Wednesday Forecast

59 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)
Low pressure passes north of the region today and tonight, dragging a warm front through the region this afternoon with a few showers. By the time a cold front passes through overnight, the showers/thunderstorms with it will have weakened to just a few isolated showers, although a few downpours may still accompany it. Dry air returns Thursday after a brief shot of humidity later today into this evening, but a cold pool of air with an upper level trough has to come through the region late Thursday into Friday and may trigger an additional shower, favoring northern and eastern areas. The weekend will be dry and will start to heat up. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding over. Scattered showers midday to late afternoon from west to east. Greatest risk of a moderate or heavy shower South Coast. More humid. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 76-81 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers, mainly late evening from west to east with a brief downpour possible. Humid evening, less humid overnight. Lows 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to west.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a possible shower early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)
Brief heat ends with a thunderstorm threat June 18 and showers that may linger into early June 19. Another system may bring a shower threat before the end of the period with temperatures closer to or slightly below normal before warming at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)
Another brief cool-down early in the period and an additional wet weather threat about June 24 before a fair and warmer period of weather.

59 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    I agree, Tom….lovely morning.

    No more opening windows wide for a while. So much pollen came in that my floors felt as if you were walking on a beach.

  4. Good morning,everyone, and what a beautiful start of the day!
    Today and tomorrow are the earliest sunrises of the year.

    Clouded up real fast though. Strong cluster of rain just south of Long Island but no lightning detected.

  5. Going to be interesting next Monday.

    Timing of cold front, cloud cover, etc could be the difference between 85F and 98F.

    I don’t remember the EURO’s 850 mb temp projections being so warm in the past. Its something I feel like has been true the last several months to a year (perhaps an updated version)?

    For instance, I don’t recall too often seeing such a large 20C contour for 850mb temps in the eastern US on the EURO, yet on the 144 hr panel, there is one that covers a large chunk of the US east of the Rockies.

  6. Clouding up in Sutton quickly too and a few stray raindrops. Lots of field days in the area today. Hope rain holds or remains gentle.

    2. Happy Birthday to me 😉 and to Mrs. SSK and Sir Paul

      There have been a good number of very hot June 18 days

        1. I will sing this song from now until Monday. Thank you, MassBay. It is one of my very favorites. I always loved that he and I shared a birthday….June 18 😉

        1. hahahaha – see how bad I am. Unless I read incorrectly, the heat in the link Old Salty posted is for June 18 – that is my birthday. You are right, rainshine. I was just welcoming it as a birthday gift.

          Sorry about that folks. But thank you all. Early birthdays are always welcome.

            1. No – I managed to be the one who confused everyone and it is definitely my age.

              Your link is showing heat for June 18??? Did I at least read that correctly?

  10. For those that like the extreme heat and humidity at the same time next week looks to be your type of day.
    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/temperature-f/20180618-2100z.html
    https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/massachusetts/temperature-f/20180618-2100z.html

    I know many will be inside doing office work or something but I will be out on my pool patio enjoying the rays. But be carefull, the Ozone layer is starting to be depleted again as someone is using illegal chemicals again. Scientists measured the ozone decreasing again after years of it recovering.

  11. looks like 18 to 20C at 7-8 am Monday on the 12z EURO.

    Cold front across Canadian Border.

    Westerly flow at 850mb, WNW at 500mb, on the northeastern edge of the Ohio Valley Ridge. heights about 582 dm or a bit higher.

    If there is no MCS and no high cloud debris, and the surface wind is W or WNW in southern New England, 100F may be in play Monday from southernmost NH southward to pretty close to the south coast.

    With the preceding dry conditions, temps will overachieve in this downsloping scenario.

    1. High dewpoints in the morning, dropping in the afternoon, providing the air a bit more help to warm in the early to mid afternoon.

        1. No, interpreting the wind flow from Sunday into Monday and hopefully correctly anticipating that the humidity would be highest Sunday night into Monday with a drop during the day Monday.

          Kind of using July 22-23, 2011 as a most recent analog for this situation of a quick shot of intense heat breaking off and coming in from the WNW direction from the Great Lakes.

