Monday Forecast

149 Comments

6:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)
High pressure ridge dominates and heat peaks today, then the ridge slips back to the east a little and allows a trough from the west to get closer. This will create an approximately 48 hour long period in which showers and thunderstorms are possible from about the middle of Tuesday afternoon to the middle of Thursday afternoon, but the most likely time to see these will be Wednesday. This chance diminishes late in the week as the piece of the trough that comes eastward lifts out and high pressure regains control. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-88 south-facing shores, 89-96 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-73. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 82-87 coast, 87-92 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-74. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Highs 82-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slightly less humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon. Lows from the lower 60s to lower 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs in the 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible August 12 and 14, otherwise mainly dry weather and temperatures ending up above normal with more building heat as the dominant high pressure ridge slides back to the west, closer to the Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)
Very warm to hot pattern with mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms at times as the Bermuda High remains dominant but some heat from the middle of the US also gets transported via the Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of another advancing trough.

149 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning from HELL….
    BLAZING hot today. You can take it, I don’t want it. Enough already.

    By some sort of miracle, we made it to our daughter’s yesterday.
    The rain cool down Saturday, allowed the house to cool some and ever so slightly
    less humidity yesterday did the trick.

    Now what does this week bring. let it be AUTUMN, pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!!!

    1. Nice that you were able to get to your daughter’s yesterday. I hope it was some comfort for your wife.

      You should come to my house where the DP’s are probably low-mid 80s. 😉

      1. Thanks Philip. She’ll most likely pay dearly for it today.

        Wish the sea breeze would make it to my house. NOT A CHANCE!

  5. A bit of a review.

    I did a little compare of the radial velocity displays for
    the Webster tornado and the Revere tornado. Without taking into account the height
    of these views as Revere is a bit farther from the radar site than Webster. However,
    given that, the displays tell the story. Clearly Revere was the stronger event.

    https://imgur.com/a/rXJOrZ5

      1. I knew that you would appreciate this stuff, being a Math guy. 😀
        I really think it is pretty cool and I can’t understand WHY
        I didn’t seek out this information previously. DUH!!!!

    1. Wind is light SW at 3.5 mph. Unless the wind picks up, Logan is destined
      for yet another sea breeze and BOGUS representation of the City.

  11. This has been the most awesome stretch of summer weather than I can remember. Keep it coming!

    1. This has been the most AWFUL stretch of summer weather that I can remember. Get it outta here!! 😉

      1. I with you 100%. Brutal humidity and numbers from Logan
        don’t tell 1/2 the story for the rest of the city!!!!!!

    2. Have to say its been some of the best summer weather we have had in a while. Hope it continues through August.

  12. Update from the SPC for tomorrow around 1:30 this afternoon. We won’t see an update for Wed until tomorrow.

  14. Back in late June (25th onward), the EURO in its 6 to 10 day period consistently showed the first week of July heat wave coming.

    In July, again, the 6 to 10 day period did a really good job projecting the westward advance of the Bermuda High. It was very consistent, run to run.

    Which brings me to the 6 to 10 day projection on the Euro the last few days. In my opinion, it’s been all over the place. Very little consistency. Sometimes, Midwest heat coming over the top, now a trof and even a cut off low. Sometimes the Bermuda high retrograding again. Don’t know if this inconsistency perhaps signals a longer term pattern change, to what, I don’t know …….

    1. Excellent Tom. You are really good at this sort of thing.
      Perhaps the atmosphere (or more likely this model) doesn’t
      know what it will do. 😀

      1. Thanks JpDave ….. hoping for a turn to something cooler and especially less humid for your wife and others who do not like this stuff or takes a toll on them.

        1. that would be awesome. It doesn’t have to be too cool, just drier. 85 and dry would be excellent.
          80 and dry, that much better. 😀

    2. Great information, Tom. I’ll stand firmly behind less humid for Mrs. OS and Philip and Joshua and others who struggle in this humidity.

      1. Vicki,

        Please read farther above for a post that might interest you as you seem to be an inquiring mind type of person.

        1. THANK YOU for pointing out that comment. Very interesting indeed. I do not have flash on my computer so cannot access the last link to bookmark but wish I could as I’d love to compare it to the Douglas – Northbridge tornado week before last.

          I do see that Revere was quite a bit stronger. It was estimated to have winds between 100-120. Someone, somewhere, mentioned that the Webster missed an EF2 by 1 mph….not sure if that is accurate.

          I keep watching for the determination in S. Grafton. The damage we found in Sutton was identical to that in Uxbridge two weeks ago. But my understanding is there was more damage in S. Grafton.

