Saturday Forecast

114 Comments

11:31AM

COMMENTARY
We currently have a good example going on of medium range uncertainty in forecasting. Guidance alone pretty much failed to pick up on this small low pressure area impacting the weekend weather when this period of time was beyond several days in the future. The general outlook was one that would probably have you envisioning a more typical August weekend with warmth, humidity, and maybe a few showers/storms. Well, this is not actually all that far off of that, being cooler due to cloud cover and an onshore flow, but with the humidity and some wet weather, just a little more widespread. We started to pick up on this a few days ago, and even then still had to adjust timing and location as initially it looked like the South Coast would be the wettest place today. The lesson here, even though we can see a lot of things in the future, never take a day 5 forecast and expect it to verify exactly. There is a reason why forecasts, including the one on this blog, is updated daily. Predicting the future is not easy. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)
Low pressure will impact the weather for this entire period, but that does not mean 5 days of rain and cool temperatures either. We will witness an evolution in details as low pressure spins to the south of New England this weekend and then backs up to the west early next week, being absorbed by a larger scale southerly flow, then the remains of the low coming back across the region in the form of a trough by the end of the period. What does this all mean for the weather here? Well we’ve already seen some heavy showers in southern areas but the axis of most widespread rain will now shift to one that runs from southeastern NH and northeastern through central MA down through RI & eastern CT, and these areas will be wettest most often through this evening, including some embedded downpours which may result in some road flooding, as well as the chance of a few rumbles of thunder. To the southeast of this, activity will be more isolated, but any downpours that do develop there have the chance to produce a strong wind gust with even some local damage possible. Tonight, that axis will pivot eastward and a more general area of showers/thunderstorms will move back across the entire region before exiting early on Sunday. During Sunday, activity will be much more isolated regionwide, but some breaks of sun can still fuel some pretty serious downpours, so while many areas may get through the day with little or no rainfall, some areas that do see it can pick up quite a bit in a short time. Another surge of energy may increase the coverage of showers/storms on Monday. By Tuesday when our friendly low pressure area has moved back to the west we’ll get into a more tropical-feeling southerly air flow with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms, and Wednesday is the day when it all comes back east as a trough with additional showers and storms possible, but probably more then exception than the rule. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, some heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Most numerous shower activity southeastern NH, northeastern through central MA, RI, and eastern CT. Humid. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH. Slight risk of briefly stronger wind gusts in any isolated downpours/storms in southern areas.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Numerous showers with probable embedded thunderstorms, some heavy. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light E but briefly strong wind gusts possible in any storms.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered to isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 70s coast, upper 70s to lower 80s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)
While the ridge in the Atlantic hangs a little further east a couple more disturbances will be able to move through from west to east. This would bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but overall this period would not be all that wet. Seasonably warm and somewhat humid weather will be the rule, though August 16 may be briefly less humid.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)
A possible quick shot of cooler/drier air to start the period then warmer/humid weather returns with a couple shower opportunities. Heat may try to build later in the period as high pressure again strengthens off the East Coast and backs westward.

114 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Overall, the discussion is great, as it always is …. excellent opening discussion on the medium range projections compared to what is actually being seen.

    1. I have to bring that up alot because so many people these days having seen a 5, 7, or 10 day forecast on any media outlet sometimes take it as gospel and forget that these forecasts are never going to be perfect.

      “I thought we were in a hot humid pattern! That’s what they said on the news!” And somehow they think that a hot humid pattern means every SINGLE day is hot and humid with sun or something. 🙂 Of course this is a general observation.

  4. Quite the lighting show last night flying back to RI. From Sarasota last night. Now up to Nahant for a late afternoon wedding hopefully dry for an hour or so for outside pics.

  5. Thanks TK and very good to always remind us about the uncertainties in long range forecasts. That being said you do a pretty amazing job of predicting the future nevertheless! Sorry to hear you’re not feeling well – rest up and hope you recoup quickly!

