Friday Forecast

162 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)
A few changes on today’s forecast, which in the short term has been giving me headaches, as well as in the medium term. Such is the way of trying to see ahead. Today and Saturday a disturbance crosses the region, sending its warm from through today with a band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms later in the day to early evening. At the moment I am not overly concerned about any severe weather. The cold front portion of this disturbance will cross the region during Saturday with another couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but with a drying trend from the northwest later in the day. This front never gets that far south and although we do get some drier and somewhat cooler air from Canada for the end of the weekend and start of next week, it’s not going to be accompanied by bright blue skies and sunshine each of those days. Clouds will hang around due to the closer proximity of the front including a weak wave of low pressure moving along it, that keeps a shower threat near the South Coast at times, and as the front tries to advance back northeastward as a warm front later Tuesday there may end up being the threat of showers in more of the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Most sun this morning. Least sun this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west to east mid afternoon through early evening. Highs 76-84. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers favoring eastern areas early. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring central MA and eastern CT to RI overnight. Lows 64-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with the chance decreasing from northwest to southeast later in the day. Highs 75-83. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Highs 70-77. Wind light NE.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible favoring the South Coast. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible, especially later in the day. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)
A quick shot of warm/humid air August 22 but with a shower/thunderstorm risk. Drier but warm August 23. Shower risk with increasing humidity August 24. Warm to hot and humid August 25-26 weekend with isolated showers/thunderstorms as the Bermuda High regains control.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)
The last several days of the month look warm to hot at times, humid, with occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though limited.

162 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK. Great update.

    I received my possible severe weather in my area warning from MyRadarPro. Love this app. Birds are a bit more animated than usual this morning. Not sure if it is the morning air being a bit cooler or that they sense a weather change. They were interesting to watch. Except for my little hummer who has now taken to positioning himself outside my slider and “yelling” at me for not filling his feeder. It was being attacked by wasps who were then starting to build nearby nests. This morning he hovered in from of me as I sat on the deck. So I’m making more nectar and will deal with wasps 😉

    1. It’s good to make your hummingbird happy, Vicki. I have only seen one or two through the years; only in Framingham, ‘though. They are beautiful birds. But please be careful w/those wasps. We had wasp problems in Framingham; even a wasp nest right out our window.

        1. I did move it but had the same problem. Got a new feeder and will try again in a fourth place. I think I saw a handful of hummers in Framingham. There are tons here. I enjoy them along with our bluebirds. Their babies just left the nest and I keep watching for more to inhabit it. Not weather related but nature related. A photographer in town who is amazing has photographed her bluebirds through their second group of babies. The older babies actually return to help feed the new ones.

          1. I have never seen a bluebird. You are lucky to live where there are so many different birds. And I think I know who that photographer might be as I saw her beautiful pictures when I was on FB. Is she the same person?

  5. I have been fascinated by the weather since I was 10 or 11 years old and up until the past few years I always found (or thought) that when a warm front came through, especially during the early/mid-spring we would tend to get severe weather. Then, as the summer came on after that it was mainly cold fronts that brought on strong thunderstorms. And back-door cold fronts seemed to come through with not much rain just gusty winds and dark clouds. Someone might have addressed this already, but why are warm fronts coming through with the potential of severe weather? Has it always been that way?

    1. May be answering my own question – but if a trough or Low Pressure area is attached to the warm front that could set off storms?

    2. Honestly, I think it has always been that way. Sometimes our memories
      play tricks on us.

      I do remember a number of years ago, a warm front thunderstorm
      nearly rocked our house off of its foundation, it was so vicious. Our poor
      dog was shaking inconsolably, as much as I held it and tried.

      1. So scary – for your dog and for you. On a few occasions, with the cats we have had, very loud thunder has scared them.

        1. One time when we weren’t home, a wicked storm developed right over the city while my son was home
          with the dog. The poor dog vomited all over the place it was so scared.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK for the update.

    It sure looks like another severe weather threat down the tubes.

    So far, I am not impressed in the least. Some model teases, but in the end
    Mother Nature wins out.

