Tuesday Forecast

40 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)
Easterly air flow for one more day, keeping clouds dominant today. Warm front passes through from southwest to northeast tonight and early Wednesday when the most numerous showers and possible storms will occur, then wet get into the muggy air for several hours Wednesday between it and an approaching cold front, which means scattered to isolated shower and thunderstorm activity though I suspect any given location will probably have several rain-free hours. We will have to watch any storms as they could be strong. A shot of cooler, drier air follows the cold front and we enjoy that Thursday before a warm-up follows. Still not ruling out an isolated shower or storm Thursday as an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight from southwest to northeast. Increasingly humid. Lows 62-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms early morning, then partly sunny with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms remainder of day. Humid. Highs 77-85, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early, favoring eastern areas. Lowering humidity. Lows 60-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun to clouds. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SATURDAY: Clouds to sun. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)
Summer pattern dominates with high pressure in general control, but surface boundaries and energy from the jet stream not too far to the north can help trigger showers and thunderstorms a few times during this period as well.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
General pattern remains the same but will have to watch for a quick cooler interlude of high pressure moving across Canada noses southward far enough.

40 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK. WHW is always my first stop in the morning! Your time and effort are much appreciated.

  3. Question for TK or anyone who can help. How is the weather for early evening in Providence? Daughter and family arrive at PVD around 5:30.

    Thank you!

    2. NWS discussion from about an hour ago looks fine

      .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

      7 am update…

      Stout, dry inversion up around 2500 feet beneath which E flow off
      the maritimes has allowed moisture to pool beneath. Scattered to
      broken cloud decks in where in areas of greater clearing raditional
      cooling has been allowed to proceed and locally dense fog has developed,
      whereas all other locations are beneath the low cloud deck, in some
      instances a few hundred feet off the ground especially S/E coastal.

      Expecting low cloud conditions to persist most of the morning, becoming
      scattered into the afternoon hours allow a few peeks of afternoon
      sunshine. As the prior forecaster noted, 1020 mb maritime high pressure
      remains anchored into New England ushering stable, relatively cool
      maritime air over the region, limiting mixing, making it difficult
      to mix out and modify the boundary layer.

      Cooler than normal temps today with highs restricted to about 70-75,
      except upper 70s across the CT river valley given increasing distance
      from the cooling northeast flow off the ocean. These temps are cooler
      than normal as the average high for late August is around 80 degs.
      Dry weather prevails today the only exception may be brief spotty
      drizzle this morning near the coastline of southeast MA especially
      Cape Cod and the Islands.

  6. NWS still has a concern about “Rotating Thunderstorms” late tonight into tomorrow

    Other concern is as warm front approaches low level shear will be
    increasing as strengthening low level jet moves across the area.
    This increasing low level shear vicinity of approaching warm front
    combined with high surface dew pts (rising into the low 70s south
    coast) and low LCLs there is a concern for rotating T-storms.
    However one limiting factor regarding severe weather is marginal
    instability with all guidance sources limiting MU Capes to less than
    500 j/kg by 12z Wed. However will just have to watch how this system
    evolves. As of now forecast confidence is higher regarding heavy
    rain/flood threat than severe storms.

    1. Could potentially be either, but I’d put my money on the PM based
      on what I have seen. I could be dead wrong on that. 😀

  11. From the hazardous weather outlook for tomorrow for the region given by NWS Boston/Norton.
    Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms are forecast for early Wednesday morning. The main threat being localized street flooding for the AM commute.But in addition, a low risk exists for an isolated, embedded severe thunderstorm. Potential threats for a damaging wind gust or two as well as a brief tornado. Embedded, isolated severe weather threats continue into the early morning hours, clearing out towards midday. strong to severe thunderstorms emerging, there are the threats of Behind this weather, renewed thunderstorm activity is possible. A few locally strong to damaging winds and brief heavy rain / localized street flooding.

  13. Hurricane Lane looks increasingly likely to bring direct impacts to Hawaii. It’s a very impressive storm with winds of 150mph, not far from category 5 intensity.

    Hurricane impacts to Hawaii are very much analogous to hurricane impacts on New England. They happen, but very rarely, especially major hurricanes. You have to go back to Iniki in 1992 for the last big one, and there’s a lot of spacing between others before then as well. Increasing wind shear should hopefully start to weaken Lane soon, especially as it gets closer to the islands, but significant impacts are becoming more likely. The GFS has absolutely crushed the Euro on the forecasts for this, FWIW.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14E/14E_floater.html

    http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

    1. Thanks WX Watcher. Experimental GFS or the regular one? I haven’t had a chance to look recently.

      1. The regular, believe it or not. Experimental has been better than the Euro, but not as good as the current operational.

        This is only one storm of course so it doesn’t “prove” anything about the models, but it’s gaining attention in this case because the GFS/Euro forecasts for Lane had been so extremely different. Euro did not have it coming anywhere near Hawaii as little as two days ago, and has gradually trended to the GFS, which has been consistent in calling for direct impacts. It’s really caught the CPHC off guard as well, as their long term forecast reasoning had consistently favored the Euro.

    2. That would sure seem to pose a serious problem for Hawaii if it maintains the 150 mph. Thank you, WxWatcher.

  14. No changes for tomorrow with the latest update from the SPC which keeps a good chunk of SNE in a marginal risk for severe weather.

    1. OMG, that is just so IRRESPONSIBLE!!!!
      I can’t get over that one!!

      Armageddon IS here! RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!!

      1. It really is awful. I won’t fault our local mets as you know because I understand that they have pressures that are, for the most part, not seen. But good heavens….

        And really, this is a case of faulting people for reading this nonsense. How many times can the Patch be wrong before you figure out that all they do is sensationalize.

      2. I gave them a piece of my mind. I’m certainly not speaking from expertise….just simple common sense. Or I hope that is what it is.

  16. Although the latest HRRR shows some nice showers tomorrow AM

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018082117/018/refcmp.us_ne.png

    The Surface based CAPE is 0 joules
    Elevated CAPE is at about 200 joules

    That is highly likely NOT enough to produce a HSLC (High shear/low Cape) severe weather event. In fact HRRR sounding shows NO THREAT of any severe of any kind.
    Just some heavy rain.

    This is the the morning. As I have felt for a while, IF there is to be severe, it is
    likely to be PM.

    CAVEAT, there is enough shear,so IF the model is incorrect and there is just
    enough instability to get a decent storm going, then it could easily rotate and then…

  17. Not liking the Red Sox mini swoon. Why? They’re up against a playoff team and they look over-matched on every level, including coaching. I realize that they don’t match up well against the Indians or Astros, but those are the kinds of teams they’ll face. Great pitching stops good hitting. The Sox don’t have enough of the former, and their good hitters can’t rake against the better pitchers. Also, Sale’s injury is a real concern. And, they’re giving the Yankees life and hope. An 8 game lead on August 21st is a nice cushion, but no guarantee. In fact, my mind often wanders back to previous Sox collapses in which they had leads of 8 games or more in late August and it’s not a pretty picture: 1974, 1978, 2011. If history is any indicator, teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, and A’s finish strong (it’s remarkable how these 3 teams have tended to finish strong for as long as I can remember; at the same time, all 3 teams tend to be mediocre in April). The Red Sox, on the other hand, are not a strong finisher historically, but tend to be a strong starter. There have of course been exceptions.

    1. The only thing that concerns me about what you said is Sale.
      I am very very very concerned about that.

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