Wednesday Forecast

76 Comments

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)
A warm front approaches today and passes tonight with more cloudiness (than previously forecast) but still not a bad day, and showers holding off until late evening and overnight, which will become more numerous through Thursday morning ahead of a cold front, which will pass through during the afternoon. But the air behind this front is not really much cooler than the air ahead of it. It’s more of a dew point boundary that will push out a wedge of high humidity that arrives overnight and early Thursday. So Friday will be less humid but will turn very warm as high pressure ridging builds over the eastern US. This sets up a hot weekend to end June and begin July. Forecast details…
TODAY: Limited sun through lots of high clouds. Highs 76-83. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving west to east late evening and overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and possible thunderstorms afternoon. Any thunderstorms can be briefly strong with downpours and gusty winds. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from near 80 South Coast to around 90 elsewhere.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, upper 80s to middle 90s elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather and this is a hot pattern for this area with mainly dry weather. Exceptions are disturbances that travel over the ridge, which will be centered to the west of New England, sometimes can bring brief thunderstorm threats. A weakening front may make it into the vicinity around July 3 and trigger a few storms. Also some coastal areas can cool at times due to sea breezes.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)
As high pressure ridging slides back to the west the jet stream will be allowed to sink southward and provide a few more shower and thunderstorm threats with more variable temperatures during this period.

76 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. I am planning on putting down some fertilizer and insect killer on my lawn tonight because if the rain tomorrow. Will we get enough rain for it to wash in?

    1. Do you put the insect killer all over the lawn or just the border? Our lawn company does a barrier for the ticks and fleas. Whatever they use is amazing. I think Sutton is the tick capital of the world.

      1. It’s the bug be gone stuff. I have a million ants in my yard and some are getting into the house looking for water. He have a huge tic Problem. My two yo and son both of Lyme disease. Huge deer population with no solution to control it.

        1. Ahh got it. We need to do our foundation for ants. Being on sand we also have a big ant problem. We are loaded with ticks and were pulling them off of ourselves and kids regularly until we had the treatment. If anyone goes over the boundary and onto the hill behind the house which leads to woods, it is guaranteed they will have at least one tick on them in a matter of minutes.

          Thanks for the bug be gone suggestion. I’ll see if it can be used on the foundation of the house for the ants.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    I’m in Northern New Jersey leading a workshop. It’s a pretty area close to the Hudson River. Lots of drumlins and some rock formations. I’m guessing this terrain was mountainous at one time, maybe 150 million years ago. Of course, no Tappan Zee Bridge back then or traffic jams, just dinosaurs. Drove down yesterday. Beautiful weather, but bad traffic. And maybe Connecticut drivers are worse than Massachusetts drivers. They’re masters at cutting people off and passing in the far right lane going 80mph plus.

    1. Sounds awesome, Joshua. You would be a great facilitator. And I detest that drive. Did you go down the garden state parkway and over the tappan zee?

  6. Thanks TK
    From NWS Boston/Norton, MA
    The two WRF
    models show 0-1Km Helicity at 300-500, but early in the day and
    well ahead of the best instability. If low level winds
    reach the upper end of the forecast, thunderstorms may generate
    some straight-line wind damage. If the low level helicity phases
    better with the expected convection, we may need to monitor for
    low level rotation, but that is the lowest likelihood at this
    time.

  8. Last and never least – I work my way down the comments – Thank you, TK, as always for the amazing job you do here.

  9. From Dave Epstein: “Yesterday and today are the two latest sunsets of the year. The sunset will be three seconds earlier tomorrow.”

    1. Thank you – I can plan to head to the deck 3 seconds earlier 😉 Although, the mosquitoes have finally found me

      1. I believe that we have already lost two minutes on the sunrises since the earliest one. 🙁 🙁

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So twister talk for tomorrow has died down and it looks like rain amounts
    are coming down as well (funny how one esteemed forecaster has been mentioning that all along????)

  11. Throwing out an observation, don’t know if it’s accurate …

    About 3 to 4 days ago, in the days 7 – 10 range, we saw the models projecting a 597 dm ridge, with W and SW surface winds and temps well over 100F.

    Then, Monday and especially Tuesday, as the projections came towards day 6/7 and the projected strength of the ridge eased back to 591 to 593 dm, the 850 mb temp projections cooled some and the ridge location bumped even closer to us, so sea-breezes under light wind flow became likely.

    I get the sense today that I’m seeing signs of a stronger 500 dm ridge, 594 to 596 dm, warmer 850 mb temps, back towards region wide +22C. The ridge position has held the same, so light seabreezes continue in play. But, not too far inland, I wonder if 97 to 100F is coming back into play ???

