Saturday Forecast

69 Comments

9:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)
One more day of relatively low humidity as dew points start below 60 under the influence of an air mass that had its origins north of the border some time ago. But this is all about to change as this high pressure area gives way to a new pattern, the arrival of which will be marked by a complex low pressure area, one spinning in the Ohio Valley influencing a coastal low that will move north then hook northwest into the northern Mid Atlantic, sending a tail of tropical moisture into New England during Sunday with waves of showers. With a little wind shear in place, typical for these types of systems, we’ll have to watch for any heavier downpours/thunderstorms becoming capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts in the form of either a brief burst of wind coming down from above, or even a small and short-lived, relatively weak tornado. And there is no need to panic over hearing that term. This pattern can and has produced these before. An extreme case in this situation would be the Revere tornado a few years back. In just about all cases, anything that occurs will be less than that, track-wise and damage-wise. But where it is a summer weekend and many people are about the area, it’s always wiser to know even the most remote possibility and be aware of what to do, just in case. Sunday has been pre-termed “washout” by many, but this will not be the case. There will be rain-free periods as well, and some locations may go hours between showers. As we start the new week, the Monday through Wednesday period will see fewer showers and storms, coverage-wise, as the main axis of activity is going to be pushed to the west of the region by retrograding, or westward-moving, high pressure from the western Atlantic. So while I can’t rule out showers/storms any of these days, and if any happen to occur at your location, it can rain very hard for a time, but the vast majority of the time at any given location will be rain-free, just warm and quite humid, as we continue to be dominated by a southerly flow of tropical air. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun dominant early, clouds dominant later. More humid by late day. Highs 77-86, coolest coastal areas. Wind light E to SE.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Showers arriving south to north overnight. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Downpours and locally strong wind gusts possible. Very humid. Highs 74-82. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas where a few gusts to or over 30 MPH are possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Very humid. Lows 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered to isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Very humid. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly late day. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest Cape Cod, warmest interior valleys.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)
The overall large scale pattern, as mentioned previously, will feature a low pressure trough around the Midwest and Great Lakes and high pressure off the US East Coast. As the strength and position of the ridge fluctuates, it will help determine days with higher shower and thunderstorm threats. A higher threat is expected sometime during the July 26-27 period before it drops off again on the July 28-29 weekend, possibly to return July 30. As previously mentioned, this is not the type of pattern with washed-out days, just one that presents opportunities for showers/storms at times, prompting one to keep a close eye on weather is they have outdoor plans. Temperatures during this time are expected to run at or slightly above seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)
Not seeing any major pattern shifts during this period as well.

69 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. #1?

    Thank you TK.

    You did say, but in the best of possible terms. Well done.

    Excellent details.

  2. Thanks TK !

    Excellent discussion !!

    It was cool last night in SE Mass, lots of low 50s with a few 40s. House is really cooled off.

    1. JpD I thought of you this morning. Lots of fishing going on above Moody St dam, yet not much for bugs and skitos. Might work for you. I talk to the fisher people out there when paddling and the large mouth seem to be biting.

      1. thanks. river is a bit inaccessible there without a boat, is it not?
        River is loaded with large mouth.

        1. Yes they are catching large mouth.

          The portion of the river above Moody St has a bridge (it’s the bridge just north of Moody St bridge) and three docks that people fish from. These perches allow you to cast into the main river or the weeds and structures.
          See map below. In addition to the landing that is noted on the map, there are two nice new docks at either end of the watch factory. Sometimes they are are clean a as whistle, at others the swan and duck leavings are an issue. but each of them have ramps that appear to stay clean. It is a pretty stretch of river. They had a fishing tournament today and one guy sat in a fishing kayak/paddleboat by the walkway not 20 feet from the sidewalk in front of the watch factory all morning. he mush have liked his spot.

          2. Oh for heavens sakes …silly me. I was thinking there was a Moody in VT. I must have vacation brain still. I spent a lot of time at Grover Cronins on Moody as a younger person.

