Tuesday Forecast

118 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)
Humidity’s getting ready to make a come-back, to be felt increasing slightly later today but much more noticeably during Wednesday as a warm front passes through. This front may bring a few showers and then trigger a few thunderstorms as it passes. Thursday through Saturday will be very warm and humid days with a daily risk for a few showers and storms as we’ll be in a southwesterly flow around a Bermuda High. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-86, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Humid. Slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-72. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning. Partly sunny with isolated thunderstorms afternoon. Humid. Highs 82-90. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)
Ridge dominates the East Coast again with more heat and humidity resulting but a slightly lower risk of showers and storms August 5-6 before the threat increases again as the ridge nudges eastward and the heat eases slightly mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)
Ridge is a bit more to the east and trough a little closer to the region early in the period with a better shower/thunderstorm risk, then ridge comes back west yet again with additional heat and humidity toward the end of the period.

118 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. 2 quick things…

    If there is any severe weather tomorrow it will be isolated and most likely with an isolated storm just behind the warm front.

    Keep in mind how poor the Euro forecast the “insane heat” of early July, which was really just “hot weather”. You’ll see it again.

    1. True re : euro heat.

      Not so caught up on whether it’s 95 vs 108.

      During that early July stretch, we had plenty of locations that were 95F with dew points in the low 70s that had heat indices over 100F. Wondering if something like that may be returning again. 🙂

  2. Thanks TK. The 6z GFS certainly resembles some of those early July runs with multiple days of 100+ heat through mid-August. Of course, we all remember how that worked out. Still, the signal is there for well above normal temperatures the next two weeks, and August will be an early favorite to be Top 10 or Top 5 warmest.

    1. A
      So nice to see that cooler air diving out of Canada at hour 372 even though it will probably not happen!

  4. Thank you, TK. I’m keeping windows open until the last possible minute. It is a lovely morning.

    1. It has been a really lovely summer, hasn’t it. I do feel very badly for those that struggle with this just as I feel badly for those who struggle with cold.

      Are you back to work?

        1. Hardest part of vacation, isn’t it. I love what I do, but I must be getting ready to at least semi retire. And one week is short.

          Several years ago, the man we rent from didn’t have the house booked for the week after ours so offered us the second week at no cost. Smartest thing he ever did. We couldn’t go back to just one week and have been paying for two ever since 🙂

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I’m hanging my hat on hour 372 (GFS model). Fat chance, of course, of that happening. As anyone noticed how many systems have missed us to our south this summer? It’s frequently been raining cats and dogs (whales and sharks) just off the coast (couple of hundred miles south and southeast of Nantucket). And, throughout the summer parts of the mid-Atlantic have been hit with lots of rain.

  8. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    Once upon a time I was a member of the AMS (American Meteorological Society).
    Thinking of joining again. Can anyone tell me if it is worth the money?

    Many thanks

    1. What does a member do? You have caught my interest. I’m thinking they have to have a whole lot more knowledge than I do.

      1. From what I can tell, ANYONE who wants to put up the membership fee ($54) and Purchase a minimum of $150
        worth of publications can join. (Unless I am missing something)

        So, I guess my real question is whether or not the publications
        are worth the money. The are available online or hard copy.

        https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/membership/

        1. ahhh – I think I’ll pass then. I’m still eyeing a sound bar to go with my TV and music system and think the money would be better put toward that 🙂 🙂 🙂

              1. However, my wife offered for
                a birthday present (at least for 1 year), so I am still thinking. 😀

                2. If I am not mistaken, you and rainshine have a birthday this Friday! Same day my youngest grand, Rilyn Mac, will turn two.

    2. Dave, I can’t tell you if it is worth it, but it is a source of knowledge and information, and meteorology is your passion!

      It sounds like a thoughtful gift that you would enjoy, even if only for a year. After the first year you would know firsthand if you want to keep going with it.

      1. But just read your other comments below, can see how it would depend on the quality of those publications. I wonder if TK or JMA or SAK belong.

  9. Thanks TK
    From NWS Boston/Norton
    while mid level lapse rates appear to be weak, environment should feature strong 0-6km shear of 40-50kt, which favors line segments with potential for localized wind damage. Also need to be aware of possibility of a tornado given low LCLs in tropical airmass, favorable hodographs which show sufficient low level turning of winds, and 0-500m helicity approaching 100. Also have localized flash flood threat with precipitable water values climbing to over 2 inches and dewpoints in lower 70s. Again, a low confidence forecast for Wed but potentially high impact if storms can develop.

    2. Thank you, JJ. Is there a rough idea of timing for the “weather” tomorrow? I’m hoping not during sleeping hours. I would prefer to be awake but I’m also concerned for all people in the way of anything that could cause enough damage to injure someone or worse.

        1. Thank you, JPD. Better timing than middle of the morning. I’m still amazed that large trees were split near several homes near here that literally sat beside homes and there is no actual home damage that is visible. There is a lot of forested land along the path here and there could be damage to homes that isn’t visible from the road. And the best part is there were no reports of any injury.

