Thursday Forecast

103 Comments

9:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)
One more day of full heat under a ridge of high pressure before a cold front slices through the region and puts an end to it. The timing of this front is critical in determining the strength of thunderstorms. There are also a couple of troughs on either side of it, so more than one wave of storms is possible. It does look like the timing will be early enough to prevent maximum storm potential at least north and west of Boston. If enough sun is present south of Boston, where the front doesn’t get there quite as early, there may be some stronger storms. Some of the short range guidance has also shown a second area of storms north of Boston early to mid afternoon so while I may not fully buy this, it’s not being dismissed outright either. Regardless, by the evening, the front will be through the region and a refreshing air mass will be inbound, and ready to provide a very comfortable weekend. By Monday, we’ll already be into a new warm up, but not seeing signs of the same level of heat we’re currently experiencing. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Humid. Highs 82-89 South Coast, 90-98 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-77, warmest urban areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.F
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of showers and thunderstorms favoring areas west and north of Boston through midday and south of Boston into the afternoon. A few storms may be strong. Humid. Highs 78-86. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW from north to south during the day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Drier. Lows 56-64.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
MONDAY: Sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)
A series of disturbances will battle what wants to be the return of heat and this will bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with variable but near seasonable temperatures overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)
A bit of settling but overall the same pattern continues with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities but variable but overall seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures.

103 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. Thanks Tom! Yes it was a great day. It’s been a fun week for me so far. 🙂

    Yesterday in particular, left here at 7:30AM, got to the Esplanade shortly after 9, through security easily, and a several minute walk to my prime spot on the river bank, set up camp, and alternated between hanging there and taking shade breaks. About noon comes the walk back up to Back Bay station to hop on the orange line, off at Haymarket, a stroll into the North End and nice long lunch at Pizzeria Regina. The AC is always very nice in there and by the time I leave after that pizza and a large coke and some AC time, I’m ready for the return trip to the Esplanade where we remain until the end of the concert & fireworks. You’ll see a picture collage on FB from me later. 🙂

    1. I like the pattern overall but we do get back to a little closer to normal temps (though still leaning warm). Backing the ridge up to the west means the door is open for jet stream disturbances and t-storms from time to time.

      I see nothing that resembles a cool/unsettled pattern in the next 2 weeks.

        1. Once we get toward the end of the month we start (I think) to transition into the ridge/trough/ridge pattern which would put us in a predominant Bermuda High set-up for a while. I’m unsure on the speed of this evolution and it goes against what some of the longer range models have.

    1. Something should be around there between mid morning and noon, and a second batch may swing through with the actual front a bit later.

      1. Wouldn’t be Humarock if we didn’t get a threat although it is early. The times we needed to leave for the day or leave a day early were later in August.

  11. TK – Once we get into the Bermuda High pattern as you mentioned above, does that make us more vulnerable for tropical activity?

  13. To our whw south shore folks. Is there a good place not too far from Humarock to get good fruits and veggies?

    1. I cannot attest to this particular Lambert’s, But I can tell you that the one
      in our area (Westwood) is outstanding.

      Lamberts Rainbow Fruit
      135 Church St Pembroke, MA 02359

    2. Marshfield center has a very small Lambert’s other than that Nezerela ( if I spelled that right ) going down towards fieldston or the supermarkets Rbrothers by the highway or Shaw’s Marshfield center

      1. The Fruit Center in Hingham Harbor has a good but pricey produce department (good meats and fish too).

          1. Vicki:

            Haymarket South at 937 Webster St. in Marshfield advertises on WATD all the time. I have never visited there, but I thought I’d throw that out there.

            89 in Taunton.

            1. Ohhh that’s a good one too Captain and close since we typically shop at roches in marshfield. Thank you

                1. That’s the Lambert’s I think

                  Thanks again all. I apologize for this weather interruption 😉

                  91 in Sutton

    3. Thank you all. If we can’t find anything at Lambert’s in marshfield, a ride into hingham would be nice. Mac and I went to th fruit center a few years ago at your suggestion, Keith

  16. If you go to Haymarket south Vicki, I recommend everything 🙂 , and specifically their cranberry walnut chicken salad, any of their calzones and their rolls. Yum !!

