Friday Forecast

84 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)
A disturbance will take its time moving through the region from north to south today which will be somewhat unsettled and on the cool side. Quick change for the weekend as a warmer westerly fair flow takes over. A quick shot of heat for Monday which may be lead in by a shower or thunderstorm in the early hours and ended by a few showers and storms Monday night or early Tuesday before the heat eases, although the humidity that arrives for Monday may be slow to depart on Tuesday as this particular front will not come charging through with a big push of dry air immediately. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with scattered to widespread showers. Slow clearing trend north to south afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 50-55 except 55-60 urban areas. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-83 Cape Cod, 84-89 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Pre-dawn shower or thunderstorm possible. Sun and clouds day. Nighttime shower or thunderstorm possible. Humid. Lows from the middle to upper 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to middle 90s, coolest South Coast.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm favoring southern areas. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)
Mainly dry and seasonable much of this period then some wet weather may arrive late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)
A couple disturbances will bring brief shower and thunderstorm threats but overall dry weather with temperatures near to above normal.

84 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    The 00z Euro has the Monday heat ……

    Late in the period, after having rebuilt the heat in western Canada, it breaks a chunk of it off and sends it eastward through southern Canada.

    At day 10, the euro features another large area covered by 20C 850 mb temps.

    This time, its in southern Canada, just north of the Great Lakes on a bee line for New England, which already is under 15 to 18C air at hr 240.

    Let’s see if there’s some consistency to that and if it moves forward in time over the coming days …..

    1. A few days of near average temps here and there, but the next 10 days overall could see a temperature departure > 5F, if not higher:

    2. If it’s 20C in Southern Canada, what is it destined to be here?
      22-24 C???? YIKES. There could be another scorcher!

  3. Thank you, TK. Nice light rain – we need it. Is it possible to have had a bit of sleet mixed in? At one point it seemed to be pinging off of the grill.

  4. NAM and CMC not so bullish on the Heat for Monday, but honestly, when the GFS
    and EURO are in decent agreement, watch out.

  5. Here are a few maps from my Euro service.

    Surface High Temperatures for Monday and 850MB temperatures for Monday.
    Surface shows 101, while 850mb shows 20-24 C.

    https://imgur.com/a/zLiskry

    As I posted yesterday, 850MB temps of 20-24 C could support high temps
    of 95-103. We shall see what today’s runs show.

    As I also pointed out just a bit ago, CMC and NAM not so Bullish with CMC
    temps in the 80s and NAM the lower 90s. GFS shows 96-97.

    fwiw, Last night Eric had 97 for Boston’s High temperature Monday.

  6. Hey Tom, do you have class on Monday?

    If so, best bring a cooler of ice to throw on yourself.
    Good grief, I can’t imagine trying to teach on a day like that.
    I’d tell the students to put their heads on the desk and quietly try to stay
    as cool as possible.

    Best of luck!

    1. The schools certainly heat up quickly. My 6th grader has an ice cream social on Monday. They better eat it fast before it all melts.

    2. We do have school Monday.

      At the middle school, most of us have a window A/C. This will keep our rooms somewhat manageable.

      Most of Marshfield’s elementary schools do not have window units.

      If the weekend continues to show near 100F Monday with high humidity, I would not be surprised to see early releases announced.

      1. Interesting, Tom. I do not think the new Sutton schools have AC but may be incorrect. I do not recall schools changing hours due to heat, but then we do not have the excessive heat in June very often as TK pointed out. I would hazard a guess that we can have more consistent hot weather in September but still not near 100.

      2. So, then your room had a Window AC?
        That will help, but I don’t imagine it will keep up with
        the heat Monday. IF I were the superintendent of schools,
        I’d have school start, take attendance etc and then release them.
        As long as it counts as a day of school. 😀

        Good luck Monday.

        1. I am with you JPD. It is the last week of school and there isn’t a whole lot of teaching going on at this point.

        2. Yes it does and exactly. It does pretty well on warm days up to noon, then the beating sun and warmth counter the a/c to make the room 75 to 80F.

          But, on the excessively hot days, that process starts earlier and by afternoon it’s probably in the low to mid 80s and quite uncomfortable.

