Friday Forecast

139 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)
July’s final 5 will present a couple transitions, first from humid to less humid as a couple fronts move through the region, then back to more humid at the end of the period as we start to feel westward expansion of high pressure from the Atlantic once again, as this was the expected predominant pattern starting in late July. These transitions come with at least some shower/thunderstorm risk. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm west to east late. Lows 63-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 77-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 64-70. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest coast.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)
Ridge dominates the East Coast again with more heat and humidity resulting. A daily opportunity for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but much of this time will be rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)
Ridge nudges back east, but overall pattern still warm/humid, with occasional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms.

139 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Call me superstitous. But after reading yesterday’s posts, I looked up all the folklore re: a sun shower. My former name “rainshine” was meant for the same thing. I took it ’cause a sun shower is so pretty. But I have changed it. (Maybe that’s been the reason for my lousy luck lately? 🙂 ) In any case, I am now Marjie.

    And Vicki, thank you for asking about me. I am having procedure in 2 wks. It would have been 2 procedures at once. So, dr. feels better one at a time. Also, I have definitely noticed the clouds, sky and weather all this time. One day earlier this week the sky was so beautiful yet weird. The humidity is rough; but the skies have been very picturesque. Hoping Mrs. OS and Joshua and anyone else feeling lousy feel better soon. I guess Sun. will be better but back into the heat and humidity again.

  5. As I pulled into the parking lot this morning, this Eagles tune, featuring twin guitar solos by Glen Frey and Don Felder, was playing, I had to listen to the whole thing before exiting my vehicle. Truly a classic. AS a throw in, they featured Boz Scaggs who
    I didn’t like at all. (Sorry TK)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoduRTF9J-o

    Btw saw this band perform in 1976 at the old Schaefer Stadium in Foxborough.
    note: Gues who opened for them? None other than Fleetwood Mac.
    Concert of a lifetime!

    JUL
    25
    1976
    Eagles at Schaefer Stadium, Foxborough, MA, USA
    Artist: Eagles, Tour: One Of These Nights , Venue: Schaefer Stadium, Foxborough, MA, USA
    Take It EasyOutlaw ManDesperadoOne of These NightsAlready GoneRocky Mountain WayLyin’ EyesTake It to the LimitWitchy WomanJames Dean …

    JUL
    25
    1976
    Boz Scaggs at Schaefer Stadium, Foxborough, MA, USA
    Artist: Boz Scaggs, Tour: Silk Degrees , Venue: Schaefer Stadium, Foxborough, MA, USA
    LowdownLido ShuffleHarbor LightsGeorgiaWhat Can I SayJump StreetWe’re All AloneLove Me TomorrowIt’s Over

    JUL
    25
    1976
    Fleetwood Mac at Schaefer Stadium, Foxborough, MA, USA
    Artist: Fleetwood Mac, Tour: One of These Nights , Venue: Schaefer Stadium, Foxborough, MA, USA
    Say You Love MeRhiannonLandslideOver My HeadWorld TurningHypnotized

    2. Awesome song and wow, what a concert that would be. I just downloaded the album for my morning listening. Thank you!!!

      1. Many people do, including Tk I believe. But, unfortunately,
        my musical tastes are rather narrow compared to most.

        I like ROCK and more on the edgy/hard side. I can tolerate
        an occasional pop tune and sometimes even country. I do not care for Jazz, hip-hop and rap.

        Here is a rare country tune I like to give you a flavor.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBsB_nOvvZQ

        In fact I like this tune as much as any I have ever liked.
        I am listening now with headsets. I forgot how AWESOME’
        this tune is!!!

        1. I also like Boz. I think you have great taste in music. I also think you and I differ a fair amount. I listen to today’s country along with new age and then oldies but I’m not a fan of Carter.

