Sunday Forecast

190 Comments

7:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)
No big changes, just a few adjustments to yesterday’s post. Slight, and I mean very slight, weakening of the westward push of the boundary but it will still create a wind shift and some cooling later today, and this will actually take all the way until early Tuesday to reverse itself, so the heat potential for Monday is somewhat tempered as well. Tempted to introduce isolated air mass storms Tuesday and Wednesday but will hold off for now. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 79-86 shoreline and 87-95 elsewhere but falling back through the 70s immediate coast and through the 80s for up to about 20 miles inland from east-facing shores during the afternoon. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to E and NE.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-71. Wind light E.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 immediate shore, 86-94 interior. Wind light E to SE becoming S late.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s, warmest urban areas. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s, coolest coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s but cooler in some coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s but cooler in some coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)
Indications of a little quicker timing of a front that can bring a thunderstorm threat by later July 6 after one more hot and humid day. Weekend of July 7-8 currently looks less hot, still warm, and drier, with similar weather July 9 before a disturbance brings a shower and thunderstorm threat by the end of the period. Timing uncertain as always so far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)
A couple passing disturbances bring changeable but overall seasonable temperatures and a couple thunderstorm threats during this period. The pattern will feature the ridge of high pressure having backed up to the west and a weak trough in the Northeast carrying the disturbances.

190 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!
    NWS Boston/Norton mentioning the possibility of severe weather Friday. Plenty of time to watch that and will change so many times between now and then.

  5. According to Barry, refreshing air next weekend, as soon as Saturday. Welcome news to say the least.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Apparently Logan hit 92 yesterday evening on a late wind shift. So, questionable temperature sensor aside, they’ll get an official heat wave today. HRRR brings the boundary in around 2-3PM.

    1. last night Jacob said the wind shifted and Logan hit 92 at 6:21 PM. It was 92 or better here all afternoon.

  7. Just taking a look around the models.

    Pretty much ALL agree on the cooling today, but differ on the timing.
    Latest HRRR has it around 2-3 PM, RGEM around 3-4, NAM around Noon or a bit later. GFS the latest as it has Boston reaching 102 before cooling. Yeah right and I’m Santa Clause.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018070106/gfs_T2m_eus_3.png

    So, now I am waiting for it. Will Logan crack 90 before it arrives? It will be a race.
    Logan may shift to East even before the boundary arrives. 😀

    1. Also, despite what the NWS said, there is much cloudiness out there.
      Not going to reach those levels without the sun.

  8. No cooling today where I am unfortunately. Under an excessive heat warning with heat index values mid 100s.

  9. Good Sunday morning and thank you, TK

    81 with 72 DP as of 8:45

    Last night was truly lovely to be out. A light breeze kept a comfortable summer feel. Inside, even with AC, house struggled to stay below 79/80

  10. Has Logan reached 90 or better 3 days in a row yet? With all the talk of sea breezes it is hard to keep track. It seems to be able to do it (almost) in spite of the breeze.

    1. Yikes. That DP is creeping up. Hope you are keeping cool, Scott. Not sure I’d you saw that I finally have my station showing up in wunder. Thank you for your help. I did do everything in the manual you sent me. Turns out I mistook an O for a zero in the ID.

  14. 88 at 9:50 with 75 DP. Yesterday same time it was 86 but DP was 66. Wind is feeble at best. Still filtered sun

  17. On the 00z EURO, the relief at hr 168 (day 7) doesn’t look like it may last too long.

    Back to 18 to 20C (850 mb temps) by hrs 216 and 240. (days 9 and 10)

  18. Portland, ME at 10am …. wind went variable.

    84F, dp : 72F.

    The high clouds have thinned or largely moved SSW of us and the sun has strengthened considerably.

    It’s hard to tell, but I sense our wind has gone light E.

  19. The Hingham Center Wunder Station (using Ambient Weather WS-900-IP (Wireless)) is showing a temp of 89 (which is probably right or darn close) but a dew point of 81..can this be right???!!!

  21. Logan’s wind just went very light EAST and temp dropped to 88.
    Is this the boundary or just a result of the relaxed gradient?

  22. Just wanted to throw this out there ….

    If you are familiar with Hull and Nantasket Beach …..

    Stay on the main road in Hull, go past Nantasket Beach and take the road all the way out to its end.

