Friday Forecast

140 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)
Trough passes through this morning followed by a cold front midday and afternoon. Most of the moisture and energy for showers and thunderstorms is with the trough with less available for the front so the majority of the activity should be taking place before noon for a good portion of the region but will take until mid afternoon to pass through all of the southeastern areas before exiting. This marks an end to the current spell of heat and humidity and will be followed by a refreshing air mass through the weekend. Some heat returns early next week but without humidity getting all that high, though it will be a little more humid by Tuesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of showers and thunderstorms favoring areas west and north of Boston through midday and south of Boston into the afternoon. A few storms may be strong. Humid. Highs 78-86. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW from north to south during the day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Drier. Lows 56-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-85. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 80s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)
A series of disturbances will battle what wants to be the return of heat and this will bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with variable but near seasonable temperatures overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)
A bit of settling but overall the same pattern continues with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities but variable but overall seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures.

140 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. SPC says marginal tornado threat today.

    map

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1530876763331

    discussion

    …New England/Southeast New York…
    An upper-level trough will move southeastward across Quebec and
    southwest Ontario today as a cold front advances southeastward
    across the Northeast. Convection will likely be ongoing along and
    ahead of the front at 12Z with this convection moving southeastward
    across New England this morning. RAP forecast soundings this morning
    from eastern Maine southwestward into southeast New York show SBCAPE
    from 500 to 1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 kt range.
    This combined with some veering winds with height in the boundary
    layer could be enough for a marginal tornado threat. A few strong
    wind gusts could also occur. The threat should decrease from
    northwest to southeast as the line moves into the coastal sections
    of New England around midday.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Transition day! NWS has an in depth discussion on the rain/storm threat for today. I pretty much agree with their thoughts. I think all the risks for today are pretty low/isolated though. Localized urban flash flooding probably the biggest concern. Low risk of a severe storm with damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado, with the SPC maintaining a marginal risk (5% wind/ 2% tornado).

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

  8. In the Atlantic, Beryl has become a hurricane (albeit, a tiny one), having rapidly intensified overnight. Still forecast to dissipate once it reaches the Caribbean.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    However, it’s that time of year. Here’s the 6z GFS for Thursday. This is not Beryl, however, it is a system that already exists, Invest 96L, which NHC is now giving an 80% chance of development. Interests in the Carolinas are encouraged to monitor this system. We’ll see if potential impacts extend any further up the coast.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018070606&fh=144

  9. So far, it looks as though showers with the trough move North f the Boston area
    and the showers with front now out by Albany do NOT look impressive at all. I do say so far.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=ENX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25514639&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  11. Thanks TK.
    Transition day is finally here and relief is on the way for the weekend.

    1. It can’t get here soon enough!!!

      With the heat build up for 7 days the temperature in our house was 93!!!!
      late yesterday afternoon..

      1. 12 hrs and hopefully, the dp will be in the 50s or lower and when the sun sets, the outside temp will be able to cool rapidly and significantly, which should help greatly.

  12. Thanks TK !

    Today’s cold front wins an emmy/oscar for “best cold front of the year”.

    Showers have arrived here.

  14. 84 at Logan and Norwood with no sun whatsoever and it’s not even 8:30 in the morning!!!!

  15. Thank you TK

    Humarock has gusts to 22. We only got as high as 10 mph at 6:25. I love the charts with this station

  19. Heading out on for the (with friends) annual summer Radio DX trip (long distance listening). In the past several years we’ve been to SE Mississippi, Snowshoe WV, Valentine NE, NE Iowa, NW Louisiana, Central Michigan and South Central Illinois.

    This year its Zeeland North Dakota…and it looks like (except for the weekend) the heat will be following us westward. NWS has temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s thru next Thursday.

  20. 13z SPC mesoanalysis indicates about 1000-1500J CAPE across the region. PWATs 2.1-2.3″ are near the maximum for climatology around here —> areas of torrential downpours likely.

    Also seeing the best shear values (0-1km storm relative helicity ~150-200) in eastern MA, though the best shear is pushing east ahead of the convection. Still, an isolated tornado isn’t out of the question.

  23. Also, radar can be misleading on rainfall intensity on days like this. These are warm rain processes at work. You don’t need the “bright reds and pinks” on radar reflectivity to get extreme rainfall rates. Even with little or no lightning, it can rain very hard, similar to what happens in tropical cyclones, which typically don’t produce much lightning.

  24. Big astronomical happenings today.

    Earth is at aphelion, reaching its furthest distance from the sun at a little over 94.5 million miles away.

    This slows earth’s movement in its orbit, resulting in summer being 4 and 3/4 days longer than winter.

    Around next jan 3/4 will be perihelion, when the earth is 91.4 million miles away from the sun.

  25. Dp in Burlington VT has gone from 73 to 62 in past 3 hrs.

    Current 10am ob has a gusty n wind, expecting a huge drop in next 2 hours.