      2. It looks like two rounds of showers and storms tomorrow. One in the morning with the warm front which will put us in the warm sector and another in the afternoon. Sunshine tomorrow will be a bad thing since it will destabilize the atmosphere further. Root that the clouds hang tough. The threat appears to be isolated for getting a locally strong or severe storm.

        1. True and IF both materialize, then I believe
          the biggest threat in Eastern Sections will be with
          the Warm Front and the biggest threat in Western
          sections will be any lat day convection.

          We shall see how it plays out.

  10. The way I read the discussion not concerned about it but will watch it.
    NWS out of Upton, NY doesn’t say tornado but implies it is possible.
    There will also be some good low level shear which later shifts will have to monitor for other possible severe weather threats with a good backing of the surface wind late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. The best chance of convective organization is for northwestern sections with higher bulk shear values indicated by guidance.

    1. As I said earlier this morning, we can have the highest CAPE and HELCITY
      and BULk SHEAR we want, BUT if there is no trigger for convection, then
      SEE YA. So we shall see.

      HRRR seems to want the convection while NAMS do not.

  11. We have seen that many times with a lot of instability but no trigger.
    SREF has a slight tornado chance Springfield area west in MA and Hartford area west in CT.

    1. Thank you – I have a day long phone conference so jump here when there is a bit of a break. I’ll look now.

  13. 12Z HRRR suggest convection tomorrow mid-day with high Cape, Helicity and Bulk Shear.

    IF the HRRR is on target, we’ll need to be on our toes tomorrow.

  14. The line from NWS Boston/Norton to me tells the story for tomorrow.
    Low confidence forecast for Wed but potentially high impacts if storms can develop

  15. Two hundred dollars seems a lot to join the AMS. I’ve seen that “AMS” next to the tv mets’ names but I always assumed that an actual met degree was required. I suppose it is good to know that the organization is not totally exclusive. I would be curious though if those with an actual degree get reduced rates in membership.

    1. The AMS seal is for approved Mets only, But membership is open to all
      weather enthusiasts as far as I can tell.

      I was ready to join, until after the $54 membership, I saw that I was
      required to select a minimum of $150 worth of publications. and it was
      not clear whether those were one time fees or yearly fees.

  16. I am concerned that the HRRR is showing some really strong convection
    over most of SNE tomorrow mid-day.

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018073112/031/refcmp.us_ne.png

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018073112/031/srh01.us_ne.png

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018073112/032/refcmp.us_ne.png

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018073112/032/srh01.us_ne.png

    This would strongly suggest that a tornado or 2 is not out of the question.

        1. Correct. However, this is one mode. others are showing NOTHING.

          This is what drives me nuts about the weather. There
          is NEVER any certainty.

  17. NEXT HRRR run that will go out 36 hours would be the 18Z run. I look forward to that.

    On the 12Z run, the soundings are not available yet.

  18. SPC has western parts of MA and CT in marginal risk. There will be an update around 1:30pm today.

  19. SREF did move the small tornado risk eastward with the latest run that came out about an hour ago to the Springfield, MA Hartford, CT areas.

  22. I’ll be interested to see whether the NAM or HRRR has a better forecast for tomorrow. Most of the other hi-res guidance looks closer to the NAM, so the HRRR is kind of on its own with the more aggressive convective forecast. A good test of the extended hours feature of the new HRRR.

  24. Bte,

    By extrapolating the 0Z run, The SPC HREF model also hints at convection in these parts for tomorrow. Waiting for the 12Z run to complete.

    This model only runs at 12Z and 0Z.

  25. I haven’t paid much intention how good the HREF is in regards to severe weather.
    The SREF to me does a good job at picking up on areas where a tornadic thunderstorm is possible.

  26. 12Z GFS is now showing convection and also showing a tornado threat for inland
    areas on the soundings. All for tomorrow.

  27. The GFS has been showing this solution for tomorrow consistently since Saturday. Run after run its been there and not one of those situations its there one run gone on the next.

  28. Years ago when I was a Geography major at Framingham State, I received a special achievement award with a “Certificate of Achievement” along with a free membership for the first year to AAG (Association of American Geographers) which included publications every month containing various articles by distinguished geographers, planners, etc. Those articles were booooring to say the least. I don’t recall having to pay for the publications but I did have to pay annual membership. I forget how much but I decided it wasn’t worth it anymore and dropped it after a few years. Maybe my old professors got a kick out of those articles but the language was way over my head as I was practically a straight “A”student at the time.

    JPD I suggest not to bother with joining AMS until you win the lottery. I bet their publications would put TK to sleep. 😉

  30. From Ryan Hanrahan
    There’s definitely a risk for severe storms tomorrow evening. The question to me is how widespread the coverage will be without much forcing. That said, given the amount of shear and instability anything that forms could be nasty.

  31. I thought the marginal risk would have been expanded a little further east to Springfield area with some of the data is showing. Curious what the new runs of the SREF and HREF show.

