Thursday Forecast

180 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
A warm front passes through this morning and a cold front approaches later today. Most of the support for widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms lies with the warm front and we’ll see this with another round of soaking showers crossing the region through midday. During the afternoon activity becomes scattered to isolated, but any storms that do form can be strong, so we need to watch for that. All quiets down this evening and then we shift focus to the incoming heat, initially with lower humidity Friday after today’s mugginess, and then building humidity returns thereafter. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and possible thunderstorms afternoon. Any thunderstorms can be briefly strong with downpours and gusty winds. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Humid evening, less humid overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 inland. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from near 80 South Coast to around 90 elsewhere.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, upper 80s to middle 90s elsewhere.
MONDAY: Sunny. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to middle 90s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)
An old frontal boundary may trigger a shower or thunderstorms July 3. Another front may approach later in the period with a shower and thunderstorm threat, but otherwise it’s fair and hot as high pressure ridging dominates. Sea breezes may cool coastal areas at times.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)
As high pressure ridging slides back to the west the jet stream will be allowed to sink southward and provide a few more shower and thunderstorm threats with more variable temperatures during this period.

180 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Thank you, TK

    Some really interesting thunder here about 30 minutes ago. As deep as I believe I’ve heard. Shook everything. Since then just on and off thunder as the line seems to be riding up over this area. We are on the eastern side at the moment. 0.62 rain

  5. It must be cloud to cloud and not to ground. We are having a fair amount of lightning but it isn’t showing up on the lightning map

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks rather ominous out there. I checked the radial velocity display from my
    care before I left the house. I didn’t see any signs of rotation. Don’t want
    any surprises this morning. The rain is welcome, but we don’t need a spin-up.

    Can anyone answer this question for me.

    WHY oh WHY do the mets keeps mentioning the word spin-up. Why don’t they just
    say weak tornado or tornado period???? Even Eric said some of the storms
    may rotate an cause a spin-up. Then after that mentioned tornado but emphazied
    how LOW the risk was.

    The risk is so low that TK doesn’t even mention it. I wonder why it needs mentioning
    on air IF the risk is really that low????

    Just morning thoughts with coffee.

    0.20 inch in the bucket so far from this event. I’ll take it. Would like to pick up
    an inch.

    1. I’m guessing ….

      Could a spin up imply a rotating thunderstorm that doesn’t necessarily ever end up having a tornado, but because the advanced radar technology sees it, a tornado warning will be issued on it ??

      1. I don’t think that is it.
        He indicated that with the low-level shear that some storms
        could rotate causing a spin-up tornado. What the bleep
        is the difference between a spin-up tornado and a tornado?
        NONE as far as I can tell. I think it may be a term bandied about
        by mets when the tornado is caused by these type of conditions
        ie High shear-low Cape environment, as opposed to the classic
        High Cape-High Shear mid-West type set up. That would be
        my guess.

  8. Thanks TK !

    If I recall correctly, a few of our bloggers have said that they don’t have air conditioning.

    I happened to be in Ocean State Job Lot yesterday, and in the marshfield store anyway, they had a fair share of air conditioners in a display front and center.

    I admit I didn’t focus on the prices, but usually Job lot is known for its reasonable prices.

    1. They are VERY reasonably priced almost every where. They even had
      them at Roche Bros.

      Lowes and Home Depot have them at a good price.

      Sometimes it is not the price, it is the electrical set up in the home.
      Without spending a fortune to have the whole house re-wired, I can
      only use a limited number of ACs at one time. I cannot run 2 on the same
      circuit. I have it down to a science. 😀

      2. We had it to a science in framingham also. Along with either fans placed strategically or ceiling fans, you can keep a House very comfortable. And it is a lot less expensive than central air. My SIL installed a minisplit in a room over the garage but they are expensive too. I’d choose window ACs over those if I didn’t have someone to install at no cost, etc.

  11. It’s back!

    6z gfs BRINGS on the heat again

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018062806/gfs_T2m_eus_23.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018062806/gfs_T2m_eus_27.png

    It shows 90+ from this Friday through the following Sunday, 10 days in total.
    That would constitute a 10 day heat wave for Boston. What is the record for Boston?
    I thought it was like 8 or 9 days??? Here is what I found:

    BOSTON/LOGAN AIRPORT
    JULY 3-11, 1912 – 9 DAYS
    AUGUST 11-18, 2002 – 8 DAYS
    JULY 19-26, 1994 – 8 DAYS
    AUGUST 10-17, 1944 – 8 DAYS
    JUNE 28-JULY 5, 1872 – 8 DAYS

    So, it is 9 days.

