9:50AM
As of 9AM, Irene is now a tropical storm with top winds near 65 MPH and is centered near Coney Island NY, starting to accelerate to the north northeast. Irene continues to have a very widespread wind field of tropical storm force winds and hurricane force gusts. The center will cross western Long Island and western to north central CT, west central to central MA (passing close to Springfield) then up across southwestern NH where it will cut across central NH and into and across Maine by tonight, weakening and beginning to lose tropical characteristics while accelerating in forward speed.
Specifics…
Rain: Expect the heaviest and steadiest rain west of the storm track with more showery but still at times very heavy rain to the east.The heaviest areas of rain will lift north northwest across the Boston area through 1PM. Expect rainfall amounts 1-4 inches east of the track, 4-8 inches to the west, with locally heavier amounts. River flooding most likely in the heavy rain areas to the west. Rivers east of the center will not likely flood and should handle the rainfall fairly well. Poor drainage flooding will be a bigger concern in these areas during and shortly after the heavier rain periods.
Wind: East of the storm track, winds mostly from the southeast to south, often tropical storm force, top gusts 40-60 MPH with locally stronger, except gusts around hurricane force possible along the South Coast and some of the higher elevations. Strongest winds will occur in the next few hours, but will strengthen again as southwest to west winds behind the storm late today and this evening. West of the track, expect northeast to north winds 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, but strongest winds there will be northwest to west behind the storm, 25-40 MPH with stronger gusts, likely over 50 MPH for a period of time Sunday evening. Considerable tree damage is expected from this event, because it has been a while since such a storm, and the ground is saturated from heavy rain before the storm, making the soil softer around bases of trees.
Storm Surge: 4 to potentially 7 foot storm surge flooding on the South Coast, especially in the bays, with the morning high tide. A second surge with the evening high tide and may be similar to the morning surge. East-facing coastal areas will see a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet with the morning high tide as the winds will be most onshore at that time. By the evening tide, the winds will be blowing more from the land toward the water so storm surge flooding will not be an issue, but splash-over flooding may still occur due to the very rough seas and waves.
Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible in heavier rain bands this through early afternoon, especially from the Boston area and Merrimack Valley to southeastern MA including Cape Cod and the Islands. These are usually very weak and short-lived, but still significant enough to add to wind damage. These kinds of tornadoes are spawned from low level wind sheer (change of speed and/or direction of wind with height) that is set up when friction near the ground slows the wind speed and turns it more toward the center of the hurricane and winds above the ground are fast-flowing and more parallel to the storm center.
Updated Boston Area Forecast…
TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with numerous tropical showers including some downpours. The heaviest rain in the Boston area should occur through about 1PM. Mostly cloudy mid through late afternoon with additional tropical showers, heavy at times. Brief sun may appear between showers. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind SE increasing to 25-45 MPH gusting 40-60 MPH, occasionally stronger, shifting more to S and eventually SW during the day. Isolated tornadoes are possible from mid morning through early afternoon.
TONIGHT: Rain and showers ending from south to north with breaking clouds before midnight and clearing overnight. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH, still may reach around 50 MPH over exposed higher elevations, diminishing somewhat overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and still humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH early, diminishing slowly.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 58-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. High 74-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84
We have winds winds about up to 32 mph – roughly from the southeast. Rain has been off and on heavy.
TK – thanks for the updates!
Thank’ for the report rainshine.
Thank’ TK- Stay safe.
Sorry my s button seems to have been stuck.
ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss 🙂
Hahaha.
FUNNY
🙂 🙂
In Newton, it has been continually raining all morning and some light but now increasing winds.
Well I know it’s one storm at a time but we also have a tropical storm Jose which is no threat to the mainland and 2 Cape Verde lows, one of which we can keep an eye on. (Unfortunately one “weather personality” suggested that one of these lows would be a hurricane threat to the mainland late next week. Slightly irresponsible I’d say although I am sure most didn’t take it seriously. )
Stay safe. I was driving home late last night from the Logan area and every exit ramp seemed to have the fender bender accident. People were driving too fast for the conditions.
I would not go so far as to mention something like Jose being a threat on air this far out, but I talked to a colleague last night who is already very concerned about the weather pattern at the time that system would be in the neighborhood. So we’ll just leave it on the back burner to simmer for now…
Problem with Jose is its formation came to far north and any intense strengthening would be quite anomalous.
Part of the reasoning i lobbied hard against strengthening for Irene once it came ashore in NC and pushed for its arrival in SNE as a tropical storm. Storms don’t usually strengthen north of the carolinas and bermuda. Yes, a rare exception but little historical or analog support for such occurrences, no matter how warm the water might be. In Irene’s case too much interaction with the land as well.
Jose is a fish storm.
I think the unnamed forecaster I mentioned was referring to another strong low coming off of Africa now, and prematurely, in my opinion, suggested it might become a mainland threat.
Huge band of rain coming through Newton now.
Just saw NECN and Weather Channel – Irene downgraded to Tropical Storm. It’s still carrying a punch ‘though.
At 9:00am Irene has been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph. I am going to estimate its forward speed to be a little faster than currently posted. Close to 30mph. I think we are going to see max sustained winds around 40-50mph, with stronger guests on the coast. Perhaps to 60mph or so. I actually think the strongest guests might come after passage, out of the WNW, particularly in the interior. Rapid improvement form south to north, west to east from noon-3pm. So much dry air working into the storm now on its backside and lots of shear. These systems tend to move faster than models can react to once they get this far north, so based on current trends I have moved up the timing and the weakening.
