Irene – Sunday Morning Update #1

24 Comments

3:31AM

As of 3AM, Hurricane Irene maintains top sustained winds of 80 MPH near its center, but continues to have a very widespread wind field of tropical storm force winds and hurricane force gusts. The center has been over water just offshore of the Delmarva early this morning and will continue to track over water just offshore of New Jersey, accelerating north northeast with a gradual turn more to the northeast. This will take the center to western Long Island NY later this morning as a minimal category 1 hurricane. The center will then cross western to north central CT, west central to central MA (probably passing not too far west of Worcester MA) then up across southwestern NH where it will cut across central NH and into and across Maine by tonight, weakening and beginning to lose tropical characteristics while accelerating.

Specifics…

Rain: Expect the heaviest and steadiest rain west of the storm track with more showery but still at times very heavy rain to the east. A finger of very heavy rain that is a bit longer lasting may lift across the Boston area between 10AM & 1PM. Expect rainfall amounts 1-4 inches east of the track, 4-8 inches to the west, with locally heavier amounts. River flooding most likely in the heavy rain areas to the west. Rivers east of the center will not likely flood and should handle the rainfall fairly well. Poor drainage flooding will be a bigger concern in these areas during and shortly after the heavier rain periods.

Wind: East of the storm track, winds mostly from the southeast to south, often tropical storm force, top gusts 40-60 MPH with locally stronger, except gusts around hurricane force likely along the South Coast and some of the higher elevations (Blue Hill, for example). The strongest winds should occur from shortly after dawn on Sunday until shortly after sunset Sunday evening, but strong gusts may continue as the wind shifts more to the west in areas that were east of the storm track well into the night. West of the track, expect northeast to north winds 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, but strongest winds there will be northwest to west behind the storm, 25-40 MPH with stronger gusts, likely over 50 MPH for a period of time Sunday evening. Considerable tree damage is expected from this event, because it has been a while since such a storm, and the ground is saturated from heavy rain before the storm, making the soil softer around bases of trees.

Storm Surge: 4 to potentially 8 foot storm surge flooding on the South Coast, especially the bays, with the morning high tide. A second surge with the evening high tide will likely be to a lesser degree. East-facing coastal areas will see a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet with the morning high tide as the winds will be most onshore at that time. By the evening tide, the winds will be blowing more from the land toward the water so storm surge flooding will not be an issue, but splash-over flooding may still occur due to the very rough seas and waves.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible in heavier rain bands this through early afternoon, especially from the Boston area and Merrimack Valley to southeastern MA including Cape Cod and the Islands. These are usually very weak and short-lived, but still significant enough to add to wind damage. These kinds of tornadoes are spawned from low level wind sheer (change of speed and/or direction of wind with height) that is set up when friction near the ground slows the wind speed and turns it more toward the center of the hurricane and winds above the ground are fast-flowing and more parallel to the storm center.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Areas of dense fog early. Overcast through early afternoon with numerous tropical showers including some downpours. A period of very heavy rain is expected sometime in the 10AM-1PM window. Mostly cloudy mid through late afternoon with additional tropical showers, heavy at times. Brief sun may appear between showers. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind SE increasing to 25-45 MPH gusting 40-60 MPH, occasionally stronger, shifting more to S and eventually SW during the day. Isolated tornadoes are possible from mid morning through early afternoon.

TONIGHT: Rain and showers ending from south to north with breaking clouds before midnight and clearing overnight. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH, still may reach around 50 MPH over exposed higher elevations, diminishing somewhat overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and still humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH early, diminishing slowly.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 58-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High 74-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84.

24 thoughts on “Irene – Sunday Morning Update #1”

  1. Thanks for the update TK !!

    4 hrs of sleep, ready to go (I think). After hitting NC, which has been seen many times, cant believe a chance to watch on radar a fairly intact center parallel the coast of New Jersey……The radar presentation is still pretty good and the pressure, pretty low, 958mb.

  2. TK, thanks for the update. I usually walk 3 miles every morning but somehow you are convincing me to take a pass on it today especially since I have to walk under lots of trees.

  3. Last night I received .05 of rain and the average 10 min wind speed was 2. Very very exciting night for us.

      1. Hi Coastal,

        Wind gusts are picking up here…6am report for Marshfield is gusting to 25 and I believe it. Tropical storm force wind gusts now reporting on Marthas Vineyard, Nantucket and RI Coastline.

        1. I tokk I drive this morning and noticed it was much windier in the tree’s. My wind gauge is 12 fee from the ground. I am definately noticing a increase though.

          1. I heard on the news today that when the heavy rain bursts come through, the stroger the winds will be. So far that is what I am seeing.

  4. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tides2.shtml

    Check out the Bridgeport, CT guage and already they have about a 3 ft surge….the tide is coming in and the wind is steady from the east pouring the water into Long Island Sound. Compare that with Boston, which currently, is about .75ft above normal and at the time of this post, is at low tide.

      1. Good morning Tom- Well It’s just about time. I bet the ocean is not calm now. Tom as I type I believe I may of just heard thunder. Light rain here, at 7:oo when I woke up It was pouring.
        Tom It is thunder- heading out to check, be back.

          1. Tom It poured for about 5min did not hear the thunder again. During the heavy rain burst the wind really picked up.

  8. Going to be quick. I have slept little 3 days….

    Storm is S/SE in NYC and will pass over or just to the east of NYC around 9am. Moving about 25-30 mph to the NNE. Winds are 75mph and by the time it tracks into Northern CT and just to the west of Springfield MA around 2pm today it will be downgraded to a tropical storm and by that time the winds will have shifted to N on the south facing beaches of NY and CT letting some of the water back out.

    Let me be clear, the biggest threat is the rain fall in Western MA now. There are areas to the W and NW of springfield that have already received 4-6″ of rain and there is 6-7 more hours of heavy rain to go here and then the major rivers will not flood until
    Tuesday.

    Tornadoes are a slight possibility to the east, but those chances are decreasing based on current trends.

    Stay safe all.

    JMA

    1. yes, it seems some reports of downed trees, etc is starting…..That band through Rhode Island, out into the ocean, I think is when our local area on the south shore will see the wind sustain to 30 to 40 mph, with gusts into the 50-55mph range. I’m thinking that will arrive btwn 10 to 10:30.

  10. My son was supposed to go to a party in Burlington last night but last I heard was not going. I hope he didn’t change his mind. Isn’t TK around there? I may be missing that up but think someone is from Woburn. Why Burlington. That seems random. Glad to see you all still have power. I have a leak sound a vent for our gas fireplace. We had a roofer fix it a month ago. That worked well.

  11. Harvey is the man- He is on right now saying it does not matter at all if it is called a hurricane or TS. The winds will be stromg, and don’t let the downgrade throw you off.

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