Wednesday Forecast

107 Comments

8:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)
The muggies are returning and will be brought in full force by a passing warm front today. The passage of this front may also trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, and although the storm risk itself is not that high, any that do form have the potential to be severe, so something we’ll have to watch. The main threat window should be 2PM-6PM across the region and favor areas west and north of Boston. Thursday-Saturday it’s the classic Bermuda High setup with warm to hot weather and high humidity, and a daily risk of showers/storms, but no all-day rain, just threats that favor afternoons and evenings, but this risk will increase on Saturday as a frontal boundary is moving in. This front may take the edge of the humidity but will allow it to be a little hotter by Sunday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers late morning to early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon favoring areas west and north of Boston. Any thunderstorms can be severe, but the risk is very low in any given location. Increasingly humid. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light S to SE, shifting to SW late.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs in the 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)
Heat and humidity strongest early in the period then at least the heat eases a little as the ridge loses some of its grip, but this may mean more showers/thunderstorms as well.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)
Ridge is a bit more to the east and trough a little closer to the region early in the period with a better shower/thunderstorm risk, then ridge comes back west yet again with additional heat and humidity middle and end of this period.

107 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. Did you see my post on the previous discussion by any chance? I’m wondering how accurate I am with my thought process? Just an observation I’ve had since moving to the area a few years ago.

    1. We think alike I asked Pete once why storms often seemed to stop or lessen west of framingham…I seen to recall he did think terrain had a hand in it but he mentioned other factors were also involved. It was too long ago for me to remember details so will enjoy TKs response. Great question

      1. Thanks TK. Yeah I’m very curious and I know that TK and others will have a perfect explanation for it.

  5. 11z hrrr shows current convection well and shows it translating eastward to just north of boston, missing boston completely.

  6. Thanks TK.
    Latest SREF starting to run now and the SPC will be updating today’s outlook shortly.

  8. Emily…who was so amazing helping when a tornado was headed for my sister in laws a while back and a storm chaser friend of TKs….gave me some suggestions re weather apps. I’m loving MyRadar Pro. I just received a message for possible severe weather in my area today. I can set up alarms for more than just tornadoes which would have helped last week. And it has a do not disturb feature if you want it.

    1. Em & I were chatting on FB this morning about the storm risk today and possible chasing. We may end up in the same place, IF there is something worth chasing. We also talked about cats and dogs, you know, important things!

      She’s become a good friend and has an amazing future. And she’s wasting no time living her dream, having already spent 2 full chase seasons in the Plains.

  10. Quick peak at SREF
    5pm an area with 15% for the interior of MA while other areas in slight risk area. at 2pm that 15% area is over my area

  13. This still continues to be an isolated thunderstorm threat and nothing widespread. With that said there are communities in SNE at risk for a nasty storm as we saw last week with the EF1 tornado in Douglas and Uxbridge.

  14. Here is a good reason from this tweet from Ryan Hanrahan why there is that risk of an isolated tornado somewhere in SNE today.
    Weak low over SE NY and attendant warm front that cuts through Connecticut will be the focus of severe storms today. Low level shear is maximized along this front.

      1. Right and WELL to our West.
        Just look at the map and you can see where
        the axis of action will be.

        Anything East of there will be isolated, BUT “should” one develop,
        it would be a discrete super cell and you know what that
        can mean.

    1. Those dew points are NASTY!!!!

      Btw, not sure you will see severe with those storms North
      of the Warm Front. I think any severe, with or without rotation, will
      be in the Warm Sector as the Short Wave approaches and provides the lift.

      1. Ok, thanks JpDave !! Severe weather, where the storms form, etc is a part of weather I’m not very knowledgeable in and have a lot to learn ! I enjoyed all the info and discussion you and JJ were having yesterday about today !!!!

  20. Awesome discussion and great photo from above, Tom.

    it is 78 in Sutton with a 72 DP – the air is thick. Even with the AC running, the air inside the house feels wet. That may, however, have something to do with my keeping windows open until late last night and my bedroom open all night.

    We have a heavy cloud cover. Doesn’t that diminish the chance of severe storms??

    The sun tried to pop out without success about 15 minutes ago and it was HOT.

