Monday Forecast

103 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)
Today’s update finds no need again for major changes to the forecast. After coming down a little bit later in the weekend, the humidity remains below the oppressive category early this week as the last couple days of July go by, and then as the Bermuda High takes over again it’s back as we start August, along with the risk of showers and thunderstorms at times. Heat won’t be too high, although humidity compensates for that and makes it feel hotter anyway. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-86, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-69. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a late day shower. More humid late. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Humid. Slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-72. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 82-90, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs in the 80s to around 90.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)
Ridge dominates the East Coast again with more heat and humidity resulting but a slightly lower risk of showers and storms August 4-6 before the threat increases again as the ridge nudges eastward and the heat eases slightly later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)
Ridge is a bit more to the east and trough a little closer to the region early in the period with a better shower/thunderstorm risk, then ridge comes back west yet again with additional heat and humidity toward the end of the period.

103 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  7. Thanks TK
    Latest SREF model has shifted that slight tornado risk west. It is now over Berkshires VT and parts of Upstate NY for Wed.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Vicki, I was kidding when I said I was 28 in 1946. That would make me 100 now! I do remember in the 70s hearing folks reminiscing about the 1946 season.

    1. That 1946 season was the last time they were in the series up until 1975 so not surprising there was a lot of reminiscing. I remember old timers blaming Johnny Pesky “holding onto the ball” too long in the series at St. Louis much like we all blamed Bill Buckner in 1986.

  9. From meteorologist John Homenuk
    Don’t sleep on severe weather potential in the NE US this week. While meager lapse rates will preclude a widespread threat, favorable mid level wind fields, moisture & instability suggest stronger gust (iso tornado?) threat in convection.

    1. This whole Wednesday threat is looking less and less.
      It boils down to this: I’ll believe it when I see it.

      re: DQ
      It was nice and refreshing, although it was about 20-30 minute wait in line.
      The line just doesn’t move when almost everyone is ordering blizzards of
      assorted varieties. 😀

      2. I hope that blizzard was worth the wait considering the drive from JP to Quincy. Personally I stack my fridge with my own ice cream. Haven’t been to a DQ in ages, since I was a kid. 😀

        1. an EMPHATIC YES!!!

          And the drive from my house to Quincy normally isn’t bad.
          I did say normally, because on occasion it can be brutal.

    2. If my math is correct, 65 and ready for retirement? Less than a decade for me until I get there. Or is it age 67? 🙂

      1. Vicki – I went to St Joe’s and Chenery, so I might have if he was at either of those, but never went to the Jr. High or HS. Went private 7-12.
        Spent an awful lot of time at Washington St and Grove St. playgrounds as a kid.

        1. Chris went to Chenery for grades 4-6. I was playground instructor or whatever it was called at Washington St (you mean Chenery/Jr High?) but you would have been older.

          We lived on Choate rd at corner of Grove when I was 3rd and 4th grade and I lived at Grove playground.

          1. I was at Chenery for grades 5 and 6, fall of ’63 to spring of ’65, if I have my math right.
            We lived on Long Ave, one block over from Washington St. We roamed the streets and playgrounds day after day — what a fabulous world.
            Grove St. was Little League territory, so I was there 3 or 4 times a week in spring for years.
            We might have to connect via email; perhaps TK can help us. I am out the door and offline for most the day but will check back later, of course. I am not on FB or any social media. I am pretty much from the stone age. 🙂

            1. My grandfather built a lot of the homes on Long. It is a lovely area. My mom’s house that he built and where she grew up was 33 Hillcrest. I’ll ask TK if he would mind sending you my email.

            2. TK said he will send my email to you. I asked him to please do so at his convenience. Maybe put MassBay in the subject if you write. My spam filter has been tossing everything in to spam lately. I’ll keep an eye there also.

              1. I spent more hours than I could count directly across the street from 33 Hillcrest playing street hockey. Hundreds and hundreds of hours.
                Got your email address from TK.
                Will follow up tomorrow.
                The dots are only getting closer together. We are about to enter…. The Twilight Zone 🙂 🙂 🙂

                1. Ha. I kind of thought it was headed in that direction a while ago. I look forward to hearing from you

  11. Good morning and thanks, TK…
    Re: Nighttime thunderstorms…
    Does anyone remember the supercell that came through the area in the middle of the night, August 9-10, 2000. Unbelievable lightning and a Tornado Warning for Taunton that cleared the ops floor at the National Weather Service.
    More recently, the February 26, 2016 storms prompted five consecutive Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for our area in the wee hours.

