Friday Forecast

81 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
When Independence Day falls on a Wednesday, there is a perfect reason to have TWO “Fourth of July Weekends”, and they are both included in this outlook, the first one rapidly approaching, and it will be hot and increasingly humid as an upper level high pressure ridge takes over the weather. In fact, other than the remotest risk of a shower north and west of Boston this evening with a weak disturbance, I now do not see any possibility of rain for the remainder of this period, just plenty of heat, although there will be episodes of cooling sea breezes in some coastal areas, especially Sunday and Monday as it stands now. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine, few clouds late. Highs 78-85 shorelines, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight risk of a brief shower west and north of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 62-69. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-82 Cape Cod, 80-87 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 66-75, warmest in urban areas. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-95 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes likely, especially east-facing shores which may drop to the 70s.
MONDAY: Sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s, warmest urban areas. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s but cooling in some coastal areas.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s, warmest urban areas. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s, coolest coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)
More heat and humidity, but the thunderstorm chance may increase somewhat toward the end of the period as the ridge center shifts a little to the west and a disturbance or two get closer to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)
Less heat, back to more seasonable temperatures as the ridge backs up further west and a couple disturbances move through with shower and thunderstorm chances.

81 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I can feel the HEAT building now. 77 as I drove in and I could really feel it as
    I walked through the parking lot.

    Dew point at home was 67, so any thoughts of it being drier today are out the window.

  6. A little something I put together to show the large discrepancy among models
    regarding daily high temperatures for Boston:

    https://imgur.com/a/fZp1JYF

    Euro does not go far out because my service calculates estimated high temperature
    based on 18Z temp. If the day in question only has 12Z and 0Z, then high temp
    is estimated by the 12Z temp which is useless, so I did not include. 😀

    1. Worth noting that last Night Eric indicated Significant cooling by way
      of vigorous sea breeze on Sunday. I guess we’ll find out.

      1. Don’t know WHY I never did that before. It is very easy to do.
        I thought of it on the drive into the office this morning. 😀

    1. Yesterday’s rain was MUCH needed and necessary ….. with that said, as it evaporates today and tomorrow under heat and light wind flow, it probably keeps the dewpoints a bit higher than they would have been without the 1-3 inches of rainfall.

      1. Makes sense.

        I generally don’t root for an East wind, but for the next
        week I am literally BEGGING for one. 😀

          1. If it gets too bad, we’ll move to a hotel.
            I am taking the whole week off just to make sure.

            1. The only issue I have with seabreezes around here is that they chill us off a bit too much in the spring. Otherwise they are most welcome in summer time HHH patterns like this.

  9. Logan’s wind just went light as did Marshfield and Plymouth.
    Sea breeze imminent? Or a momentary slackening of the NW wind?
    We’ll know soon enough.

  11. Thanks TK
    Something to keep an eye on for those traveling north this weekend. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Big time instability thanks to an Elevated Mixed Layer on Saturday night and Sunday morning over New England. Watch for severe MCS potential VT/NH/ME.

    1. Eric alluded to this last night as well, except he did not mention
      MCS, just that there could be thunderstorms up North.

    2. I’ll be in southwest Maine. I hope this either missed to the northeast or falls apart under the ridge.

  12. Latest HRRR projects a high temperature for Boston of 87 and keeps
    the sea breeze away today. That actually sounds reasonable, however, I do
    believe that Boston WILL touch 90 or above should the sea breeze not materialize.

  13. NWS Norton/Boston take
    One final note, for Sunday, are aware of a nocturnal MCS signal for the Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe. Will have to watch this closely as to whether with longevity the system steers more S with Corfidi vector flow, however confident with S progression it`ll become squashed beneath the building mid-level ridge.

      1. I have never heard of Corfidi vector flow.

        Will have to come back to this link later today and read it slowly, once the camper is set up. 🙂 🙂

        1. Are you in Maine already?

          You don’t waste any time do you?

          I honestly think you will enjoy the reading.

          Additionally, it will be interesting following the progress
          of the MCS.

  16. I guess a sea breeze is in play today….

    From NWS:

    Mixed layer temperatures will reach about 16-17C, supporting max
    sfc temps in the upper 80s and around 90.

    Models are also showing a weak pressure/wind field at the surface,
    which may allow a developing sea breeze along the eastern Mass
    coast during the afternoon. This would keep Boston/Logan Airport
    in the 80s while interior metro Boston would be around 90. Absent
    the sea breeze, coastal temperatures would be similar to the
    interior.

  17. That MCS tomorrow running into a strong offensive line and can get around it. The strong offensive line in this case is a heat dome over us.

    1. Have to watch out for a sneaky Dion Lewis type that may penetrate that line.
      Seriously, I think the chances of that MCS making it this far South is
      Slim and None.