      1. thank you guys for all the wonderful links. interesting for sure. Jp dave is there anyway we can tell if storms tomorrow will contain hail? kinda like looking st probabilities wise. in other words, we always post data to see the possibility of a tornado just like the link above, I was wondering if there is another Parameter but instead of tornado,its for hail. I hope my question isnt too confusing

        1. Kane I believe the it will be too warm aloft for hail. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and somewhere I believe in the northeast tomorrow there will be the risk of a weak tornado.

  32. I don’t know how good that forecast model is but looking at the values it is showing a potential which needs to be watched. Go back to what Ryan said in his tweet anything that does form could be nasty. Looking at that screams nasty potential.

  33. Quick peak at latest SREF
    2pm northwest CT southwest Berkshire county in MA part of Hudson River Valley in NY in slight tornado risk area.
    5pm same areas but the risk area goes to Springfield, MA area central western CT southwestern parts of VT and Albany, NY area
    It skipped over 8pm but at 11pm risk area Berkshires, northwest CT extending back into central and eastern PA.

  36. What is interesting is SREF keeping some area of SNE in the slight tornado risk area from 2pm Wed to 2am Thurs.

  37. 12Z 15km RRW WRF Vortex Generation Parameter. (VGP) for 11PM tomorrow night.

    https://imgur.com/a/G4iu8pB

    Vorticity Generation Parameter (m/s**2)
    The VGP Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m/s**2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

  38. 18Z NAM is devoid of convection ALL day tomorrow well into tomorrow night
    and thursday AM.

  40. So far to me it Looks like CASINO WEATHER!!!

    What the hell does that mean? Easy, it means it’s a CRAP SHOOT!!!

    1. Could be convection, then again there might NOT be any and IF there is
      it could be nasty and severe possibly with a tornado thrown in Or NOT.

  41. Yo!

    FWIW I am an AMS member.

    In more important topics, convection tomorrow will not be widespread, but IF it happens it has the potential to be very strong to severe. I happen to have tomorrow set aside as a potential chase day after an early morning drive to take some distant suburban photos and take myself to a diner for breakfast. My only other plans come in the evening, which is Hampton Beach, after the threat is pretty much over. I’ll review short range guidance a bit later and opine again.

    1. TK, I thought that you might be.

      A serious question….would it be worth my becoming a member?

      Thanks

      btw, I like you BIG IF

      That seems to be key around here.

      Kind of like CASINO WEATHER, isn’t it????

      Speaking of Casino, anything shaking at the Casino Ballroom at Hampton Beach?

      2. Diner & Dinner are only one ‘n’ apart so it’s understandable.

        I’m thinking Agawam Diner in Rowley MA for a mid morning stop tomorrow.

  42. Well, KC & The Sunshine Band as well as The Beach Boys will be making visits soon there.

    And yes, Casino weather indeed!

    As for becoming an AMS member yourself? Don’t waste the fee.

    3. saw beach boys way back when at the old boston garden. 1965
      saw KC in Vegas about 10-12 years ago .

    4. I saw KC at the casino great show . If it’s not this weekend It’s next that they are playing there again. Gin blossoms played there last Tuesday night .

  43. I have a positive (big surprise) for Back to school supplies being on sale. Many food pantries, etc. are asking for donations of school supplies for kids who cannot afford them. Add a Halloween decoration in and you will make a child smile

          1. Christmas is never far from my mind. But I am never in a hurry for it to arrive. I like each day for what it is.

            With three kids and their three significant others and six grandkids, if I don’t do some ahead of time, I’d be too busy to enjoy the season.

  45. the back to school crap should not happened until 2 weeks before September and schools should not start until September

    1. I agree re starting after Labor Day. As far as back to school supplies. I purchased a bunch yesterday to donate. If an individual doesn’t want to see it, ignore it. That is an individual responsibility. Just my opinion.

  47. Looking back to those 12z (and 18z) runs yesterday, the 3km NAM is going to score a resounding victory over the extended range HRRR. The HRRR has caught on now to the less aggressive convection forecast, but this doesn’t inspire much confidence in its forecasts past 18 hours.

  48. Latest SREF Significant tornado ingredients chart

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

    significant tornado parameter

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f021.gif

    SPC

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f021.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1533120033348

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif?1533120047631

  49. From what I can see is the following;

    The biggest threat appears to be from Central Ma westward into NY with the best chance of convection and the greater threat of a tornado.

    It looks like convection may be hard to come by in eastern sections, however, IF a storm were to develop, then there would be a tornado threat even in eastern sections.

    So, we’ll have to see how it shakes out.

    OH, btw, it would not surprise me if a tornado watch were issued. It may be close and probably not, but it could be. We shall see. watch or not, I’m guessing there
    will be one or more tornadoes somewhere from worcester to western ma and Ct to ny state. We shall see.

  51. Thanks Dave. Should be interesting in my area. T-storms have seemed to hold together better in my area when they come through with warm fronts as opposed to cold fronts. I’m not sure if it is a trajectory thing, but I swear they lose their punch when they go over the Wachusett Mountain area which would be on a cold front.

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