    Btw, Dew point low this morning at my house was 59. Front came through
    around 8 ish last evening give or take. By the time I left the house, dp had already
    risen to 63. In the vicinity of the front I would imagine.

    Surface analysis at 6:30 AM this morning.

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

  7. I checked my weather station charts which tell me in the last 31 days Sutton has had six days of 90 or over. (JPD – I can only see charts for last 31 days. Not sure how to find out how many 90+ for summer)

    Since the station went live (6/18/18)

    Temp high 99 7/1
    Temp low 45 6/26
    DP hi 79 7/3
    DP low 41 6/25
    Heat index high 113 7/3

    1. Ho Hum. What else is now. It literally takes an act of God to
      get a good storm in the city. It happens, but it is rather rare.

      I have lived in the city for for nearly 50 years and I can honestly say
      that I have NEVER EVER seen a thunderstorm with winds over the
      severe limit of 58 mph. I have seen severe hail (a couple of years ago) and
      severe vicious lightning. I certainly have seen a few really vicious storms, but
      I can count them on one hand over the 50 years.

      It is really tough to get the right conditions in the city.

      Storms moving in from the West almost always either die or weaken
      considerably. Need perfect warm front conditions OR need the storms
      to develop right over the city or “just” to the West so they don’t die.

      I don’t expect much of anything today or tomorrow and any thunderstorm
      we manage will be “Garden Variety” or less. 😀

  9. Its the western parts of CT and MA that could get one of those isolated strong to severe storm today.

    1. Out there is a different world altogether. That would not surprise me.

      I watched our local channel 5 last night because Eric is on vacation
      and I refuse to watch Pamela Gardner. She has the worst presentation
      on the planet. I have no idea why she is still employed. In any case,
      Harvey wasn’t on and it was A.J. Burnett. That’s OK, because he’s pretty
      damn good in his own right.

      Any way, he was talking about the possibility of a spin-up tornado out
      that way.

  10. When the SREF shows a highlighted area then I pay attention a little more closely since that model does a good job at picking up on areas where a possible tornado can form.

  11. Hummingbirds are awesome, have a feeder my self as well as plants that attract them, I wish it attracted the honeybees not wasps as wasps are jerks, they kill honey bees

  13. If it was anyone else taking Eric’s place during evenings I wouldn’t even mention this, but does Eric seem to take more time off than the other chief mets? Yes, I am probably nit picking. Just thinking out loud more than anything else.

    1. My wife and I have had this conversation a couple of times.

      My wife’s theory is that there is extra vacation time built into his
      contract, perhaps in lieu of $$$ that the station did not want to pay out.
      Thus a satisfactory solution was reached to get him on board. Just a theory, but good as any I suppose.

  14. On the slow boat to Nantucket, just a 36 hour trip. Got invited to a get-together last minute, and I can crash after the party at a friend’s house.

    I think Nantucket will be spared any stormy weather. The pattern this summer has generally spared the coast and certainly the islands of a lot of rain and stormy weather, although last week the Cape got nailed with lots of rain. But not as much as India:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-45216671

    3. First summer in like 10 years I have not gone down to the cape, first time I won’t be going to Nantucket in 5 years love that place. I like that ice cream place right off the dock

  15. I’m not sure is coastal areas and SE Mass are ever going to get into dry air starting Sunday.

    This a function of the well above average SST.

    To be sure, the low – mid 70s air temps will feel nice and cool, however, I think Logan and SE Mass locations will struggle to get accompanying dewpoints under 63 to 65 with an onshore flow.

    Inland by a few dozen miles, probably a different story, with a better chance of getting 50s dewpoints Sunday and Monday.

    1. I’m looking forward to dewpoints in the single digits, but I know I’ll have to wait a while for that. Hey, Christmas is only 4 months away, Thanksgiving 3 months, and Halloween a little more than 2 months. Surely, the dewpoints will have dropped by then.

  16. When we had that overnight severe weather back in February 2016 those dew points were 60 plus. Those thunderstorms that rolled through that night would be impressive during summer but to have that in the winter even more impressive.