    In regards to the August, 2000 storm, I was trying to think of the weather conditions in my lifetime that actually frightened me. That storm was one. Hurricane Gloria in 1985. There was one gust during that storm that shook the house. The freak snowstorm/hurricane on December 9, 2005. Rain had turned to snow in less than a half an hour. By 2 pm, Middleboro was in the midst of a full blizzard. The winds were in excess of 80 mph. I could hear the pine trees snapping and falling on campus, but I couldn’t see where they were landing. A normal 25-minute ride home took two and a half hours.

  13. For me when I was five years old on July 10, 1989 when the tornado came through around 5pm was the first time I was frightened by weather. A second time was back on January 26, 2011 when we had non stop Noreaster’s for six weeks. I was coming back from work at night in the snow. The snow picked up in intensity caused white out conditions. I could not see and ended up pulling over to side of the highway. A man coming off from his shift from the hospital pulled over to see if I was okay. Snow at this point was piling up around the car. I was shoveling around the car and he had I forgot what it was something to pull the car out. Got the car out. Snow once again picked up intensity. I pull of the highway and pulled into gas station and guys were telling me go down the street there is a diner. I am going down the street no diner and my mom calls me on my cell worried about me and I said mom I don’t see a diner I see a hospital. She said I am calling that hospital to see if you could take shelter there. She calls back and they allowed me to spend night there in waiting room area.

    1. Thanks for sharing that story Jimmy. I forgot about that 2011 winter had well above normal snowfall, then the following had practically none. IIRC Boston had 80+ inches.

  14. re: Weather that frighten us….

    Not sure I can remember a weather event that scared me.
    Hurricanes Carol, Edna, Donna, Gloria and Bob: NOPE
    Thunderstorms: NOPE
    Snowstorms/Blizzards: NOPE (not even a drive from Stowe VT to Watervulle Valley, NH in the middle of the night during a raging blizzard)

    Perhaps the one and only time was back in the late 50s/early 60s? and I was fishing with my pals via bicycle some 5 miles from home in a neighboring town. Luckily I had told my Mom where we would be. She actually found us, put the bikes in the car and took us home as there was a big Tornado Watch out. I came home and put Don Kent on the TV . It turns out there was too much cloudiness and the only tornado occurred out by Schenectady Ny. That was my first ever tornado watch and after the Worcester tornado, this actually scared the crap out of me.

    1. You are a braver man than I. Nighttime thunderstorms scare the heck out of me, even when I am tucked into bed at home. However, for some reason I do love to watch thundersnow…go figure. 🙂

      1. I love thunderstorms, most especially at night.
        I love the way the whole sky lights up.
        My wife and son are scared to death of them, especially the vicious ones with frequent cloud to ground lightning.

        I must admit, I have a very healthy respect for lightning.

        A few years ago, a house down the street (say 150 feet from my house) was struck, blowing a massive hole in the roof and causing extensive fire damage.

  16. Latest SREF has slight tornado risk area now from central PA northwest CT Berkshires eastern NY state VT, and most of NH.

  17. JJ, top image is 12Z NAM sounding for your area of CT 2Pm Wednesday and the bottom one is for the Boston Area, just outside of downtown:

    https://imgur.com/a/GBGfkc5

    Top shows risk of Tornado while the bottom shows marginal risk for tornado.

  18. Thanks for the links JPDave.
    SPC currently has us in general thunderstorm risk for Wed. I remember back prior to the tornadoes we had back on May 15th in CT the SPC two days prior had us in general thunderstorm risk. The next day upgraded to marginal and the day of the event you saw a large enhanced area and a moderate risk area. I am not saying the same thing will happen this time but if were seeing these models trends continue I would think somewhere in the northeast there would be a marginal risk put up by the SPC sometime tomorrow.

    1. This morning is the first time I am seeing some model consistency
      for the severe “possibility”. We’ll continue to monitor.

  19. Probably overdone with the NAM but between 2pm – 8pm Wed 500mb bulk shear in the 40 – 50 range for most of SNE with the exception of the south shore Cape and Islands. If you drop the low and high end by ten and its in the 30-40 range it is sufficient wind shear for thunderstorms.

    1. There is “some” helicity, but the values are not all that high.
      However, there is wind velocity shear with altitude.

      So, one must not only look at wind shear with altitude, but velocity
      shear as well. I think we are looking at the combination of the 2
      for Wednesday. Tornado risk is quite low, but as you said not zero.

  20. 12Z 3KM NAM, not nearly as bullish on the severe weather.
    Still has a marginal threat for Tornado in the Boston area and Tornado
    threat inland.

    We continue to monitor.

