Thursday Forecast

158 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)
Bermuda High controls the weather and will be the driving force for some time, however there will be a front from the west that does make it through the region during the weekend. After 2 days of air mass type isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday, activity may increase with this front Saturday and then some drier, but hotter air will be here for Sunday and Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 78-87, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY & MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)
Ridge slips back to the east and allows more Midwest trough to slide into the Northeast, and while the heat eases the humidity tries to stay in place, and couple fronts interacting with it will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)
Our friendly Atlantic ridge comes back west, humidity generally stays, showers/storms become more isolated, and heat increases again.

158 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. For the most part yes. This fits the pattern outlined previously in the medium to long range thoughts. Looks like it is all going to verify.

    1. Yikes. Warmer than here. My station says heat indices 81 (temp 78, dp 73)

      Thinking about Mrs. OS and Philip and Joshua and others today and on what appears to be many days going forward. Tough summer for you all, that’s for sure.

      1. you don’t know the 1/2 of it. The older she gets, the worse it is. Brutal.
        This weather blows!!

          1. JPD do you have ceiling fans? Don’t know why I didn’t ask before. They are chump change and easy to install if you already have a ceiling light really seem to help me. They are definitely several steps above regular fans.

        2. I’m so sorry. I’ve even had some struggles with the humidity and am also blaming getting older. I have never had energy when it is HHH (and there is a haze today although it may be burning off how) but it never made me feel ill.

        3. Sorry to hear old salty . What about surprising her with a weekend get away a hotel with a nice restaurant, pool & coffee shop you wouldn’t need to leave . I like the seaport .

          1. Nice thought John, but she feels too ill to even get ready to do something like that. I already offered
            getting a motel down the Cape for a week or so.

            What compound her situation is that she is not healthy to begin with. Add heat and humidity and
            it becomes a hopeless situation. As soon as it dries out she does oh so much better.

      2. Second those thoughts Vicki. Last night was one of the warmest nights of the summer. It must have been tough without A/C.

        I run the hold temp about 73F at night and most nights, the house temp holds at 73F and the A/C shuts off for a while. Not last night, anytime I woke up, it was humming away.

        1. We run the temp at 76/77 during the day because we cannot get it lower so no sense in turning the termostat down. On the hottest days during that week, the house temp was generally 82-83. The house is on top of a hill with absolutely no shade. Tis a hot house – literally.

          1. We don’t have central AC here just in the bedrooms. Our backyard is fairly shaded except between 10am and 3pm when it gets full sun and the horse flies and deer flies become a terror. The backyard is in a hollow while the house is on a rise up about 25 ft higher or so and gets full sun much longer. Across the street (to the SW) is a line of trees that has a tendency to block most winds that are below 15 mph. Hoping today’s winds pick up a bit.

            1. Just catching up as I was out and about for a bit. Keith, you and I compared in-house temps that week when temps were over 90 and your house without ac was about the same as mine with.

              1. Yes and the only difference I see now is that temps are somewhat lower and there is a better breeze out there than we had during that heat wave.

  5. As I stand in line at the slowest post office in the country, sweat beads drip onto my phone.

    lowest temp got in the house, 79.

    U hate to see my electrib bill with 3 acs crankibg

    1. 🙁 🙁

      That stinks.

      With the humidity being as tough to take as the heat, have you considered a dehumidifier ? Back in March when water got our basement, we ran one and I was amazed st how much moisture they can remove from the air. I had to dump huge bin fills of water every day or 2.

      1. Tom, I second a dehumidifier. We empty our basement humidifier twice a day in summer. It doesn’t feel humid down there since it is naturally cooled by the ground but it sure is.

    2. We are heading to solar for the house. A neighbor had panels installed the other day. My electric bill is never lower than 300 and is right around 500 in summer. It is just crazy. Thank heavens my heating bill offsets it.

      1. I would love to go solar but just so much mixed information on it . We have friends in the real estate business & they say don’t do IT especially if you plan to sell one day . We have electric bills running high every month .

        1. Basically, people like a house that offers what they want and solar panels won’t change that any more than a pool does. More people are going solar and more people are looking for it. If you tell me it will save $6000/year, I’m all in.