Thanks, JMA – I have noticed that, too, in other tropical systems in the past. Once the storm passes we get higher winds.
It didn’t happen with Gloria but it sure did with Bob in 1991, as well as Belle in 1976.
TK I remember after Gloria thinking the wind just stopped. Wind for bob wasn’t as bad here
I wonder if the owner of the nice boat is now watching it float away, I think in Buzzards Bay, on channel 4. 🙁
Someone on eBay is selling a bottle of Irene water for $3. Good grief
🙂 Sometimes weird stuff comes from people in times like this.
It sure does. The positive side is it does give you something to laugh at
I’m going to tweak paragraph one to update for the downgrade, so I don’t have to repost so soon. We knew this was coming eventually…
Even with that downgrade Tk there is still a great level of concearn, would you agree.
Absolutely. You’re only talking a downgrade because of a measurement of a few miles per hour lower in the wind near the storm center. Big deal. Thousands will let their guard down because of a status change. Something that they should be reminded not to do.
The wind app I have says sustained at 42 with gusts to 56 here. Have no idea how accurate it is. It seemed very accurate on those days in Humarock. It uses some sort of communication with a NOAA satellite
We don’t have a wind app but the wind has been getting stronger in gusts at times. Also, sky actually looks kind of bright to the west. It’s pouring out now but sky brightens up at times – I do not like these storms causing destruction, harm, etc. – but Gosh, sometimes I love the way the sky looks during some storms!
Rainshine. I don’t like the destruction either but am fascinated by natures power.
Back to work. A quick thank you to a couple of friends at Florida State who reoriented me hard when I bit way too fast on the eastern shift. A big oops on my part. Though the forecast we went with for the last 72 hours is verifying well. Again hope to return the community here with more regularity in September, with plenty of right ons and plenty of way offs….Stay safe everyone!
Thanks JMA! Look forward to chatting soon.
BTW – my wind speeds are just estimates – smtms. have to ask husband for his estimate.
Wow. Phantom Gourmet started a thread called “Weathermen are…” on his FB page today and it’s amazing how much “love” (read very sarcastic) they are showing for people in the field. BAHAHA!
Speaking of sarcasim, trolls are back in full force this morning over on the WBZ blog. Their complacency is unreal. I for one, will not relax until sunrise tomorrow. Keeping fingers crossed.
Should be a rough day to say the least…still have power, for now.
Stay safe, everyone! 🙂
Our power went off about 30 minutes ago but came back I just went on the porch and heard a transformer blow on the main street but not on our line since we still have power. Trees are bending in half with some gusts
glad the power is back on Vicki….the winds are gusting here btwn 30 to 40mph and so far, so good on the power…..My wife has listened to me all week about the storm and when a tiny branch fell off the tree, she had my daughter run it in, saying “Storm Damage.”
OMG I’m laughing so hard I can’t see.
🙂
My son said the wind in Brighton isn’t bad at all. Will it get windier there
Don’t be surprised if the strongest winds are from the southwest to west after the rain is mostly over.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK. I guess irenes bark is worse then her bite. Some decent gusts right now in JP
Classic winter storm -noreaster phenomenon happenning as we speak. A dry slot forming over the the CT River Valley. (No its not the eye) Dry air advecting down
Where is the eye now. I am afraid to turn on the tv. Even tho it’s in a surge protector our power is surging too much for me to trust it
Eye is becoming less defined but storm is centered over Putnam County NY moving NNE at 25-30mph.
We last poweer in Hanover 20 minutes ago. We have experienced very gust winds the past our. Tom you were dead on with that line here. My weather gauge waa registering max gust of 30 but the trees above paint a different picture. Will the winds be stronger than 30 on the back side? I’m on my BB.
I think there may be some strong gusts on the backside, from the southwest later today.
Hope you get the power back soon Coastal.
My wind equipment hasn’t been working for quite some time, So I can’t give a reading.
My Guess is the top gust made it to perhaps 45- 50 mph tops.
A couple of branches came down. So far so good. Most of the time wind
is far below that.
Thank you for all of your hard work TK
I was on the phone with a friend in wellesley when a huge oak came down on his neighbors house
FYI-NHC says final US landfall for Irene came at Coney Island NY in the Brooklyn section of New York City at 8:45 am as a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds at 65mph.
Hi old salty. I was worrying you didn’t have power
Sorry you are out coastal.
Why do they keep moving end of TS warnings up. It’s now until 11:00 tomoro morning. I was planning on leaving here at 6 am to go back to Humarock.
Latest from NHC
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…41.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 10 MI…20 KM W OF DANBURY CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH…43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
Good Night Irene!
Vicki,
Power no. Was up to 3AM is all. Thank you.
TS due to back end. I just don’t see back end as big deal either.
Irene has lost much of her punch. It passed just too far West of us for
any major problems here. Had it stayed off shore farther and made
landfall In Eastern CT or RI, I think we’d all be without power now.
That’s good news Old Salty. Were you up working or just watching the storm.
Blog updated… No major changes just updating more current info.
Vicki, Thanks.
Wife and I were out to dinner, then cards with friends.
When we got home, about 11:30PM, just watched storm till 3AM.
Couldn’t go to bed! Lol
Out getting bagels in Andover a little while ago. Heavy rain, gusty winds, ton of small branches down, a few larger branches and a couple trees. Mostly snapped off from the gusts, not toppled due to ground and roots giving out. Messy driving, to say the least! Power has gone off a couple times, but back on quickly. Good day to stay in the house, read the newspaper!
TJA
Haven’t heard from Rainshine for a bit. Wonder if sudbury lost power. Am listening to police scanner and lots of trees are down with wires