    Saw in ob perhaps 150 miles NW of Burlington, VT that in past 12 hrs went from 75F with a 73F dewpoint to 61F with a 46F dewpoint.

    It’s coming !! 🙂 🙂

  28. Raining where I am for about 45 minutes now.
    If this front was coming through during peak heating might have been an interesting day in terms of thunderstorms.

  29. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Storms working into E CT, RI, and E Mass should be watched. Higher instability and a bit of low level wind shear (0-1km srh of >150 m2/s2). Marginal severe weather risk continues.

  32. This line of storms moving into the South Shore is intensifying. Looks like some gusty winds along with decent lightning.

  33. Very dark in Sudbury with distant thunder and light to moderate rain – at this point, anyway. Looks like it’s going to pour.

  35. Strongest lightning and thunder is after what appeared to be the strongest went past us.

    Strongest gust so far is 8. 0.67 rain. 73 with 72 DP

  37. RadarScope shows a tiny cell directly over where I am that looks benign to me but has decent thunder and vivid lightning. What went through before was more rain than anything

  38. Mobile so can’t post pics, but right near Medfield/Norwood is some weak rotation, will pass a little south of the city.

  39. Oh wow. That is what just went bu here and as promised the system was intensifying.

    It is really rumbling here now but more distant than directly over

      1. To the southeast. Just looked again – line of rain/storms straightened out. Looks like a lot of heavy rain heading or around the Randoloph area – east of you, anyway. It looked like a bow echo. The storms keep changing – breaking up, merging. It keeps getting dark then light here. We got some moderate rain and some distant thunder and a little lightning.

  46. Dark clouds moving this way, just started raining at the coast.

    Also, saw this from Dave Epstein on Twitter
    @growingwisdom
    14m14 minutes ago
    Line of showers moving very quickly. The second half of the afternoon will end up turning out pretty nice. If this had moved another 4 hours slower we’d be looking at much more severe weather.

    1. Had one of the House knickers a bit ago. The bolt of lightning just south of here was awesome. But mostly it is a fairly constant rumble more distant than close

    2. There is clearly some funky stuff going on betweem Franklin and Brockton.
      Does it become something of concern? Who knows? probably not, but I don’t like seeing it just the same.

  49. To me, the rotation appears to be rather broad and fairly weak, more like
    a small mesoscale cyclone than any possible tornado.

  50. Driving through some incredible storms here with super close lightning strikes and very low visibility at times …on 128 near Mass Pike

  52. Rain cooled it to 74. So windows are going up as soon as the rain stops, which should be soon. 0.23 here and not all that much more coming.

        1. Oh. How did I not remember that. And staycations are very nice. You and the boys find great things to do

  54. Unless more storms pop up later, not impressed with the storms around here. Don’t want rotation or anything severe, but at most we got some moderate rain, not worth calling a downpour. It sure got dark here, ‘though clouds weren’t that dark but moving swiftly along. Still getting dark at times; obviously south shore and I think north shore got and is getting brunt of it. I think JJ said this and I agree. If this had all come later on it would have been a very interesting day weather-wise.

  55. IDK. I still have DP at 71 as do most other Sutton wunder stations. The one closest to me has it at 58 though.

  56. Had a quick torrential downpour here in Manchester CT with some lightning and thunder before noon. Didn’t last long and is already drying out.

    On another note, more record highs falling this week on Mount Washington with 70F + highs the last two days. Yesterday’s high of 71 was 1 degree off the all-time record.

    Tweet (along with a cool shot of the Bretton Woods fireworks from the summit):

    https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/1014981451937406977

    1. Thanks for sharing the info on the Mt. Washington warmth records being broken. Until you wrote this, I pictured myself atop in the mountain on a cloudy July day, 53F. Well, instead of hiking up the mountain I’ll stick my head in the freezer. Seriously, the humidity and heat build-up in my apartment is disgusting. My small dehumidifier fills to the brim every 24 hours. That’s how bad it is. I probably need to buy another one for the bedroom. The fans are blowing hot around, which is ineffective. A window AC unit would mean no light at all coming in my basement apartment.

  57. Briefly on sports. I know most of you don’t care about the World Cup, but I think some of you do. Europe has really dominated at this World Cup, ironically, with the exception of Germany (the defending champions). I think Belgium beats Brazil today. France looks to be the strongest side all-round. Africa was awful. Asia/Oceania was dreadful (well, Japan made it interesting against Belgium, but Japan was mediocre in the group stage). North America was bad. South America has 2 decent teams – Uruguay and Brazil – but I think both will be knocked out today.

  58. Hmmm blah blah blah Ho Hum Big Woof, Big NOTHING…

    Whoping 0.39 inch here. Now I’ll still have to water. geez can’t even get enough water for the plants. PATHETIC!!!! Rant, rant, rant, rant…. Waaaaa Waaaa Waaaaa

    The front is on our door steps.

    74 with dp 69 here.

