Monday Forecast

66 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)
The cooler interlude has 2 more days to go, then a warm front brings showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday, returning the humidity to the region. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with a few showers/thunderstorms and that will be the one humid day of this week. Though it will be warmer Thursday and Friday than today and Tuesday, somewhat drier air will again return to the region. The only change from yesterday’s forecast is to add the risk of an isolated shower Thursday as a disturbance crosses the region behind the cold front from the day before. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight risk of a South Coast shower. Highs 68-76, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-76, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a slight risk of a thunderstorm especially after midnight. Increasingly humid. Lows 62-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely early, then isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-86. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)
During this period a transition back to a hotter pattern will take place as high pressure ridges from the Midwest and the eastern Atlantic merge. Though we will see more humidity again, at the moment it doesn’t look like it will be as oppressive as recent days have been. Rain chances will be more limited overall, but cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms at times as a couple disturbances get close to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
Current indications are for a hot end of August and start of September, with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities as high pressure dominates.

66 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. I figured it wouldn’t take long once I had my computer up and running and could search.

    I found your time frame for a bit of cooler air, TK. I am just about positive this was the second time you gave that time frame but it was nearly two weeks ago.

    Woods Hill Weather says:
    August 7, 2018 at 10:45 AM

    For those wondering when Canada may send a shot of cool dry air. Models don’t see it yet. August 18-24 window… Maybe 1 or 2 days in there.

    vicki says:
    August 7, 2018 at 10:54 AM

    I am betting on August 19….put it on your calendar 🙂

  5. Tornad0 Ted is alive and well at the Norton NWS office. Have a look:

    GFS is slower than NAM,GEM, and ECMWF in developing
    thunderstorms. The 3km NAM shows some strong thunderstorms
    developing along and ahead the warm front, mainly south of the
    Mass Pike, late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Upper
    level winds will be strong enough…on order of 40 kt at 500
    mb…to support potentially severe convection. Localized wind
    damage/flash flooding are main threats but with low LCLs and
    moderately high shear, we will have to keep a close eye out for
    an isolated short-lived tornado , too, mainly south of the Mass
    Pike toward daybreak Wednesday.

    1. Still not buying that at the moment. I know it needs to be monitored, but
      so far, Radar Sims do not match up with the severe parameters.
      The 3KM NAM shows a tornado threat in the soundings for 17Z in the boston area. The only problem is, all of the convection is long gone by then.

      There is something severely lacking in these models. Why show a tornado
      threat when there is nothing there to cause the needed convection?
      I just don’t get it. There needs to be a connection there.

      1. I absolutely believe IF there is a threat that it should be mentioned. However, I agree with you….if there is no indication yet that there might be a tornado threat, people will become complacent. Not a good thing.

  6. JPD – how is Mrs. OS doing in the more comfortable air mass? Can she recoup fairly quickly or does it take a while?

    1. Thank you. Not well as she has other issues as well.
      Didn’t get out of the house the entire weekend.
      The house is now comfortably cool. Hopefully things will improve.

  9. 12Z 3KM NAM is in.

    Sounding near boston for 15Z Wednesday AM shows tornado threat.

    https://imgur.com/a/MTptqw4

    however, simulated radar for the same time shows ZILCH!!

    https://imgur.com/a/MTptqw4

    So, I ask again. How can a model show a Tornado threat when the very same model
    says there will be NO convective activity at all for the exact time it is showing
    a tornado threat.

    SOMETHING WRONG here!()*(@*(@*()!*@*(!*(@*!(!@*!

    What I find myself doing now is matching a threat with the convection. IF they
    match up, then I become concerned.

    1. Sorry, both images are in each link as it is the very same link. I forgot I
      put them in the same link. Sorry about that, but it is there!

    2. Because the atmosphere can still be favorable to produce one even if there is no way to make it happen (storm).

  13. Thanks TK !

    Put some time into my classroom today. Got some of the boards covered and put up posters. A few more boards to go.

    Room A/C broken, so off to Walmart’s to find a cheap, hopefully, window unit.

      1. Excellent SSK !

        I will look into that. It was your post about a week ago on this that had me thinking about this. Many thanks !!

        1. I don’t think you will be able to find one in store . I think a 5,00 unit would handle the room . Just make sure to measure the classroom window . Don’t those windows only pull down half way Tom

        2. in my opinion, the Bermuda High pattern has been great, Good beach and boat weather, great for field research activities. It makes the coasts in the 70s and 80s instead of the 50s and 60s.