    At least there is a breeze today …..

    1. Thank you, Tom. We will go there.

      I checked the Humarock wunder. Nice breeze. We have one too but it is a hot breeze.

      1. It might be the old lamberts. It’s behind K Katie’s burgers, next to sweet frogs and also adjacent to station 51.

  18. Good riddance, Pruitt. He was President Trump’s worst pick, in my opinion. To assign someone to head an agency he wants to get rid of is an abomination. The EPA may have over-regulated in certain instances under President Obama (I’m willing to acknowledge that), but that’s a lot better than under-regulated. I’m not an alarmist, as you all know. But, I do think the environment is too important to ignore. We’ve come a long way since I was a kid. Recycling is standard. There is generally less pollution. There isn’t any leaded gas anymore. But, we still have a long way to go – and all businesses and individuals must be held accountable.

    Brutal today. I’m irritable. But, irritable is better than what’s happening in Southern Quebec. 33 have died in the past few days. See link below. This kind of heat is too much for people who are unaccustomed to it. And, the Quebecois are unaccustomed to it.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44730887

    1. Heatwaves of that magnitude don’t occur too often up there, and this is the first time they’ve had one that intense with the population at the level it is. That equals many more casualties since they are a rare occurrence there, but I will add, not unprecedented.

      I’m going to be all over anyone who said this never happens there. It does. It’s just not frequent.

      1. I was in Montreal back in the 1970s for a week and it was quite hot for the entire time, much like NYC or DC. I don’t recall any issues from the locals back then, but I don’t know how long beyond that particular week they had to deal with the heat.

        2,000 people in New England died during the intense heat waves of July 1911.

    2. Don’t get me going on Trump. To keep peace, All I will say is that I agree 100%.

      That heat wave and the deaths up there are Horrific. And I can understand that.
      IF we did not have the ACs, I do not think my wife would have made it, seriously.
      She is one the ones they warn to be extra careful.

  19. I am hoping this is the worse stretch of heat and humidity will deal with all summer but being were early in the summer season I don’t see that happening.

    1. Too early to determine. I an pretty certain we will see humidity equal to or greater than this before summer’s over.

      1. UGH!!! Not what I wanted to hear TK. 🙁

        I suppose if we can at least keep the intense heat away for the rest of the summer, I’ll take that I guess.

  20. This is INSANE.

    It is now 92 in the house. My wife is wilting, even though sitting in air conditioning.
    I HATE THIS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Hoping your wife feels better soon, JP, and with the weather change coming she will feel better. Tomorrow may still be humid but I think not as hot. You are taking good care of her and I am hoping we don’t get any more stretches of this extreme heat and humidity this summer. I’m sure there will be a few days here and there – but not to this extent. I was out for a bit and the occasional breeze made it a bit tolerable, but when it stopped, HOT.

      1. Thank you.
        She can handle a day or 2 here and there, but NOT this extended period and it has been 7 straight days of 90+ with 2 days very near 100 here as opposed to the Arm Pit Airport location where NO ONE lives!!

        It’s a JOKE that Boston is not listed as a 7 day heat wave because MOST of the city did endure one.

    2. Have you considered central A/C? I don’t have it myself but from what I was told by a tech, it is not as difficult to install or expensive as you would imagine. My oil company sends flyers in the mail all the time about installing.

      1. My House is nearly 200 years old, so it would present
        Major problems to install central air. Not only that,
        the house or a good portion of it would need to be re-wired.
        So, no, we don’t give it much consideration.

        We are surviving with 3 window units, One in the living room
        to watch TV, one in my wife’s computer room and one in
        the bedroom for sleep. We have to eat in one the other rooms.
        The Kitchen is like a blast furnace. I have been home all week and taking care of all of the meal preparations and clean up.
        (translation: I do the dishes).

