Tuesday Forecast

76 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)
No changes again. Two great days, then a front, favoring faster timing still, then heat knocks on the door at the end of the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior wetlands. Lows 48-53 interior valleys / wetlands, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly morning to mid afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from near 80 South Coast to around 90 elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather and this is a hot pattern for this area with mainly dry weather. Exceptions are disturbances that travel over the ridge, which will be centered to the west of New England, sometimes can bring brief thunderstorm threats. Also some coastal areas can cool at times due to sea breezes.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)
Similar pattern continues with heat and limited thunderstorm chances at first, and then a couple stronger disturbances may bring better thunderstorm chances and cut into the heat thereafter.

76 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning.

    May I repeat myself and say we have another 10!!!!!
    As Eric Fisher said last night: “Meteorological Perfection!”
    I hit the LIKE button.

    I just came into the office and I cannot believe how NICE it is out there!!!
    I just wanted to stay outside.

    I was saying earlier this morning that it is sure looking like the massive heat
    will be TEMPERED considerably. We shall see how it plays out. I would like
    to point out that TK continually indicated that the HEAT was way over forecast.
    Wise man, that TK.

    Oh, btw, today is the absolutely PERFECT SUMMER day to me. Yeah I know, some pool and beach goers might like it a bit warmer and I can understand that, but to me
    this weather is perfect. 😀

  6. NWS discussion re: Possible Heat and Constraints

    */ Overview…

    Heat build-up by weekend into the holiday week? Seemingly sensible
    SW CONUS heat release captured by anomalous easterlies towards the
    preferred N Pacific H5 trof. Support perhaps via latent heat release
    with Indian Ocean origins, a nod to a near phase 2 MJO. Overall, an
    exacerbated, amplified H5 height pattern extending from the Pacific
    into the Atlantic. Subsequent deeper H5 trof into the NW CONUS, a
    stronger SW push of H85 anomalies upwards of +10C towards the St.
    Lawrence River Valley.

    However not everything is clear-cut. If the pattern heightens as is
    forecast late-week, could see mid-level energy Thursday cut-off to
    our S and linger providing relieving onshore E flow. Remember, the
    waters are still fairly cool. Certainly under the influence of high
    heights, higher pressure, if winds remain light, then sea-breezes,
    separate or in addition, could also provide relief

  7. NWS Taunton For Thurs.
    Some thin, elevated instability to work within a highly sheared low-level environment, noting 0-1/0-3 km shear.

  8. I’d be pretty pissed if I were home. 69 degrees and a dew point of 43. Pitiful way to run a summer. Thank god im down south with 90 degrees and 73 degree depoint every day. Really looking forward to the heatwave when I get back. Hope it lasts awhile.

    1. You may be disappointed the way things are looking.
      It will be hot, but perhaps not as hot as you would like nor as long
      as you would like.

      1. Anything beats the piss poor June we’ve have had temp wise. I know some like it, but for me June has been terrible.

      1. It’s my favorite month of the year. I’d love to live where it’s july weather 12 months out of the year.

        1. Hey – lookie there. We agree on something. I’d love to have you live where it’s july weather 12 months out of the year also!!! 😉

        2. its one of my favorites as well. i’m a july baby. Love the summer and the beach weather that comes with it. This fall I might be heading to florida for the year to work down in the keys, we shall see if i get the job or not in the mean time I have a job up at the shoals marine lab for the month of July. It would probably be my first time not experiencing a new England Christmas/new year. Probably be the first year I do not go skiing since I was in 2 grade as well.

      1. I saw that as well and gave a big fat FIGURES shout out!
        And at the same time remembered something TK said about
        it NOT being a washout on Thursday and the rains would not
        amount to as much as being hyped.

        And btw, you may not be TK, but we all welcome your comments
        at any time. Many thanks

    1. Possible, although I don’t think for Boston, especially logan. However,
      even there it is “possible”. One thing for sure, ALL models have backed
      off from that EXCESSIVE heat once forecast. 😀 😀
      And that is a good thing.

      1. I’m glad for Mrs. OS and those who struggle with extremes. Extreme hot or cold is something that I do not mind but it is sure no anything I would wish for….especially an extended period.

            1. Probably won’t be necessary now, but we
              can always adjust on the fly.

              I have 3 Window ACs ready to go, 1 installed and 2 ready to go with a 4th sitting around in the attic.

    2. Right, so it will be 88-90 instead of 96-98. Helps, but if the DP is up where forecast, it is still bad, just a little less so. 😀

  15. Here is the 15Z SREF 0-1 KM helicity
    at 9Z Thursday or 5AM

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

    12Z or 8AM

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f045.gif

    0-3KM Helicity 9Z

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

    12Z

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f045.gif

    Note: SREF showing virtually no Cape.

    So is this threat real, or just meteorological bark,

  16. We have seen in the past sometimes quick tornadoes EF0 EF1 in these high shear low CAPE environments. Ryan wouldn’t tweet about a threat unless there is potential.
    Regardless of thunderstorm potential this opens the flood gates to the heat.

  18. Not for nothing, but this situation is similar to the set up for the Revere tornado
    a few years back. I am not saying it is exactly the same, but there are similarities.

  19. JPDave I was thinking the same thing. That tornado EF2 happened in the morning and not during peak time when a lot of our severe weather happens.

    1. Sure did. It was like 9:30 AM.
      I watched that cell pass by my office to Our North by a whisker. I could
      actually see the cloud base just starting to rotate. After viewing that
      I was glued to the radial velocity display and grabbed a screen shot
      of the rotation before the NWS issued the tornado warning.

      Here is what I saved: (Storm relative radial velocity display)

      http://i.imgur.com/yqRWy0g.png

  20. From NWS Taunton for Thurs
    The high shear low cape environment does suggest a low risk for lower lvl rotation given high moisture with low LCLs, something to watch.

    1. And the LCLs are EXTEMELY low like 150 meters.

      And NAM is showing up to 1,000 joules of elevated Cape with only a few hundred joules of surface based cape.

  21. The tornado chatter for Thursday is warranted, but only in the sense that it’s a non-zero risk. It’s the typical low end threat that we run here in tropical air masses with a front moving through. SRH is a little low compared to some cases when these setups have produced tornadoes, and there aren’t really any jet dynamics at work, which is a limiting factor. Still, there will be watchful eyes on the radar at the NWS on Thursday. You only need a little instability.

    1. Weatherwise, this has probably been the nicest May / June combination we’ve had in years.

      2. Tonight might be the nicest night in the history of the world.

        I know it’s hard to measure these things.

        1. I’m right with you. It is beyond spectacular….when you know for certain there is much more to what we can just see

  25. Based on the majority of the TV guys I think a lot of the public is going to be wondering where all the rain is on Thursday.

  26. Wave probably opens up a little faster than the guidance has. HRDPS is close, as is the 3km NAM.

  27. Very wide variation in forecast high temperatures across various outlets.
    The Weather Channel the lowest of the following:

    yahoo weather
    Noaa weather
    Dark Skies
    Weather Underground

    Either TWC is spit on OR so far out to lunch!

  29. All lights off and just the moonlight…..what a spectacular night. I hope everyone found their way outside for a bit.

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