Saturday Forecast

91 Comments

12:51PM

COMMENTARY
Apology for the late regular update. Got caught up in following the band of rain/thunderstorms that included a couple tornado warnings. Significant damage occurred in Webster MA but it is unclear yet whether this was caused by a tornado, microburst, or straight-line winds. The NWS will investigate and issue a report on it. The area was under a tornado warning at the time but that is no guarantee that a tornado actually touched down. It was occurring in an area of heavy rain and very poor visibility so there was likely no human sighting of an actual tornado on the ground. The NWS will investigate the damage.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)
The “fun” of the morning is generally over with but the band of rain and some downpours continues to press eastward through eastern MA and southeastern NH and there are still some areas of flooding being reported. As this area moves away today the atmosphere remains unstable, and with a front still yet to come through, other showers and storms will form, and though they may not be as widespread as this morning’s activity, some of them can be rather strong. This threat goes on until around sunset before things settle down tonight, and then high pressure moves in and it’s all about the feel of summer. Although the humidity will drop a little bit for Sunday and Monday, you won’t feel much of a difference as it will heat up. Humidity comes back up Tuesday as the heat continues, and then when we get to Wednesday we may be looking at some interesting weather as showers/storms appear likely as a front moves into the hot and humid air mass. Forecast details…
THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Rain and possible thunder east coastal MA and NH through Cape Cod gradually diminishing but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible anywhere else and can develop rather quickly. Very humid. Highs 75-83. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusty at times, also becoming variable at times.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a lingering shower possible early. Clearing but with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind light variable becoming W up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-70. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-88 south-facing shores, 89-96 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows from the middle 60s to middle 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s, coolest south-facing shores.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Lows from the middle 60s to middle 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible August 9, 11, and 12, otherwise mainly dry weather and temperatures ending up above normal with more building heat as the dominant high pressure ridge, which briefly lets go of the area, makes a comeback mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)
Very warm to hot pattern with mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms at times as the Bermuda High remains dominant but some heat from the middle of the US also gets transported eastward.

91 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.
    It sounds like from reading your blog that Wednesday is the next day to watch out for thunderstorms.

  3. From NWS Boston/Norton
    [CONFIRMED TORNADO] Webster, MA; however continuing to survey the damage, will take quite sometime to determine strength, path-length, etc

  4. From the SPC

    …Southeast New England this afternoon…
    A midlevel trough is moving eastward from NY to western New England
    as of midday, with a plume of tropical moisture and ascent to its
    east across southeast New England. There is some enhancement to
    low-midlevel flow per the VWPs from OKX and BOX, but low-level shear
    is not particularly strong. Given the moist profiles and weak
    buoyancy, there will continue to be a threat for weakly rotating
    storms within the larger rain area, with an attendant threat for a
    brief/weak tornado or damaging gusts.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif?1533403445657

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif?1533403442577

  5. Thanks TK !

    https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrE19aP4mVbs2YAXUBx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTByNXQ0NThjBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM1BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–/RV=2/RE=1533432591/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.wunderground.com%2fweather-radar%2funited-states%2fny%2fnew-york-city%2fokx%2f/RK=2/RS=oUznnPvuFqQsfltdkiud7Zc9.vk-

    Circulation in radar echos on Long Island

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    N and NW sfc winds in NYC, S winds on Long Island, W wind
    In Atlantic City.

  6. TK – I always keep several windows open in my house for the entire summer until it gets seriously cool for fall. Regarding a tornado, should all windows be immediately closed or just leave them open “as is” and head to the basement?

    I do seem to recall in years past the cracking open of windows advice was given out as legitimate advice from meteorologists at the time. Thanks TK for the advice from the previous blog.

    1. I guess I was thinking an extreme case in which I had a very short time to make a decision as to close the windows vs. head to the basement. Of course living in Boston a tornado is highly unlikely anyway. Obviously best to close windows in advance of warning. Thanks.

  8. FWIW MyRadar Pro sent me a warning for the severe thunderstorm and BOTH tornado warnings before they were posted by NWS.

  10. Damage update from Webster: 3 buildings condemned (2 commercial, 1 multi-use), 4-5 additional buildings placarded as uninhabitable, 25 residents displaced, 1 minor injury (from scanner sounded like a homeless camp that took heavy damage). Heavy tree damage in Dudley, but no structural damage. Very lucky things weren’t worse.