  6. Thanks TK
    Someone has to spell check this. From NWS Boston/Norton for today
    Main threat with any storm will be string, gusty winds and heavy rainfall

  7. I’ll be on the lookout later today for those String gusty winds as my area may have a locally strong or severe storm.

    1. Right and I’m Santa Claus.

      Next rain chance for Boston is probably Saturday as I don’t expect a drop
      here until then. If any rain comes, it will be an unexpected bonus.

  9. So, it appears yesterday’s rotating storm in SW CT did NOT drop a tornado.
    Any word at all?

    In any case, that one sure was close. I wonder if there was a funnel cloud or if anyone confirmed a rotating wall cloud. That rotation was pretty tight yesterday for a brief time, even though some rotation was evident for a long time.

    1. Nice photo. Certainly plenty of damage.
      That storm looked Nasty for sure.

      let’s see IF anything pops today. If it does, it will once again be out that way.

  11. You should be fine where you are. I’ll will be watching the radar later this afternoon into the evening. Same deal is yesterday nothing widespread but those you see a storm it could be a strong to severe storm.

  12. Thanks, TK, and good morning, everyone!
    Warm today, but not as hot as it was back in 1975.

    Yikes, I am sounding like a grandfather!! 🙂

    Enjoy the day!

  13. SREF for the record picking up on a low tornado risk today for northwest CT and Berkshires later today. On Cod site clicking on 12z NAM showing in potential hazard weak tornado for my area.

  14. Now for sure I will be watching to see what develops for my area. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    One thing to note is all the dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. While that can be a detriment to storm development (dry air entrainment can choke off updrafts) it can also yield a damaging wind threat with higher downdraft CAPE.

  15. Logan at 10am ….. 87, dp 70. Heat index : 92F.

    In marshfield anyway, the low clouds have given way to nearly full sun.

  16. I believe, due to extreme southeast Mass missing nearly all the July rain, resulting in dry ground ….. that’s it’s resulted in daytime temps running 2-3F warmer than a good portion of the rest of the region. I’ve been noticing this for days now. Plymouth, Taunton, Marshfield ….. southeast mass is parched and on sunny days, nearly all of the sun’s energy is going into heating, very little needed for evaporation.

  17. I wonder if Eric Fisher and Barry Burbank have different viewpoints with regards to climate change.

    Eric’s twitter feed lately seems to be full of re-tweets regarding heat and records this July from all over the northern hemisphere.

    Barry this morning retweeted Joe Bistardi, whose tweet yesterday gave some data on July temps and had an opinion regarding the media and their reporting of July’s temperatures.

    1. They have some differences in opinion but in general agree that humans are influencing the climate and that we are making it warmer, I have talked to both of them about climate change to see where they stood on it. Eric looks more global, while Barry looks more local.

      2. Thanks, Matt. I had that same impression from both reading their comments and listening to them. I know both believe the seasons have shifted.

  18. I’m not putting much stock into it, but the 12z 3km NAM has a very interesting severe weather setup for Saturday. Classic triple point tornado threat with a meso-low. Again, not something I’m too concerned about right now, but it’s an incredibly favorable environment as modeled by that particular run.

    1. Our neighborhood has a barbeque scheduled for Saturday. I guess we’re going to miss the better weekend day this go around. We’ve been pretty lucky with good weather the last few years.

  19. At 11am, many heat indices running btwn 95 and 99F in SE Mass.

    Time to expand the heat advisories perhaps ??

  21. Logan : 92F, dp : 68. Heat index : 96F

    Temps to the south and east, off Cape are 90 to 93F, but with dps 71-76, heat indices are running at 99 to 100F.

  22. Interesting that the SREF has ZIPPO as a tornado threat on Saturday.
    ZILCH, NADA!

    GFS see nothing as well.

  23. Thank you, TK!

    What to do in a heatwave, and what not to do:

    http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180801-what-you-should-and-shouldnt-do-in-a-heatwave

    My Indian and Indonesian friends have told me that cold drinks are not recommended in hot and humid weather. Rather, lukewarm tea or water. I must say I haven’t followed their advice. I like a cold drink when it’s hot. I am not a fan of cold drinks during the fall, winter, or spring. But when it’s hot I go for a cold drink.

    1. I am NOT NOT NOT NOT drinking something warm or luke warm when
      it is hot! Are they serious??? No freakin way.

    1. Damn, that jet engine is blowing on the sensor again!!

      Real temperature 93.

      Btw, I was outside and there is one consolation today:
      There is a nice ventilating stiff breeze.

