Tuesday Forecast

144 Comments

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)
High pressure ridge dominates with hot weather into Friday. Air mass pop up thunderstorms are possible but only in isolated locations favoring west and northwest of Boston later today, and mainly west and south of Boston on Wednesday. The next thunderstorm threat will come in a more widespread way during Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region. This will bring cooler and drier weather for the area by Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated thunderstorms late afternoon mainly southwestern NH and central MA. Humid. Highs 80-89 immediate South Coast and Cape Cod, 90-98 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Humid. Lows 65-75, warmest urban centers. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible, central and southeastern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Humid. Highs 78-86 immediate shorelines and Cape Cod, 87-96 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. Wind light variable with light coastal sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 67-77, warmest in urban areas. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 80-88 South Coast, 88-97 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon and evening. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to middle 90s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)
July 8-9 look dry and seasonably warm. A disturbance coming along the jet stream brings a shower/thunderstorm threat July 10-11. Fair weather returns to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)
A couple passing disturbances bring changeable but overall seasonable temperatures and a couple thunderstorm threats during this period.

144 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Glad to know that seasonable temps will return after Friday and hopefully stick around for awhile.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Another hot one. HRRR is advertising very isolated pop-up showers this afternoon. Best chance will be in the areas TK mentioned.

    Count me unimpressed by Friday’s severe weather threat. Mid-level lapse rates aren’t great and shear is not impressive. Combined with what looks like a slightly faster frontal timing and we won’t maximize instability. Lots of moisture and good jet dynamics, but I don’t think it will overcome all the limiting factors. I’m thinking general showers/isolated thunder in the midday hours which could feature some locally heavy rainfall given the PWATs. SPC has declined once again to introduce a risk area in the Day 4-8 outlook, and the NWS sounds a little less concerned today.

    1. Thanks.

      I was just looking around and came away with “What storms for Friday???”
      Still a few days off.

      Last night at 11 Eric was saying Strong storms with possible
      wind damage.

  9. Beautiful summer morning. Nice breeze coming in through open windows now albeit kind of sticky out. A/C will no doubt be going on within a few hrs. I will try taking a walk soon before the heat sets in.

    Vicki, thanks for your post yesterday wishing me well. Hope you stay cool and feel good, too.

  17. Btw, We were under the influence of the sea breeze here yesterday, but during the
    afternoon, the heat and humidity was on the increase. By about 5Pm the temp rose
    to 92 with dp 73.

  18. From NWS Burlington VT
    A significant temperature record has fallen! Yesterday, July 2nd, the temperature in Burlington, VT never fell below 80 degrees Fahrenheit. This establishes a new ALL-TIME record “high-minimum” temperature for any calendar day. The old record was 78F set several times previously.

    1. That is a major climate achievement. All time records like that are the hardest to break and the most significant when they occur.

      It’s worth a note that record high minimum temperatures outpace record high maximum temperatures in a warming world due to the increased water vapor in the air. Harder to heat the air up, but even harder to cool it down. The result is a higher average temperature where the largest portion of the increase comes from the higher minimums.

  19. Current readings across the area are in the mid to upper 80s
    with 88 at Logan and a fair number of other locations.
    90 at Norwood and Keene, NH.

    88 here in JP as well.

  20. I lost track is it still an official heat wave at Logan or did it fail to reach 90 yesterday?

    1. Only reached 83 yesterday late in the day after sea breeze relaxed
      Boston did make a 3 day heat wave, sensor not withstanding, for
      Fri, Sat and Sun. Did NOT make it to a 4th day. WIll have to start again
      today.

      Note: for many Boston Neighborhoods it was a 4th day of the heat wave. 😀

  21. 88 with 74 dp at 10:30 according to my station. I did note that I am showing one of the higher temperatures around. There is another wunder station a few miles from here that is about the same. The closest to me is a few degrees lower. I wonder how well the fan is doing keeping the temperature low. Or it is possible that we are in a hotter area. I’ll need to keep a record of this —- after vacation 😉

      1. hahahaha – I cannot do it very well if I am looking out over the ocean and/or river rather than at my iPad. But you never know!

  22. Thank you, TK.

    Needless to say, stay hydrated and don’t overdo it in your outdoor activities. I stupidly ran 5 miles this morning and realized when I got back home that it was too much.