            And what a perfect day for you and your wife. I’ve never heard of a black crowned night heron…..wow

            1. Grover Cronin’s bldg. is still there but different stores within.
              Nice mix of restaurants along Moody St. these days.

  4. I am out and about actually standing in line at Roche Bros deli.
    I am amazed at how ineffectual the nice East wind is. It really feels warm.

  5. Thanks TK, what a great discussion.

    We’ll be setting up camping tents next Friday in between those rain showers – it’s a good thing that humans are wash-and-wear and drip-dry! Love that smell of pine trees and the forest floor after it rains.

  6. The last in the series of top 10 days until…after Labor Day? Or perhaps even Columbus Day?? 🙁

    1. I think you’re getting just a LITTLE ahead of yourself there. 🙂

      Weather doesn’t work like that. 😛

  7. Thank you TK. Awesome discussion

    I could feel the heat more at Humarock this morning. Dave is absolutely correct about the piddly wind. It is the first day it was ineffective. Back in Sutton there is a lovely ESE breeze with a 57 DP and 77 temp

    I enjoy going away but is it always nice to be home.

    I’ve been driving 3S to 44W to 495N. It sure beats 3/93/95.

    1. Think back just two months ago that ESE wind would have been bone chilling. It is amazing how warm the ocean water has risen.

  9. JMA, not sure if you will see this but it’s amazing to see / hear how many media outlets made the very mistake you warned of when looking at the models for the coming week.

    One example, even today, AccuWeather is touting next week as “doesn’t look very good with daily showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain”. Forecasting is becoming a lost art. It’s very concerning.

    1. It’s vertically integrated rip and read.

      The vast availability of model data and the advent of so many information outlets creates the perfect storm for forecasters, media, and enthusiasts with a computer, to permeate the our senses with the latest model output, not sensible weather forecasts.

      So many of today’s forecasters have simply been trained to deliver model data. They do not interpret and then apply thoughtful and intuitive theory, knowledge, and experience to create a sensible forecast.

      Let’s be real – last week the ECMWF had a 72 consectice hour period of mesaurable rain in SNE for SUN-TUE. Does any practical experience in SNE in July make one think that is a reasonable forecast?

      Thursday I saw a TV met tweet out a 6z GFS map that had 12” of rain in a 120 hour period in parts of SNE. Just bad optics to catch the eye and get more views as the public spreads the word of our climatic relocation to the Amazon.

      I know multiple people who altered vacation and / or beach plans this week because of the impending “washout.”

      Reality – clouds and sun, periods of showers and thunderstorms mixed with significant dry periods. Humid with temps in the 80s. Or what I like to call summer…

    2. What you say is absolute truth. It is in all areas of media. TK the other night we said that more people are interested in weather because of easy access through social media and far too many apps to count so folks have found an audience

      BUT

      An intelligent person knows this. It may be more prevalent but it is not new. It is up to every one of us to do our due diligence. Find several sources that are more accurate, compare them and then apply what we are sorely lacking….good old common sense.

      The saying ….Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me…..is not new. Maybe I’m just old and jaded. 😉

    1. Reminds me of the heat domes of the 1980s and 1990s. So many times that happened out there. Not as persistent or intense in recent years.

  13. Atlanta had some “real thunder storms” today per my sister in law. She said most are run of the mill but these shook everything.

    Is there a time period we might have severe weather? If it is early morning hours I’d like to be somewhat awake

    1. What I find interesting is that the Cape of all places will have the best weather conditions much of this upcoming week. In a pattern change especially, they usually see the worst weather, if anything.

      2. after my time here on Appledore Island at the shoals marine lab, I am heading on down to the cape to start off August then its going down to the blue ridge MTNS

    1. Today’s probably a gloomy, non beach kind of day most of the day and you’ll need to plan accordingly.

      Don’t give up weather wise on the week to come. After all is said and done, I think it will have been a very summery week with plenty of beach weather opportunities.

    2. You’ll find later today much nicer, and the rest of the forecast remains as is. You have a pretty decent week ahead overall.