    At the end, there will be parking and it’s usually cooler out there because there’s Ocean all around you.

    There is a small take out restaurant out there that has a few tables in shade.

    The views of Boston harbor and Boston are awesome.

    There is not a lot of shady spots out there, but I’d imagine to be a cooler spot.

    1. Affectionately known as Hull Gut.
      Visited that sight often. Fished there many times.
      and yes, Awesome view of Boston. 😀

  23. Logan to 90 before 10AM is impressive. Would be curious as to how many times that has happened before.

    Seeing a lot of posts about dew points. Be warned, many automated weather stations run high on their dew points. Davis weather systems are among these (mine included, which is always ~2-3 degrees high), and Keith, there’s no way that 81 is legit. Vicki, yours seem pretty accurate. If in doubt, find your nearest ASOS site, and compare with them. The ASOS dew points tend to be very good. Most of them in our region are 69-72 right now. If you’re more than two degrees above your nearest ASOS, chances are your sensor is a little off.

    1. How do,you find an ASOS site? I compare mine to other wunder stations around but then theirs could be off also.

      1. The easiest way is to type your town into the NWS forecast page. The “current conditions” that pop up will be taken from the nearest ASOS. In Sutton, for instance, Worcester is the closest, although Sutton is rather far removed from any ASOS compared to most places around here. Most of these also only update every hour, so there is some wiggle room, but it should be pretty close.

        https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.13760000000008&lon=-71.74730999999997#.WzjqOBYpCEc

        1. Thank you Wx. That is what I found but thought it had to be wrong since it is reading a far too low temp. After captains post yesterday showing Worcester as only having reached 100 once I lost a bit of confidence in its representation of this area.

          I’ve also found that betweeen my house and Sutton center the temperature can vary three degrees consistently. The wind is also typically greater in the center of town. I wonder if the different elevations make a big enough difference in this area.

    3. That’s what I thought too WxWatcher..thanks. most other reporting stations are in the low to mid 70s.

      1. Word of advice. Make sure not too it the O is ASOS when searching. You get a bunch of interesting hits

  26. My AcuRite dp sensor is reading 72 and I have every reason to believe that
    is pretty darn good.

  27. Today “officially” begins the 2018-19 snow season! One hailstorm could get things started. 😉

  28. Am out and about. Thought I felt a faint East wind at home. Will check when I return. It is HOT out here.

    1. I’ve been feeling that back and forth here for the past half hour or so. Temp is at 93 here.

    2. Nope, no East wind here, though I swear I felt it earlier!

      Time to bring out the correct descriptive word….

      Today is a STINKER!!

  30. Good grief!!

    My AcuTite DP sensor is reading 77!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I see that most readings are around 73 and I saw a couple at 75.

    My temp sensor is reading 97, which i know is a few degrees high. I think it
    is 94 or 95.

    now sensors went to 98 with dp 79!!!!

    It is about as humid as I have ever felt in my life! Even if my sensors are a bit high,
    it is BRUTAL OUT THERE! BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  33. The HRRR has today’s temperatures ALL WRONG!!!
    It says boston temp at 16Z would be 84 HA. It is 90!!
    Off by 6. go try again HRRR!

  36. Norwood and Keene, NH now each reporting 97.

    Likey some place(s) reaches or exceeds the century mark today.

  37. The fact that Logan has hit 90 in spite of a decent east wind, this must be one HOT airmass. So much for any “relief”.

    1. I don’t want to know what temps would be like at Logan with a due west wind. I imagine record territory?

  39. DP’s 68-75 as of noon, high location is Bedford MA.
    Hot spot is Orange MA at 94. This is good weather to see what the limits of home weather stations are and know when you need calibration. If you are reading DP’s above 75, it’s too high. Under 68, it’s likely too low. Nobody should have a temp 95 or greater as of noon.

    1. As of 12:$0 from the NWS network:

      Norwood 97
      Keene 97
      Westfield 95
      Hartford 95
      Taunton 95
      Boston (logan) 90

      Most dps are 73-75. but I see a DP of 77 at Hartford.

      1. Hartford maybe, but maybe not. I’ve noticed that one reading high a lot lately.

        I don’t buy Keene or Norwood. Logan is at least 1 too high today.