    1. Sunday-Monday would be the days.

      Boston is well beyond the 21C contour.

      Parts of NNE are within a circle of 24C contours at 850mb.

      However, this was the 6Z GFS, so we shall see.

  13. Vicki, I did indeed go the Tappan Zee route. Oh my, our roads are in bad shape. Worse than ever. And my car and tires feel it. I have a VW Golf Gti with tight (German) suspension. The car is definitely not meant for U.S. roads, and would be much happier in Germany (or Holland). I drove a Golf there, too. There are no potholes or bumps or anything really on German and Dutch roads except perfectly smooth surfaces. They know how to build roads. Period. They do it quickly and without much fuss. We don’t. We do it slowly and with lots of fuss and hassle. And no it’s not money. We pour lots of money into our roads, but we do everything inefficiently and piecemeal – a bit here, a bit there – and this makes no sense. If you do a road, do the whole darn thing, not just a mile or two. And certainly don’t patch up parts of the road. This leads to potholes and uneven surfaces.

    1. Not mention that it seems every time a road is resurfaced around here, along comes some utility crew (water, gas, sewer, cable you name it) to dig up the road
      and ultimately place a very poor patch on it. Repeat ad nauseam!!!!

    2. I sure agree with that. The worst is when they dump tar pebbles into a pothole and leave it lose in hopes cars will pat it down. Please enjoy your visit and your meeting.

    3. The old Tappan Zee Bridge scared me to death. The nice, new one was a relief to drive on. That said, I agree with your assessment of the country’s roads.

      1. A friend told me the same recently, Tom. We came home over the Tappan Zee the day of the Oklahoma bombing. It was truly nerve wracking between the bridge itself and the number of armed guards and trucks.

          1. It took us a long time to figure it out because radio service was sketchy. We finally stopped and called Mac’s parents after seeing most every major area guarded.

  14. I will be driving on the new Tappan Zee Bridge in a couple weeks when I drive down to Virginia for vacation. We got a lot of bridges in this country that are in bad shape.

    1. We sure do. Virginia is a lovely state. I hope your vacation is great. My youngest and her family are driving to Disney this summer. They are trying to decide whether to just go 95 or go the way you and Joshua went. We always went off the main road to 301 which took us to Richmond and missed Baltimore and DC. I detested the Garden State Parkway as did Mac. Have you ever just gone on 95, JJ? Or does 95 take you over the Tappan Zee?

    2. Nice and thanks, but I Nominate TK, even if a blog might be a stretch for
      broadcasting. 😀 😀 😀

  16. Back in the late 1970s I worked summers with my brother-in-law installing burglar and file alarms. The best job was installing alarms on a NY Thruway barge and tug under the Tappan Zee Bridge. These vessels were used in the maintenance of the bridge, including “nudging” the center span every now and then.

    From Wikipedia: “A unique aspect of the design of the bridge is that the main span is supported by eight hollow concrete caissons. Their buoyancy supports some of the loads and helps reduce costs.”

    People had been breaking into the ships at night. They stole electronics and navigation equipment. Even worse, they would sometimes untie the vessels and leave them drifting in the dark.

    A few times while we were working on the tug, they needed to do something and we got to go along for the ride.

  17. The 12Z GFS is cranking the heat back up.

    Has Eight (8) straight days of 90+ with the warmest Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
    with temps of 96, 97, and 98.

    CMC does NOT have a single solitary day in the 90s over the same stretch.

    So, Go figure!!!!

  18. Did you see that Tom? Just exactly what you were discussing earlier.

    But then the CMC sees things differently, so it is not cast in concrete just yet. 😀

  20. Raining here in Northern New Jersey. Vegetation here looks green and healthy. I think that they’ve received much more rain than we have during the past 2 months.

    Well, my world has indeed been turned upside down. No, it’s not the fact that a democratic socialist won in New York, or the fact that Kimmirut is still in late June very much a winter wonderland, it’s the fact that Germany has been knocked out of the world cup. Obviously, my prediction was wrong. But, I’m not alone. I think the vast majority of people would have said Germany will advance. This defeat will not go down well in Deutschland.