      1. Thanks. Now I know why DP hasn’t dropped. I may need to stop using the nearest wunder station to compare mine to. It seems off. Although it has a gold star thing so who knows

      1. Dp up to 73 again here )(!@&(#&()!@&#()*!&@#*&!@)(#&!@)(#&)!(@&#)(!@#&!)@&#)!(@#&)!(@&#)(!&@(#)&!)(@#&!(@&#

        HURRY the BLEEP UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        1. We have A/C on. The sun has been out here for some time. Opened kitchen window to see if there was a bit of relief. NO. So hot, still. We have small apt. and 1 window A/C which kind of cools the apt. down but it’s been a struggle this past wk. Especially w/humidity. Front looks close. Will it really cool off and dry out fast when it comes by?

  60. Thanks for the link JPD. I saved it to my home screen. As is the case with other links, it shows only as close as Worcester which it seems, although close, seems to have quite doffeeenr readings than we do. Or there is a distinct possibility I’m doing something wrong

    1. please look at the site. near the top right there are a couple of drop downs.
      Click on radius and select what you want. I use the max of 300 miles so
      I can see as much as possible.

      See screen shot below

      https://imgur.com/a/3BvltxL

      Also, you can zoom the map in and out with + and – at lower right OR
      Roll the mouse with the wheel between a right click and left click.

      Map becomes much more useful.

      2. If you hadn’t noticed, there are a number out data elements
        that can be selected for overlay 1 and overlay 2.

        I generally pick temp and dew point, but depending I sometimes
        pick temp and wind speed. Check em out.

        1. Ugh. I am failing at this. I select 10miles and it says “click point on map” I try tapping on Sutton but get nothing. I don’t see a place to specify town.

          Sorry for being a nuisance.

          And no cooler here either

          1. There is no place to select or tap on a town.
            This presents a map with an overlay of
            2 selected data elements for the observation stations only. This is not Wunder map. I use it because I find the readings to be accurate.
            You can true wind info as well. Good to monitor fronts. 😀

            1. Oh got it. I was thinking I could use it to check accuracy of my station. I misunderstood. I am having fun playing with it. Thank you

  61. This front is excruciatingly slow in exiting the coast. Did it SLAM on the breaks!!!

    C’mon through and HURRY UP!_))*#(!@*#)!(@&#(!@&#*()!&@#&!(@&#*(

    1. It has exited all of coastal NH and ME and CT, but for some reason
      we can’t kick it Bleep out of MA!!!!!

  64. Just cleaned the bathroom and did the bathroom and kitchen floors.
    Sweat is just pouring off of me in every location. This weather SUCKS big time.
    Send it back down South where the hell it belongs. They can have it!

  67. Dp has lowered ever so slightly from 74 down to 72. Is it here? I dunno. Will continue
    to watch for movement downward in that STINKEN dew point.

    1. Before I completed typing it popped back to 74. It was just momentary fluctuation which is normal. Oh well.

      It is now 4:12 PM and I FULLY EXPECTED that damn front to have
      exited the coast by now. NOT THE CASE.

  68. I think, maybe, perhaps the front has passed through my area.
    DP dropped from 74 to 72 and then to 69, then to 68.
    YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Here’s hoping !!

      The NW wind picks up pretty quickly post frontal passage and stays breezy afterward.

  69. Front has finally passed Logan and dropped dew point there from 73 to 66
    Very quickly.

  70. We are definitely feeling the drier air in Lunenburg.

    All this talk of DPs led me to take a look at the weather in my wife’s home town of Lancaster, CA. The current conditions are
    Temp: 105 F
    DP: 26 F
    Humidity: 6%

    Looks like a great time to set off some fireworks!

  73. Just arrived at my mother’s in Amsterdam NY and wow, what a change in air! Blue skies, windy, low humidity and temps falling rapidly thru the 70s. I literally just put a light jacket on.

    1. Isn’t it nice !!

      Same here now in southwest Maine.

      Don Kent’s “summer, polar air”

  74. We’ll have to keep an eye on the system off the Southeast Coast (probably Chris before too long). That may end up right in New England next week sometime.

    1. Well sign number three for the night. My earliest memories of humarock were with my younger brother, Chris. One vivid one that i have mentioned here before is of the ocean during Hurricane Carol pouring into the house we rented.

  76. Musings from the deck. Please bear with me

    It is so difficult in our busy world to live in the present. It is even more difficult to keep our minds open to all that is around us.

    After a lifetime of summers in Humarock with my mom, dad, brother-Chris, and of course Mac, I’m both excited and sad before heading there

    Tomorrow is 7/7. Most of you know Mac and I had been friends for years but our first date was 7/7/77. He surprised me with tickets to see my very favorite singer, Mac Davis. I listen to thousands of pandora songs….pandora lets me know how many each month. I have NEVER had a Mac Davis song pop up….until tonight.

    That was followed by the song that most reminds me of my brother. And then of course I saw TKs post about the potential of Chris

    Life is truly grand.

  77. Oh my. What a glorious morning

    JPD and Hadi, I just heard something about a porch day in JP. Do you both participate? What is it?

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