  16. If you want a nice beach vacation with pretty much guaranteed sunny warm weather with just an occasional pop up thunderstorm in the afternoon, or maybe a morning one, best bet is to go to Wilmington, NC, Myrtle Beach, or somewhere down that way. Save a little extra for transportation down there. You’ll have a much better chance at good weather, better sandy beaches, etc. Personally, I would waste my money on a beach vacation in New England. But I prefer the beaches down south. Water is 80 plus degrees, you can actually get in the water and not get hypothermia.

      1. I can’t take water much below 80. But that’s just me.
        Only beach up here really worth my time to go to is Hampton. Cape beaches are way over rated, in my opinion. Over priced rentals. What you spend on a weeks rental you can use the extra to get to Wilimington, rent a condo right on the beach and come out ahead or break even.

  18. Good morning.
    I see that the SPC took down the 2% tornado threat. Gee, there’s a surprise.
    I checked at 5AM and 7AM and all looked benign, so I crashed until close to 9 AM.
    Still looks pretty benign. Once again, call me unimpressed.

    NWS Norton Office won’t let go of the possible tornado threat.

    */ Highlights…

    – Rain band with pockets of torrential rainfall / isolated t`storms
    – Main concern: localized flash flooding, especially urban centers
    – Otherwise: low risk for a severe t`storm or two
    – High surf / dangerous rip currents along the S coast

    */ Take-Aways…

    Bands of showers / embedded thunderstorms through this afternoon.
    Torrential rainfall and localized urban flash flooding remains
    the biggest concern, but the low risk continues for an isolated
    severe thunderstorm or two with the potential of producing
    damaging winds, not ruling out the very low threat of a brief
    tornadic / waterspout spin-up.

  19. 9:15 AM and up to a gargantuan 0.04 inch. NWS still touting torrential rains.

    Clearly more is coming, but as much as the NWS is saying? doesn’t look like it to me, but
    we shall see.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25537756&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  20. Hmmm
    Just looking at the latest 12Z HRRR. Most interesting.
    Shows VERY high helicity values over the Boston area at 16Z or NOON.
    Classic HSLC set up (High Shear/Low Cape)

    0-1 KM helicity

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018072212/004/srh01.us_ne.png

    Cape (about 475 joules in Boston area)

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018072212/004/mucape.us_ne.png

    Composite reflectivity

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018072212/004/refcmp.us_ne.png

    Sounding showing threats as Marginal for tornado

    https://imgur.com/a/Bv7lZqQ

  21. I’m checked at 4:00 also….good thing as I’d forgotten to turn irrigation system off. I’m still in vacation mode. But north wasn’t here 🙁

    We have 71 with 70 DP and just over a half inch (0.54) of glorious soft rain. Seems to be training more in this way but all manageable.

    1. Went to bed at 2 and things looked a ways off. On and off downpours here so far but nothing crazy. Look like the area has halted its eastward movement a bit and is now more south to north, so maybe more rain now but the intensity has decreased on radar from earlier. Hoping it stops later this afternoon as we have two sets of family members arriving home today at Logan :).

      1. Good luck at Logan, but the way it looks you should be fine.
        Radar echoes certainly appear to be losing their punch.

        1. Thanks Dave. Hoping the expressway is not it’s usual self on the way in. We are leaving for the airport around 230.

  23. I think that the 12 Z HRRR was on Crack.
    13 Z not even close to the 12 Z. 13 Z would completely wave off any threat.

  25. Look at the tropical feed heading Northward

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=newengland-02-24-1

    nyc radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25537867&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    it looks like we’ll get more wet much later on rather than this morning.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25537867&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  27. This is a weather map I found from 10 days ago. See image below. It forecasts the snow amounts across Greenland – especially heavy in Western Greenland – for last week. The forecast was for up to 5 feet of snow in parts. I don’t know if this verified. But, I can say that it’s been the coldest summer in several decades from Ellesmere Island to Greenland, and even extending south to Labrador. Summer ice melt has been minimal in much of Greenland, and across a large swath of Northern Canada. So, while many parts of the Northern Hemisphere bake – from Japan to the British Isles to parts of the U.S., the far north has been unseasonably cold.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dh5MSSQX4AAOxR2.jpg:large

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