    By the way, I found this nice little clip from Kimmirut. I think it was taken last summer. Here, we actually get a chance to tour the village and see the people. I’ve always felt a kinship with this unforgiving place and its tough people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE71T_tsw94

    1. Cool. thanks.
      I noticed some of the children in tee shirts. I wonder what the temp
      was? 55 60?

    2. Joshua, ever since you posted a webcam of Kimmirut, I have been looking at it through the past year or so. I, too, love Kimmirut. I have no reason or heritage with it or the people but the photos and such make me feel like I have been there before. Never have – weird, ‘though. In any case, their webcam has been down for some time. Is that due to the unusual wintry weather at this time? Glad you are enjoying your time in NJ.

      2. That’s nuts !!

        What a run that was !!

        I trust it out to 96 to 120 hrs.

        After that, I’m sure the Euro and everything else can’t fully project what the trof off the west coast will be like. Right now, they are thinking deep, which is helping to build this new, second central USA ridge. We’ll see …..

        Seems first ridge was a bit further south. Noticing that low north of the Canadian border around Sunday/Monday. Hope those seabreezes happen while 850 mb temps are near 22C !!

  23. All day it has felt like rain and I know we won’t get any rain around here ’til early tomorrow. But it just feels and looks like a change is coming in the weather. And there is. It’s called HEAT. Wouldn’t mind 1 or 2 days of 90 degree weather with some humidity but anything more – no. Thinking of people like JP Dave’s wife – hoping she feels ok and it doesn’t get above 90 degrees and is gone after a day or 2. And thinking of the rain tomorrow. We can really use the rain and a little thunder and lightning is ok – but hoping for no severe weather.

  24. There’s going to be some interesting sea-breezes, if they happen, Sunday.

    I sense the models have backed away from lower heights and that weakness to the S-SE of New England, so I think these ocean breezes will be fairly light.

    And what will that very shallow top layer of ocean water get to for a measured water temp by Sunday or Monday afternoon in the light wind pattern ? 70F, 72F, 74F ????

  25. Eric just posted on twitter the record highs for the 4 major climate reporting stations in New England. He put red boxes around the ones he thinks may have a shot at being reached.

    He boxed in Hartford at 101F and (1,000 ft Worcester) at 94F for Sunday, July 1st and Hartford’s 99F for Monday, July 2nd.

  26. I think some models the past couple days may have eroded the ridge too much due to the mishandling of a tropical system to our south/southeast. NHC had been highlighting this feature for potential development but has now dropped it. This should allow a stronger, more dominant ridge, which the models are keying back in on. That is causing temperature projections to nose up again. No, it won’t be the GFS fantasy 110F, but it’s going to get hot around here, and the heat will have legs to last well into July as a broad heat dome engulfs the CONUS.

    1. Sea breezes, in our case any breeze since we have water on both sides, will be welcome if that is the case. Thank you WxW!

  27. Vicki to answer your question when I go down to Virginia I go I-84 to I-684 to I – 287 which leads to Tappan Zee Bridge then on to Garden State Parkway for a bit before getting on to the NJ Turnpike.

    1. Thank you, JJ. That is how we always went too. We took the merritt quite often too but then you are too far west in CT for that.

    2. I used to drive over the Tappan Zee years ago when son # 1 was at school in Baltimore. You my know this but if you end up further south on the Palisades Parkway there is quite an industry built around a speed trap on that not-so-long and winding road. I got hit with a big ticket there. So heads up!

  28. I have been looking at the construction on the new Tappan Zee Bridge and I look forward to driving over it in a couple of weeks. Hopefully Virginia will not be as hot as it was last year when couple days were in the 100s and heat index over 110.

      1. I’m ready to supervolcano myself. I hate media so much for this. I am beyond pissed off.

  30. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/12/magma-bubble-rising-under-new-england-volcanoes-science/

    Here is a better article from people that know what they are actually talking about.
    Its always been there. crust’s tectonic plates are always moving. Sometimes more extreme than others. Look at the Hawii islands, the islands form over a hot spot. this is merely a hot spot. Heck, some of the white mtns are growing and not shrinking. The geography of the earth in these terms take thousands of years. I think we are safe from any volcanic activities around these parts lol.

    1. Thank you. I was going to search for news about this but you saved me the work. NG has always been excellent.

  31. I think we solved the weather station problem. acuRite rep Marc and I both read an O as a zero. I had sent him the screenshot of what wunder sent me so I don’t feel quite as silly. Now to see if it shows up on wunder.

  34. NWS Norton/Boston
    Finally, meso models forecast 0-1KM helicity 100-200 this morning as the warm front moves through, then around 100 this afternoon during the time of greatest instability This suggests the chance of a rotating thunderstorm, which would increase the organization and chance for damaging weather. Would like to see higher helicity values before jumping on the chance of a tornado…at this time the chance of a weak tornado is non-zero, but low.

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