  15. 10:30 AM and it is 88 at Logan and 88 at Norwood.
    Logan now has a very light SSW at 5 mph. Any off and on sea breeze
    appears to be feeble at best.

    2. Gee what a surprise! Lawrence reaching 90 first….

      And a couple hours before it actually IS 90 there.

  17. Looking at the 12Z 3KM NAM, it is NOT Bullish on Convection
    for tomorrow OR Wednesday. Some, but not much.

  19. With what the euro is showing,, this pattern we are in is going to be stubborn for the next month or two. It will weaken some what as we go through September but I truly think we will continue to see it through september with heat and humidity. But when it ends, It will end and we will feel it in October. November and first part of december ( which is still fall meteorological speaking) looks to be variable but still average above average temperatures but increased storm chances. this is my general feel as of right now for the fall season.

    1. Thanks, Matt. Nice to see you here. You’ve had two summers in a row on an island – very nice indeed.

      If we feel autumn in october it will be the first (with some exceptions) in a number of years. I like a more traditional, colder October and early November than we have been having. Although, I always smile when I say that. Back in 2015 when we were having a warm stretch in early November Tom mentioned on here that he’d like it to be cooler. I said for once I did not because Mac was able to sit outside. Tom, in his very special way, immediately said he would keep hoping for the warmer weather 🙂

      1. I do not think we will see an early fall, I feel like we will see a change in the pattern and we will feel it, I still think we will be warm for the time of year but not as much humidity.

        Yes, its been nice being able to do research on Nantucket last summer, and then this summer being a Teaching assistant for one of the more well known laboratories on the east coast in Shoals marine lab. As well as learning more about Macro-algae which I will have to admit, I knew very little about until now lol. Most of what I have focused on is seagrass, reefs and salt marshes. Now I can say I have done stuff with every marine habitat in New England. For those interested, Macro-algae are in three forms, green, brown and red. your Brown algae is all the kelp species for the most part.

        Also, its been nice to be on the islands these past two summers, as consistent sea breezes kept temperatures no higher than 85 degrees and humidity was not bad 😛

  20. 88 with a 69 dew point in Franklin. All and all not to bad. I feel for those that have problems during warmer periods like this.

  21. No tornado other than Webster. I am curious why not in Grafton.

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) SURVEYED DAMAGE IN THE MASSACHUSETTS TOWNS OF DUDLEY, WEBSTER, SUTTON, AND GRAFTON. WE
    CONCLUDED THAT A HIGH-END EF-1 TORNADO ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE STRUCK DUDLEY AND WEBSTER, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN
    WEBSTER. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS THERE WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 MPH. THE TORNADO WAS 300 YARDS WIDE AND TRAVELED 0.5 MILES IN LENGTH FROM 948
    AM TO 949 AM. TREE DAMAGE IN SUTTON AND GRAFTON WAS NOT INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO. ALL OF THE DAMAGE WAS THE RESULT OF THE SAME STORM
    THAT PRODUCED THE EF-0 TORNADO IN NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

    1. Interesting, JPD, that you saw the potential in this system before NWS – or at least I hope they didn’t see it since you also stated strong rotation on WHW 10 minutes before it was warned by them.

      Did they ever tornado warn the one in CT??

      That is 6 tornadoes in CT this season if I didn’t miss any.

      1. I do not recall if the warned the CT system. I don’t think
        I ever saw it, not to say it was not there.

        1. Thanks JPD. I was watching carefully since you had already noted at 9:21 that the system needed watching (I seem to recall – and am not positive – that it was in CT at that time) and at 9:32 you noted that it was rotating and headed this way. That was just about 10 minutes before NWS warned it. I do not recall a warned area in CT but clearly I was more focused on this area. JJ may know

          Yet again – you were 10 minutes ahead of the NWS. 🙂

          1. The one I noted that was in CT, was the same cell
            that ended up hitting Webster. I don’t recall seeing anything for that other CT cell.

            1. I just checked all of my posts. yes, the one
              I originally posted about in CT, was indeed the same one that hit Webster.

              I never saw anything for that other CT
              warned cell. It may have been brief and I missed it. I dunno.

  22. Thank you TK! Sure is hot out there and I too would welcome drier air for those who are so badly affected by this weather. October can’t come soon enough!

  23. There have been 6 tornadoes in CT this season with 4 occurring on one day.
    Two of the six tornadoes happened in Windham County, CT. This county had not had a tornado since July 1992 and now two have happened there this year.