          Some of my favorites

          Tim Janis
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO8LpCJ2jaA

          Kenny Chesney – his new album comes out today which I’ll download on Apple music – this new song is one of my favorites
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luHhJalHanw

          Luke Bryan – especially is new song
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liqktLC7xR0

          This is my new all time favorite – Artists from Then and Now – Forever Country
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9gAXwYZtfk

          Tim McGraw – May we All – I found my little town
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dIirPpxJoY

          Anything from the 60s and early 70s and even late 50s

      1. I was at Schaefer a few weeks before that on July 4! Saw Elton John (3 hours). Came out dressed as the Statue of Liberty holding the torch on the top of his Piano…great concert. John Miles (High Fly) and Dave Mason (We Just Disagree) opened for him. Great day..hot as hell too iirc. Overall I’m not a big fan of a lot of the stuff that came out of the 70s (maybe because there are too many classic rock stations on the radio). I prefer the 60s, 80s and early 90s (as well as a lot of new stuff). I’m pretty open to almost all music except for Opera….

        2. Wow – I love Elton John – that sounds amazing. I’d say Opera and hard rock are the two I really do not like.

          1. I was a big Elton Fan through the late 70s…a few things from the 80s…after that not so much.

            I was a Country Rock fan during the 70s. My cousin introduced me to The Byrds when I was 13 with their “Sweetheart of the Rodeo” album. I knew of them due to their Dylan covers, etc a few years prior. After that I followed groups like The Flying Burrito Brothers, Poco, Loggins and Messian (more Yacht Rock than Country Rock), The Eagles, etc. Even though I got away from the genre for the most part once the 80s came around I still loved its influence on music to this day.

  8. SPC Outlook for today

    CASE #ROWS.sort

    WHEN 1 THEN #ROWS.num_cons * (#ROWS.rate-(#ROWS.mo_costs/#ROWS.num_cons))
    END AS 1_spend,

  10. Thanks TK
    Strong to severe storms western areas SNE and watch that line fizzle as it crosses SNE.

  11. looking at the 06z gfs parameters. kg looks like
    severe weather more likely tomorrow for Eastern mass.

      1. I am no expert but the 3km nam showing most convection starting around 2 pm. but its hit urmisd. not everyone will get rain.

      2. tornado? that’s interesting. but as you mentioned its probably overdone. i think the spc will put us under marginal risk for tomorrow. we will see what happens. I hope we get good storms tomorrow, this way I won’t have to chase them today lol.

          1. thanks for posting. I am still new at trying to read these charts but Google helped me a lot. where do you get these soundings exactly from which site?

            1. On the Pivotal Weather, select your map.
              To determine the best place to obtain
              the soundings, select something like
              Most unstable CAPE or 0-1Km Helicity.
              Just something that suggests severe might be possibe.

              Then Right click anywhere on the map
              to obtain a sounding for the selected
              location.

              Much data packed into those soundings.
              Pretty awesome that it is available
              to us.

  13. I agree with Kane that the SPC will probably extend the marginal risk into more of SNE for tomorrow. It’s not an ideal severe weather setup, kind of one where none of the parameters are “great” but all look at least “adequate” for a few storms, a couple of which may become strong to severe.

    And for today, certainly no issues for most of us. Could be a busy afternoon/evening in eastern NY, NJ, PA, and the Berks though.

    1. have we had any ideal set up this year?it seems like its rare. I thought maybe two or three times a year we would have all the right ingredients. kinda like in the winter when everything has to be right to set up for a big snowstorm. seems like always something is missing. whether it’s the CAPEA not high. steep lapse rates,wind shear,etc. we will have one but not the other.

      1. Back on May 15th when there were four tornadoes in CT all the ingredients were there including and elevated mixed layer. To me When you look back at our big severe weather events an elevated mixed layer is present which helps to sustain updrafts.

        1. yes thanks jj. I don’t know how I forgot that event as I did go chasing that day. most severe weather we had and it was early season too

          1. One of those tornadoes was just south of me that day. I felt very fortunate. What we had that day is not typical of May in terms of severe weather.

  14. That last statement you said matches up perfectly where the SPC has the slight risk for today.

  16. Will see what the rest of the 12z data shows but would not surprise me if eastern areas are in a marginal risk when the SPC updates day 2 outlook around 1:30pm today

  18. Will see how it pans out but could be situation where the western areas get the locally strong or severe storm today and the eastern areas could get it tomorrow.