  27. It will be interesting to see if areas southeast of a Boston to Provjdence line get any rain Saturday.

    If this area doesn’t, temps will overachieve again Sunday thru Wednesday by a couple degrees in interior southeast Mass. Same tomorrow if it’s sunny like today.

    2 different small scale temp projections going right now. One for areas north and west of Boston and especially 495 that had a surplus of rain in July. The second area is southeast of a Boston to Providence line which saw much, much less rain.

    1. Going to stay out there. Not coming here. Not even close.
      BTW, SPC REMOVED the 2% tornado threat for the Mariginal risk zone
      roughly in the area of those echoes.

      1. Makes sense, I think.

        Besides Saturday, I think WxWatcher also mentioned to watch next Tuesday and Wednesday and the 12z Euro at 144 hrs has a decent summertime low going up the st Lawrence river with it hot and humid in New England.

  29. Once again isolated strong severe storms with strong wind gusts main threat. I’ll be watching the radar to see if anything pops in my area later.
    No rain Saturday I got tickets to see the Yankees double a team play against the Hartford Yard Goats.

    1. We’ll hope for a Yankees double A victory in exchange for a Red Sox MLB victory Saturday. Does that work for you ? 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. LOL!!!
        Its going to be a fun weekend at Fenway. Yankees dodge a bullet by not having to face Sale. I think for the Yankees to keep hopes of winning AL East they have to come out with a split to keep it a 5.5 games behind 4 in the loss column as the Yankees have more games to play than the Red Sox. With that said they got to win those games.

        1. Agreed !

          Interesting series. If Yankees have lead in any game after 5 innings, it may be game over because they can go Robertson, Britton, Bettances, Chapman.

          On the other hand, they come without Judge and Sanchez, so they may struggle to get a lead.

          I don’t think either team sweeps, I think it will end up 2-2 or 3-1.

          1. I think its is a split this weekend. There are some sports radio host on WFAN in NY think the Yankees will take 3 out of 4. I am not that optimistic.

  33. A couple special weather statements with those storms. I am looking at the one entering Danbury area moving northeast. Currently pea size hail 40 mph winds gusts with that storm.

  34. If I’m interpreting correctly, the 12z Euro may offer some hope for a heat and humidity reprieve next weekend. (8/11 and 8/12). Maybe low to mid 80s with an opportunity for much lower humidity.

    It may be followed by more heat as it looks like new warmth is building to our west.

  35. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan for Saturday.
    Next severe weather chance is going to come Saturday morning. Tons of low level moisture and a strengthening low level jet which should increase wind shear.

          1. Why thank you – for Haley or Elsa 😉 Or is that Elsa and I get 20 !!!

            I actually just watched the original Parent Trap with the grandkids. Although, I would have recognized her regardless.

            1. I had to take a bus to Milford to
              watch that movie when it first came out.
              When it was over, stayed put and watched
              the next showing of the film (yes could do that back in the day).

  37. The one to the south of you mentioned JPDave has the severe thunderstorm warning.
    I am hearing rumbles of thunder in the distance right now with the storm near Waterbury.

  39. The MyRadar pro I mentioned yesterday also has areas of marginal and slight and general thunder outlined on the map. I have to read it in conjunction with RadarScope because I’m not quite used to it but I can’t imagine anyone here having to do that.

  40. TK, did you say “friendly Atlantic ridge”?

    I know it’s friendly to some, but not to others. Friendly to me would be a good old-fashioned Montreal express (my Dad used to call it that).

    Yesterday was a reprieve of sorts. Today it’s searing heat with building humidity.

    And no, JP Dave I’m not sipping lukewarm or hot teas as is suggested in that article. I do have a hot tea or coffee to start the day, but that’s the extent of my hot liquid intake.

  41. Joshua, I am glad you mentioned the article as I did not see it. I will read now. The only time I’ll drink beer is on a really hot day but I rarely finish more than half.

  42. So, after digesting the 12Z Euro and now the 18Z NAM and 18Z 3KM NAM, it looks
    to me as if any threat on Saturday will be more late Saturday to possibly overnight
    Saturday (timing differences among models) AND it looks like it would be one
    of these HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE situation (HSLC).

    Crap shoot between nothing but synoptic rain and a full blown tornado.