    1. I had heard that the five in one season (before the sixth occurred) was a new record for CT in a season but am not sure of the accuracy of that.

  26. Well a big jumbo jet just blasted the temperature sensor at logan and popped
    the temperature up to 95. Not sure it is really 95. I suspect 93 or perhaps maybe
    94, but not 95.

    1. Thank you, JJ. I wonder what I read. I cannot find it again. Perhaps it was a period of time or perhaps I dreamed it 🙂

  28. It’s as oppressive outside as a South American dictatorship. Seriously, this is getting me down. I just can’t function. My body feels drained of energy and my brain fried, so I can’t work effectively. With deadlines for grants and other proposals looming this month, this is getting problematic.

    1. Sorry to hear Joshua. I seem to be able to work at least
      nearly as efficiently as if it were cooler and drier. I “think” It may slow
      be down just a tad, but certainly not by much.

      Best of luck.

  29. Logan has the highest reading around at 95.
    Even normally high Norwood is at 93

    OH! I take that back.

    Lawrence is reporting 97 !!!!
    What a surprise.

    TK and SAK GO GET EM!!!!!!

        1. Temps around Hingham are:
          Foster School 96
          South School 99
          Turkey Hill Lane 97
          Black Rock 95
          South Street 94
          Conservatory Park (about 2/10ths of a mile from me) 96
          I’m sure that South School and Turkey Hill Lane are a little on the high side.
          Inside the house in the non AC bedrooms…92!!

          1. that last line should have been in the non AC areas of the house (the bedrooms have AC)

              1. There are times when Logan matches stuff, but in general, no, they are not correct. I’ll be getting to the bottom of all of these stations if it’s the last thing I do.

                1. Csn younger permission to place several calibrated instruments at the location

                  I’d think any airport would struggle with outside influence…..exhaust, pavement, etc.

  30. At 2:50 pm, Boston Harbor buoy temp reading 75F.

    Today’s the kind of day for warm surface water …. light winds, sun, warm air mass and water overall at its peak temperatures.

  31. Pool water is a toasty 76 degrees……….
    Mean while some of our ocean waters are coming in around 70 to 74 degrees….. Even up to cape an. The gulf of Maine is experiancing the largest climb in temperature in the world. Which is creating havoc for fish, Invertebrates and for the fishermen and crabbers that fish these species. Several species of fish that are usually fished this time of year has not been seen off of Nantucket this year.

  32. JPD – saw your comment about the CT tornado. I thought the one in Woodstock CT was the same system that then moved NE into MA and Webster??

      1. News reports have it at the same time.

        JJ – do you have a better time on the Woodstock tornado/system?

        Curiosity killed the cat. I don’t have nine lives but I really enjoy piecing things together. Oddly, however, I absolutely do not have the patience for puzzles.

  33. 97 at Lawrence. If I could put an audible Butthead laugh here I’d do it. And Beavis would say “yeah! yeah! that’s hot! Yeah!”

      1. I’m hoping all that changes not long from now and I can take this place in a completely new direction.

        I’m getting close to making this and photography my complete “career”.

          1. And one of the things that I am going to start going after hot and heavy is the poorly calibrated stations. I am certain this problem exists far beyond the reaches of New England…

            2. I’m curious if there a procedure in place for recalibration. What, if anything, is done with the data that was gathered during the errant period? Is there an attempt to adjust for the past errors, is there some sort of notation added, is it just left as it is, …?

              Thanks!

  34. Vicki the tornado in northeastern CT Saturday started in northern Woodstock and ended in Quinebeaug area of Thompson. The estimated time was between 9:36am-9:40am rated an EF0 with max winds of 80mph. The path width was 8 yards and the path length was 5 miles but it was discontinuous.

    1. 8 yards or 24 feet in width???

      Wow, that was little more than a dust devil.

      Btw this looks to be the exact same cell that hit Webster.

      Here is a map of CT. See elliptical outline in black:

      https://imgur.com/a/3njEZCy

      Also, here is the rotation that I first posted while it was in CT.
      I “think” it lines up: (well perhaps if it moved more to the East for a bit???)
      This is the only rotation around at the time.

      https://imgur.com/a/vYgf55b

    2. So that would be the same system I believe that JPD saw and warned about just prior to that time???

  36. Regarding calibration, I wish I could answer that. I don’t know if there is a regular procedure for it. There used to be. How I wish the State Climatologist I worked with in the private sector was still with us. He’d know. He knew everything. I can probably get that info through a couple NWS connections I have.