  18. Looking at 12z NAM Vermont and New Hampshire should be keeping an eye on this tomorrow night. For people who don’t like the heat like me one good thing this heat is doing is keeping this potential MCS away from SNE tomorrow night.

  20. Logan has made it up to 84. Rate of climb has slowed, that’s for sure.

    NAM calls for high of 87 while 3KM NAM calls for 88.

  21. Hopefully the 12z NAM pans out for you JPDave and you get that backdoor front into your area Sunday

  22. This sounds good from the NWS office:

    Temps along the immediate coast a bit more tricky. Weak pres
    gradient would suggest sea breeze development a lock. However
    model soundings indicating deep blyr mixing would suggest WNW
    aloft mixing down to the surface. This may keep the sea breeze
    right at the land/sea interface or just offshore. Thus not
    expecting seabreeze to penetrate too far inland.

    Humid this morning with dew pts in the 60s to 70 along the south
    coast. However deep blyr mixing will promote drier air aloft
    mixing to the surface. This should support dew pts dropping thru
    the 60s and possibly into the upper 50s this afternoon
    especially across the higher terrain of the Worcester hills and
    Berks. Therefore becoming less humid as the afternoon
    progresses. Enjoy!

    1. Thanks for posting JPD and also thanks to TK. I enjoy the hot weather, but hope your wife finds some relief from it over the next few days.

  25. There is a very nice breeze. It is a lovely day. Although my daughter just said, “says rhe lady sitting in the shade.”

  26. I was so used to my pws not being on wunder that I forgot all about checking.

    I just looked and it is showing on wunder. South Sutton on the hill

      1. The initial problem was that both Marc from AcuRite and I read an O as a zero. That would normally bother me except I sent Marc the screen shot of what Wunder sent me and we actually decided together that it looked like a zero. Well, it wasn’t. Not sure what took so long after this since that was several days ago. Although, it could be that I kept forgetting to look since I’d given up.

        Seriously, I feel like a kid on Christmas morning.

        1. Pretty cool, isn’t it?

          I love having my station. I picked up a web cam
          and at some point hope to have that connected
          to wundermap. 😀

          1. I want a night vision web cam to see the creatures behind the house at night. I’d love to have one that works with the AcuRite. I had not thought that far ahead. Thank you.

  28. Stats and record geek that I am, I have done some research on 100 or 100+ degree days in the forecast area.
    My source is the NWS-Norton website, Climate and Past Weather link/Local Data/Records.

    This is what happens when World Cup soccer has a day off. I get in so much trouble! 🙂

    Boston has had 22 days in recorded history when the high temperature has hit 100 or greater. The first day in history was July 10, 1880 (101) and the most recent was July 22, 2011 (103). The earliest 100 was June 6, 1925 (100) and latest day was September 7, 1881 (102). The hottest day in Boston was July 4, 1911 at 104. Consecutive 100 degree days were July 3, 1911 (102) and July 4, 1911 (104). It also happened August 12 (101) and 13 (100), 1944.
    It has been 100 or greater on Independence Day twice, 1911 (104) and 1919 (101).

    Hartford has had 26 days at 100 or greater. The first day was July 3, 1911 (100) and the most recent was July 18, 2012 (100). The earliest day was June 26, 1952 (100) and the latest, September 2, 1953 (101). The hottest day in Hartford ever was July 22, 2011 at 103.
    Consecutive scorchers include June 30 (100)-July 1 (101) in 1964; July 6 (2010)-July 7 (100), 2010; July 19 (100), July 20 (100), July 21 (101), 1991 (three days).

  29. I will add and saw this last night on news Hartford averages a 100 degree day every 4.3 years.

  30. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan.
    Challenging temperature forecast on Sunday. Big storms Saturday night in VT/NH/ME put down an outflow boundary and cold pool. By Sunday, with weak synoptic flow, that is almost forced inland as a sea breeze. Some hope for marine influence and a slightly cooler day.

  31. Providence has had 18 days at 100 or greater. First was July 31, 1917 (100). Most recent was July 22, 2011 (101). The hottest day ever was August 2, 1975 (104). The earliest was July 6, 2010 (102) and the latest was September 11, 1983 (100). Consecutive days were July 20 (101)-July 21 (102), 1991 and August 11 (100)-August 12 (100), 1944. It has been 100 or greater 3 times on July 21 in Providence, 1991 (102), 1977 (100), 1980 (100).
    It’s been hot on July 22 twice, 2011 (2011) and in 1926 (100). It’s hit 100 or greater on August 2, 1975 (104) and 2006 (100).

  32. It’s hit 100 or greater on Blue Hill four times in history:
    July 21, 1977 (100), August 2, 1975 (101), August 9, 1949 (100) and August 10, 1949 (101).
    It’s only hit 100 or greater in Worcester once:
    July 4, 1911 (102)
    There is a listing for Westfield. However, much of the data is listed as missing. For what it’s worth, it’s been 100 or greater eight times since 2001 with the hottest day listed as July 6, 2010 at 103. The most recent day was July 17, 2012 at 100.