    1. Thank you. I have not heard of any injuries. Thank God. With that damage, I think it would be a miracle.

  11. How many tornadoes has New England had this season? I recall 3 NH, 3 VT, 5 CT (only because I read somewhere it is a record for a season), three recent in MA. No idea for ME and RI and my recollection is only minimal 🙂

    1. Nothing for Rhode Island this year so far. 5 for CT including 4 in one day back on May 15th and of course the three in just over a week in MA.

  13. I have a question, are most of Massachusetts tornadoes weak? I’m not downplaying weak tornadoes. But instead of f2 f3 or f4’s, are most around here f-0’s?

    1. I was living in Texas at the time of the Norman ok tornado, that was if I’m not mistaken 5 miles wide at times and was on the ground for 80 miles.

          1. EF-3 in Windsor Locks CT on October 3 1979

            EF-4 in Great Barrington MA in May 1995

            EF-4 in Springfield MA on June 1 2011.

    2. Most Tornadoes here in New England are weak EF0 EF1 strength which is not to say EF2 or higher tornado can happen its just not common. The last big tornado to hit Massachusetts was an EF3 that hit Springfield on June 1, 2011.

    3. Most tornadoes here are weak, but most tornadoes everywhere are weak, too. EF0’s and 1’s comprise the vast majority of all tornadoes, even on the Plains or in the Southeast. Of course, there are many more tornadoes in those areas, so it only makes sense that they get more of the EF2+ variety. But the notion that EF4 and 5 tornadoes are common out there is a myth. You only get a handful of those in a year. I actually can’t recall the last EF5 in the CONUS. Moore, OK in 2013 maybe? Maybe 1 or 2 others since then that I’m not remembering.

      1. RE; Moore, OK tornado.
        Wife and I landed at Dallas-Ft Worth a few hours after that hit.
        My son had been in Edmund, OK that day and traveled over
        the area hit by the Moore tornado a mere 2 hours before it hit.
        Freaky scary situation.
        When in Ft. Worth, we were smack in the middle of a rather
        large torando watch area for the very next day.. Nothing but a garden variety T-storm came.

        Interesting note: The proprietor of the motel said that in the event of a tornado, grab a pillow and go out into the hallway and
        huddle up to the inner wall with your pillow. yeah right, that
        would help in an Ef-5 or Ef-4. My plan was to watch on Radar
        and hit the road to avoid one if it came. Inner hallway my ass. An EF-4 would have flattened this particular motel.

  14. Glad that you and your property are safe Vicki. I looked up both towns in Wikipedia in that Sutton and Webster are most definitely “neighbors” to say the least. I never can picture off the top of my head regarding location of central MA towns.

    Thanks for reporting. 🙂

    1. Thank you Philip. I think with the help of some others on FB we have traced rhe path of the cell from west Sutton to South Grafton. I need to back it up to webster and Douglas now.

      1. Was away from the computer most of the morning, Vicki.
        Was thinking about you this morning.
        Glad you, your family and property are okay!

  16. Vicki, glad to know you’re okay. That’s too close for comfort, however.

    In Boston the air didn’t feel especially unstable. In fact, I haven’t really heard any thunder, even though we have had some rain, though not a lot.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. Hope you are doing well today. Mrs OS and others too. Humid but decidedly cooler. At least out this way.

  17. There seems to be a line trying to form roughly from Portland, ME down to just NW
    of Sprinfield, MA. Will it amount to anything? Will it make the coast? Time will tell.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25556864&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  18. I didn’t mean to stir up that Massachusetts is behind in strength of tornadoes. I’m just saying when I lived down south they would have tornado sirens in every city town to alert the public bc between March and June they were part of life. Just like snow here is part of life, but not really there.

    1. They’re not behind or ahead. It’s just climate. A more extreme case would be saying that the Amazon is behind Scandinavia in snowfall. Well, technically they are, but it’s just a matter of location. We live on an unevenly heated roughly spherical mass orbiting what we call the sun. Whatever happens is a result of that on a large scale, then impacted by other things on smaller scales. Thankfully, we’re in JUST the right location to be able to survive to observe it all, be that directly, or through the technology we now posses to look at places we’ll never physically visit. 🙂

      1. I totally understand. However in my time in Texas we experience a 13 inch snowstorm, a f3 tornado 3 miles away. A hail storm the size of baseballs that caused destruction. A 105 degrees. Granted it’s all short lived. But that was just in around 24-25 yrs. thank you for the blog woodshill.