        1. Is there really much of a difference between 89 or 90 as far as how us humans feel? 😉

  42. East wind taking over at the shore, soon to spread some distance inland. No dramatic temp drop. This isn’t a classic back-door. It’s an old outflow boundary from last night’s storms. Noticeable coast, somewhat noticeable for several miles inland, but not dramatic.

      1. Not really. Maybe a few degrees as some of the air dried out on descent from the storms.

  43. I believe the record for Boston of 90 degrees or higher is 9 consecutive days. Do we at least tie, if not break it?

    1. If they do, it’s not genuine. It never got to 90 there Friday even though the thermometer said they did. But even with that, I think they will miss it tomorrow, and if they don’t, they will get to 8 maximum.

  44. Thank you, TK.

    Well, almost exactly six months after we hit the trough of winter temperature-wise – remember that stretch of sustained cold – we’re in the peak of summer. I believe that 6 months ago we had a consecutive streak of 10 days below 22F in Boston. Currently, we’re `enjoying’ a 10-day stretch of maximum temps over 90F. In late December and early January we endured several nights of below 0F (I think Boston’s official lowest low last winter was -3F). And now we may eclipse 100F at some point during this heat wave.

    1. Boston won’t hit 90 for 10 straight days. Even if we include Friday’s “false 90” (the high was really 88), then the max will be 8 days there.

  46. As of 1:30 Keene reporting 99
    Windsor Locks 97 (I had mistakenly reported Hartford before)
    Westfield 97
    Orange 97
    Norwood for some reason down to 95 (reporting ESE wind)
    Logan ESE wind at 10 mph temp still 90

  47. 87F, dp: 74F. Heat index : 95F. Sanford, ME

    Amused by the 91F and light east wind at Logan.

    It’s nasty up here, it must be brutal down there.

      3. Tl have you an accurate trusted mobile temperature sensor?
        You should park yourself next to their sensor and compare, seriously.

        Not for nothing, but I always wondered about their sensor.
        With my old Oregon Scientific thermometer, my readings were
        always 2-3 degrees below Logan. hmmmm

      4. What do you use TK to measure the temp in Boston? I’m trying to figure out how that works. Thank you, Sir?

        1. I don’t measure the temp in Boston. They just need to calibrate. It’s a very simple fix. 🙂

      1. I remember a stretch in the Summer of 1982 that had a couple days lower 90s dewpoints 75-80. DP reached 81 at Worcester one of those days.

        1. Funny, I don’t remember 1982 at all. 😀 D: 😀
          No mAtter, it is still nasty out there today.

          1. I remember it being old enough to snow in June of 1982. I don’t recall later in summer.

  48. I have somebody looking into the 4 stations I have called into question, especially Logan. The just taking what the instruments say as automatically correct needs to stop. This is a big deal to me and should be for the sake of climatology.

  49. I have brought this up and had people (not here) jump on me about being anti-climate change. I’m going to say this one last time.
    THIS
    HAS
    NOTHING
    TO
    DO
    WITH
    MY
    TAKE
    ON
    THE
    CLIMATE!

    This has to do with ACCURATE STATISTICS for the sake of monitoring the climate! It is extremely important!

    1. I am a fanatic about accuracy….to the point I drive myself nuts. When i first started weather spotting for toss gross he had me get one of those mercury thermometers that shows high and low for day. I had to calibrate it by using ice water to set the temp. Being a chemist and a stickler, Mac worked with me. It was not easy. Todd told me when I started reporting I was off by 2-3 degrees compares to others around. I stopped reporting until I found a better method. It because it upset me because it bugs me not to be accurate.

      1. Yes. Maybe in the grand scheme it’s not such a big deal. But while we are here, it is…

        1. Maybe my wording was off. I sure didn’t say it wasn’t a big deal. I said I personally hate not being accurate. I’m still trying to figure out how you know. In hindsight, I’m not sure how Todd knew. A couple of degrees is location dependent within a very small area. I mentioned that earlier with regard to the difference between south and center Sutton

          I’m not questioning it …it is just my natural curiosity

  51. 17Z HRRR has Boston down to 79 by 3PM. yeah right and not only am I Santa Clause
    and the Easter Bunny!!

    The HRRR is out to LUNCH! It is not even initialized correctly.