      1. Ahhh – thank you, JPD. Maybe I can actually store that somewhere in my head where I will be able to recall and remember it 🙂

  23. Now getting some convection in Eastern CT. Not big stuff, but something.
    if those stay or intensify, they would traverse NE and pass a little to the West
    of the Boston Area. Wondering if there will be something in Eastern sections
    after all. Will continue to watch.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25552308&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  24. Had some mist and a brief shower in eastern Marshfield.

    Nothing in western Marshfield, Pembroke and now here in Hanover.

    Low clouds with a freshening SE breeze. More humid, but a bit cooler than earlier when we had some sun.

  25. Latest from Norton NWS office:

    Deep layer shear of 40+ knots exists along with the potential
    for 0-1 km helicity to reach or exceed 200 units.
    Therefore…not only is there the threat for localized wind
    damage the low probability for a tornado does exist with low
    LCL/s and 70+ dewpoints.

    To sum up…this looks like one of these situations where we
    may luck out and just have some showers and a few embedded
    thunderstorms. However…the low risk exists for a very
    localized area to experience significant wind damage. A special
    weather statement was issued earlier this morning just to raise
    awareness of this possibility.

  26. Scott77, I saw your comment about Mt. Wachusett and how it affects storms out here in Central MA. I grew up and live in the area and always hear people say that it is Mt. Wachusett that causes storms to dissipate as they come through central Worcester county.

    I myself have never bought that idea. Mt. Wachusett is at 2,000′ of elevation. Mt. Watatic in Ashburnham is around 1,800′. The centers of Barre and Petersham are around 800-1000′. Worcester airport is 1,000′. So in terms of the general surroundings, Wachusett is only about 1,000′ higher. On a severe thunderstorm towering well above 15-20,000′, I can only imagine that there is minimal interference from the mountain, if any.

    From a variety of sources over the years, what I have picked up is that this area is often times the northern and western extent of the marine influence from RI/CT and MassBay. I think it is more of a coincidence of geography, rather than the mountain, that lends to the idea of the mountain splitting strong storms and/or weakening them.

    And the mountain hasn’t protected Princeton and Sterling from experiencing tornadoes in the past 25-years. Though from watching plenty of radar it definitely seems that storms run into Wachusett and fall apart immediately after.

    With that said, I’m no expert by any stretch of the imagination, and my theories could be totally wrong!

    1. any geological feature can create a massive difference when it comes to weather/typical climate. The areas west of WAWA (Gardner and Templeton areas have tornado spin ups all the time especially on the exit on rt 2 gardner, you sometimes see spin ups forming right at the exit.

    1. Really dumb question. In my mind marginal is more than slight. What is in the mind of the NWS when they make these predictions? Thank you.

      1. I don’t think it’s a dumb question, Vicki. I have often wondered about that too. Interesting to see what responses will be.

  30. Marginal is the border between there being no risk and slight risk.

    Slight risk is indeed risk, albeit very minor.

    2. Thank you, TK. Greatly appreciated and I’m NOT shooting the messenger

      It doesn’t make any sense to me and I would think difficult for the average person. Thank you, Marjie, you may be correct that it isn’t a dumb question after all.

      Marginal definition: relating to or situated at the edge or margin of something.
      Slight definition: small in degree; inconsiderable.

      There was a discussion on FB yesterday about the average person understanding and this is an instance where it is just not clear – at least to me.

  31. Sun has been out where I am for about half hour now. There was downpour around 11:30 this morning.

  33. Just checked no special weather statement on that storm but the first one that has gotten attention.

  35. According to special weather statement issued 50 mph winds torrential rain with this storm moving northeast at 20mph so that is a good thing the storm is not sitting over one area.

  36. From Eric Fisher. Will see if any more storms show signs of rotation like the one on the CT/NY Boarder.
    A shear/helicity bullseye from the CT River -> west is where the greatest risk of a tornado would be this afternoon

  37. Yes. It’s not widespread but something I’m keeping an eye on. So far only one storm has shown signs of rotation.

  39. NWS out of Upton, NY has not issued a warning on this storm yet. It has been showing signs of rotation at times for the past hour.

  40. Ryan Hanrahan just tweeted in Ridgefield, CT reports of trees and utilities poles down with this storm.

  43. We know in Ridgefield, CT according to tweet from Ryan Hanrahan it did produce some damage in with utility poles and trees down.