        1. Hahahahaha. They get back up. You are in he country now….important to know.

          Actually, I just drove back roads to Sutton center and every group of cows I saw….and there are many….were mostly lying down. See how well that theory works 😉

  9. By far the most pleasant run of the summer just now. Yes, I got soaked but it wasn’t hot, there was no sun beating down on me, and the rain felt like a coolish shower. Throughout my jog I was thinking of the Red Hot Chili Pepper’s song “Naked in the Rain” off of what I consider one of the best albums of all time, Blood Sugar Sex Magik.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1UP2VJhXZA

      1. Good question. No, I wasn’t naked. If I had been I would have been arrested by the Boston, Cambridge, or State Police, depending on the jurisdiction I was running in on my my long Saturday jog. But, the rain was heavy and the clothes I had on kept nothing dry, so I sort of felt like I was naked in the rain.

  10. Pouring here in Harvard – we are headed into Boston tonight for our 17th anniversary – celebrating by going to see Bill Maher at the Wang. I’m very happy it’s raining as in my husband Joe’s culture (Berber Moroccan) rain on your wedding day is good luck. It rained on the day 17 years ago and I’ll take today’s showers as a sign of another great 17 years ahead!

    1. Enjoy Bill Maher.

      May it rain on August 11th 2035, August 11th 2052, August 11th 2069, and so on and so forth, each time to commemorate your anniversary.

      When I lived in the Netherlands I had several Berber Moroccan friends.

      I love Moroccan cuisine (the only exception being the raisins; I just don’t add them to the dishes I make).

    3. It poured in the morning of Macs and my wedding day and then turned to an all out major snowstorm as we said our vows. And we had several repeats on December 9 after that day…including last December 9. Not only did we have a marriage happier than any I could have ever dreamed but I know Mac is still with me 🙂

  12. Dear heavens. An alaskans airlines worked stole a 76 passenger airplane from Seattle Tacoma airport, flew stunts over rhe city and then crashed it and was killed in a wooded area They don’t think anyone else was on plane and I’m not hearing reports of any other injuries. F-15s were scrambled right away

    1. It was just him and he talked to the tower by radio basically saying he was sorry to people that cared for him. It was basically a glorified suicide attempt – successfully accomplished.

    1. Unimpeded collisions of boundaries, makes for great convergence and some kick ass t-storms over the water at this time of year.

    1. Maybe because those windows never open and that guy is 1/2 way out????
      I dunno.
      Looks pretty silly to me.

    4. Is it what you don’t see that is the mystery? Oh no. They are the ones missing the ability to fully sense, so they miss out on the reality. Deep for a drawing, I know. But when I’m sick I get rather philosophical. 😉

  16. Might get very downpourish across parts of SNE overnight. May get bright and loud in some spots as well.

    1. I think if something goes it’s going to be with that thing coming across SNE between midnight & dawn.

  18. With the Almanac predicting a cold and snowy winter we know the opposite will happen. They did get the 6 plus inches of snow for Presidents Day weekend right last winter so I will say one of the big storms there predicting they will get right.

      1. You only typed that because you wanted to argue with someone who likes cold/snowy winters. Correct? 🙂

  19. Whoa wait….SNE doesn’t mean anything with possible rotation here between midnight and dawn right ????

  20. I keep trying to find rotation storms. They don’t look anything like rotation storms in the south. No argument. However they look harmless

    1. Do you know how to look for them? And there has only been 1 with broad mid level rotation so far today, so you’ve been fishing in a pretty empty pond. 😉

      2. Listen I’m new to the blog. I’ve seen every kind of weather. I’m 64 yrs old. I’m looking at radar and I’m not scared.

        1. I didn’t ask your age nor if you were scared. I was asking if you knew how to look for them. Storms with rotation only will show a hook echo if very well developed and nearly to or already to the stage of producing a tornado.

          If you have a radar app which allows you to look at velocity profiles you can find broad and very weak rotation in storms that will never even get close to producing tornadoes.

        2. Snow…you better slow down…you were 61 just last week. At that rate you’ll be off the blog (among other things) in about a month LOL

      3. The only time I’ve been totally wowed on weather is when we lived in Texas. The weather Here is changeable however nothing like northern Texas. For the years we’ve lived there. We have seen everything. Except 4 ft of snow

        1. Texas is a very large state. It has a gulf coast, high plains, and a whole lot in between. So it only makes sense the weather runs quite the variety there. I forecast it for years, so trust me, I know what can happen there. 🙂 But thanks.