  19. 12z GFS tomorrow showing some of the severe parameters favorable for locally strong to severe storms for eastern areas tomorrow.

  20. Hello!! I have a question and it may be a weird question. In the 9 yrs here we have noticed that the storms typically die as they move into Eastern Mass? Is it ocean? Thank you!!

    1. That’s a big factor, with more stable air due to the ocean cooling it off.

      Also, southeast Mass tends to be further away from the best dynamics that are usually associated further north and west, closer to the storm track. Dynamics are things in the atmosphere that cause lift, like a fast jet stream aloft, etc

    2. Thanks Tom for the answer. I was thinking same as Snow but always need a refresher.

      Snow….there are no weird questions. That’s the beauty of WHW. If there were, TK would delete most of mine 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I must be getting used to it. I mentioned to my daughter when we were out (she airs me out most every day 😉 ) that I thought it was much less humid even though its in the high 80s. I just looked and the DP is 73. Either that or my brain fried !!

  22. We might be headed back to bad habits as far as higher temps next week. Seeing signals of 18c (850 mb) temps. Also, 500 mb heights of 590 dm+, BUT a different location of the Bermuda high which may have more continental (land) influence than the most recent one, which was 100% of the air coming from the ocean. It was very humid, but the high temp really never exceeded about 88F. I think mid to late next week, signs show 90 to 95F coming back into place because of more of a land component, combined with high humidity. Official heat wave possible.

    1. Although I don’t mind the weather….in large part because we have an AC because I’ve discovered the heat takes a bit out of me whereas it never used to….I’d really like to be able to open my windows and let the sun and wind run through the house.

    1. One year they almost had to shut down the Pilgrim nuke plant in Plymouth
      because the sea water temp was too high,

  24. I believe a severe thunderstorm watch has been hoisted and the eastern part of the watch extends into western New England.

        1. This is separate. I meant the one Tom describes
          the eastern part of the watch extends into western New England.

          That one went almost to Worcester.

          The new extends it almost to the coast.

          1. I’m guessing because the storms are already developed further east than the original watch.

            1. One never know, does one?
              Will any make it to the coast? probably
              not severe, but will they make it.
              We shall see.

              1. It was nice to see last nights thunderstorm make it to the coast as a quick moderate to heavy shower. We’ll take it 🙂

  26. Mac’s twin brother just texted me. He lives just east of San Francisco. He said they were watching coverage of the Carr fire and the fire tornadoes it is spawning. He also said there are fires literally all over the state. Just awful.

    The video is chilling. The photos also. God Bless everyone in the path of these and the men and women who risk their lives to put them out.

    https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/firenado-Carr-Fire-Shasta-County-wildfire-video-13110479.php#photo-15927785

  27. What I find interesting are the storms firing in Connecticut, much farther South
    than the ones out by Albany, NY. Will these propagate towards Eastern MA and RI?
    Ahhh, that is the question.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=ENX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25545245&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  28. Norton NWS office NOT expecting any storms to make it to the coast:

    In eastern MA and in RI, the atmosphere is very dry aloft this
    afternoon, as indicated by very low K Indices. Any decaying
    storms approaching from the west this evening will have a hard
    time moving east. Cannot rule out showers, though, in those
    areas.

    1. The Storms traversing Connecticut seem to be running into a BRICK WALL.
      😀 😀 😀
      DRY AIR ALOFT? as described above? Or something else?

  31. User formerly known as “rainshine”, your post under your new name from 7:53AM has been approved. Sorry it took me all day to get to it. No access to my admin account on my phone until I fix an issue I’ve been lazy about fixing. 😉

    1. Hi Marjie!! So happy to see you here. I was wondering how you are doing and hoping you’ve had time to enjoy the clouds and sky this past week.

      1. Thanks, Vicki. I am ok. My dr. and I discussed the situation and he will do one procedure in his office; the other we will discuss depending on results. It’s been frustrating. I feel ok but this constant humidity has me not feeling that great as others here are feeling the effects, too. But it is summer. And I have really enjoyed the sky and clouds. Summer has a special light to it – hard to explain. In any case, that must have been something with that tornado so close to you! I am hoping for some nice rain and even thunderstorms – but no tornadoes, please!