  52. Aside from the Keene Hot spot, the going high temperature seems to be 97
    at about 1/2 dozen reporting stations.

  53. Here is the official 2PM Keene Observation:

    Keene, Dillant-Hopkins Airport, NH
    (KEEN) 42.9N 72.26667W

    Fair
    100.0 °F
    Last Updated: Jul 1 2018, 1:56 pm EDT
    Sun, 01 Jul 2018 13:56:00 -0400
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 100.0 °F (37.8 °C)
    Dewpoint: 73.0 °F (22.8 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 42 %
    Heat Index: 111 F (44 C)
    Wind: Calm
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1017.1 mb
    Altimeter: 30.01 in Hg

    1. Awesome. Thanks. Once I make sure my numbers are accurate and my smart hub stops losing signal, I think I’ll petition for this to be an official Sutton temp. 🙂 🙂 😉

      On a serious note. JPD does your web cam need to be hard wired? Or is it wireless?

      1. It will work either way, but I was having trouble with it
        and set it aside. At some point I’ll get back to it, perhaps this
        week as I am Off. 😀

  55. Walking into a wall of heat when you step outside.
    Will see if we could end this heat with a bang on Friday with some thunderstorms.

  59. Logan at 84. NOT NOT NOT feeling that here as of yet. I AM WAITING…..
    When I feel it, up go the windows!!!!

    Just installed a big 8,000 BTU mobile AC unit in the living room so we can
    watch TV later. It was pretty warm trying to watch last night.

  60. Dp has come down some with that East wind at Logan as TK said it might.
    Just not having any affect here at all, at least not yet.

  61. I see a 79 dew point reading in Glenns Falls, NY!!!

    INSANITY!)@*#*!)(@*#()!@*#(*!@(#*!)@(*#()()!@#

  62. Just went outside for a bit.
    NICE EAST WIND blowing here. Must be 10-15 mph as it can really be felt.
    Now I wonder HOW long it will take to start dropping the temp???
    fist sign is that I have notice the DP drop 2 degrees. I suppose that is a start.
    Not showing much if anything so far.

  63. My station is showing a temp of 93 and a dew point of 79. The temp seems accurate, but the dp must be off a few degrees.

      1. I’m a firm believer of you take care of your guys I’m running a very , very successful operation because of there hard work and loyalty. Take care of the men & they will take care of you .

        1. Get that message to corporate America and we will all be in a better place. Nice job SSK

  68. The east wind is “feeble” as Keith said. Ocean is warming up fast. Sharks are back. Ocean will continue to warm until September, and even then cooling tends to be a slow process.

    Someone asked about Nantucket:

    On June 21, 2012, Nantucket recorded its warmest temperature at 91.9F. I believe the island hit 91F on the 22nd of June. Also, on the 6th of July 2010, Nantucket recorded 91F. But, that’s it as far as 90F plus days.

  71. It’s been steady at 96 here in Taunton.

    Dave, how’s Mrs. OS doing? Been thinking about her today…

  73. Hit 97* for the high here in Chelmsford. Currently 88* with a DP of 71*. It’s been super gnarly outside 🙁 I know there are people who love it, but I’m not among them. Hoping JPD’s wife is comfortable!

  75. 99 at my house in Amherst 99 at the Amherst College Weather Station, 100 at Umass CS weather station. 96-100 at the 3 closest NWS sites.

    What as made today so different than yesterday are DP’s 72-76 and calm winds. Yesterday DP’s 62-65 with gentle 5-8 mph breeze.

    Still not quite the 110-113 high the GFS advertised 7-8 days ago, but overall can’t complain about that model’s performance mid spring through now.

    1. What I really don’t like about the GFS is that it will take location X and forecast 106 107 106 97 106 for 5 runs. This random somewhat reasonable run mixed in with a bunch of way-too-high ones. I want to like the GFS more than I do, but it’s been too shitty for what I think should be expected. I want better performance from it. 🙂

  76. The pattern…
    Hot ridge through mid next week. Late next week we go back to the dominant pattern of ridge further west and low amplitude mean trough Great Lakes to Northeast. Beyond that starting to see signs of what I think the second half of summer will hold, and that is hot ridge West, trough Midwest, western Atlantic ridge a.k.a. Bermuda High.

    1. Yes agree on pattern

      I have been frustrated with over amplification on ECMWF, consistent cool bias, oversell on QPF, and way too slow on shortwave progression.

