74 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

1. Thank you TK. I never mind a rainy day.

   1. Me neither, but this will be only a partly rainy day. And the timing is perfect for me. Heading to a water park end of morning and we only face a threat of a passing downpour early afternoon, otherwise it should be splendid. 🙂

      1. Awesome. How are you feeling?

         1. Well, I’m not great but the condition is oddly more quiet this morning than it has been any recent one. I will manage today.

            1. Positive thoughts for you

2. Thank you sir!!

3. Good morning and thank TK for the update
   Looks like rain delivered. 0.43 inch at my house as of a few minutes ago. sone nice downpours.

4. Thanks TK !

   Couple of 20c contours (850 mb temps) sitting over southern New England on the EURO. I think it’s hours 144 and 168

   Potentially very hot days.

   1. Hrs 168 and 192.

      Hr 144 isn’t too much less hot with projected 18c temps at 850.

5. Thanks TK. I think it’s fair to call today a transition day, as we kick out the prevailing humid and unsettled pattern of the past several weeks and bring in a warm, dry pattern. After today we’re dry through the weekend, and from there the shower/t-storm risk starts to return but not to the extent we’ve seen recently, and lower humidity overall as well. We may add a couple more 90 degree days before the end of the month as the heat gradually builds. With more of a west-northwesterly flow aloft, we do also have to watch for one or two chances of a severe weather event in the form of an MCS.

   Even going into September, I don’t see the warm pattern breaking down. The ridge may nudge west enough near the turn of the month to allow a cooler shot of air, but the prevailing pattern doesn’t look to change, and I would bet on a warm September overall.

6. Thanks TK
   WXWatcher I believe meteorologist John Homenuk in this tweet kind of echoing what you said about having to watch for a couple severe weather threats.
   https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1032231269768290304

7. Quick change of plans. Heading to the beach for the afternoon and evening, somewhere in Gloucester then up to Hampton. Water Country decided not to open because “it’s raining today”. I’m pretty sure they consulted a weather app for the forecast too. 🙂 They’ll miss out on a muggy largely and possibly completely rain-free midday and afternoon of business.

   Anyway at least there won’t be anyone at the beach when I get there. 🙂

   1. Enjoy.

   2. Well yea….you wouldn’t want to get wet when there

8. Torrential downpour right now in Albany. Thinking this is the line associated with the cold front which may become the line or broken line of showers and storms that will sweep through SNE later today. Very fast moving.

9. DP up to 68 at Logan and 70 at Norwood. Safe to say the warm front is in the vicinity
   or actually through already. Either way, very close.

10. Dp now 70 at Logan and 72 at Norwood.

11. Sept 9, 2016 : 93F
    Sept 8, 2015 : 96F
    Sept 2, 2014 : 93F
    Sept 11, 2013 : 97F
    Sept 2, 2010 : 95F
    Sept 20, 1983 : 97F

    Listing some of these recent occurrences of mid 90s or higher temps. Had to list 1983, considering how often we have referred to it this summer.

    The late August thru mid September sun angle, combined with a very warm airmass can still result in some very hot days.

    I was a bit surprised to see on a few 7 day forecasts 91 and 93F for early next week, given the 20c contours overhead on the Euro. I wonder, if the 20c verifies, if projections of 91 and 93F may end up being too low ??

12. Thank you TK!

    Any idea on timing for any storms in the Kingston area today? Of course I realize we may not see anything but just trying to figure out a game plan for football practice which is scheduled for 5-7.

13. Thanks TK. Quick .27 of rain this am.

14. It’s hard to believe that the first day of fall is exactly one month from today. I bet it will feel just like it is now, if not worse.

    1. Don’t think so. Even warm days in mid to late September – and we certainly can have them – feel different. They’re almost always less humid and the brunt of the heat has a much narrower window, given the sun angle and sunlight.

15. Thank you, TK.

    I do hope you’re taking good care of your health. Sounds like you are. but, it’s rough to have multiple chronic conditions.

16. Just got a torrential downpour which looks like it is building more as it heads to the south shore. Lasted only a couple of mins and the sun came right back out.

17. And the De-stabilization is well on the way. Loads of sunshine, varying from full
    sun to partly cloudy. What storms, if any, shall we have?

    SPC has maintained marginal risk, which means just that. We shall see.

18. Band out West is marching Eastward. Meanwhile some convection well
    ahead of the main line is headed towards Plymouth. Nothing looks even remotely
    severe at this time.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.4956521739130435&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=535.1754385964912&centery=296.49122807017545&transx=135.17543859649118&transy=56.49122807017545&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25582699&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. Another look

       https://imgur.com/a/EHDodEM

19. As Jj and wxwatcher mentioned. Monday is to watch for storms.
    gfs soundings for northern mass.
    http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2018082212_126_43.5–71.5.png

    also note: never saw hail size potential that big before. 5.00 inch hail. of course that won’t happen but impressive still even if we get half of that

    1. Sure, and I’m Santa Claus. We shall see, but gives us something to monitor.
       Thanks for sharing. Haven’t even looked beyond today.