  18. Tom stepping outside I could feel those high dewpoint values where I am. Hazy sky sun has been out which is further destabilizing the atmosphere. Now its wait and see if anything develops.

    1. Indeed !

      I’m peaking at the 12z GFS for tomorrow

      At hr 30 (1 or 2 pm tomorrow) I see……

      75F dewpoints, decent Cape, a sfc cold front overhead and a bit of a 500 mb feature nearby …..

      What do you think of tstorm chances tomorrow ?

    1. Thanks JJ !

      I think tomorrow might be interesting too. It feels like the trend the last 48 hrs has been to slow down the frontal passage, to allow daytime heating. We’ll see.

  22. Don’t know what the dewpoint is on Nantucket, but it feels about as humid and sultry as it can be. It’s also quite warm. The cicada’s love it. I hear them strumming away. I’m going to have rent a yacht and head in a northeasterly direction and maybe after 300 miles of sailing it’ll feel coolish.

  24. Special Weather Statement just released for the potential severe weather later today with the best chance to see severe weather western central MA northern CT and northwest RI between 4pm – midnight with damaging winds main threat low threat of isolated tornado.

    1. Well, I guess that means me. Just love those storms in the night when there is a threat of a tornado.

      1. Not a tornado, but seeing a tstorm may be before tonight.

        Cells popping now in western mass and down on Long Island.

        1. Tom you mentioned that storm on Long Island currently a special marine statement for that storm heading into Long Island Sound 30knots of wind with that storm.

        2. Been watching those, Tom. Thank you. They are moving along at a good clip.

          Question. Will the haze from the fires keep the sun from destabilizing the atmosphere as much as it normally would?

          1. Good question.

            I think smoke can do that in some cases ….

            I think there’s enough heat and in this particular, more than enough humidity with the warm front serving to assist to do the trick.

  26. Just came in. Robust sea breeze out there. Robust East wind even at home at
    this hour??? Didn’t expect that and I am NOT complaining. Holding temp at
    82.

      1. Yes, you did say that didn’t you?
        Watching the Mets last night, I expected the warm front to
        lift Northward, leaving a SW here.

        Whenever I say didn’t expect, it NEVER means you OR shall I say
        RARELY means you. 😀

  28. Heading north in a sailboat up Buzzards Bay on Monday, and hoping for a favorable wind direction. Anyone seeing anything windwise NOT out of the north for Monday? Hoping for any other direction…

    Thanks?

    1. I’m not familiar with the small scale wind behavior in Buzzards Bay ….

      With that said, I think the wind is supposed to be NE or ENE Monday.

      Hopefully, TK will chime in.

  29. First strong thunderstorm of the day in SNE for northern Worcester eastern Franklin counties. Storm with 40mph winds heavy rain cloud to ground lightning according to special weather statement on this storm.

    1. Kind of almost if not exactly where the slight risk area is. Funny how that
      works, isn’t it?????
      😀 😀 😀

  31. I was thinking a watch wasn’t going to be issued today due to the isolated nature of the thunderstorms. Some areas in that slight risk could get a nasty storm later.

  32. I could confirm that where I am with the sunshine. A short period of time there were clouds but for most part its been sunny where I am. Showers earlier missed my area so no energy was zapped.

  35. Severe thunderstorm watch hoisted for western areas.

    Strong cell near Lowell.

    Small cell popping just west of Boston.

    Don’t think Boston has seen its high temp for day yet, perhaps 7 or 8 pm tonight.

  36. TK – Regarding airmasses, do tropical airmasses visit NE more often in the winter than Canadian airmasses in the summer?

    By my count, only one Canadian all summer, and that was back in June. 😉

  38. Hey, We actually got into the decent rain from that cell that
    was SW of the city and it actually moved in here. Raining pretty had.

    0.11 inch so far.