      As for the GFS – I call it GFS silliness to sensible outcomes translation

      1. Agree agree. ECMWF has been no slam dunk either but for those reasons.

        The GFS biases are known enough that at least you can adjust with less questioning.

        1. Yes I guess you just articulated my issues with the ECMWF. It is not that these issues exist, it is the lack of adjustment made by forecasters and with now broad availability, the public, to its output.

  77. With the 88 temp and 10 mph breeze, I figure I can put my dinner outside and it’ll be just like. Convection oven 😉

  78. Just enjoyed a dinner outside, off the grill, in a very refreshing easterly breeze here.

    1. It felt that way earlier here now right around 79-80 at most of the Hingham reporting stations. Feels nice.

  80. 84 and a now minimal breeze. But nice to sit out….in good part because I have AC to return to. Same as winter. I can sit out every night but know I have heat to return to. For those who have neither….well, goes without saying

  83. a nice east/NE wind on the island. temperature is at 68 degrees. Highs tomorrow Low to mid 70s.

      1. I know, but to be honest, I do not mind the heat when I am near the water. You never really feel that humid feel around the water and the humidity is what hits me hard. Problem with this island is that I had an allergy attack last night lol. So what I am allergic too is some where on this island.

  84. Here’s hoping for some relief today.
    Dew point came down some to 66.
    Temp now is 73.
    HRRR advertising a much cooler day along the coast. I’ll believe it when I see it.

    Had some bad luck with ACs yesterday.
    The 8,000 Btu mobile unit I installed did not perform at all.
    Either it is defective OR it is not an 8,000 BTU unit because it could not handle it
    at all. It was pumping cool air, but not enough.

    I went to home depot, Lowes and Best buy and none of them had the unit I needed. They either had none, or huge units or small units.

    I tried an older window unit I had in the attic,
    8,000 btu AC. I got it in and the damn thing would not turn on.
    Ended up with the mobile unit that even after dark barely cooled the room
    so we could watch TV. It was uncomfortable. Just not cool enough.

    Now I am searching for a new AC after they had a run on them this weekend.

  85. A little something from the NWS

    It is worthy to note that observed values for Boston come from
    Logan Airport, which is on the Harbor. Also, values for
    Providence come from T F Green Airport which is a short distance
    from Narragansett Bay. Western parts of Boston will be warmer
    than Logan Airport. Much of the city of Providence, being
    farther away from Narragansett Bay than its airport, will be
    also be warmer.

    1. So the NWS said this out of the blue? Granted, it’s stuff most of us knew anyway. 😉 Especially here!

  86. And what about those Sox? What a STINKER last night to lose 2 out of 3 from the Yankees. I would have to say that the Yankees are a superior team to the Red Sox.
    Unless the Sox acquire a bit more help, I am afraid they are doomed. Even if the
    make playoffs, which they should, they will not beat the Yankees.

    1. I think they are pretty even but each team has weak spots that glare more at times. Playoffs could go either way.

      1. Not, without changes, I believe you are wrong on this count.
        The Sox would lose to the Yankees.

        1. At this point I think the Yankees have a little more depth in their relief pitching…Starting pitching I’ll still give the nod to the Sox despite Price blowing chunks last night. The Yankees have a little more power hitting but the Sox hit better for average. Really pretty close as the standings indicate.

  88. Thank god the NWS let the world know there observation stations are at places where people are transient and not actually where most people live, work, and play. Not sure that will ever change but it would be nice to have an observation station at the Common or in Back Bay or West Roxbury as well. Like NYC has a Central Park Station.

    Not sure we will see much of 95-100 after this week, possible, but not probable. However, I can see lots of 87-92 inland temps.

  89. Sorry to hear about the AC issues JpDave.

    It’s (77F) 4,300 ft up the Mt Washington Auto Road

    We got some cooling overnight and we’ll take it. Ironically, the heat advisories are hoisted furthest east by Grey, ME in the 3 days we’ve been here …..

    Cloudy now up this way.

  90. JPD – for what it is worth, our central air could not keep up with the heat so it may not be your AC….although, it certainly may. We were 80 in the house in the evening and a friend who does not have AC was at 82 in his house. We have several reasons why our system struggles but it is still central air.

    How is Mrs. OS doing? I was thinking of her in the night.

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