    IF this GFS run verifies (Sea Breezes could nullify this run), then Boston
    “could” potentially witness its longest heat wave since records have been kept.
    (does not mean it hasn’t happened in the past, because it most likely has happened
    before)

    1. I agree. I fear lows in the City of mid to upper 70s, even perhaps approaching
      80. That 73 might apply to my location, but NOT downtown.

    1. Wow. Cool. I think. Would that mean it hit close and why is thunder a deeper sound?

      It was well before I checked the lightning map which is why it wouldn’t have shown up I suppose.

      Thank you.

      1. Sometimes they show up later. It wasn’t necessarily closer.. Positive lightning is about 10x stronger than negative (which accounts for 90% of lighting).

    1. Thank you, JJ. I am never sure if that means marginal for severe storms or if is for tornado activity only.

  19. Vicki 2% tornado chance your area and mine 5% for wind as well which is considered a low but non zero threat in those categories. With marginal risk your looking at locally strong or severe storm but nothing widespread.

  21. 0.54 inch in the bucket and counting.
    Ahhh say my shrubs and grass. ahhh, ahhh, ahhh….
    I hit the LIKE BUTTON!!!

    1. Nice! It has been a really good rain also. With only a few brief bursts, it has been consistent but gentler.

      We were up to 2.26 last I looked.

  22. How much destabilization can occur after the warm front passes is the question. Clouds are our friend today. This cold front coming through later is not going to provide a spell of comfortable weather unfortunately.

    1. Despite what surface maps show, Dew Point readings tell me the
      front has already passed. DP=68 at my house.

  24. Glad I picked this week to be gone. I know we need the rain but
    I’m glad I’m in the sun and heat.

  25. 1.04 inches and still counting. I am PLEASED!!!
    Saves me from watering. 😀 😀 😀

    I was hoping for an inch. Got it and more.

  27. Interesting discussion from Taunton NWS. This should be of particular interest
    to Tom:

    Puzzling is interpreting this pattern given negative EPO/WPO trends
    while the EC is modeling 594+ dam heights over the CONUS into early
    July, GFS upwards of 600 dam at H5. Looking simply like a heat dome
    synoptic situation, the airmass building day after day, heights
    rising, meandering with the steering flow. Other than heat, not much
    in the way of targets of opportunity, so will keep the discussion
    brief below.

    1. Thanks, I did read that as well this morning.

      I must admit I follow and know some about the PNA, but less about the EPO
      and WPO.

      I get the sense the implication here is that the phase they will be in usually doesn’t lead to a heat dome, as being projected ????

        1. EPO = Eastern Pacific Oscillation
          WPO = Western Pacific Oscillation
          That’s about all I Know. 😀

  30. TK,

    Your thoughts on possible sea breezes and/or a back door front during
    this “heat wave”???

    Some models, CMC and ICON indicate decent sea breezes for some of the days, while
    GFS does not. Euro appears a bit ambiguous. Could go either way.

    Thanks

  31. Flood Advisory for Boston through noon. IMO it should have included Boston from the beginning since earlier this morning.

  32. 1.18 inch so far as the phase of precipitation winds down.
    Will we get more this PM?
    Time will tell.

    However, batch of rain over RI “appears” to be rotating this way….

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25503315&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  34. Heavy rain with thunder during the morning here in Sudbury. Now the sun is trying to come out. Not always, but I notice when a warm front comes through in summer we can get heavy rain/thunder and if a cold front comes through some hours later, the cold front can come through with scattered thunderstorms and more of a wind threat than rain. I could be wrong but that’s what I recall in those situations. Hoping I am wrong and we get more rain with cold front passage with no wind or severe weather.

      1. Now it has clouded over here. Scattered showers all around on radar. Currently NWS has flood watch Boston and small area south and removed hazardous conditions from some areas; kept it in other areas.

  36. I have been getting breaks of sun here and there for couple minutes in last hour but clouds fill back in.

  39. 12Z GFS has now picked up on Sea Breeze for Sunday at least.
    High temperatures for Fri-Mon.

    Fri – 94
    Sat – 96
    Sun – 86
    Mon – 94

    I’d like to see what the rest of the run holds.

    Sea Breezes may prevent Boston (Logan) from an official heat wave, or at least
    the front end of the heat spell.

  40. I think the 12z NAM and 12z GFS show coastal seabreezes for 7/1.

    Interestingly, both models have that weakness back to the S/SE of New England again.

    1. Yup. Doesn’t mean it is correct. I sincerely hope that it is.
      I’ll take even the slightest relief offered.

      Btw, 86 at Logan, still means 95 at my house in JP.