    My cat is sprawled out on the kitchen floor in front of a fan.

    This weather reminds me of Robin Williams:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPnayr6iSpY

  24. 90 showing in many locations.
    Dew Point is DISGUSTING!!!

    Reading 73 here, 72 at the airport, 73 at Norwood
    and a BRUTAL 75 at Bedford.

  25. We’ve hit 90 in Wrentham, and given the dew points, I think this may be the most brutal day yet. I’ve actually grown more fond of the heat lately, but this is a little much for my liking.

    I was on Nauset Beach yesterday, it was a beautiful day there. Water temperature was very pleasant for this time of year.

  28. Those futurecast models the tv mets were putting out this morning showed a fair amount of activity around Boston and the Pike for late this afternoon and especially very early this evening. Was this overdone or a real possibility?

  30. Sanford, ME : temp : 90F, dp : 75F. Heat index : 101F. Wind : CALM !!!

    I can attest to that, there’s no ventillation, even by the lake.

    It is brutal !!!

    A few towering CU to our north.

    JpDave : I hope your wife is doing well in this long duration heat event.

    1. Thanks Tom.

      She is hanging in there. Not feeling very well and trapped in the house.
      New AC works well, so living room is cool to watch TV.

      This is disgusting.

      My dewpoint sensor has gone tilt again for the 2nd time in this heat wave.

      Now reading 77 Degrees. YIKES!

      1. Glad to hear the new AC is working, JPD. I notice, as rainshine pointed out, that this weather bothers my stomach also. I think it is moving from the AC to the outside….just messes up your system. I’m laughing as I say that. It is no wonder I have no problems in winter since I don’t use heat very much 🙂

        1. Second Vicki re : new A/C working well.

          These 75F dewpoints ….. I’m perspiring sitting still 🙂 🙁

    1. Thanks, JPD. It seems to me that the area just north of North Conway has been rather prime this year for severe weather.

  34. The showers/storms this afternoon may be fairly widespread, especially inland. Any that form will be very slow moving. Good day to use the old school air mass t-storm indices. K index around 35-36 and total totals approaching 50 suggests plenty of pop-up activity.

    1. Thanks WxW for answering my question above, although I assume your post wasn’t your specific intention. Thanks! 😉

      1. I should’ve put it under your comment! I still don’t know (and would like to) what models the different stations use for their “futurecasts.” I think some use the NAM, the HRRR, maybe one of the WRFs. Also the RPM, which is hard to access. I think some even run their own in-house models (NBC Boston?). But figuring out which stations use what, and on what days, eludes me.

  35. Friday thunderstorm potential not looking impressive on the 12z runs of the American models. Way out there but the 12z GFS severe parameters are better a week from today than for Friday.

  36. On first thought, getting some rain sounds like a no-brainer …..

    Unless that leaves behind a dp of 80F …….

    1. A dp that high is very rare, but not unprecedented around here. Probably the norm in Florida.

  37. Radar estimating about half an inch of rain in 15 minutes near Newark, NJ from a stationary pop-up cell there. So you can get localized flood issues on days like this, though certainly no widespread flooding or severe weather.

  39. WxWeather:
    I have been meaning to ask you:
    You were an intern at NWS-BOX/Taunton/Norton during the last two summers, correct?
    Do you know if the NWS/NOAA has regular maintenance or calibration of its instruments? Calibration has been a topic on this blog in recent days.

    1. As far as the ASOS units go, all they do on them is needed maintenance when something breaks. I certainly never heard of them trying to re-calibrate any of the existing ones. Even when one does have an issue, it can take days to address due to resource constraints. The ASOS platform is pretty good on the whole, but IMO the best climate records definitely come from long-standing COOP sites whose origins pre-date the days of ASOS and which do not use automation in their records.

  40. Vicki that storm you mentioned with the warning only moving 5mph. Lot of rain leading to a flash flooding warning in parts on Northern NJ.

    1. Crazy isn’t it. And thank you for the credit but WxWatcher and Captain brought it to my attention!

    1. out and about. car thermometer was reading between 96 and 101. 99 where I am in Dedham.

          1. Just got a call today from a customer in Scituate they had a deck built & want me to estimate removing the old one . Few calls from Scituate this year .