          1. About 91 or 92, but the developer of the site indicates that projected high temperature
            is an approximation and I have found their high temperature grid map to be woefully lacking.
            In short, for the high temps, go with the GFS and/or NAMS when in range.

            Also worth noting, there are indicators pointing
            to “possible” severe weather on Monday. Still a ways out, so we shall see.

            2. Thank you both. This is an awesome discussion.

              Question….if the temperatures skyrocket as they potentially can, does that in itself create an opportunity for severe weather?

              Not sure if my question makes sense.

              1. Depending upon other parameters, IF the temperature were to sky rocket, then presumably the Sun
                will have done it’s work to destabilize the atmosphere.

                However, latest CAPE charts do not indicate super instability. It indicates marginal CAPE for severe weather, but that could change.

                Just too far out at this time.
                Something to watch.

                And even if there were enough CAPE, still need enough lift
                for severe. Not sure of the exact timing and location of the front.
                Could be it comes in too late to tap into anything that was there.

                So who knows. We’ll watch and see. At this moment, I’d lean towards no severe, but I am NOT a Met. 😀

              2. Thanks, JPD. I wouldn’t mind a bit of a light show on my birthday. Will keep fingers crossed.

    1. Sorry, JJ, I confused everyone. I was welcoming the high heat that Old Salty posted for Monday, June 18….which is my birthday.

      See how easily I can mess something up.

  14. You know how I am about bdays Vicki, and knowing you share one with Sir Paul on June 18 makes it quite easy to remember. There are some cool music bdays in the month of June… including but not limited to:
    Graham Russell from Air Supply – June 11
    Russell Hitchcock from Air Supply – June 15
    David Gray – today (June 13)
    Boy George – June 14
    Burl Ives (“Holly Jolly Christmas”) – June 14
    Barry Manilow – June 17
    Sir Paul McCartney – June 18
    Blake Shelton – June 18
    Ann Wilson (Heart) – June 19
    Paula Abdul – June 19
    Brian Wilson – June 20
    Lionel Richie – June 20
    Todd Rundgren – June 22
    Cyndi Lauper – June 22
    Mick Fleetwood – June 24
    Curt Smith (Tears For Fears, singer of “Everybody Wants To Rule The World”) – June 24
    George Michael – June 25 (died 2016)
    Chris Isaak – June 26
    Ariana Grande – June 26

    2. Wow. Awesome list. Thank you.

      I love love Blake and didn’t know we share a bday. I actually exclaimed out loud. I had the pleasure to meet Burl Ives on the set of Alias Smith and Jones…..tv show way before the time of most here….and he was such a gentle and gracious individual.

  15. 100F is a tough mark to hit around here. It’s still a little early in the season for the “peak window” for such heat. But Monday has the potential to be a scorcher, and who knows, could perhaps be the hottest day of the entire warm season for some. If no cloud debris issues, upper 90s are certainly in play.

    1. Completely agree on the cloud debris issue. Exactly what was in my mind when looking at things earlier. I know I don’t put any specific temps beyond day 5 but tomorrow that will be a factor in my first guess.

  16. Back from `cool’ Seattle, in more ways than one. Had several really nice days in which the sun shone. and also several rainy days, and a few in-between gray days. Western Washington State is worth a visit, particularly if you’re interested in nature, wilderness, wildlife, mountains, islands, and marine life.

    I know one thing, if it gets to 100F on Monday, or any 90F plus day this summer, I will try and beam myself back to the Seattle area. As someone who lives in my building and is from Seattle said, “it’s always fresh there.” I think the word fresh describes it well. In summer, the difference between Boston and Seattle is palpable, even on a day like today.

    I’ve never liked regular t-shirts, but do like long-sleeve t’s. You see a lot of long-sleeve t’s in Seattle and also San Francisco, but very few here.

    2. i never wear long sleeve shirts, if I get chilly, I put on a sweatshirt. the Pacific NW is a place I would like to go for all the reasons you listed. I also feel like there are many parts of New England that you can have that “fresh air sense” Have to go to the MTNS or near the coast away from the big cities. Arcadia is a place I like to go.

  18. Add dew points in the uncomfortable range along with those temps for Monday equals a sweatorama

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