       1. you being Santa claus is more believable actually lol.
          who knows maybe Monday is the day fo watch. first time we have all three ingredients together. CAPE. SHEAE AND high Steep lapse rate. we are always missing one. now I have no idea if we have a trigger for that day or not

          1. 😀 :D:D

20. The Case of the disappearing WHW Blog. SO TK what happened?
    Good ole Word Press at it again?

    Any how, this line looks wimpy, although seems to have come to life in the
    last couple of frames. Looks dark to the West, but not ominously so.

21. Had some thunder and lightning here in Plymouth as well as a heavy downpour. Of course it started as our building was evacuated due to the fire alarms going off. 🙂

    1. Oh noooooo

22. Looks like the 12z GFS wants to give us some ridge riders for thunderstorm potential next week. Monday has the ingredients but no moisture. Its not until Thurs and Fri next week moisture gets involved with parameters favorable for strong to severe storms over westerns parts of SNE.

23. This from NWS Boston/Norton discussion for next week Low confidence forecast on precip chances next week as it depends on where the zonal flow sets up. As mentioned before, if the flow sets-up over the region, then we could be in an active pattern as several waves will push through the flow. Still a lot of uncertainty esp with the timing, strength and location of each wave.

24. Oh, the line did regenerate some as it came through. Nice little shower.

    1. Picked up another 0.11 inch for 0.54 inch on the day.

25. JpDave

    On Jamaica Plain way headed for Fenway. Another dance related performance for my youngest. Crossed that heavy shower.

    1. You came within a drive and 9 iron from my house. 😀

       Enjoy the game.

26. Love the irony in TK’s comment: “Water Country decided not to open because “it’s raining today”.”

    And then there’s Vicki’s a propos comment: “Well yea….you wouldn’t want to get wet when there.”

    No, not in water country.

    1. 😀

    2. HAHAHA!!

       Well it turned out to be an AWESOME beach day at Hampton. I’ll be there until 10PM tonight. 🙂

27. The blog outage was a server issue. Should be all set.

    1. As long as it wasn’t Charlie…..

28. TK any early thoughts on a potential active period next week NWS Boston/Norton mentions if we can get into a northwest flow?

29. to my weather geeks out there. how can we tell if when looking at a soundings if there is lifting mcmechanism with it?
    fir an instance the soundings I posted here earlier
    http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2018082212_126_43.5–71.5.png

    it shows very high Cape and instability. but how do we know If there is a lift??? we could have all the parameters in the world and it will still be a nice sunny day if nothing is providing a lift like a coldfront or a shortwave,etc. so I am wondering if there is a way to distinguish them.
    I dont know if a cold front is coming Monday or a shortwave or a trought or what not. I cant seem to find surface map for the future.
    I hope this question isnt too confusing.

    1. I think that is an outstanding question.

       I am probably not the best person to answer this, but I can give you a few places to look.

       The lazy man’s way is to simply look at simulated radar for the same time
       period. Not echoes, then there is no lift.

       Here is precip map for that time period:

       http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018082218/120/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

       Nams and HRRR when close enough will give actual sim radar.

       Another is to look at the 700MB and 500MB charts for Short waves.

       700mb for this time

       http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018082218/120/300wh_nb.na.png

       500 mb

       http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018082218/120/500wh_nb.na.png

       based on those 2 upper air charts it shows any support for lift to be
       in NNE and supported by precip chart.

       And of course you have the surface map to see if there is a front in the area.
       These may not be analyzed, but look at the 10M wind field and you can
       usually pick out the front.

       Here is the surface with 10M wind fields.

       http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018082218/120/sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

       Now I will draw where I think a front may be:

       https://imgur.com/a/8tkgrJU

       And finally I do believe there is a 7 day surface map from WPC

       Here is a link to the day in question. What I drew actually showed a trough and not a front.

       https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg

       1. Wow Jpd dave. thank you very much for all the helpful information! good analysis. I guess I am not as excited anymore. I wish if the soundings had like a section where it indicates if there is a Lift or not.

          1. The surface trough depicted could actually be a focus for lift and precip. depends on moisture etc. check 850 to see if toughiness reaches higher up as well.

30. I have seen over the past couple years you could have a lot of instability but its too warm aloft that a cap forms and thunderstorms can’t form. What you want to see is a trigger to act on the instability. I believe there was a day this summer there were CAPE values 3,000 to 4,000 which is high for New England but no trigger. Had we had the trigger it would have been an active weather day.