            1. Also would highly recommended taking a ride to Marshfield ( 2o min from you ) & have breakfast at the mug in Marshfield center we go any chance we get .

  45. Mac’s brother’s youngest is living in DC, working for a california rep. I just checked their weather. Not sure how accurate the DP is but several have the same number. The temp is 93 with an 85 DP???

    1. Wow – and at least you can see through the dust. I am not sure I can see through it in my car any more!!

  47. GEEZ!!!!

    Even in this heat/humidity the damn convection is dying down.
    So what else is new?
    Perhaps it’s just pulsing? Nah. We’ll get screwed out of any rain.

  48. Looking to the west, seeing towering storm clouds and the clouds are hitting the maritime air like a brick

  49. Best chance of a shower/storm in the Boston area comes 6-8PM. Coverage will not be as widespread as out west though.

  50. I can see clouds building to my south. I’m guessing they are ahead of the line going through Hartford.

    1. That must be what I’m seeing from here. Wayyyy in the distance I can just see the tops of clouds.

        1. off the coast of Portsmouth about 45 minutes out. On Appledore island at the marine lab.

  52. Typical thunderstorm POOFORAMA!)(@&#!@&#*&!@*(#&*(!@#(*&!@*(#&
    and WHY this time??????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.4326086956521739&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=398.8442211055277&centery=294.321608040201&transx=-1.1557788944722915&transy=54.321608040201&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25510867&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  56. Wow, looks like a hurricane outside right now!! It died down for a second and they ramped right back up!! Torrential sideways rain and tropical storm force winds.

      1. It just blew up as it was passing over us. Now I see some blue sky emerging but it is still raining torrentially.

  58. Emergency alerts now going off on our phones for flash flood warning in Hartford County.

  59. We had a decent slug of rain move through and now the temp has gone down to 82* but the DP rose to 79*.

  60. Flash flood warning in your area, Mark. Not sure if it is where you are but would be surprised if not.

    1. Yes, got the emergency alert on my phone. Storm that moved through here is very slow moving and has parked itself just south of here. More storm clouds now building just to the north of me.

      1. WxWatcher said earlier that any cells we see will be slow moving. Well done WX but not good for those in the area.

        The one west of me seems to be crumbling a bit but it has been slow

  62. Awesome day at Hampton Beach NH today! We had a feeble but strong enough sea breeze to take the edge of the heat. The water, though not “warm” by straight definition, was actually warm for early July. I was impressed. Easy to walk just right in. I always make some time to be out of the sun so not long after noon we head into the arcades and have some fun in there. Came back out to play frisbee just as the shadow from the storm to the west got over the beach. The storms missed the beach but as I was driving into Salisbury a cell just to the west redeveloped just to the east then back-built enough to catch us for a quick downpour and some close strikes. Good cracks of thunder, then it moved on to the SE and we could hear it rumbling during an ice coffee stop on 110 in West Newbury. Driving south on 95 we ran into a couple short-lived but torrential huge-drop downpours.

    Now the boundary from the Boston Harbor storm may try to fire something in southeastern MA as it joins up with the stuff from CT but as the sun sinks so will the support.

    The storms initiated in the areas I expected them to but they did end up a little further southeast than I expected. Tomorrow, best risk is west and south of Boston but still should be isolated. A break Thursday, then Friday’s interesting but I can’t call details yet. Timing is everything. Will try to have that as pinned down as I can by Thursday morning. I’ll be in Boston all day tomorrow and tomorrow night. I will probably put out a quick blog post before I crash tonight that will be “Wednesday’s” blog.

    1. So,happy you had a nice time TK

      Thunder from the cell south of us is rolling and relatively constant and loud considering how far south it is. My granddaughter says it is even south of them.

  63. There’s a dewpoint boundary further north in Maine. Caribou and Presque Isle have temps near 90F, however they have dps in the mid 50s.

    I believe some of that drier air is forecast to make it into southern Maine and hopefully into eastern Mass.

    Right now, the dps are in the mid-upper 70s in southern Maine, as humidity pools further ahead of this humidity boundary.

    I’ll take 103F with a 60F dewpoint over this 87F/76F dewpoint. This is far, far worse.

  64. And that’s all, she wrote. Zzzzzzzz for most of MA but positive thoughts for those who got whacked.

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