Thursday Forecast

68 Comments

7:14AM

COMMENTARY
The Summer Solstice occurred at 6:07AM EDT so it’s now officially summer by astronomical standards, lagging behind almost everyone else’s definition of the start of summer, and proving, though probably to no real benefit, once again why it doesn’t do us good to rush the seasons. Interesting how we’ve decided to ignore the real in favor of the made-up, but that’s how we do it in society I suppose.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)
A disturbance that passed south of the region overnight exits early today with no more than few rain drops around Nantucket, but a frontal boundary coming down from the north along with a developing sea breeze will set up a wind convergence area and may trigger a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm this afternoon and very early evening anywhere from the Boston and Worcester metro areas southward. High pressure will control the weather Friday but a light onshore flow will keep it on the cooler side of average. The weekend will be somewhat unsettled but not a washout. I would not cancel any plans at this point. We’ll see a warm front pass through the region by Saturday night, and ahead of it we’ll see abundant cloudiness and patchy rain, but a good amount of this rain may peel off to the east and push through southeastern areas from Saturday morning to early afternoon, leaving much of the region rain-free. Humidity spikes by early Sunday and by later Sunday a cold front will be moving through the region bringing a fairly widespread shower risk. Drier air arrives Monday but one additional disturbance passing through may still trigger a few showers, but that being 5 days away is far from a certainty. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy morning with brief rain Nantucket. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in MA/RT/eastern CT. Highs 73-81, coolest coast. Wind light variable early then E 5-15 MPH except N 5-15 MPH over central MA to eastern CT.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog interior wetlands. Lows 50-55 interior valleys, 55-60 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible, favoring southeastern areas from mid morning through early afternoon. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)
Expecting mainly dry weather for this period but will watch for small disturbances coming along a weaker jet stream in a general west to east flow. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)
Much of this period looks dry with minimal shower and thunderstorm threat but always need to watch for disturbances with the jet stream not too far to the north. Temperatures generally above normal with a high pressure ridge in the eastern US.

68 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Thanks, TK…

    Happy Summer to all!

    And a happy and restful school, summer vacation to you, Tom, my fellow prof.
    Congratulations!
    Here’s hoping you’re sleeping in a little later this morning and finding your way to a relaxing place today where no bells ring every 46 minutes!!!!

    1. Your comment gave me a smile. I’m hoping the very same for you soon!!

      On a school note, I do not recall if you and Tom begin school before Labor Day. Uxbridge did something different this year. They took two professional days and put them before school on the week when the teachers typically arrive to prepare. Doing that allowed them to begin school after Labor Day.

      1. Usually before, but not next 2 years because Labor Day is close to one of the first few days in September.

        So, next year’s 180th day without snow days is June 14th and in 2020, it’s June 16th. Come on El Niño winter.

        Although …. this year, we had 7 cancellations and 5 of them were due to trees being down, power outages or severe coastal flooding.

    2. Thanks Captain !

      Looking forward to being able to officially wish you the same.

      Yes, woke up right at 6, but forced myself back to sleep. It will take a few weeks to shut that internal clock off.

      The other funny one is that we eat “first lunch” at 11am and it takes a while to reset lunch time to noon or a bit after during the summer.

      20 minutes to the next bell, lol !!!!

  6. Boston Public Schools last day is June 28. There were a total of 6 snow days with 4 of them in March. The first two snow days were January 4-5.

    The last day of school next year will be on June 18. Pray for El Niño! 🙂

  10. I think the SST along the south coast have gotten mild enough now, that with a light SW wind since yesterday, there’s definitely been a dewpoints boundary just SE of Boston, extending all the way westward through southern CT, where dewpoints have been running 60 to 63F.

    Yesterday, I kept thinking it was deceptively warm down here.

    I do see through the Obs the northerly wind developing in central New England, so a dewpoints drop will be coming soon to southernmost areas.

  11. Right now, I am not feeling Seals and Crofts or easy listening.
    It’s more like rockin’ it and crankin’ it with “School’s Out” by Alice Cooper!

    Maybe toning it down a notch later with the Beach Boys.

  12. I don’t know if it’s any indication for this afternoon …. our wind just went very light NE. To my northeast, it’s crystal clear.

    Overhead and to my south, there are scattered cumulus developing. There is one decent cumulus cloud looking south, southeast downs towards Plymouth.

    The clouds are barely moving, perhaps edging ever so slowly southward.

  14. As I mentioned above, I find it very ironic that the vast majority of the snow days occurred in March as opposed to the more typical winter months. I assume it was the same statewide?

    June 28 IMO is quite late. I would be curious if that is the latest last day date in public school history. A tough price to pay. 🙁

    Back in my day, the latest that I can recall was maybe the 23rd or 24th?

    1. I was always a fan of Bobby Goldsboro, but I do not recall the song. Thank you, Keith. I enjoyed listening.

    1. This is lovely. I am listening in the background as I work. I am a big fan of Mary Chapin Carpenter.

    1. It is to the RT of RI and RT below MA, RT above a couple of sounds and RT to the east of CT

  18. Winter 95-96 went to school till June 30th then had two days taken out of April vacation since state law does not allow us to go past June 30th. After that winter no more week off in February. We would just get the long weekend for Presidents Day.

  19. Just came in from lunch. WOW!!!!!

    I can’t even describe how nice it is out. BEAUTIFUL with a bit of a mild sea breeze with
    temps right around 80 or so. Lots of cumulus “Just’ West of the city and clear
    to the East with dotted cumulus overhead.

    Will they pop a shower? I dunno. We shall see.