  44. JPDave if I was in the path of this storm I would be treating it like a tornado warning and taking the per cautions needed.

  45. My early guess with the damage on the CT storm would be straightline winds. It certainly has rotation as well, but maybe not quite tight enough for a tornado. Still, a storm like that is exactly what we were looking for out there.

  46. Exactly isolated thunderstorms was the potential today and if you get one it could be nasty and were seeing this now in parts of Fairfield county in CT.

  47. Notice in the full text on that severe t-storm warning, at the bottom it says “tornado possible” when listing the storm attributes. This is text from the warning:

    TORNADO…POSSIBLE
    HAIL…<.75IN
    WIND…60MPH

    This is one of those "enhanced" severe t-storm warnings which indicates a low risk for a tornado. It used to be that if this were the case, it would be mentioned in plain language in the main body of the warning. Something to the effect of "this storm has exhibited some weak rotation… while not immediately likely a tornado may form." Now it's coded in with those attributes at the bottom. I hate it, but NWS is adamant about it. So if you see that coding at the bottom of the warning, I would say treat it similar to a tornado warning.

    2. It can say that all it wants but they blew it last week and I have little faith in them at this point – especially with that little message to cover their proverbial you know whats. Little disclaimers are a waste of time.

      Can you tell I am still really irritated with NWS 😈

    3. The warning for the storms that spawned the two tornadoes last week had the same language, WxW. IMO if a tornado is on the ground for 4.4 miles the NWS should really ought to tornado warn the area.

      1. I hate to judge because I know from interning there last summer that it’s really hard to make these calls in real time. For instance, last summer there were a couple times where they were just about ready to pull the trigger on a tornado warning but held off. Those calls turned out to be right in the sense that there were no tornadoes. It wouldn’t have been “wrong” to issue them per se, but it would’ve created what’s termed as a “false alarm”.

        Having said all that….. from looking back on it, which I’ve been able to do in detail now, the tornado signature for the Douglas/Uxbridge storm looked about as clear as they come around here, and was also fairly long in duration. While the severe warning was better than nothing, I think there was ample evidence to go with a tornado warning, certainly by the time the tornado touched down a second time in Uxbridge. I say better safe than sorry. There’s not much danger around here in terms of creating a “cry wolf” problem with tornado warnings. They’re always going to be few and far between.

        1. Thank you, WxWatcher. Your view always resonates with me.

          I suspect you know I will rarely criticize knowing that I am not aware of all of the ins and outs of a job. But I also am a fan of erring on the side of caution. Many people have smart phone warning abilities. But they only warn for tornado. There was no indication at all last week that something was happening Thunder at least can wake people, but there wasn’t any. The NWS was extremely lucky, but not as lucky as those on the ground. In Uxbridge alone, the tornado literally went between a street of homes and a very long line of high power lines. Your comment that the was ample evidence makes me incredibly angry. And that NWS is also doubling down on placing an obscure comment at the bottom of warning tells me they know exactly what they are doing and would use it as an “out.”

          You saw the signs early in the day. There are times OS sees rotation (Revere is a perfect example but there are others) a fair amount of time before the NWS warns the storm. IMO it just is not acceptable.

  48. I just noticed that because looking at the velocities on the storm I was looking in the text for something like while not immediately likely a tornado may form. I scrolled down and saw tornado possible.

  49. I would keep an eye on Tuesday or Wednesday next week for a more widespread and more traditional severe weather outbreak in the Northeast. Looks like there will be a fairly sharp cold front with upper level support crashing into what will be a hot/humid air mass. Timing of the front will determine who has the best shot of severe storms, and when.

  51. The storm in Fairfield County no longer being warned but I am sure were going to see some damage photos coming in and as JPDave mentioned could there have been a very weak tornado touched down briefly when the rotation tightened up.

  52. Looks like the big bangers are losing their punch and anything else out
    there is rather innocuous. Can we declare all clear yet?

  53. We’re in the process of largely dodging the bullet around here with minor exceptions.

    2. I had a niggly feeling that would be the case. Based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

      When rhe bullet involves tornadoes or sever weather I enjoy the buildup but am fine if it poofs.

  55. It took til 6pm, but Albany, NY got to 80F.

    They have a streak going of 20 something + days with highs of 80F or above.

    They either broke or have broken the streak.

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