  33. July, 1911 in Boston must have been absolutely brutal and dangerous. These are the high temperatures for the first weeks of the month: July 3, 102; July 4, 104; July 5, 95; July 6, 101; July 9 94; July 10 98; July 11, 100; July 12, 96.

  36. Last post, I promise. While researching the incredible Fourth of July heat of 1911, I found this wonderful article about the featured July 4 baseball game between the local Whittenton nine and a traveling women’s baseball team called “The Bloomer Girls.” According to the funniest article I’ve ever read, most of “The Bloomer Girls” weren’t girls at all, but men in drag. The most bizarre thing of it all is that it took into the eighth inning before the Taunton team and the fans realized that their guests were men!
    Here’s the story!:

    https://imgur.com/a/tYsg03Y

    1. Do you by chance still have the story link? It isn’t clear enough to see on my iPad. Thank you!

    2. You can post all you want. These are truly fabulous.

      I think a promotion is called for.

      I think the next rank would be Major.

      🙂

  37. Excessive Heat Watches posted for interior parts of SNE Sunday morning through Mon evening.

  38. Wow – absolutely fascinating, Captain. I know Worcester has elevation to help but I was amazed it has been 100 or greater 22 times in Boston and only once in Worcester. So much for complaining about keeping records at Logan. The Blue Hills also surprised me. This is awesome.

    I’m off to read your article. Thanks again

    1. Sadly, not much better. I marked it to read when I get my computer up and going. I’m betting it will be easier to read there. I did find some interesting articles about the bloomer girls. What great fun

  40. Here’s the article about The Bloomer Girls:
    Whittenton (a section of Taunton)
    Bloomer Girls Base Ball Nine Play Game On Local Field
    Quietest July Fourth on Record at the North End – Personal Notes.

    The so-called Bloomer Girl baseball club proved to be a combination of men and women, some of the men wearing wings and posing as women. The game which was played against the Whittentoms ended in the ninth inning with the score 2 to 2, the Whittentons having the bases occupied when the visitors made a grand rush from the field and hurried away in a wagon. The Bloomer nine was not pleased with the gate receipts and wanted to quit in the seventh inning, but were persuaded to play one more inning, but when they saw defeat near, the entire squad threw up the sponge. A husky man who wore a wig and was called Hattie forgot to shave and his beard spoiled his makeup, giving the spectators the cue to investigate, which resulted in a number of fair ball tossers being found to be men. Lizzie, who played left field, was heavy weight who tipped the scales at a little more than 250 pounds. The Whittenton nine would have been easy victors if the game had continued.

      1. The 3km is far too cool in that forecast. It’ll drop the lower 70s at Logan late in the day then sit there most of the night or gradually cool into the 60s.

        1. I thought that is was a bit too cool. But lower 70s
          is quite a relief from the heat. 😀
          LOVE IT!!!

          Not sure we drop below 80 at my house. We shall see.

          1. It will be interesting to see what happens here in Hingham. If the wind is out of the east on Sunday that has it coming across 7+ miles of land here. If it’s a NE wind then its less than 2 miles to Hingham Harbor and a little over 3 to the Atlantic.

            1. similar here. ne is about 6 mi, east about 10-12, se over 20. we shall see and it also depends upon how strong it is.

              1. Yep…I like what you posted at 11:23 (NWS thoughts). There have been some days where I’ve been down in Hingham Harbor and it seemed like I was right on the dividing line…30 seconds of a seabreeze…30 seconds of a land breeze..and so on.

  42. I’m trying to get acclimated to the heat by running in it. Not in the middle of the day, but early morning and early evening. Still tough. In fact, brutal. I’m still gulping water more than 2 hours after my run. Also, how many of you experience a dazed feel when walking around in the middle of a hot day? I’ve had that for the last two decades. Maybe like JP Dave’s wife? I know Blackstone loves it. I sort of wish I had his constitution, but I clearly don’t. Well, I don’t ever wish time away, but I do remind myself that we’re only 9 weeks removed from what I consider the most beautiful season of all.

    1. I can have that dazed feeling and a touch of nausea. And complete lack of energy. But it matters if you have AC. I suspect the majority of those who enjoy HHH have AC or a means to cool. My girls far prefer HHH. Mac would say he preferred no snow if pushed but didn’t mind anything really.

    2. Drink more water, and add some sugar. Your dehydrated and loosing sugar and salt. Some loss is fine, but to much and you get dazed and the next step is passing out. I sometimes get this feeling, especially since 2012 when I injured myself rather bad. When you injure yourself body sometimes change, especially your dietary and fluid intake requirements. This also unfortunately comes with age and how use to the warmth you are. Someone in Florida would do just fine in this type of heat generally.

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