  42. SCORCHER on 12z GFS for Sunday with 100s in the interior. I am sure twitter will be lighting up with that.

  43. It doesn’t help inland locations, but for coastal areas, it’s better to have the ridge overhead or very close by to help promote a light wind field with seabreezes.

    If the ridge flattens only a bit or sinks a bit to the south, then northern disturbances came close closer with possible southwest winds to send the heat right to the coast.

    1. For the GFS’ projection, not that it’s correct, I believe it has very high temps for coastal areas on July 3rd and/or 4th.

      1. Caused by what I’ve described above. A slight weakening and sinking southward of the ridge, allowing a disturbance to approach from the north and providing enough wind to cancel out seabreezes.

    2. to be certain….I am rooting for a ridge overhead and not one that flattens or sinks to the south?? Just making sure Mac gets that as well 😉

      1. Where you are inland Vicki, the more overhead ridge position will cause your temps to bake all weekend long.

        1. Oh, sorry, Tom. I have AC here so can spend a lot of time out and know I can get cool if I need to. The heat can affect me a fair amount although I still like it. I was thinking more about when we are at Humarock!!!

            1. Darn I need to be more specific. No. Not for a bit over a week although I’m nearly all packed. Im just planning ahead and was trying to figure out what to hope for

  48. Based on current projections I would be surprised if we did not see heat alerts go up for Sun and other days next week for a good chunk of SNE.

      1. I’m glad we got into the heavy showers now affecting the south shore. We largely missed everything this morning.

        It sure is soupy out there !

  51. Well, taking in today’s info, I think the seabreeze relief is going to be a day by day nowcast kind of a small scale occurrence to follow.

    Sunday, July 1st seems like a day highlighted for seabreezes.

    Other days will depend on the ridge’s strength and location and if northern disturbances can come close enough to kick up the land breeze.

    The other question is …. even in seabreeze locations, the column will still have an 850 mb temp of 20 to 22C. So, except for coastal Maine perhaps, how cool can the seabreee be ??

    1. I agree 100% and as far as how cool the sea breeze will be…. a couple of things
      1. The water is already in low 60s. With tomorrow’s sun and Saturday’s Sun,
      it will go up a bit for sure.
      2. On Sunday, assuming there is a sea breeze with ample sunshine, the surface
      temp will certainly approach 70. That air will be pushed towards the coast,
      warming a bit in its travels.
      3.Immediate coast will have temps probably low to mid 80s. Go back just a few miles and it’s pushing 90. Go back 5 miles and it will probably be mid 90s.

      Caveat…Only if it is a strong sea breeze will relief penetrate very far inland.
      If that were the case, then mid-upper 7os immediate coast to mid 80s 10 miles
      or so inland and 90+ beyond that.

      Just my guess and thoughts.

  52. I agree 100% and as far as how cool the sea breeze will be…. a couple of things
    1. The water is already in low 60s. With tomorrow’s sun and Saturday’s Sun,
    it will go up a bit for sure.
    2. On Sunday, assuming there is a sea breeze with ample sunshine, the surface
    temp will certainly approach 70. That air will be pushed towards the coast,
    warming a bit in its travels.
    3.Immediate coast will have temps probably low to mid 80s. Go back just a few miles and it’s pushing 90. Go back 5 miles and it will probably be mid 90s.

    Caveat…Only if it is a strong sea breeze will relief penetrate very far inland.
    If that were the case, then mid-upper 7os immediate coast to mid 80s 10 miles
    or so inland and 90+ beyond that.

    Just my guess and thoughts.

    1. Sorry, one of these went into Moderation, so I posted again and that
      went through. Earlier one went through later.

  54. Sun came out at full strength at 2:55, and now at 3:03 we’re back in the clouds. I sure hope thunderstorms fire up, I enjoyed this morning!

    1. They were great this morning. And the over two inches of rain was welcome

      Sun was out here a bit ago too but clouds moved in. It is still relatively bright

      Question is will the areas that saw the lengthy line this am be less likely to have more this pm.

      1. I put fertilizer down on my tomato garden last night, today growth is very visible 🙂 The more rain, the better. We need it, as we’re in drought, but we also need it because of the impending heat.

    1. He’s calling for 2 or 3 SEA BREEZE days in there. Hope so.
      In the SPRING I Loathe the East wind, Now I WELCOME IT.
      Funny about that, isn’t it. 😀

  58. 1.41 inches in ye ole rain bucket so far. Will the PM showers and storms propel
    my total OVER the 2 inch mark? Here’s hoping.