        !@(#&**!@#&!@(*#&*(!@&#*!&@#(*&!@*#&*(!@&#*(!&@(#*&!(@*#&*!(@&#*(!@&#*&!@(*#&!*(@&#*!&@(*#&!(*@&#(*!&@#(*&!@(*#&(*!@&#*(!@#&

        As far as I am concerned this heat can go away and NEVER EVER return. I think I’ll move to GREENLAND.

      2. Philip, I have central air and am thinking of getting window units. It is ridiculously expensive and having experience with both I did better with window ACS. I do swear by ceiling fans though

        1. And my house is currently 80 with the compressor running literally alllllll day. Caching $$$$

    2. CANNOT last 48 hours. The house BETTER get COOLED OFF tomorrow
      night, that’s all I can say(@!#()&!()@&#(*!&@#&*!@&$*(!&@#*&!@(*#&!(*@#&!(*@&#(*!@&#*(!&@*(#&!*(@&#(!*@&#*(!&@#*(&!@(*#&(*!@&#

      We’re supposed to go to dinner Saturday evening and if the house does not
      cool, we are likely NOT to make it.

      It had better NOT hit 90 again tomorrow!!! I am banking on Clouds and rain
      to keep that temperature down (perhaps a lucky down Draft of some sort but not a dangerous one, Just enough for cooling), even if humidity won’t be.

  22. I thought yesterday was a little more tolerable than recent days, but we’re right back into it today. Huge air mass change on the way tomorrow.

    1. Agree. Inside the house, this is the WORST day yet. Yes worse than the
      BRUTAL Tuesday and Sunday!!!!

  24. TK, agree that it would be folly to say that heatwaves don’t occur in Quebec. You probably noticed I qualified my statement by saying Quebecois are “unaccustomed” to sustained heat like this. I have friends there and visit quite often. Many people in Quebec City don’t have AC of any kind. They generally don’t need it. They do have homes that are very well insulated. Thickest brick walls you’ve ever seen. This of course is great in winter.

    JP Dave, Nuuk, Greenland is always an option. I hear that real estate is cheap there, but food and clothes are very expensive. It’s currently 36F and cloudy. Note, that is well below normal for Nuuk (or as it used to be called, Godthab). Generally, Southern Greenland has fairly mild summers, often in the 60s and even 70s. Not this year, however, as a large swath from Ellesmere Island to Labrador and Newfoundland (including the capital St. John’s) has seen well below normal temps for the past 6 weeks. Quite a bit of snow in Northern Atlantic Canada in June. Some moderation in the cold/cool is expected during the coming weeks, but not a lot. It’s expected to remain coolish there all `summer.’

    On Pruitt, I do not want to make this into a political discussion. But, the environment is important to me. I also have friends who work at the EPA. They’ve been undermined in a big way, and I hope that whoever is in charge will be better than Pruitt, with less conflicts of interest. I’m not advocating for a Greenpeace activity to run the EPA! Just someone who cares about the environment and doesn’t want to gut the agency. There are plenty of Republicans who fit this category. Environmentalism after all was very much part of the Republican platform many moons ago. And, lest we forget, Richard Nixon established the EPA.

    1. It was with a Republican Governor a while back, Frank Sargent.
      So they have it in them OR did.

      1. I knew Frank well. I still have a license plate from his admin that he gave me. My dad has the reverse

    2. Yes, you are always careful to word things well. My point being I don’t like it when people take this and turn it into something even bigger than it is. I don’t dispute the ability for the climate to shift, but I do highly dispute the political side of it. I’m just about the truth yet being proactive no matter what. 🙂

    3. Joshua, I heard an interesting discussion on NPR tonight. The gist was that we did not knowingly creste the mess. Everything we discovered had amazing benefits. There is no fault. The fault only enters the picture if we knowingly do nothing to right the problems. We tend to think we are separate, but we are part of the biosphere….and we need to assimilate.

