Friday Forecast

75 Comments

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)
Some adjustments to the forecast today, as the unsettled weather is going to make a quicker arrival than I had been thinking. Enjoy one very bright, warm, and less humid day today, as an easterly air flow takes over this weekend along with some period of wet weather, as low pressure evolves south of New England. This will persist into early next week but as the low finally drifts westward and high pressure off the East Coast strengthens a little bit later in the period the air flow will become more southerly by Tuesday, allowing it to warm slightly. The humidity, which takes a bit of a break today especially away from the South Coast, makes a comeback from the weekend onward, but this time without the heat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm interior areas. Humid. Highs 72-80. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)
The ridge offshore may not be quite as strong as expected before so this may allow additional disturbances from the west to enhance the shower/thunderstorm risk at times in an overall warm/humid pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)
A quick shot of cooler air is possible early in the period then turning warmer to hotter with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

75 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    DP 62 at home this morning. MUCH better, but I’d rather 50s. We’ll take what we can get!

  10. The only good thing in my opinion that has come from this tropical humidity is the fact the grass is green.

    1. I’m ready for a cool down, but does this mean there’s projected snow on the 16 day GFS ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Good to see you posting Hadi !

  12. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/GEOCOLOR/1000×1000.jpg

    So, Mt Washington’s summit saw a 10F drop occur btwn say 4 and 9am, where the temp went from 53F to 43F, decent cold air advection behind a disturbance in New Brunswick.

    So, the upper levels should be cooling just a bit in southern New England as the afternoon wears on ….. at the sfc, it’s mid 80s with low to mid 60 dewpoints and eventually a possible seabreeze.

    I wonder if it’s that slowly sinking line of cumulus clouds that may pop
    A shower or thunder shower on it ????

      1. Yes, that disturbance also helped to dry out far northern New England. Unfortunately, no further push into southern New England.

  13. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    The projected negative NAO is changing …… now looking more positive and sure enough, the long range models are now keeping the main jet stream to our north, around 60N Latitude.

    That cool refreshing shot probably less likely now around the 19th to 20th.

    Probably 2 more weeks, at least, of either humid weather (like this weekend), above average temps (like today), or both (like next Tuesday and Wednesday).

  14. So WxWatcher posted a picture yesterday of a flooded car in Orleans at Friends Marketplace. ‘Lo and behold that car was my friend Kristen’s vehicle. She is out vacationing on the Cape this week. She had texted me this picture a few hours before that she had taken:

    https://s33.postimg.cc/bv61w0adb/20180809_103625.jpg

    Basically the same picture of her vehicle that you posted only taken from the other side. I guess she was inside getting breakfast when the intensity of rain increased and the water rose very quickly. Her car was actually parked in that spot (it did not float there) and she was able to get in it, start it, and drive away though the interior floors were wet. She may have dodged a bullet!

    2. Yikes – it is a small world. And she is very lucky.

      Thanks, Mark. It is nice to see you here. I miss your posts.

  15. Nice layer of cumulus covering 30-40% of the sky here in the city, however,
    there is ZERO vertical growth at this time.

  16. Still watching for the flooding potential this weekend into early next week. Wonder if we’ll see any flood or flash flood watches go up later today or tonight. Best odds for the heaviest rain look to be in the interior and CT especially, but I think there’s a risk of heavy rain all the way to the coast, as well as up into southern NH/VT. 12z Euro for instance is centered more on eastern MA/RI with its heaviest rain amounts, a widespread 2-3″, locally higher.

    FWIW, while the coming stretch will be a little cooler with the rain, the heat looks poised to make a strong comeback mid-month onwards.

  18. From the Norton NWS office. Here we go again. This possibility was mentioned
    here yesterday:

    We also should mention that there is the very low risk of an
    isolated severe thunderstorm, but odds are against that. There
    is enough low level helicity to be concern for the possibility
    of a weak tornado late tonight. The question is can this
    helicity get paired up with enough instability. Have some doubts
    at this time. It will be something which needs to be watched.

    Another HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE environment. I have a feeling that since
    Douglas and Upton on one day and Webster on another, they felt the need
    to mention, even though it is a very low risk.