  41. Something is hooey with my weather station but we have a decent ESE wind from my observation. Blue sky now. But cells that pop west and SW of us seem to be struggling

  43. So,far seems north of areas mentioned. At night that surely works for me if there is ANY chance of rotation

  44. 2nd cell to come through only dropped 0.06 inch, but the lightning was awesome.
    Some really good ones.

  49. This weather is beautiful. I understand we only receive a few great days. Today was one of them beautiful days.

    1. Dude or dudette I have no idea where you get your info from but 1) we have far more that “a few good days” per year and 2) you depend on word of mouth for a lot of info! Do some research. 😉

        1. Other than being quite sick, no. It was a great day. My reply was legit. 🙂 But the statement about only receiving a few great days was so far off I actually laughed out loud. 🙂

    1. Absolutely Awesome. And welcome. I figured how to play on my new music compment and listened twice. Full blast. And then it went right into my newest favorite Forever Country…Artists from then and now….beautiful people

      I do hope Ms Franklin has found peace. But I also hope she is kicking up a fair amount of cloud dust with her music

  51. Interesting. As the line of storms in the front… east…falls apart, another line develops behind but wayyy our in New York

      1. The thunder has me somewhat energized. And just opening the slider and setting off the alarm did the rest. Security individual said she is enjoying the storm also

  56. Checking in. Ho Hum…..I see a slug of raining heading in with a few lightning
    strikes. We’ll see if they ever make it here. 😀

  58. Nah, I is here.

    last night’s convection show complete fizzled upon arrival here, as expected.
    It managed a whopping 0.03 inch upon us.

    Totals:

    Yesterday: 0.23 inch
    Overnight: 0.03 inch
    Total: 0.26 inch

    Today promises more. We shall see.

    1. Good morning JPD….It was relatively benign here also. Some good lightning and a bit of thunder.

      We had 0.10 rain. Wet out there today.

  63. Here us the latest from the NWS

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    * Potential for strong thunderstorms which may produce localized
    flooding and gusty winds from midday through early evening *

    7 AM update…

    Cluster of t-storms over the waters well south of New Eng,
    otherwise just a few showers moving through SNE this morning.
    Main focus for a broken line of showers/t-storms will be this
    afternoon into evening along the cold front. Multiple hi-res
    guidance sources show a broken line of convection moving south
    across the region 18-00z and holding together all the way to the
    south coast by this evening. CAPES will be 1000-2000 J/kg this
    afternoon with marginal 0-6 km shear 25-30 kt. Given the
    moderate instability, this should be enough for a few strong to
    marginally severe storms. In addition, with PWATs near 2 inches,
    heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern.

    The front should reach near the S coast by this evening. Will
    be another sultry day with dewpoints in the 70s and high temps
    ranging from around 80 across NW Mass to the mid 80s across
    portions of N CT/RI/SE Mass.

  64. Between chasing on the way to a concert, the show itself, and then chasing after it, I was on the go for hours. It was fun but exhausting given my current condition.

    Today it’s probably going to be a storm intercept day briefly but I can’t follow the line southeast because I have a big event in Jaffrey NH later today and tonight.

    I have a feeling something else is coming up today but I can’t quite put my finger on it. 🙂

    Anyway, updating the blog shortly.

    1. Agree with JJ. What is that something else.
      Helicity seems to be on the low side today, so the only something
      would be a few Severe storms perhaps.

      it’s juicy. 76 with 71 dp here.

      1. I don’t think today’s storms will be severe by classic definition but the ones that do form could have some pretty potent lightning cores and intense rainfall rates. But today’s storms will be moving more to the southeast and a little more quickly than some of yesterday’s were moving.

          1. Crows? You mean the ones that were squawking out of control while I tried to have a relaxing coffee?

        3. Here in Edgartown Harbor on Martha’s Vineyard we had a thunderstorm a couple of hours ago. We had to leap up and close windows on the boat. The wind howled for a bit and it rained hard.

          It seems we are going to head north to Onset in Wareham tomorrow rather than Monday, and we’re anticipating a favorable current but wind on the nose with rain. So that means it will be a choppy, wet ride, and at 5-7 mph, it will take about 5 hours..,

          Hoping the forecast verifies as dryer..