    These remote automated sensors should have their calibration checked at LEAST once per season, i.e., 4 times per year, in my opinion.

  37. I’d be curious as to whether the ASOS calibration issue- which is very obvious at a station like Lawrence- also extends to stations reporting temperatures cooler than actual. Maybe something to look at in the cold weather months.

    Totally agree with TK that they should be calibrated regularly. Every season would be logistically tough, but at least yearly, maybe more at the major climate sites.

    1. Like everything else, I am sure it’s a budget issue for NOAA.
      Heck, they calibrate the gas pumps at our service stations and the scales where we buy our cold cuts!

        1. The same happened in the electric industry. But that was more of an effort to keep money at the top. Utilities cut back on testing years ago

          I don’t understand not calibrating. Little me is always checking and double checking other sources to make sure my PWS reports are as close as they possibly can be

          But other stations along the coast seemed to be in line with Boston…..no????

    2. I have wondered the same, but that bolsters the argument for regular calibration checks.

  38. 93.4 for the high at our plush, but not overly ostentatious, home in Taunton.
    Anyone remember Norm Nathan on WHDH Radio????

    2. I remember norm and that phrase. He was special when it came to making you smile a happy smile.

      1. I remember him “Old Sport”. In a roundabout way he was the reason I started in on the radio hobby. In the mid 60s he had his overnight show on WHDH “Sounds in the Night” As youngster with his transistor radio under his pillow I became a listener and came to like a lot of jazz artists from the 40s and 50s. I also started hearing other long distance stations at night and became hooked on radio. Somewhere in my mp3 collection I have the instrumentals he opened and closed the show with….I’ll have to find them. Thank you for this very fond memory.

        1. You recall much more than I. I’d love to see what you find. You have tons of memories of old Boston that I only recall when I see your posts.

  39. I hope it will be ok to play devil’s advocate and throw this out there ….

    Is it possible the Logan and Lawrence sensors are getting the temperature correct and rather its two locations that run 1 to 2F warmer on these type of days than everywhere else.

    Logan : on a land breeze under sun, with the runways, the airplanes and bring downwind of the Boston heat island, isn’t it plausible that the airport would run slightly warmer than surrounding areas ?

    Lawrence : on these hot, sunny days with west and especially southwest winds, the air parcels in that area are going through 2 urban heat islands, Lowell and Lawrence before reaching, I believe, where the temperature is measured. Having grown up in Lowell and been around Lawrence, there are all of those old mill buildings and lots of development that would take in a lot of heat that the countryside away from the 2 cities wouldn’t absorb to that degree.

    Back to Logan : when it’s not sunny and hot …. when there’s a cool spring seabreeze, I can’t ever remember thinking, why is the Logan seabreeze 2F milder than all other coastal reporting stations. If I’m not crazy, Logans temp in the spring can be the coldest of the bunch. If true, would the sensor work fine in one season and not the other ?

    1. Excellent, Tom. Runs along my thoughts. I think any check has to be done very accurately, at the exact location, with several control instruments.

    2. I’d consider it but Logan is too warm just as often in winter if not more than during the warm season.

      And SAK has already shown me the data that shows Lawrence 2-4F too warm year-round.

      1. Thanks Vicki and TK !!

        It’s an interesting topic for sure and I appreciate being able to contribute to the excellent discussion on it.

        1. I am fascinated …..might be a tad bit obvious. 😉

          It’s my nature but then 37 years with a man who majored in math and chemistry and performed tests that set national and often worldwide standards and had to be calibrated as close to perfect as humanly possible didn’t hurt

      2. Did they allow him access to the location? That says a lot for their willingness to cooperate. A good start

        1. The data is available to all if you know how to look up a co-op station. Meteorologists do it all the time so it’s something SAK and others have looked at for years. We look at all these places over and over, and over, and over……

          and over.

          So when something goes askew, we notice it.

                1. I’m on my way out the door but I have a link somewhere that plots every single station, co-op, and back yard observing site, on a map. I’ll grab that later tonight or 1st thing in the morning.

    3. Tom, I think you nailed it. I feel it all depends on whats around the station. Airports generally have no shade, lots of black top, and can be breezy compared to surrounding areas as its basically a field.

      Lawrence can recieve heat from Nashua and Lowell. Just look at your heat island maps and you can see it.

      Also, we need to make sure that the general public hears the entire situation of a few of them being “different” due to the stations themselves, We do not want climate deniers using this so they can say oh look faulty equipment……

      1. Unless every recording station worldwide is wrong, no one can deny that the world has been warming for fhos entire century. It is exactly what I said a few days ago. Supporters and deniers all focus on one bit of data rather than the whole and run with it.