  25. Thought I would share a few photos from Block Island yesterday. It was a beautiful day there and despite the humidity, tolerable as the temps topped off in the low 80’s. We did have a brief sun shower from that decaying thunderstorm that formed over the ocean but it felt good!

    Here are a couple pictures from the Mohegan bluffs on the south shore of the island. Shots like this make you feel like you are out on the Pacific Coast somewhere…

    https://s33.postimg.cc/4h6jd4dsv/bluffs2.jpg

    https://s33.postimg.cc/q3lju5zin/bluffs.jpg

    And here are a couple shots from the preserve on the extreme northernmost tip of the island…

    https://s33.postimg.cc/oojz5gtan/northern_tip.jpg

    Saw 20+ seals there right up close 10-15 feet from me! They seemed as intrigued by me as I was of them….

    https://s33.postimg.cc/qt4c6l57z/seals.jpg

    And lastly a shot walking up the dunes to the lighthouse, also at the northern tip of the island….

    https://s33.postimg.cc/3rnr0zxwf/lighthouse.jpg

    We managed to avoid the crowds on what was a very busy day there. Most people just take the ferry over and don’t leave the town/state beach area, missing the best parts of the island. You’ve really got to get out on your bike or rent a moped to see the good stuff. Regardless, great summer day trip if you haven’t been there before.

  26. 18z HRDPS is putting a lot of juice into the storms along the actual front after having the PFT a little further southeast earlier in the day.

  27. Very nice shots, Mark. The “Block” is special. You captured it well in your photographs and descriptions.

    I’ve biked around the island several times.

    1. Indeed. In all the times I have been there though, I have never seen a seal, let alone dozens of them like that, right on the shore. I guess if you’ve grown up near the ocean or on the Cape, this is nothing special but I was amazed by it. Well worth the 8 miles of biking and 1.5 miles of walking round trip to get there!

  29. Well because I said it would do nothing, Tropical Storm Beryl will probably be a tinycane in a couple days. 😛

    1. Hahaha. Love it. I do that on a regular basis. Don’t you just love mother nature’s sense of humor

  30. It is a lovely evening. Same temp in and out and a nice breeze out

    Sad part is that I suspect it takes folks who struggle many days of cooler weather to get back to their base

  31. Sorry to read about the deaths in Quebec.

    The heats been bad.

    The humidity has been the story.

    I’ve camped enough to see the difference in how an evening cools off with a fldewpoint in the low 60s vs a dewpoint of 76F, which we’ve had a few times in this spell.

    Been amazed.

    I think when I return home in mid July, when I have time, I’m going to see if I can find information on dewpoints in past northeast heatwaves. Curious if there’s info and what it would show.

    We had a heavy shower around 4pm. It was nice !! Streets still wet as the water is struggling to evaporate.

  32. 18z GFS has much of SNE back in the 90 degree+ heat starting Sunday and continuing thru next Wednesday. Brief reprieve next Thursday/Friday and then back in the furnace next weekend and continuing very warm much of the week of the 15th.

  33. TK, what are your thoughts on hurricane activity in August in the Caribbean this year? Just booked a trip to the Bahamas the week of Aug 19 before the kids go back to school. I’d love to get 4 nice days in and then get smoked by a Cat 4 on the last day. Best of both worlds 🙂

    2. I think the pattern will be favorable to bring any storms into that area, however I think storms in that area will be less frequent than average.

      1. OK, thank you. Makes sense with a Bermuda high likely setting up. Perhaps I should be thinking about travel insurance!

  34. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Severe weather is unlikely – but not out of the question tomorrow. Lots of moisture and a bit of low level wind shear can occasionally make storms interesting. An isolated threat but something we’re tracking.

  35. @NWSBurlington

    Today Lake Champlain recorded a new daily record high water temperature of 72 F. Mt. Mansfield tied for the 2nd time this week its all time daily max temperature of 84 F. #vtwx #nywx

  38. New post. Very little change from yesterday’s. Left 6-10 & 11-15 untouched for now.

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