31. It looks like one or more tropical disturbances will soon bounce of the African coast.

    1. It’s time. My kids are all back from their trips south. 😉

32. The Sox look dead in the water. It’s like they’re waterlogged from the half inch of rain we got. Can’t hit. Can’t run. Can’t pitch. Not good. Peaked too soon, or so it seems. The overall record may say the Red Sox are better than the Indians, but my eyes aren’t deceiving me. At this point in the season the Indians are better than the Red Sox. Uggh! It’s only sports, but when it comes to my beloved Sox and Bruins it’s more than just sports (I don’t really care about the other two teams – nice if they win, but I’m never emotionally invested in football or basketball).

    1. Don’t get too down. They’ll be ok, but they are destined to allow the Yankees to get too close for comfort.

33. The Yankees have a real soft schedule until they go out to the west coast to play Oakland on Labor Day for the start of three then to Seattle.

    1. True. But to me the schedule is what it is. Soft or not, you have to win games. The Yankees for some reason have had trouble with a Triple A club named the Orioles. Makes no sense, but that’s baseball for you. The Red Sox have had trouble with another mediocre club, though not quite Triple A, the White Sox.

       My concern is that the Red Sox will not match up well against the team they will likely play in the first round if they win the AL East. I don’t like any of the scenarios except the Yankees. I do think the Sox match up well against the Yankees, though it would not be easy. And with Severino and two wily veterans, Tanaka and Sabathia, they could very well beat the Sox in a short series. We’ll see.

34. I turn the TV off and then head to the kitchen to clean up, turn on the radio … bingo, Sox scored 5 runs. All that worry for nothing.

35. Sox up 6-2 as of now. I’m not convinced this is a championship team, but I wouldn’t worry about a mini-slump at this point in the season. This is actually decent timing to hit a slump so long as they get over it in the next few weeks. They’re not invincible, no team is. But they’ve established they can hang with any team, and so it just comes down to executing in the playoffs, something they haven’t done any of the past few years. The only thing that would really concern me is if the Sale injury is legit. In general I have no worries about the offense if everyone’s healthy, but a few about the pitching staff, especially Porcello and some of the middle relief guys. I single out Porcello because we really need a solid number 3 guy, and he’s been very hit or miss. Sale and Price are both aces when on their game (much as I can’t stand Price and fear he’ll implode again in October). But you need three guys who are capable of giving you a really good chance to win. I’m not certain we have that.

    Lastly… very little confidence in Kimbrel in a one run game. I don’t like what I’ve seen from him, regardless of statistics. Lack of command/control will bite you against good teams.

    1. Great comments, and I agree with all of them. Kimbrel has been a concern. Throws hard, but doesn’t have the command great closers have (think Eck, Rivera, Hoffman).

    2. Just a couple of quick items. Porcello is second behind Sale in “QS” Quality Starts (however they calc that). Kimbrel has a rough go of it in August..no doubt but before that he had excellent stats before that (even in May when he had an ERA slightly above 3..he was used 14 times i May). My real concern with Kimbrel has been with his walks. He has 17 walks in June, July and August (25 appearances) compared to 6 walks in the 26 appearances before that.

       1. Sorry for the poor sentence structure in the above post…I was trying to do too many things at once 🙂

36. Also a little second guessing here (armchair managing)….But Cora should have left Johnson in…Yeah I know he was up over 80 pitches…what’s the worst he could have done? Give up a home run….oops looks like Hembree did that instead.

37. David Price postseason starting would concern me if I was a Red Sox fan. If the Yankees end up playing Red Sox and I am the Red Sox knowing how he struggles against the Yankees I am not pitching him game two. I pitch him game two and he pitches how he has in the postseason and the series is tied going back to the Bronx it will be a pressure filled game three for the Red Sox.

    1. Yeah…I hear you JJ…But at the same time the Red Sox have made the Yankees pitching staff look pretty poor this season. They seem to have Chapman’s #.

       1. And Miami just took the lead from the Yankees.

38. Lance Lynn ran out of gas. Pitched well till sixth inning. Yankees were so lucky to escape last night with win when Marlins loaded bases 9th and 11th no outs can’t score.

39. Every day this month I have gone in my pool, rain or shine, to do laps. As long as there is no lightning and the mosquito’s are not terrible, I go in the pool. If I am already going to get wet, who cares lol.

40. Red Sox win/Yankees lose…all is right with the world again! 🙂

41. I am probably reading this wrong but is the 0Z GFS at hour 300 showing a snow shower for northern most Maine?

    1. close, but a bit farther North than that.

       https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018082300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

       1. The trusty Accuweather million day outlook has a mix of snow in the North Conway area by the end of October.

42. TK and Keith-Hingham,

    you have mail. 😀

43. New post! I didn’t many any changes at all to 6-10 & 11-15. No need at this time. So they read the same as yesterday.

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