shoreline of CT and NYC because when Irene gets close high tide will be happening and the tides are already a little higher than normal due to the new moon phase.
    Its going to be interesting if the tornado watch gets extended further north. It is now up to Southern New Jersey and already some possible tornadoes in Virginia.

  24. I see they just took the tarp off at Fenway and looked at the radar and think their break is going to last about 10 minutes. Looks like torrential rains in the Worcester area.

    Would anyone be surprised, if they are still dropping dropsonde’s in the center, if the pressure has fallen into the 940s. The radar and satellite presentation look excellent and the reporting stations seem to be observing pressures that are the lowest of the day.

  25. I just talked to my friend. He got home at 3am this morning from myrtle beach, they drove straight through. He said the convoy of power trucks on the highway was unreal. He was talking with a local down there and he was saying a hurricane to them is like a snowstorm for us. My friend said It was pouring there yesterday. They were to come home on Sunday night but decided to cut It short.

    1. That was a VERY wise move on your friend’s part to cut his vacation short…glad that he’s safe and sound back home.

  29. Radar seems to show that the center has maybe another hour or so before it reemerges back over the smooth, frictionless surface of the ocean……It is absolutely torrential rain at Fenway Park.

        1. Tom, do you think game #2 will be played? The radar does not look too promising just south of here.

  31. These are the appetizer rains. The further west you live in SNE the more rain you are going to see from Irene. This rain not helping with the soil since we have had so much rain in parts of SNE the past couple of weeks so it won’t take much in the way of wind gusts to knock down trees and cause power outages.

    1. Jimmy, I never heard of the term “appetizer” regarding to weather…very clever, lol. Is that another new weather term?

  32. decided to bring the lawn furniture into the cellar after all. Got soaked. STILL raining here.

    Btw was on the phone with my son who was at his apartment in Brighton. Lightening struck really close. He thinks it hit a tree. He jumped out of his skin. A few seconds later, heard the thunder here in JP.

  33. Every time it looks like it is about to stop raining, something else pops up to the South and moves in. Almost like training.

  34. Downtown roads in uxbridge impassable from rain according to my daughter. We are driving home VERY slowly. Rt 3 to 128 where we are currently are is 5-10 mph solid traffic.

  35. Tom John and coastal do you have phone access to Internet if your power goes out? I’ll be anxious to know how the conditions are down there. Do others have access if power goes off. I know Hadi and TK do. I think:)

  36. Hey Vicki I don’t so if I am not blogging here its either I am sleeping or the power went out. As I said earlier I hope everyone is ready with their preps. Even if it does not turn out that bad its better safe than sorry.

    1. JJ I definitely agree about better safe than sorry. Other than moving the grill which my husband will have to help with my daughter and husband have done all prep at out house. Yay.

  37. I can use my laptop maybe 30 minutes at most without power. You would think by now with so much new technology computer batteries could last at least a couple hours or so.

  38. The 4 pm pressures in Elizabeth City, NC and Manteo, NC are 28.35 in !!!!!!!….by far the lowest I’ve seen all day. Based on those, I’m thinking the 5pm advisory pressure is going to continue to have fallen.

  41. Pressure stayed at 950mb, very low…..Seeing what the models showed all week, a little strengthening around the North Carolina area and so far, a maintaining of strength. The models have been projecting the NC pressure to be maintained into landfall on Long Island. Wonder if that will happen ?

    1. Great question, I hope TK or someone who knows can explain it. I can say that the windfield is huge and there are areas far west of the center that are experiencing wind related issues.

      1. Tom, thanks. It just seems kind of weird that the pressure is falling and the winds lowered to 85 mph (sustained) but there are higher gusts. This storm has us really coming and going!

      2. This is an unusually large hurricane for coverage. See the quote below from someone I know in Virginia.

        I am not exactly sure what the pressure drop is associated with, but I have observed the structure of Irene become more organized since landfall. I saw this once in a tropical cyclone in Australia, but I attributed it to extreme heat that had been in place where the landfall was. This is not the same thing.

        1. Thanks, TK. It’s almost kind of scary, I guess. I read your post from your fd. in VA. That is scary. I agree w/you – I feel that this storm could intensify again once it hits the water. I have a feeling this storm is going to keep us guessing until it is near Canada.