      3. That’s not what this is about.

        I’m talking about sensors, not climate change deniers.

  40. Ok I get there are questions and wonders about SAK’s research, but this doesn’t have anything to do with an argument about climate.

    We are simply stating the fact that there are INCORRECT SENSORS being used. We are not running a hidden agenda or anything to prove there is no change in climate. This is simply about correct data. Lawrence’s temperatures are INCORRECT and have been for some time. And they are only one of quite a few stations. And by the way, not all of them are running warm, some are running too low. We’ll get it all put together, don’t worry.

    Once SAK finishes the initial study I’ll get some links etc. so people can look for themselves and I assure you that the same results will be discovered.

    Speaking of heat, I have to go help a friend install an AC so I’m on my way…

    1. Thank you for staying you’re ground. This is one reason I joined. To say humans are the main reason for climate change is absurd which I’m sure many would agree. Before we moved here we were told that Massachusetts is extremely liberal m, and I don’t mean that in a bad way. We will not change the growing south. We won’t change here.

      1. I never said we don’t influence climate

        My point was just that the data we are calling into question has to do only with accuracy of statistics. The climate debate is an entirely separate issue.

        I’m not sure who will have needed to tell you that MA was a liberal state. If you pay attention to politics even lightly it’s very well known. 🙂

        By the way I meant to ask what years you lived there. If you said it before my apologies. I missed it.

      2. Snow, whats your proof that climate change is not one of the main reasons for the current change in climate? I would love to see your sources….

        1. my point was that if we fix these sensors, we need to make entirely sure that the public hears the entire reasoning behind it. We need to let people know that despite the degree or two cooler temperatures the readings will become do not mean we are cooling down and that some will make it out to be that we are cooling, when we are not.

          1. I agree and it is what I have said several times. Deniers will grab onto the two degrees cooler and supporters will grab onto the two degrees warner

            On the scale of things, New England doesn’t matter. It is the a far larger world that matters

            I don’t think TKs point has anything to do with climate change. It is about accuracy…no matter what it shows.

            I feel partly responsible because I simply like facts and data. I’m far too old to just nod if someone says that is how it is. Or I’m stubborn. Or both. Please don’t interpret it as any more

            Snow…liberal? Since 1900 MA has had more years of republican governors and senators than it has Democrats. It has also done better with a republican governor. We are not liberal or conservative. We are simply a state that has the best of the best to offer….education, medical, and anything else you want to throw out there.

              2. It’s only Democrat in the presidential race because of areas inside 495, go outside into central and western mass it’s more republicans

          2. I don’t think they’d even notice it was fixed. They just take the temperatures as they are that appear on the TV weather maps or their phone apps.

            This is not about a climate change debate at all. This won’t jeopardize what people think.

        1. Trust me. It’s not a battle. Sometimes it just takes a while to get people to understand what you mean. 🙂

          I’m REALLY good at this.

    1. Depends on several favors including but not limited to time of year, time of day, and synoptic situation.

  42. For the record, I agree that the temperature sensor issue stands on its own.

    I believe SAK’s data that the temp in LAWRENCE is running 2 to 4F year round, above nearby surrounding areas.

    I hope the NWS, or perhaps even a TV station might put some time into looking into this and seeing WHY this 2-4F difference is occurring. ……. Is it all an uncalibrated sensor, a mixture of an uncalibrated sensor and some of what I described in my original comment or a calibrated sensor working correctly that is measuring a heat maxima formed at the northeast edge of the Merrimack Valley ??

    2. tom loving your comments as always, you gotta put, technology issues, geology, water features, forest, roads, human activity all of it into consideration.

    3. It’s not measuring a heat maxima unless that heat maxima appeared out of nowhere after years or not being there. I guarantee you that is not what happened. What happened was this: the sensor went “bad”. And that’s happened at alot of stations, both to the + and to the -.

  43. Here is my 2c…

    Airports should NOT be weather stations! Technically, Roxbury is the geographic center of the city of Boston which would make a natural location for all “Boston” climo stats.

    2. That’s all well and good too, but Lawrence’s issue is not related to it being an airport.

  44. I come away from this feeling like nobody actually understood how simple a point SAK and I are trying to make. 🙂 But oh well. I’m moving on from this for now and will update when I have something to update.

    In the mean time, updating the blog very quickly right now…

  45. New post!

    I am going to have a busy day so probably not around the comments too much. I’ll try to catch up on things when I can.

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