      1. I was looking at temps here when I said 101. I am hoping for a harmless but fun lightshow during the day.

  8. 12Z NAM again not quite as bullish on the heat, but appears to be increasing it.

    2M temps

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/078/sfct.us_ne.png

    Dew point

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/078/sfctd.us_ne.png

    A wee bit stifling. no?

    IF, and I do say IF we were to reach 100 with a dew point of 74, the heat index
    would be 113.
    100 with dew point of 72, heat index: 110
    100 with dew point of 70, heat index: 108

    95 with DP 74, heat index: 106
    95 with DP 72, heat index: 104
    95 with DP 70, heat index: 102

    Did I pretty much cover it??

  9. Btw, even though the NAM not quite as bullish on the heat, it is SUPER BULLISH
    on severe parameters with CAPE over 3,000 joules:

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/081/sbcape.us_ne.png

    Lifted index of -7

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/081/sbli.us_ne.png

    Supercell Composite index of 15+

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/081/scp.us_ne.png

    0-1KM EHI near 4

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/081/ehi01.us_ne.png

    0-3km EHI over 7

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/081/ehi03.us_ne.png

    Sig Tornado index

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/081/stp.us_ne.png

      1. Hmmm, Some models are indicating that, but not as cool
        as you think. More like mid 70s or so. We shall see.
        Curious to know of TK’s thoughts.

  14. Interesting…

    Ad bullish as the NAM was with severe weather parameters, the GFS is NOT.
    Virtually nothing or very little at best.

    Waiting on our friend the Euro. 😀

  15. I won’t post the SREF data just yet, but the latest sref (9Z) is ust as bullish or perhaps more so than the NAM regarding severe weather for Monday. Of course there are NAM
    members that help comprise the ensembles for that model. Might explain some it.

    Oh, here’s one. CravenBrooks Severe parameter

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f081.gif

    Craven Significant Severe Parameter
    Like the supercell composite parameter, the Craven Significant Severe composite caught my eye on several occasions and I believe I made a post about it on one of the discussion boards for class during an outbreak (I do believe it was the March 12 outbreak, although I didn’t include it on the web page).

    The Craven Significant Severe Parameter is MUCH easier for me to explain to you than the supercell composite is. It is the product of 100mbCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference in m/s, sometimes referred to as “deep layer shear”. It accounts for the compensation between instability and shear. The majority of severe events, including tornadoes that are F3 or greater, occur in areas where this parameter measures more than 20, 000 m³s³. This value would be indicated as “20” on the SPC Mesoanalysis page.

    So that 20,000 contour represents a chance for severe weather.

  16. From NYC NWS office regarding Monday’s possible severe weather. This is a different take and not sure it would apply up here, but anyway here it is:

    It is also possible given increasing deep layer WNW flow, antecedent
    hot/humid air mass, and increasing DCAPE, that we may have to watch
    out for one or more MCS`s, though exact timing and placement remain
    uncertain.

      1. IF I am reading this correctly, either there is no CAP for Boston N&W OR the Cap was just broken.

        http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018061512/078/mlcin.us_ne.png

        explanation of CIN, Convective inhibition (CIN or CINH) is a numerical measure in meteorology that indicates the amount of energy that will prevent an air parcel from rising from the surface to the level of free convection.

        https://study.com/academy/lesson/convective-inhibition-cin-definition-role-in-forecasting.html

  17. I see at 72 hrs or 8am Monday, 850 mb temps of 18 to 20 C are advecting in.

    Low temps may occur in middle of night, then start to rise prior to sunrise. When the sun comes up, its off to the races.

    If an area doesn’t get rain later Monday into the night-time hours, it will be interesting to see what the lows are because at 7am Tuesday, 850mb temps have only cooled to 15C in southernmost New England. Potential for a very warm overnight.

  18. 12Z Euro Surface temperatures down a “tad” in some areas and up a “tad” in others
    compared to the 0Z run. But seriously, is there much of a difference between
    101 and 99???

    https://imgur.com/a/lphwFKv

    Click to enlarge as it is Website Viagra.

  20. 12 NAM aggressive with severe parameters on Monday for SNE. 12z GFS best instability in CT on Tuesday.