  59. Definitely still some wind shear out there. Storm near Easthampton right now has a little spin to it. Too broad and weak for a tornado concern for now, but I’m sure they’re watching it closely at NWS. This round will probably weaken as it moves east though.

    1. WxWatcher,

      Many bloggers here are rather visual and would love to see a screen shot
      of the weak rotation you are seeing. Is it convenient for you to do so.
      I know you may be mobile or otherwise unable.

      Many thanks

      1. Sure, these are the storm relative velocities from a few minutes ago. Nothing too alarming, but when you get a fairly symmetric area of greens and reds opposing each other, even if it’s weak like here, it’s worth keeping an eye on.

        https://imgur.com/a/BouF6LK

        1. Many thanks!!

          So that is a radar scope screen shot on the storm
          relative mean velocity display?

          I saw that, but I am generally looking for something
          a little tighter than that and wasn’t even sure that
          what I was seeing indicated weak rotation.

          Thank you for the explanation.

            1. Very weak, but yes. For a tornado you would certainly look for tighter and stronger rotation, but even detecting weak/broad rotation is important for forecasters, especially in cases like this where the rotating storms tend to be more “sneaky”.

              1. Many thanks. Most interesting.
                Once again, I have learned something here on this blog.

                btw, I absolutely love my
                Radar Scope App for my mobile device. I purchased it based on
                a recommendation from TK.

                Well, well, well worth the $9.95 price tag.

                Every blogger should consider
                purchasing it. It is more than outstanding!

  60. Just drove through the worst `gray out’ I’ve experienced since June 2000. The heavens unloaded over Southern Rhode Island – between Kingston and Greenwich. I-95 could not handle the deluge. Nor could my car. Hydroplaned several times (didn’t completely lose control, but if I was going faster I would have). Thankfully, most drivers, including myself, slowed down to 35-40mph. I-95 was under several inches of water, even in the left hand lane (right lane was far worse). I’m in Providence dropping off a gift. Glad to have a break. I cannot stand driving in driving rain. Worse than snow in my opinion. Ice is of course the worst, but I find heavy rain a close second.

    Silver lining: All that pollen that had accumulated on my car is gone. God’s car wash did the job, for free.

    1. Nice report Joshua. Thank you for sharing.

      I agree 100% with driving in a rain deluge. I’d much rather drive
      through a snow storm as well. Not to mention, many vehichles
      are hard pressed to keep up with de-fogging duties during soupy rainy conditions as you describe. 😀

      1. These storms mean business. Usually storms like this would usher in cooler air, but the opposite will happen. I’m wondering what made these storms so strong over SNE. The rain I drove through this afternoon is common in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, but I don’t think it’s as common in SNE, at least not a sustained deluge. I kept thinking I’d drive out or away from the storm. But, the storm hung over me for a good 20 minutes. Must have looked like a big yellow (perhaps red) blob on radar.

      2. I’m going to jinx everything and go out to pull my umbrella out of the stand. I’d leave it up but I’ve already dealt with three smashed glass tables in Framingham.

  64. Any thoughts on the Red Sox game tonight? Have a friend that has tix and he is kind of hoping they cancel.

    1. Just my guess and my guess only. I think they’ll get the game in.
      There “may” be a delay in the start of the game depending upon when
      these showers storms clear the coast.

  65. Sure looks to me like the showers/storms are fading fast.
    Unless conditions change (I don’t see that happening), What will be
    left of these as they approach the coast?????

    Perhaps we have seen all the rain we are going to see today????

    1. Maybe our sun will fire them up. We have a perfect blue sky with pure white clouds. But there is a wall of clouds to my south

      1. Amazed at the deep blue sky.

        Note how there is a distinct lack of haze. Very tropical
        as the wind flow is from the South, by passing land and possible
        pollutants that contribute to haze.

  67. Interesting cell around new Rochelle and Bridgeport.

    So would the areas that had action this morning be less likely to have it now? Seems lines are getting a bit weaker as they approach this mornings area.

  68. That storm you were talking about Vicki flooded out part of I -95 in Norwalk. Highway shut down in that area.

  70. This was a not a severe thunderstorm that produced this flooding on I -95. Thankfully nothing behind it so the water will be able to recede.

    1. It didn’t look like a t storm. More like heavy clouds but then it was far away

      Thunder to my south now

  71. Thankfully that storm in Norwalk was moving at a good clip but still sat over that area long enough to cause that flooding on I-95 in Norwalk. Atmosphere loaded with moisture with all this humidity.

  72. Heat records:
    In Taunton, we had a 10-day heatwave from August 10-19 in 2002. It hit 100 on August 14 during that stretch.
    Taunton had three 100-degree days in 2002, August 14, and back-to-back 100s on July 3 and 4, the only time it’s been 100 in two consecutive days.