  22. Philip, yes indeed, back in 1975 I remember the interviews of older folks milling around Fenway Park talking about Enos Slaughter like it was yesterday. In 1975, it had been only 29 years since the 1946 WS against the Cardinals. Gosh, at that time we were only 30 years removed from WWII.

    By the way, I’ve been both terrified of and loved thunderstorms ever since my first viewing of The Sound of Music. I had such a crush on Julie Andrews when I was all of 9 years old.

  23. I absolutely loved reading all of your stories and your concerns regarding weather.

    I was not scared by what I believe had to have been Carol and the water came into the house we were renting in Humarock. I was fascinated. Several years later when I would have still been in grade school (again at Humarock), we were listening to the weather on TV. The met said something and I immediately said that means there could be a tornado. A few minutes later he said the same. So I organized tornado watches for my friend, my brother and his friend where we monitored windows and then reported to the middle of the room on what we saw every so often.

    BUT the June 1 tornado outbreak did scare me. I like thunderstorms at night because I can see the lightning but NOT when I’m asleep and cannot follow the radar. I would not be happy living in an area that is earthquake prone or mudslide or fire prone or tornado prone.

  24. Question – I seem to think this has been touched on but do not recall whether there is a direct correlation between our high number of humid days and the increase in tornadoes.

  25. My Mom was absolutely frightened by lightning storms. At the first sound of thunder she went through her ritual of unplugging everything, removing any metal pins or clips from her hair, donning sneakers, and so on.

    My Dad was at the other extreme – he headed straight to the open front porch for a better view! I was always out there with him. I have great memories of these moments, even though my poor Mom was put into even more of a panic by our activities.

    It got no better when my Mom’s friend’s house was struck by lightening. That woman’s name, I am not making this up, was Millie Sparks!

    1. I’m not laughing at poor Millie’s house being struck but really – what are the odds?

      My mom was terrified also. She had a friend who was watching TV and it blew out into the room after a lightning strike and hurt him severely. She also unplugged everything but for the most part I do as well if it isn’t in a surge strip. Even my computer that is in a surge strip I unplug and I pull the cable that is connected to the printer and the cable box. I stay away from plumbing but that is only common sense. And I turn off the AC and TVs, etc.

      Of course then I sit in the window with my iPad so I can see the radar. I do put the devices aside when the storm gets close but really, there is a serious problem with my thought process.

      My mom would wake us up during a storm and we’d sit on the stairs in the middle of the house. It just added to our excitement. I wonder if your mom’s nervousness created an air of excitement for you as well as your dad’s love of storms.

  27. NWS discussion continues the theme of showers and thunderstorms, with
    the “possibility” that some “may” be strong or severe BUT mainly over
    the interior (What else is new?).

    .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
    Highlights…

    * Heat and humidity returns
    * Scattered showers and storms, mainly across interior

    Larger scale pattern is expected to feature rising heights aloft
    over southern New England as we see return of subtropical ridge,
    bringing back several days of heat and humidity. Pattern also
    favors scattered showers and thunderstorms during afternoon and
    evening, mainly across interior where instability should be
    greater as S/SW flow stabilizes areas closer to coast.

    Ensembles show precipitable water anomalies rising to +2 to +3
    standard deviations with actual values likely exceeding 2 inches
    by Wed and Thu, resulting in potential for locally heavy
    rainfall. In addition, SPC SREF shows decent probabilities of
    most-unstable CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of
    35-40kt, which leads to potential for strong to possibly severe
    storms (again focused on the interior).

  29. Latest SREF has my part in CT in that small tornado risk at 2am Thurs morning. 12z NAM wants to continue to the severe threat during the overnight while 12z GFS shuts off the threat before sunset Wednesday but has another round of storms on Thursday.

    1. Here is the NAM sounding for your area JJ. Please note on the bottom right,
      the risk for each EF rating. It has it just about to EF4, meaning the threat
      is there for EF2 and EF3, not just the usual EF0 and EF1 we see around
      these parts.

      https://imgur.com/a/rkyniE3

      CAVEAT…

      These soundings at Pivotal Weather are typically over done.

      Even so, the Tornado threat for Boston becomes severe threat
      and the higher level tornado threat for SW CT, becomes more of a threat
      for EF0 and EF1 tornadoes.

      No matter, it deserves to be closely monitored just in case.

  32. Thanks for the link JPDave. I am also noticing with this run of the NAM along with 12z run the threat of strong severe storms goes into the overnight.
    I am wondering because we have seen in the past where we have a lot of instability but no trigger to act on the instability and hopefully this is the case here because there is a heck of a lot of instability this model is showing.
    From SPC. Don’t have access to the EURO to see what its showing for destabilization
    The GFS continues to be more conservative with destabilization compared to the NAM/ECMWF, but fast moving lines/clusters appear likely regardless.