    1. Sea Breeze boundary visible on radar, plus first convective shower showing up, albeit very light.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3826086956521739&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=381.7045454545455&centery=310.56818181818176&transx=-18.295454545454504&transy=70.56818181818176&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25493371&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  20. JPD. Does wunder have to access my acurite account? I can’t find a number to call and I have not received an answer to my email other than they received it. My password for my acurite and wunder accounts are the same. But the pw wunder assigned me is not the same. I entered that one when I submitted info into their online form

    Hoping that makes sense. And if you’d rather, TK or JPD, I can always email JPD my questions so I don’t bug people here

    1. I cannot for the life of me remember.
      Of course, I don’t have access to it here at the office.
      When I have a chance, I’ll have to look at it from home and I am not
      sure when I can do that. Might not be till the weekend.

      It’s been 2 years since I set mine up. IF I remember correctly, I had a similar
      problem that you are having, but I remedied it rather quickly. Just wish
      I could remember how.

      So sorry.

      1. On no. Please don’t be sorry. Whenever you have a minute is much appreciated. I wish wunder had a phone numbed.

        Oddly I seem to recall you had a problem and remedied it also.

  21. The EURO/GFS have had a warm long term signal in the long range for a few days now.

    The 12z EURO at days 9 and 10 has a 594 dm ridge in the Ohio valley. While it’s warm to hot in New England, a good part of the Great Lakes and Midwest are under 20 to 22C 850 mb contours.

    If this were to verify, a lot of real estate out there would have 100F potential. New England would be somewhat cooler, but still very warm to hot.

    This would be a very amplified pattern with an anomalous west coast trof seen more often during the cold season.

      1. Agreed. Give me 850 mb temps of 10 to 14C, with high temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dew points in the 50s and that’s my ideal summer weather.

  22. If a dome of heat sets up shop I am wondering if that will limit the amount of shower and thunderstorm chances or will we get some ridge riding showers and thunderstorms.

  23. Some darker clouds moving in here from what appears to be the northeast. Some WSW of here are building

  24. I am wondering how likely this Buck and Doe thing my cousin is having will be rained out. Its in placed of a bridal shower, wish it was that so I did not have to go.

    1. which day. Oldest grands 11th birthday party is supposed to be Saturday. They were getting a bounce house but doesn’t look like a good weekend for one of those

      1. whoops forgot. It is this Saturday. I really do not want to go to this thing especially since its keeping me from making a trip that my friends and myself planned for this weekend. We made the plans like 4 weeks ago. I found out that I was invited to this stupid thing last week. My parents thought I knew about it a month ago. Because its a ” extended family event” my parents make a big deal of it and said cancel your other plans, this is important. I feel different about it obviously and I am hoping for a freaking washout. If it was for anyone else in the family I would not mind and would be more than willing to change things around. Not for this person.

  26. I love big upsets in huge sports tournaments. There was one today I’m rather thrilled about. As my friend said, and I’m paraphrasing, just because you assemble a lot of people with great talent does not mean you have assembled a great team. 🙂

    Weather behaving mostly as expected today. The initial showers fired a little further north than I expected, however. Ah well. So going forward, as I look at data that has arrived since I posted the blog above, I would have to say there are no real changes to the thinking contained therein. I think we get very little rain around here on Saturday, and a little more than many are forecasting on Sunday.

    1. I assume you’re referring to Argentina’s loss to Croatia. One thing to keep in mind is that Croatia is a very good team. Argentina’s a mess at this point (pardon the pun). Messi doesn’t perform nearly as well for his national team as for his club. And, the veterans on the team are … old. The goalie is horrible. Plus, the coach has made some bad decisions. Quite frankly, South American soccer is in a bit of a funk. Contrary to many, I’m not bullish on Brazil. They still haven’t solved their biggest problem: defense and keeping things organized in back.

      1. I was and you are correct. It’s not a great time for South American soccer. Europe has the best teams at this time.

    1. Thank you JPD. More appreciated than you can know. I’ll post my screen below. I couldn’t get is all so address is cropped but it is correct. I was reading today that wunder is not responsive when there are problems. I’ll try acurite tomorrow or on the weekend when there might me a shorter wait time. I’m can always just out on speaker and do other things while I wait.

      https://i.imgur.com/coNJyms.png

      2. Sorry you are having trouble.
        Only other thing I can think of is that your device ID was
        entered wrong, but then you did say it was correct, so I dunno.
        Seems like it should be working.

        Best of luck.

        1. Thanks JPD. I’ve checked it a few times. I’ll go over it all tomorrow. Important thing is that it is working fine here

          Enjoy rhe night. It is a beauty

  29. When the talk of “the greatest of all time” comes around in any sport, the deciding factor usually comes down to the number of titles won. Despite all of his success at FC Barcelona (I am a huge FCB fan), Messi has no titles with his homeland. The Argentines were runner-ups in the 2014 World Cup and failed to win two Copa Americas since. Argentina looked horrible today. Messi had no shots at all. Of course, you can’t shoot if your teammates can’t get you the ball. Croatia had all of the answers.

    Ronaldo and Portugal look strong so far. Portugal won the 2016 Euros and I like them to go far in this tournament. However, if Ronaldo has a bad game or if he stopped by a strong defense, I think Portugal may have trouble in the knockout round.
    Dare I say it, Ronaldo has risen to the challenge when it comes to international competition.
    I love underdogs, so I love Iceland’s story. Although they don’t look like underdogs any more!
    The cream is rising to the top now in the tourney.

    Speaking of winners, today’s and this week’s weather are leading the tables!

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