  43. I just caught the tailend of Harvey- I thought he said we will be on the eastern side in which would not be good. I am very familar with Harvey and to me he looked nervous. They will be coming back on at 5:30.

  44. Quote from my friend in Virginia. I won’t use her name here.

    “ummm we are getting nailed by crazy wind bending trees in half Rain is nuts it stings so bad,I will take pics as soon as i can get out there! I think the weather men didn’t want to scare us …this is way worse then they had me expecting!”

  46. John,

    I’m nervous…….Elizabeth City, NC 5pm pressure 28.26in !! Every hour that goes by, there’s an ob pressure that is lower than any pressure from the hour before. I’m starting to wonder if there’s going to be a pressure under 28.00 inches. Elizabeth City, NC wind is now north.

      1. Lower pressure = worst weather
        Higher pressure = best weather

        Usually, the atmosphere tries to smoothe things out and has air flow from higher pressure towards lower pressure, thus the wind. But, 28.26in is not something you see every day, but what amazes me is, everytime I check the hourly observations, I find a pressure that is lower than I’ve seen the other before.

        1. I wonder If that is why Harvey looked nervous, looked like he was holding somthing back. He should be coming back on any minute, california just one little league.

          1. CA won the series?? We love to watch but no cable at the beach. We also don’t watch TV at beach those kids are remarkable.

  47. Tom- Just went through the old hood. Was surprised to see not many board ups, saw one and lots of furniture on ocean facing homes. The ocean was as calm as ever like it was not moving.

    1. Yes, I believe it, it was calm this morning as well. Lets see, I saw two houses boarded, one had one window boarded and the other had several…..Were you headed east on Rte 139 and did you see the big DPW sign flashing a warning for rip currents, etc ?

      1. I went straight down rte 139 to brant rock and than down foster ave where I lived. I did not see the sign. Something was going on at that brant rock church, not church I don’t think.

    2. They were boarding on ocean side only on Humarock but the majority around us had done so. Meanwhile our neighbor has decided to leave all furniture on his above ground pool deck just south if our house. It may nit affect our yard but will affect ours.

    1. It may slightly strengthen with the center going back over water somewhat. That water is warm out there, and given that the storm structure organized and the pressure dropped after landfall, it would not surprise me to see a tweak up in the intensity.

      2. Thanks, one more question. Do see a change in track at this point. Barry has it pretty far west at 5:30.

  49. Would the sun coming out tomorrow as the center passes to our west cause enough mixing to bring the strongest winds aloft down to the surface ?

    1. yes, I read one of your posts above and changed the channel from the Sox to ch. 5 and caught his broadcast. Interesting Sunday for sure.

  51. Tried to catch Harvey Leonard but every time I tried he wasn’t on.

    If our lights go out I will not be on the computer. My husband’s laptop might be able to stay on for awhile – if so, he said I could get on if I want.

      1. Hi, John – missed him again. 🙁 I’ll try to catch him at some point. I have been playing “tv roulette” between TWC and local stations and my computer w/the weather. And occasionally looking out the window!

    2. Do you have Internet without power for the laptop to connect to?

      This darned thing hung out over NC for 11 hours. That’s just crazy

      1. Hi, Vicki – according to my husband, he has about 1-1/2 hrs. Internet w/o power. Depending whether he has a router. My husband used to be in computers so he knows all that stuff. So if we lose the lights I’ll try to use his laptop, if possible.

        And yes! Isn’t it crazy how this storm is just sitting! It’s moving so slow. And all day it has been so calm around here. I mean, really still. I think that’s typical before a tropical system. But when the wind starts blowing – we’ll sure notice it. Glad you are home safe.

        1. Thanks neighbor. Do I remember your saying you and your husband are ham radio operators. Do you have towers?

          1. Well, we are both amateur (ham) radio operators but my husband is the more active one. He loves building antennas so we have mainly wire antennas. I used to be more active – on 2 meters some yrs. ago. I used to also be on HF yrs. ago too.