  65. TK as they say in tv and radio quite the tease with your line I have a feeling something else is coming up today but I can’t quite my finger on it. Hopefully you could elaborate on that.

        2. The air mass on the way in is from Canada. And in regards to your question from yesterday about the ratio of air masses… I think it’s probably about equal.

  66. So a quick summary of my chase. I did not take any video and only a few pictures as this was kind of a double-duty trip, chasing as well as picking up a friend who happened to live along the path of the first storm I chased, before heading toward Mansfield…

    When I left Woburn the sky was an opaque grey west and northwest with rumbles of thunder. I figured that storm cluster #1 which was a pair of super cells, would pass north of Woburn but my son was home to take video if necessary. Turns out it did go north of here, but not by that far. The northern storm eventually died out but the southern storm held on in true New England supercell fashion all the way to the coast although the lightning decreased markedly toward the end of its life. I had to pick up a friend in Acton for the concert and as it turned out the southern edge of the storm was skirting right along and just north of Route 2, which was the road I was on, so I got to view it while I approached. It was right in Acton when I got there so I got a photo from just south of it of a lowering (typical of this type of storm). There was not enough rotation for this storm to acquire a tornado warning, but it was severe warned. Decent lightning show behind the lowering area but this storm did not shoot any lightning ahead of itself as these sometimes do. Here are 2 low contrast photos (due to brightness behind me) of a lowering on the southern tip of the southern storm, taken about 4:25PM Friday afternoon from the Concord / Acton line…

    #1 wide view: https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/39454229_10156639617497265_8951542354100092928_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=68d0383a405ea6b4a7941bb9d6dcf068&oe=5BEFA8D7

    #2 zoom up: https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/39408950_10156639617517265_2460544784868048896_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=01780a45821dd4fc82887ce251eb8690&oe=5BF22F0A

    Had to let this storm go due to timing and need to head toward Mansfield and also knowing I may be side chasing a bit more. Picked up friend and got on 495S and after a short while saw a tower going up. Once I got a little closer and saw the base, I knew this one was going to go, so I got off 495 and went into Hudson thinking that was the place. Nothing on radar yet, but within 5 min storm blew up right on top of me. The torrential rain core was just to my west but experienced a handful of close lightning strikes! When the storm started to move away it was time to get back on 495 but as I drove there the storm shot out several CG strikes way outside its rain area into the area the sun was back out. A little extra treat as a couple of these were not that far away from where I was. This Hudson storm was the seed of what became the storm complex that hammered Cambridge / Malden / Revere / Winthrop in the evening. Here is a distance shot of the storm when it was centered over Cambridge / Malden, taken from Wrentham Massachusetts…

    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/39320635_10156638131582265_4893584745201401856_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=d605a7cef193f800cbe9e9b0f6163748&oe=5BFACF50

    After that it was onto the concert, which was awesome. During this time is when all the action was going on in far western New England and northern New England. By the time the concert was getting over the Counting Crows were performing “Rain King” as the encore, a few drops of rain started to fall. Got very lucky with parking and started to exit before the song finished, was one of the first to exit with under 5 min to get out of the lot (yes, at Mansfield, timing is everything). During the drive home I was able to observe the cluster of activity moving in from the W including 3 distinctive lightning areas. Most of what I saw were just flashes as the bolts were obscured from my view, but the northern cell was producing crawlers a couple of which I partially saw. The final western storm gave me a show as it passed to my north just after I got home. 🙂

  67. Ok updating now…
    Very low energy morning, but purposely crawling along because I’ll be in Jaffrey NH for several hours later.

  69. Thanks TK. Really enjoyed reading on your chase adventure from yesterday!

    We had a pretty good downpour (no thunder) here in Albany this morning. There was a little bit of training motion in the cells as well so it was coming down hard for a good half hour or so even though the line was quite narrow across. I think that will foreshadow the action in SNE today- greatest threat is likely the heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding given marginal shear but high PWATs and decent instability. A strong to severe storm or two with some gusty winds isn’t out of the question though.

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