  33. HRRR has been doing an excellent job with convection. I expect its performance to remain fairly good.

    I do think most of the storms to the west and north through evening weaken or die out as they come to the east southeast tonight, but overnight a little punch of energy may fire up a cluster or line coming eastward across CT which may reach RI & southeastern MA in some form.

    The cold front never gets offshore until Saturday evening so with the boundary in southeastern New England tomorrow and decent heating, we should fire up storms midday into afternoon favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI. A few of these may end up severe. Can’t rule that out. Quiets down at night but watch for one additional shower or storm possible northern MA / southern NH early.

    Sunday is a threat-free day.

  36. so I just noticed that the 18z HRRR actually goes to 32 hourss??? not 18 hours as I thought. and this is only the 18z HRRR the rest is up to 18 hours. anyone know why that is??

    1. The HRRR recently received a long planned upgrade (which seems to have made an already good model better). It continues to run hourly out to 18 hours. However, the 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z cycles now run out to 36 hours. There’s some sort of glitch on Tropical Tidbits where it only plots those cycles to 32 or 33 hours. But the idea is, four times per day you’ll get the “extended” HRRR run. I’m sure there will be more changes in the future in terms of the run schedule and physics of the HRRR, as NCEP continues to spend more on R&D for that model than any other.

  38. I also like the HRRR “extended” but now ironic that this model, which has been doing excellently, completely missed the storms that are currently ongoing in north central MA and southern NH for a few runs in a row. Oops.

      1. Nope. It’s just what WxW was referring to above, 4 of the runs going out longer than the others.

  40. Big decrease in cloud-to-ground lightning in the last half hour as that cluster of storms has moved into southern NH. Maxed out over the Fitchburg area.

        1. Aren’t you glad I’m here to point out what is obvious to you ….. I could tell you were waiting for me help 😉 😉

          1. Oh stop that. 🙂 I just like that you’re involved whether I know it or not! 😛

  41. My husband just asked me why do we have an overriding lady taking over family fued? The storms are way out west. They have taken over channel 7?

    2. It isn’t really necessary beyond a box on the screen off and on for an update. For the most part that area will dissipate before getting much further east. It’s on the decrease now other than minor flare-ups of smaller cells.

  42. Clark Booth passed away at the age of 79. What an intellect and story-teller. Known as a sports journalist and reporter to many, he also “dabbled” (as Clark would say) in reporting and writing on current events, international conflicts, religion. I’ll never forget his voice or the unmistakable New England accent.

  43. I’m reading a review of two serious books on climate change. Interesting. I’m aware that the books and the reviewer favor the humans-cause-climate-change narrative. A bit too much for my liking, especially since a few of the anecdotal facts included in the review are clearly there to sway the reader (eg, “the North Pole experienced above-freezing temperatures on consecutive days in the middle of winter”) and don’t contribute in my view to a sound debate. Such statements are just as bad as Sean Hannity declaring in 2010 in the middle of a blizzard in Washington DC that climate change is a hoax. Foolish. Nevertheless, the review is worthy of our attention, and the books, too. I include a link to the book review. I don’t know if there’s a paywall. I subscribe, so I can cut and paste the article in case the link for any of you doesn’t work.

    https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2018/08/16/arctic-big-melt/

  44. I sat out for the first time since vacation until the mosquitoes chased me in. A moth seems to have accompanied me inside however.

    I could see occasional lightning due west. It was fun

    1. Soooo glad you had a great vacation SSK. We thought about doing the same last week but I was out by 9am sat Kids had till noon.

      1. Thank you Vicki I’ve been working some serious hours so relaxing all week was nice . This week though we all keep saying it went in the blink of an eye so incredibly fast .

  46. Well, as promised on here ….line west of Sutton just went POOF. Glad I got to sit out and see some lightning.

    1. Models show next to nothing.
      I am of the opinion that today remains dry, certainly here at the ole
      Homestead. That’s almost a guarantee. We shall see if anything changes.

      78, dp 70 here!!!

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