    1. Euro not overly impressive at this time, but does show some spotty
      severe but NOT tornado. At least my service.

  34. MassBay you have an email under the address you use for this blog and it is from Woods Hill Weather’s gmail account, in case it went to the spam folder. 😉

  36. Question – we live in a 1st floor apartment with no basement. Lots of trees around. If there was ever a tornado, we thought the safest place would be the bathroom as there are no windows and it’s totally enclosed. However, if there is a thunderstorm and lots of lightning at the same time – even if we don’t run water – are we safe in the bathtub? Our closets are the folding type – not solid doors.

    1. You would be safest in that bathtub with blankets or a small mattress over you. Even with lightning, your chances of being indirectly struck are still very small and definitely worth the risk of protecting yourself from potential flying debris.

      1. Thank you, TK. There is an apt. above us and as I said, lots of trees around. So thanks again for the good advice.

    2. I always worried about that in framingham. The House didn’t have a basement and we had huge trees on both sides and in back. I figured we’d go to our interior bathroom also. Here we have a basement and I think we’d go to the part closest to the bulkhead or perhaps in the bulkhead but I don’t know if the doors could blow off

      1. Adding that even though plumbing isn’t safe in lightning storm, I had heard the pipes in the walls made the walls stronger in a tornado. Maybe that is incorrect

  37. Oh boy, a TV met used data from LAWRENCE to highlight how warm it’s been this month. The only problem is, Lawrence runs 2 to 4 degrees too warm every day.

  38. Just spoke to out daughter who was PISSED she didn’t get an alarm on
    her phone. I told her to check her settings for the weather alerts.

  39. I was in Shaw’s yesterday.
    They have a whole wall of Reese’s products in orange boxes with black outlines of witches, ghosts, and goblins.
    Freakin Halloween candy out. 29th of July.
    And I saw a back to school commercial. They just got out a month ago, at least in a lot of Massachusetts. I expect to see pumpkin spiced whatever and cider donuts out next week.

    1. Now I can see pushing spring in March, at least nationally because a big part of the southern CONUS warns up to spring levels by the end of March. But fall stuff in July? For anywhere is insane.

  40. Hello!! I will add we have never been scared of any weather event here in New England. Which sorta saddens us bc we like super exciting events. Honestly there is nothing and I mean nothing like hearing a tornado siren going off. Honestly from lots of experience 75% of the time even when you here a tornado siren going off you don’t get a tornado. We’ve lived in Texas for 27 years never saw or experienced a tornado. The news makes it sound like millions were effected when really they are super localized. However again they are the most adrenaline rush in weather you can have imo.

    1. I was born and raised in Oklahoma. I’ve lived hear 25 years. I have yet to see a severe weather event here that scared me at all.
      I would sleep through a tornado if it were a mile away going in the other direction. One going away from me may as well be in the next state.
      Doesn’t mean a little F0 or F1 we get here isn’t any less destructive, but severe here doesn’t worry me a whole lot, if any.

  41. For the snow folks like me tweet from Eric Fisher
    You’ll hear a lot about the solar minimum when we start talking about winter outlooks, because research shows there is more high latitude blocking during the bottoms of the solar cycle. End result can be a snowy winter in these parts. Just one piece of the puzzle.

  42. Back to School commercials drove me insane as a child – almost literally. I hated school so much that when I saw a back to school commercial my heart sank and I turned off the TV (no mute buttons then). And, they drive me insane today. And, as Blackstone mentioned, the Halloween stuff in July. That’s equally insane.

    Retailers are pushing these wares as early as July because they know that by doing so people will buy too much of everything. My guess is that over 90% of Halloween candy purchased in July is eaten by the purchaser and his or her family by, say, September 15th. Almost no family will have the discipline to store candy for 3 months. I know that I don’t have that kind of discipline. Plus, it may go stale or simply melt in this weather.

    1. I never liked back to school because I always loved having my kids home

      But you have heard it from me a million times ….if we are silly enough to let the marketing control is then where should we really be pointing the finger. 😉

  43. Latest SREF run has western CT, the Berkshires, and VT in that slight tornado risk area for Wed at the time of 8pm.

  45. 00z EURO projected 850mb temps look a bit like the first week of July, when some continental heat arrives from the southwest and Midwest. Seeing some big 20C contours towards the latter part of the run. Let’s see if this signal continues and moves forward in the coming days.

  46. Good morning,

    Just looking at model runs. Although some severe parameters are in place,
    models show no convection. So parameters don’t matter IF there is no lift
    for convection. Let’s see what the 12z runs show and then the High resolution short range models say as we get closer.

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