        1. Well, Texas is a very very big state, and there is a lot more room for things to happen, not to mention being influenced by Rockies downslope, cold air straight down from Canada via the Plains, and that little bathtub otherwise known as the Gulf of Mexico. 😉

          Curious, after Texas, where have you lived?

      2. I have to say that I don’t recall as a kid hearing Don Kent, Bob Copeland, etc. using the word “tornado” regarding our local weather specifically. It seems nowadays it’s used just like our traditional weather terms like snow, freezing rain, hail, lightning, etc.

        2. Irony: I’m going to see one of my favorite musicians tonight. He is playing a show in Natick. His second album was called “The Flat Earth”. But no, he’s not a “Flat Earther”. 😉

  19. Not to beat a dead horse here regarding cracking open windows, but the more I’m thinking about it, that “old wives tale” was broadcast on air as legitimate advice as recently as this current century, if not on June 1, 2011. I hope I am remembering wrong and totally mistaken.

    1. There are still alot of folks out there in the position to pass along info to the masses that are incorrectly informed on some if not many topics.

    2. I heard it as a youngster. Someone from the Midwest told people I know that the safest thing to do is sit in your car, windows open, ignition in on but not turned on and seatbelt on. Not sure of the thought process with that but hmmmm

        1. The advice is abandon the vehicle in favor of a permanent structure. If such a structure is not available, seek shelter in as low as area as possible to avoid flying debris.

  20. Another question. Thank you for indulging me….on a daily basis

    Was there thunder and lightning with the cell through here? I couldn’t hear anything in basement So assumed there was. As was case last week, it occurred to me there might not have been.

  21. Parts of SE MA may experience at least some heavy downpours in the next 90 to 120 minutes (starting right now).

  22. whats your early thoughts on fall. Above average or closer to normal in terms of temperatures and precipitation?

    1. Well, if you are asking me, I predict it is scheduled to arrive sometime around sept 22 😉

      Hi Matt. The adrenaline crash brought out some snark it seems

    2. Right now I like the idea of cool trough out west, mild ridge in the east. Retrogression may back things up for some very cool shots of air though. Preliminary idea. Will look more in the next week or so.

  23. Well, the Sox have taken 3 straight from the Yankees.
    Is Price up to the task of making it a 4 game sweep.
    Let us hope so!!!

  25. For what it is worth…..Todd gross and the tornado expert he had speak at his weather watcher meet and greet (I can’t recall his name) thought, along with many others, the Worcester 1953 tornado should have be an EF5 in many towns. A team reviewed it in the early 2000s but I think there was not enough remaining to make a determination.

  26. Welfleet, MA on the Cape received close to 5″ of rain this evening from training thunderstorms moving over them. We could see the back edge of the cumulus on the eastern sky, illuminated by the sun, which looked awesome.

  28. Not sure how the acurite works, JPD. I wasn’t getting charts for most of the event today. Both my wunder station and my charts now say 0.13 for day. My display says 1.64 which is comparable to other wunder stations in the area. I wonder why charts at least don’t catch up to the info sent to display or why display works and charts do not

    1. This is the wording in its entirety

      “Surreal! This was Posted by Michael Ramakrishnan .
      Thank you Michael. I’ve never seen anything like this:
      Info that he posted with the pic: Altocumulus clouds & a sunset at 30,000 feet amidst California fires..”

  30. So the Webster tornado was officially rated as an EF-1.
    Looking at the damage on TV, I wondering if it shouldn’t have been an EF-2.
    The damage looked very similar to the damage produced by the Revere
    tornado which was an EF-2.

    1. The construction of those buildings was not great, so that’s why it probably looked worse.

      1. I think you are correct. My wife was commenting on just
        that during the news. It did look like sub-par construction.
        If that’s the case, kudos to the survey team for taking that
        into account.

        By all witness accounts, it was quite a storm that residents
        will never forget.

        1. I’m not convinced but then when am I ever. The construction is similar to Upton and, in the case of the brick buildings, better. The damage is more significant.

  31. Updating now. This will look a lot like yesterday’s. Short to medium range are locked in I think.

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