    1. Congratulations on 35 years, that’s awesome !!

      Cartoon is priceless. I might have the frazzled look by Feb break 🙂

        1. Thanks. I really felt like the owl on the right at the end. The six weather days didn’t help!

  74. That summer was Brutal with the heat. We had 35 90 degree or higher days where our records are kept at BDL for inland CT. The next winter above normal snowfall including the Presidents Day Storm. Hopefully Mother Nature will make everyone happy like she did back then with giving the lovers of heat and humidity what they want and giving the snow lovers a great winter.

  75. This happens when you get rain that falls at the rate it did in that area. Radar estimated 2.5 inches of rain in 45 minutes.

    2. Clearing in just the right spot again. We had the yellow then it progressed to orange than partially revealed itself through the lower clouds. I’ll post a pic a bit later.

  77. CF .. Congrats on 35 and thank you for your dedication to what you do. People like yourself and Tom are often taken for granted but should be recognized and appreciated for your giant contribution to not only the present but the future of so many! This goes for the other teachers that are here on this blog, lurkers or otherwise! Thank you all!

    2. And let us not forget the Boston teachers who FINALLY had their very last day today. I assume the last ones in the entire state (MA) to begin their summer vacations all due to 6 snow days. Oh well. 🙂

      Congrats to you, Captain on 35 (long) years! 😀

    3. Thanks TK, Vicki and Joshua !

      I love the job ! No day is ever the same and the challenge of reaching so many different learning styles is what I like best.

        1. 14 years as a classroom teacher, 16 overall with a year of substitute teaching and a year as a Title 1 math tutor.

  78. Made it home a couple of hours ago. Much easier drive from Providence to Boston, but there were light rain showers, mist, and fog. Looked like the Moors of Scotland. It was quite `dark’ for June 28th. Gloomy from Northern New Jersey to Boston. And yesterday it rained off and on in New Jersey all day and night. We can’t complain, because we’ve had plenty of sun in May and June, but the past 2 days have been about as `dark’ as it gets this time of year.

  79. I so agree with TK and others’ comments on the greatness and dedication of teachers. To all those who teach, thanks for your service. It’s as important as other public services such as firefighting and law enforcement, yet I find that there’s less attention paid to teachers.

  80. Looking at the latest model runs …. a small scale feature might provide a short lasting, but noticeable cool push into eastern New England.

    Very small scale feature/circulation to come through sometime Sunday.

    On the surface temp projections, the cooling is very, very noticeable starting around (21z) 5 PM on Sunday, July 1st. All the way back to concord, NH to Worcester to Providence.

    If this happens, enjoy it. The 850 mb temps stay toasty warm and the cool wedge wouldn’t last long into July 2nd.

      1. 00z NAM run. It was on the 18z NAM as well and have seen it not as dramatic, but still there on the GFS

  81. everyone starts out their lives with teacher well, teaching. One of the most important jobs in the world, yet the pay check does not show it. I for one, of course had my parents but for those teachers that understand some kids it takes longer to learn, to make the environment as good as possible and to be fair. I had a great speech teacher in elementary school, the only other teacher on paw with her was my 5 grade teacher Mr. Connolly. Many of the teachers did not like me having extra time, because it was a hassle to them, he was different, He understood, He knew me well. He gave me some extra time with him. He also knew I was bullied alot and the one time I flipped out, he sent the other kid to the office lol. Knowing darn well who started it and what the kid was doing despite the blue arm. 😀 That to me is a good teacher, Now a days I probably be suspended for what I did because even if its for self defense you get in trouble apparently your suppose to just take it according to my cousin. Thing is When I did do it ” right” with telling a teacher or having my parents tell them it made it worse. When I stuck up for myself, I never heard another peep out of the kid as well as everyone else. The only reason I did not get in trouble was because the teacher understood what was going on, when teacher understands what is going on with the students, those teachers need a raise. Teachers that put their money into their class room deserve a raise. Teachers and scientists I believe all need to have better pay checks which does not mean raising taxes but taking the pool of money that is gained from the taxes and more evenly distribute it. 😉

    1. I’m glad mr Connolly gave you the time you needed. It’s important to know what the student knows and if a student needs additional time to show that, then they should get that additional time.

  82. Temp drop on NAM also seen on 00z GFS. Not quite as big on the GFS, but it’s there. Again, mid to late afternoon Sunday. That’s a day I wouldn’t like to have to forecast a temp for in eastern New England.

    I’ll be looking forward to that brief cool wedge arriving sometime Sunday on the campground.

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