    1. Hadi. There seems to be sporadic flooding and the storm isn’t even here. Power was out in wayland when we came home too. I’m glad we came home. Now I’ll worry we won’t be able to go back. Has to be a record for undoing a wonderfully relaxing vacation week.

      1. Vicki,

        I plan to be posting here tomorrow, so, if you dont see my posts, then the power is out in Marshfield…….

        Between TK’s forecast, Harvey Leonards forecast and the NWS discussion, which basically give a long duration tropical storm wind event tomorrow, I cant see how many regions avoid extensive power outages.

      2. First- I am glad you made it home safe. Second your home relax. You and your family will be back at the cottage on Monday. Relax enjoy the blog while your husband watches the pats.

        2. Hahaha. I’m on the Couch John. Feet up. Reading. But I’m having trouble seeing the ocean!! I’m an even bigger pats fan than my husband!! I can hardly wait until the season starts for real.

    1. John, thanks for that update. I remember the T shutting down for hurricane Bob. IIRC it wasn’t for very long.

        1. My son goes to work at 3 tomorrow. He has my car which is good since no T and motorcycle won’t work. I hate that he has to drive into Boston at the worst time

          John will you have to drive now?? That’s worrisome from so far away.

          1. Vicki- anytime we get called into work we can park at the Hospital for free in the garage, so yes I would havto drive in. Alot of times I start at 3am and the same goes there ,the 3am start is overtime. My normal hours are 7am-3:30. On a normal start I park in Quincy and T It from there.

    1. I believe the wind is going to slowly coming in tonight. We will be on the eastern side of the storm which is not good for the wind. Harvey said we will be dealing with wind 40-70mph for a 12-18 hr timeframe. I would put my money on the higher end after listing to him. I do believe we have many power outages tomorrow. The T is shutting down service, I am a T rider they do not do this often.

      1. Thanks John. Do you know the time its expected to get windy? My weather station still has the wind as calm with .52 inches of rain today.

        1. Hey coastal It’s been awhile I hope things are well with you and your family. I think the wind should be cranking here by 7am, I was just trying to read some maps. It will be a long wind event here. I could be wrong on that time, the others may have another time. If I am still here in the am I plan on being up by 7am. I was confused earlier with the track on Its constant back and forth. But after listing to harvey I am starting to get somewhat nervous, I think people will remember this storm if it stays this track.

  59. The inner core of Irene is back over water. Both on radar and satellite, the center is so easily visible. I could almost convince myself that I can see a tiny precip free area in the middle of the center and some convection enhancing on the northern side of the circulation.

  60. According to Todd’s evening blog, the strongest winds will be from mid-morning tomorrow until midnight Monday. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if the winds at least start to get going around sunrise.

    2. Midnight Monday???? Two days? Well darn I thought Monday was going to be sunny and Irene would be out of here.

      1. No Vicki, just ONE day. The winds will last all day into the evening until midnight tomorrow or 12:00 am Monday morning (technically)…whichever you prefer.

        Sorry for any confusion. 🙂

        1. Monday as advertised will be sunny, pleasant with low humidity…Enjoy the rest of your vacation! 🙂

  62. Hi all! Tweaking blog and re-issuing it. Longer update later.

    Harvey is ON TOP OF THIS THING and I’d watch him if I were you.

    1. thanks TK and uh oh !! Thats a long duration sustained wind event of 40 to 70mph with a few higher gusts in my locality.

    2. Tk- Is that in a kidding way, or do you mean that. I have been saying since the winter here that I think he is the best met on tv, his entire team is top notch. I believe he always tells It like he sees It. He was on the money all winter. In one of his viewings tonight he looked nervous, like he was holding something back. I have not seen that in him. Jc must be on vacation. I noticed David Brown has been back on with the weather. Tk I am nervous about tomorrow. 40-70mph wind for a long duration will not be good.

  65. As expected, center over water east of Virginia Beach by 8PM.

    Blog has been updated. Carry on there please. 🙂

  66. I just realized that I won’t be able to use my husband’s computer if the lights go out and get onto this blog – as it is more of a private blog. So, if we lose the lights here, I will not be on this blog. That’s ok, ‘though – I’ll catch up when the lights go on. (I will miss talking to everyone). But, in the meantime, hopefully the lights won’t go out!

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