    AND risk seems to be More Southeast of Boston, “perhaps” reaching up to just
    about Boston, but the main risk along the South Coast. See below

    Radar

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018080218/054/refcmp.us_ne.png

    0-1KM helicity

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018080218/054/srh01.us_ne.png

    Significant tornado ingredients

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018080218/054/stp.us_ne.png

    Because this is an HSLC environment, the risk could extend up to Boston.

  45. Vicki I had one storm around 4pm little gust of wind heavy rain and some rumbles.
    Its now raining again but not very hard

  47. Did not think MA would see any severe thunderstorm warnings today.
    New severe thunderstorm warning up for southern Worcester and south central Middlesex counties until 6:15pm

  48. My favorite new radar app just sent me an audible warning when the thunderstorm warning went up around me. I love love this.

    Am Sitting on front step watching clouds build having just returned from Uxbridge where we did hear thunder to the west. Looks to be falling apart though 🙁

      1. The clouds were awesome on my way home from Quincy around 7. Half the sky was clear and the other half dark with some amazing clouds. Not a drop of rain here and still managed our nightly walk.

    2. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not actually a severe storm – if you’ve missed it I’m kind of a woos!

  55. There are special weather statements up for your area with winds in excess of 40mph which is below severe criteria.

  56. Nine year old grand texted lots of thunder and lightning in Uxbridge. She turned off the lights to see the Lightning better. Love this little munchkin

    1. Seriously? I mean I’m fascinated by thunderstorms like anybody else. They are the most fascinating weather we have anywhere imo, but here in New England they aren’t so fascinating. I don’t mean that in a bad way.

    1. Sky was awesome here. Not even enough rain to register. I am seeing blue now in between the black clouds.

      1. It looks to still be quite together as it nears Boston. I think it is just north of JP but I am not sure of JPDs exact location

  60. Dark sky gone. Just grey clouds and now we get thunder. Well….better than none

    Mama Mia…all ok up your way?

      1. Haha. Right on my 3 yo birthday party! Hahah. Beggers can’t be choosers. They will just have To get wet on the jumpy house.

  62. TK do you think there is an opportunity for severe weather Saturday as Ryan Hanrahan was tweeting earlier sayin with a strong level jet could increase wind shear?

      1. Thank you. I will say happy birthday. Rilyn Mac is a deceptive name. She is a little girl but my youngest and her husband were determined she’d have Mac for a middle name. Everyone just calls her Rilyn but I love the sound of Mac so use it 🙂

          1. Of course it isn’t your bad. Happy Birthday is happy birthday and it was special of you to reply. Thank you

  68. Another very warm overnight ….. some morning low temps ….

    Logan : 78
    Providence : 76
    Plymouth : 77
    Taunton : 77
    Norwood, MA : 79

  69. Yesterday, we achieved low to mid 90s with 850 mb temps of 15c in western New England to 18c in eastern New England.

    The 00z Euro’s 850mb temps look even a bit warmer to me for Monday and Tuesday with wsw flow. I wouldn’t be surprised by air temps of 95 to 98F with dp’s still high.

    Today, the tv concensus seems to be 90F. Sfc wind seems a bit more southerly than yesterday, but I’d still favor 1-2F above guidance. Perhaps 92 to 93F ????

  70. My wunder says today is forecast to be MUCH cooler than yesterday….I thought it was supposed to be about same

  71. Wishing both Rainshine and JP Dave a very happy birthday….also my youngest grand, Rilyn Mac. Today seems to be a popular birth day.

  73. We didn’t get much in re: to storms yesterday here in Sudbury. Around 5 or 6 or so, it did get rather dark. Kind of weird. Blue sky and a blanket of cloud cover moving in. Clouds were dark but not as dark as in Vicki’s amazing photo yesterday. We got a small gust of wind and a brief downpour. That was it. Admittedly, the sky itself was beautiful. Every season has its own special beauty to it but many times I find the summer sky is the most picturesque – particularly this summer. Wondering if it’s the humidity we have been having – all the tropical air coming up the coast.

  74. BTW, I changed my name from rainshine to Marjie. Nonetheless, I have seen many showers this summer with the sun brightly out – and wanted to write as I have for the past few yrs. – we’re having rainshine! In any case, I have changed my name.

    1. For your area, probably the window of 2PM-8PM is most likely for rain. Doesn’t mean rain for 6 hours, but that’s when it’s most likely to take place during.

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