  21. Boston feels like Seattle today. In fact, it’s very much like the weather I had there on Tuesday this week.

    Taking a brief break from work by looking at Spain v. Portugal (World Cup). Even if you don’t like soccer, this game’s exciting. Close game (currently 3-2 for Spain), wonderful technique on display, incredible fitness (these guys don’t need oxygen after sprinting 80 yards down field), and world class players who never take days off. The “no days off” creed shouted out at the Patriots’ rally last year really does apply to top-flight soccer players. The off-season for the likes of Ronaldo and Diego Costa is a mere 2 weeks in July.

  22. Hat-trick for Cristiano Ronaldo. A truly astounding free kick curled around the wall.

    I don’t care for Ronaldo’s personality or his tax evasion, but he’s currently the greatest athlete on earth, though Lionel Messi may change all that later on this tournament.

  24. I think most of the severe weather on Monday will be in Northern NY State (Adirondacks will get pummeled with rain, I think) and Northern New England, and this pattern appears to repeat itself later next week. I can see showers and some pop-up storms occurring in Eastern Massachusetts, but not much severe weather. Perhaps a different scenario as you head west towards Central Massachusetts, and also northwest towards NNE and NY State.

  25. Howdy folks…

    Let’s update a few things:
    * I over-forecast today’s temps, which is not something I do often. Usually I’m too cool and it’s warmer than I said. The short range guidance indicated this, along with a longer shower threat and more cloudiness, but I didn’t quite take it as seriously as I should have.
    * The 2m air temp forecasts for heat are almost always too hot. But the conservative forecasts for Monday, such as Barry’s, are warranted for the uncertainty in debris cloudiness. WxWatcher and I talked about this yesterday. Until you know how much blow off cloudiness a storm cluster, or clusters, are going to produce, and where in relation to the upper winds and your location it is going to be, you can’t really tell the degree of debris cloudiness. We could end up overcast for several hours Monday morning, for example, if things happen just so.
    * My mention of “pre-dawn” for a shower & tstorm threat Monday is in regards to the potential for an MCS in the area.
    * My optimism for Tuesday was that the front would push south and clear us out. It will push south, but not that far and not that fast at first, and so cloudiness, high humidity, and a shower risk will probably linger in all areas, not just southern areas. It’s still 4 days away so obviously this is not set in stone, but past experience with this pattern shows me don’t just jump to the conclusion that it clears right out. The transition to drier is almost always slower than it initially looks like.

    2. Well howdy to you also. And thank you. It was awfully nice of you to take time from your hard work on a storm for Monday night in order to update us 😉

      1. It was my one hour sitting and doing nothing today. 😛 So it was no effort. 😉

        1. Thank you, TK. You put a lot of effort into this blog: Forecasts, moderating, posting replies, updating forecasts, reporting things like storm totals. We all appreciate your dedication and hard work.

          1. 99.999999% of the time it’s a total pleasure. 🙂 Hopefully I can get that to 100% even from here on. 😉

  26. OS or anyone. How did you mount your weather station. I had one on the deck railing when it was wood but no longer have wood. Is there a wood post you set in your yard?

  29. Vicki, re: weather station.

    Even if deck isn’t wood, it can easily be screwed into a post on the deck whether it
    be Plastic/vinyl or Metal.

    Aside from that, most install it on top of a wooden post inserted securely into the ground. Needs to be in open space and absolutely level. Oh and one more thing not to forget. Test the range of the wireless communication before inserting the post.
    Nothing like going through all of that work and come to find out the instrument
    is out of range. 😀

    Best of luck.

  30. Going out fishing in a few despite the ticks.

    I will tuck my jeans into my socks and spray pant legs liberally with deet insect
    repellent.

    Hopefully will have some photos later of idyllic water’s edge locations. If I am lucky, perhaps a nice fish. Hah, ffat chance of that. Maybe a blue heron? Hawk? Eagle?
    That would be nice. Even a snake or two would be great. I actually like snakes.
    I almost always see a musk rat swimming in the water.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQzNqmg6qT4

    2. Good luck also. I believe ticks have to be on you for a number of hours so your precaution and checking thoroughly when you are home should do the trick.

    3. snakes are cool, I always have to remove some from the shed. I like them as they eat the pests.

  31. Thanks for the photo love everyone! I took a ton of photos last evening but that was my favorite. 🙂

    Updating now…

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