Wednesday Forecast

28 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)
The temperature-coaster is rolling along and there is not really any change in the forecast posted yesterday. Thankfully we are by what will be the most threatening weather, yesterday’s thunderstorms, which were quite potent in some locations for this early in the season. So now we’re in the cool air today with a wave of low pressure bringing some afternoon and nighttime rain to at least the South Coast and possibly up to around the Mass Pike, before a sliver of high pressure sinks southward enough to bring a warm-up Thursday, only to be replaced with a new batch of cool air Friday into Saturday, but this time it looks like moisture from the south may push far enough north to soak the entire region by late Friday into Saturday, which is unfortunate if you have outdoor plans for early in the weekend. By Sunday, things should warm back up and we’ll have less wet weather, though still the risk of a shower or thunderstorm, but also more sunshine. So in summary, the weather will be a very good example of mid spring in New England during the next 5 days. Onto the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon rain South Coast. Highs 55-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain South Coast to Mass Pike region. Patchy fog. Lows 48-54. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 South Coast, 70-77 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-58. Wind light N to NE.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s coast, 70s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)
The battle of air masses will continue through this period with at least a few opportunities for showers or rain, and variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)
High pressure may take over the weather bringing mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures. Never the highest confidence forecast this far in advance with the still-cool ocean and chilly air not that far away in Canada but optimistic at this point.

28 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    We ended up with a non-severe thunderstorm, followed by a decent slug of rain for an hour or so. Nice drink for the lawns and gardens.

  3. good morning and thank tk. very nice well written wrtie-up.

    not downplaying the severe weather to the west, but all we got in the city was a remnant garden variety thunderstorm.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    One enormous clap of thunder and a vivid lightning to set it off at the end of a long period of relatively benign thunder. Daughter said it was quite windy in Sutton. Uxbridge had wind but nothing you would not expect.

  5. Thanks, TK…

    Not much of a storm when the cell made its way to Taunton.
    A couple of nice jaggedy lightnings, but not much else.
    0.38″ in the bucket after a nice downpour!

    Depending on the source, tonight is the first Boston 8 pm sunset of the spring!!!

    Backing up to a comment written here yesterday afternoon, don’t tell my principal, but this blog and the WHW family have gotten me, too, through many a tedious and long meeting!!!

    Enjoy the day, everyone!

  6. Interesting note: while this appears to be a fairly normal New England Spring, the MIAA has had to extend by a week the final date for high school baseball and softball teams to complete their seasons as a result of postponements due to cold weather and rain/snow. Spring high school sports in New England = always a tough grind.

    1. My son’s JV team has to play four games in-a-row starting tomorrow to get games in. We are at May 16 and the baseball teams are just a little more than halfway through the season. Complicating matters are graduations, honors nights, proms, not only for Middleborough High, but for our opponents.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    We got some dark skies that occasionally broke up and gave some weirdly pretty skies – no mammatus clouds, ‘though. Some thunder and showers – until around 6:00 when we had constant thunder (some of it real loud) and frequent lightning with heavy rain. Lasted a long time. Thunder lasted until around 8 – prob’ly hearing it from distant storms. Not much wind around here.

    1. Those are awesome. Thank you for sharing, WxWatcher.

      My youngest got some too but I haven’t had time to upload them to Imgur.

      I was really excited that I was with my nine year old grand who seems to be fascinated by weather so we could go outside and see them.

  10. As others have said, definitely not downplaying the true severe weather to our west last evening, but in eastern MA storms were non-severe. In fact, I was most surprised by the total lack of wind from the storms that did survive the trek east.

    1. Agree. pretty much what I expected after I noticed the storms weakening.

      Any confirmations re: Ct tornadoes??

      1. Does this confirm there was a tornado in Oxford. It is worded oddly….

        ……At least one confirmed tornado occurred in the Oxford area. The National Weather Service sent a team to assess damage in Connecticut, with a focus on Bethany, Brookfield, Cheshire, Danbury, Durham, Hamden, New Milford, Newtown, Oxford, Ridgefield, Southbury and Winsted.

        On Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service in Albany Tweeted that the survey team near Winsted determined the damage in the area was from straight-line winds and more details will be provided this evening.

        https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/Severe-Storms-Leave-Damage-Across-Connecticut-482728561.html?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_CTBrand

        1. Very vague indeed. I need to see something from
          the NWS for confirmation.

          Aside from that, those photos showed very serious damage for sure. Happy it didn’t occur more to the East.

    2. SAK and I were discussing things behind the scenes and were in agreement that a watch was NOT needed this far east. That proved to be the correct assessment. The conditions were unfavorable for severe weather in eastern MA and RI.

      1. Bingo! Thank you. Makes me feel better.

        Once the storms got to about Worcester or there about, it sure
        looked liked they were weakening via radar.

        I got home and my wife was all concerned that there would
        be severe weather until 9 PM. I assured her that it was all clear regarding severe weather and that we would just have
        a garden variety thunderstorm with a period of hang back rain
        with a rumble of thunder here and there. That is exactly what
        happened.

        It is funny how those watches scare some people to death.

        Even though those storms were weaker in Eastern sections,
        it was still impressive that they held together as much as
        they did, considering the time of year.

        Onto to the next event whenever that is. 😀

  11. NWS surveying damage in areas of CT with possible tornadoes. Radar yesterday showed a debris signature near Southbury, CT.

    1. Thank you JJ.

      I guess we are awaiting the definitive word from the NWS.

      Should you see confirmation, could you please post.

      Many thanks

  13. Damage in Brookfield, CT yesterday was determined by NWS out of Upton a macroburst with maximum wind speeds of 100-110mph impacted a swath of about two and a half miles in width and five miles in length.
    Will see if the other towns in the path of this storm had a tornado or straight line winds.

  14. I always like to look at these, this is the SPC’s Day 1 outlook from 1630z yesterday overlaid with preliminary storm reports. It can be used for forecast verification purposes. As I said yesterday, the forecast for the most part was excellent. The moderate risk area is so peppered with wind damage reports on here, you can’t even see it. The one minor miss area, as I also mentioned yesterday, was the northern periphery of that enhanced risk area, central/northern MA in particular. The pure warm sector air mass was pinched off just a tad more than expected, which kept the threat confined a little further south. But all in all, can’t complain about the forecast. Sad to hear of the several fatalities reported to our southwest. It’s a good thing we don’t see days like this often, because the population density is just so high that a round of storms like this, which other parts of the US get fairly regularly, can have dire consequences.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day1otlk_v_20180515_1630.gif

  15. At least two tornadoes yesterday in CT.
    EF 1 Tornado with estimated peak wind speeds of 100mph moved along a 4.5 mile path between Southbury and Oxford. Numerous trees were uprooted along this path.

    EF1 tornado with estimated peak wind speeds of 110mph moved along a 9.5 mile path between Beacon Falls and Hamden. Numerous trees were uprooted along this path.

  16. This is the first tornado to hit Hamden since the F4 tornado on July 10, 1989 which was part of a big tornado outbreak in the northeast that day.

  18. The Euro joins the tropical system party on its 00z Op run.

    Euro also consistent showing NW flow aloft heading into Memorial Day weekend with pleasant temps (850 mb temps around 10C). Hopefully this holds.

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