    Here is an article of HSLC

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00041.1

  20. It’s the NAMs vs. the HRRR again for precip tomorrow morning. NAMs much more aggressive with the rain in this case, with the HRRR pretty much keeping it dry in eastern sections through mid-morning.

      1. A lot of the other hi-res guidance is more in line with the NAM solution. But I always hate to bet against the HRRR….

        1. I’ve been burned too many times by the HRRR to
          trust it. Perhaps it is much better since the upgrade, but
          it needs to earn my trust. Although, it has been decent with the recent convection.

  21. I am very much hoping extended periods of heat and humidity do not return, but I know my hope is in vain.

    Just discovered a $2,500 `casualty’ of this extended period of humidity in the building I live in. Because of the duration of the humidity the comparatively new large back entrance door, which is at basement level, has been stuck for the last month to 6 weeks. You have to push hard to get it open, because the door and frame are stuck together from the wood expansion and moisture. Well, all that pushing has resulted in a completely broken door frame (paneling on left side and on top of the door) and now the door itself has cracks. If it needs to be replaced the damages will be much more than $2,500. Back Bay doors are large and quite expensive, and part of that is the need to conform to code (not just the City of Boston, also the historical commission).

    Oh well, as my mother used to say, “at least it’s just an inanimate object.”

      1. It’s quite minor in the grand scheme of things. Luckily we in the building share in the costs of anything that is common area space.

      1. I think not as much here. We’ve had 0.15. But we have had a good amount so it’s nice to see other areas get if

  24. Update will be in 10AM hour. Battling an autoimmune disease flare up, always slows me down, but in the end I always win the battle. 🙂

  25. Good morning and what rain?
    We have managed to squeak out 0.01 inch. Now there’s a gully washer for you.

      1. Hard to say, but My guess is neither. To me, what appears to be
        happening is something in Between the 2. Perhaps I am way
        off base.

        One thing I can say. WHERE is the rain???????????????
        😀 😀 😀

        1. So far the rain is about where it was expected, when it was expected. NAM has been ok, and in the shorter range the HRRR has been good to excellent.

    1. Sorry, The changed it within the couple of minutes that I had viewed it.
      “Some” rotation still there as you can see.

  28. TK, take care of yourself first. Hope you feel better.

    Barely any rain in Back Bay. Enough to make the streets wet. That’s it. It is cooler outside, though.

  30. Picked up a decent amount of rain here in Franklin. I’d guess .50-.75. And judging by radar we will receive another .50-.75 today. Wouldn’t surprise me if many come close to 2 inches of rain.

      1. That big blob of heavy rain, is that going to effect us. Looks like it’s going to pour between 11-1. I’m no expert though.

        1. It won’t pour for 2 hours between 11 and 1 but you may get clipped by that area near Woonsocket. You’ll probably get into an area of general showers and embedded downpours this afternoon. Areas east and southeast of you will have less frequent rain this afternoon.

  31. As far as the disease, it’s been worse. The last 15 years have been relatively easy, about 4 minor to briefly moderate flares. Between 1994 and 2005 the disease was active more often than not, and many of the flares were moderate to borderline severe. There were periods of time when not only was 3/4 of my large intestine ulcerated, but I had hives on more than half my body that itched like crazy if you just touched them, the lining of my eyeball was inflamed to the point it felt like there was an ice pick in it, and at least 1 knee and/or ankle was so inflamed that I was not able to walk without help. THAT was not fun. I’ll take these minor ones as they come. The medication I take is a wonderful gift. 🙂

    Updating now!

      1. The battle is being waged and will be won. It can take anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, but I’ll get there. 🙂

  32. From NWS…

    Other risk that we are monitoring is potential isolated severe
    storm or brief tornado/waterspout along the boundary. Marginal
    instability south of the Mass Pike but guidance is indicating
    best low level shear may be confined north of the boundary and
    best instability. It is a very low risk, but given the boundary
    and tropical environment with low LCLs, this will be closely
    monitored with highest risk across RI and SE MA and adjacent
    coastal waters.

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