  21. Thank you woodshill. I don’t mean to be confrontational. I have to go to bed. Thank you, and I’ll check in tomorrow.

    1. Wow, last week you were 61 years old. You build time machines in your spare time? I missed a few birthdays so belated happy birthday x 3. 😉 Goodnight sir (or ma’am). 😉

      1. We have a flood/flash flood warning here which surprised me since we only had 0.48 today. I figured it was for things to come.

  24. I never thought a 66 DP could feel so…refreshing. 😉

    This summer we have clearly hit rock bottom!

    I may be able to get a decent night’s sleep and not wake up all sweaty. If so it will be the first in weeks. We will see.

    1. Philip I am hoping for a perfect nights sleep. It has been a really difficult summer for you and many and it is nice for some relief

  27. Thanks, Matt, for the blog information.

    Ah yes, bills. My electricity bill ain’t pretty, either.

    The radar loops on TV for the coming 2 days really show the pinwheel effect, with showers pinwheeling counterclockwise.

    The Orioles are truly disgraceful. I thought Duquette was a decent GM. Well, he ruined a venerable baseball club. I wish the NFL, NBA, and MLB would have relegation rules to temporarily get rid of teams mired in mediocrity like the Orioles and Padres, Browns and Jets, Kings and Suns. 2 teams with worse records get relegated to Triple A, the Canadian Football League, and the G league, respectively; each year 2 best teams in those leagues get promoted. It’ll never happen, but it does happen in European soccer and it provides for dramatic (and sometimes sad or ecstatic) ends to seasons. No tanking there by anyone. And the lower league competition is actually meaningful, not just a feeder system. And no draft rules that favor the worse teams! Ever since I returned to the U.S. I’ve never understood that one. You get punished for being good and rewarded for being bad (how un-American is that!), ostensibly for the sake of parity which in 2 of the leagues (NFL and NBA) never gets achieved, and is lacking to a degree in the MLB, too.

  28. Good morning…
    After managing only 0.60 inches yesterday, had a cell park over this area for
    a goodly amount of time this morning that dumped 2.06 inches. It was raining
    so hard it woke me up.

    Looks like the possibility of plenty more as the day wears on. We shall see.

    1. I definitely feel a difference from yesterday.

      Yesterday felt cool almost. Today’s back to oppressive and I feel the difference btwn outside and the A/C in the house.

  32. In the something to keep an eye on Tuesday. From NWS Boston/Norton
    The atmosphere will become very unstable as a 500 mb cold pool works its way eastward across the region. GFS has -12C to -13C but and even the ECMWF has cooled now to -11C. Mid level lapse rates will be favorable for convection…greater than 6C/km Have forecast likely probabilities of showers and thunderstorms in western and central sections and chance PoPs in the east. Although not outlooked for severe weather by SPC at this time, feel that the potential exists for both large hail and isolated damaging winds, especially in areas that warm up the most. Convection may linger well into the evening, with the upper low and cold pool overhead.

      1. That is a good cold pool aloft the EURO and GFS are showing to get some hail. The middle level lapse rates on the GFS are the highest of I have seen so far this summer.

  34. Goodness, I wonder how towns are faring in that flash flood warning just NNE of Boston ….. it’s been red echos lately that aren’t moving and continually regenerating.

    1. I hope people in that local area are making good driving choices when coming across flooded roadways.

      Wouldn’t surprise me if there are water rescues going on in Lynn and Peabody.

        1. I just looked at radar. That blog is just sitting and getting bigger…or that’s what it looks like to me

          1. Yes. It’s fanning out to the NW, N and NE, so the inflow ( lift) at the bottom, where the rain is heaviest, must be tremendous.

            Almost looks like an inverted trof that we talk a lot about during winter.

    2. that is what went through my area about
      6:30 am, except it slowly moved through and did jot stay forever.

  35. Son is at a friends house on an island off of Portland. I haven’t talked with him but it seems they had pretty good weather

  37. Hopefully Lynn is seeing the rain end, but the south side of Peabody is still in it.

    Pictures on eric fishers twitter account show cars with waters up to the hoods.

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