          1. Let’s see what you think 50+ years from now when you’re a senior citizen, if not at middle age. 😉

  14. 12z GFS looks like a better run, if indeed, the last week of August into early September looks to end up hot. Pretty much has the ridge intact in the east during this time period. Previous runs had occasional dips in the jet stream in the east.

    1. 12z Euro follows suit today, building a 591 dm ridge from days 8 thru 10.

      Widespread 18c (850 mb) temps.

      If it’s window units you have for A/C, don’t let the comfortable weather this week make you think it’s time to take them out.

  15. Summer never goes quietly and even when the calendar fall comes we always get one last blast of heat or humidity. To me once you get past September 10th the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power like it does during June through August.

  17. Quiet tropics in the Atlantic, but not so in the Pacific. In addition to Hurricane Lane potentially preparing for a close brush with Hawaii, there is Typhoon Soulik in the west Pacific taking aim at southern Japan and Korea. The satellite loop of that storm today has been spectacular. It has an enormous eye, not uncommon for typhoons in this region but particularly pronounced and impressive in this case. Almost a hypnotic quality to watching the loop…

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

    (The state of Rhode Island would fit in that eye with room to spare.)

    1. Maybe it will heat up in Atlantic next week. Remember, some of Macs family is down south ….. 😉

  18. I haven’t been too impressed with the severe weather setup for late tomorrow night. However, it does have some interesting aspects to it. Low level shear will be very strong, and the jet dynamics are impressive both at upper and lower levels. Plenty of moisture as well as the warm front moves in. However, this may be a case where there’s just not enough surface instability. You don’t need much, but you do need a little. The afternoon NWS discussion provides a good summary of the factors in play.

    Really, it’s about time one of these low CAPE/high shear setups actually didn’t produce something. But you always have to watch them. Wednesday marks the 2 year anniversary of the Concord, MA tornado, which took place around 3AM in a similar environment to what we’ll see tomorrow night. That looks to be right about the target time window this go around as well, perhaps a little more towards daybreak this time.

  20. Thank you, TK.

    Thank you, Tom, for the warning on the upcoming heat. My only consolation is that it’ll likely be the last lengthy period of heat this year.

    I like my Bermuda’s short.

    I cooled off watching a short video of a March 26 blizzard in Sconset on Nantucket. Because I hear a Scandinavian language or German in the background I’m assuming the video was taken by a Scandinavian or German.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD6LQJ-x4dU

    Here’s a link to weather info on that powerful storm which produced 82mph winds on Nantucket.

    https://www.weatherworksinc.com/march-25-26-blizzard-2

    You know you love winter when you’d like to be able to transport yourself in time and space and experience that blizzard. Almost every day this summer I was imagining transporting myself in time and space to that blizzard. Alas, imagination is not reality.

      1. Well at least that’s up around 11000 feet. The forecast for both Anchorage and Fairbanks have rain and temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s….whew!! LOL.

      2. Matt, thank you! That’s an awesome forecast. Somehow that forecast will enter my subconscious and I will dream about it. At least, that’s what I hope will happen.

  22. I came across this tweet that Barry posted back prior to the second March Noreaster this year. I hope we see these tweets a couple a times this coming winter.
    OMG! Early New Model Runs Now Indicating A High Impact Crushing Nor’Easter On Tuesday! I Await Arrival Of Fresh Guidance From Other Reliable Sources Before Pulling Out All The Stops. IF This Initial Data Verifies, More Than A Foot Of Snow Is Plausible! #wbz

  23. I would like to see a tweet like that just prior to Christmas Dec. 20 -22 time period so will have a White Christmas and people will be able to get to their destinations on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

    2. Yes, indeed. I do recall that on Christmas Day last year it snowed really hard for about 90 minutes in Boston. Enough to whiten things up. The big freeze followed for about two weeks.

      Many years ago my mother bought a sign that says “Snowbound.” When the old house was sold, I asked whether I could have it and she said yes. The sign adorns the entrance to my apartment. My idea of heaven is being snowbound.

      1. Funny thing. I completely forgot it snowed last Christmas. Makes me think that as much as I love snow on Christmas that I love family more

        And Joshua….I’d love a snowbound sign. It is incredibly special that you have yours

  25. The snow on Christmas Day last year was great where I was. Started snowing 5am ended 9am. Got four inches and people were able to get to their destinations.

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