Wednesday Forecast

116 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
The heat dome retains control for one more day before a cold front puts an end to it Thursday, the transition day. Still think any strong storms will be more the exception than the rule on Thursday, but something to monitor as the front move through from northwest to southeast. A much cooler northeasterly to easterly air flow will be in control Friday and Saturday, but by Sunday we’ll already be getting into a warmer southerly air flow as the high pressure area sinks to the southeast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Hazy sun. Humid. Highs 82-90 Nantucket, 88-95 Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod, 95-102 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Hazy. Muggy. Lows 73-82. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs in the 80s to near 90.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-78. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from upper 60s to lower 70s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Labor Day Monday September 3 will be warm and humid with a shower or thunderstorm possible late in the day. High pressure dominates surface and aloft with mainly dry and warm to hot weather September 4-5 until a front gets closer and may bring a few showers and a bit of a cool down later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
High pressure dominates and the pattern of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall is expected to continue.

116 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Was down to 71 in my part of Sutton. Would not be surprised if a couple of degrees cooler toward center of town. It is quickly up to 80 and maybe 81 by the time I finish typing.

  5. Thanks TK. Looks like Logan made it down to 81F at some point between observations last night, so no tying of the all time record of 83F. We’ll see what happens tonight. Have to see how hot we get today first!

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    When TK has 102 at the top end of his range, watch out. not sure I have ever seen that.

  7. It’s 8:30 am and Logan is already up to 88!!!!!! Geez, that is awfully hot so early in the day. 100 here we come!

  8. Thanks TK
    One school district in CT closed due to the heat. A lot of schools going with an early dismissal with two districts releasing early again.

  11. Thanks TK !

    Seeing 18c (850 mb) temp contours over central and southern New England in the medium and long range.

    That’s not 20c of yesterday and today, but that’s pretty warm nonetheless.

    Today’s #19 for 90F at Logan. My nowcasting guess is they’ll end up with 23 or 24.

  12. In the office. The office is pretty warm, but barely tolerable. AC supposedly was
    just fixed, so we shall see.

    91 at Logan BEFORE 10AM! Pretty impressive!

  13. If its going to get this hot break records.
    Smart decisions for those school systems who made the decision to dismiss early.

  14. Daughter said framingham is releasing early although I don’t see it on any list. The schools there will trap the heat.

    Tom – you think four or five more 90 degree days in Boston?

    What is the record for 90 degree days? Asking for no other reason that I am curious.

      1. Thank you, JPD. Let’s not try for that. I can’t afford it. Won’t be long before I start renting out rooms 😉

    2. Yes I do Vicki.

      Today, perhaps tomorrow ….

      Then the potential is there for 3 to 4 more next week, depending on cloud cover and frontal position.

      1. BLASPHEMY! Go back into your classroom where you belong!
        BLASPHEMY!!!!)@*#)*((!)@(#)(!@#(!@(#)!(@#(!@#(_

  15. As I said early the Derby school district closed school due to the heat. I have seen early dismissals due to heat but never a school district closing due to heat.

  16. 90 and 91 degree readings showing up all over the map.
    Logan’s temp has not budged in nearly and hour.

  17. Well, Logan’s temp finally moved a tad.

    Now up to 92 with dP 72 which makes for a heat index of an even 100.

  18. Logan at 92F now; the slowing of the temperature rise is likely due in part to a wind direction shift from W to SW. Of course, it’s also natural for the temperature rise to slow a few hours after sunrise as we approach the maximum heat potential of the air mass. It’ll be a slower grind higher from here. I bet Logan tops out at 96-97F.

    1. I am thinking a tad higher as in 98, 99 or perhaps even 100. We shall see.
      Being out and about this morning downtown on Bolyston Street, I can
      say without a doubt that today is a first class STINKER!!!

      What a bleeping YUCKORAMA!!!

      Just found out that our AC is still on the blink. It works for a while
      and then shits the bed and conks out. Executives pondering what to do.

      As it stand now, staff will be arriving around Noonish.

      I “think” my office is a little more comfortable than yesterday.

  20. Thank you, TK.

    Fixed my fan early this morning. And so now I can feel the `refreshing’ circulation of hot air. Yeah!

    I hope JP Dave’s wife is doing okay. Hey, if we make it through today without heat stroke and exhaustion we can manage just about anything that the mother of summers has to offer.

    I looked up examples of El Nino Modoki winters and one sticks out as a possible analogy: 2002-2003. As I recall that summer was quite hot and humid at times. But, not as many days of 70 plus dew-points as this summer. We’re at 40, which is more than twice the average. The winter was average in terms of temperature. Above average in terms of snowfall. It produced several big storms, including a February blizzard. There were also several periods of very cold weather, but not as cold as December/January 2017/2018.

    Another El Nino Modoki was 1977-1978. We know what happened then. Note, there have been a few examples of mild and relatively snow-less winters during El Nino Modoki, but only a few.

    1. Good heavens, Joshua, I cannot even imagine. Take care, my friend!

      Friends who just sold a home with central air, moved to Maine and a home without air. To their credit, they have not complained….at least not that I have heard.

    1. Interesting. I Always use temperature and dew point.

      That 109 in clearly Wrong and the 101 is correct.

      1. Thank you, JPD. My first instinct was to use DP also. I just did humidity out of curiosity.

        Odd, though, isn’t it?

        1. Perhaps just a glitch in the calculator algorithm.
          I wonder if another site using humidity would
          render a different result?

            1. I’ve been here since before 10.
              It’s not too bad. The AC is partially working. Not as cool as it should be, but
              compared to outside, not all that bad.
              Very tolerable, imho.

              Going home for lunch in a bit and check
              on the Mrs.

  22. 2002-2003 winter had above normal snowfall with the big Presidents Day storm which is hard to believe that more snow fell for that storm in Boston than blizzard of 78. The summer of 2002 had 35 90 degree days or higher for inland CT. 1977-78 was wild with big snowstorm in January and then I believe there was a rain storm in between that snowstorm and the Blizzard of 78. The Hartford Civic Center had a roof collapse during January of that winter due to all the snow that fell. Thankfully the collapse happened after a UCONN basketball game and no one was there.

  26. Philip I was thinking the same thing. All schools should start the day after Labor Day. One school district in CT already has to make up a day since they didn’t open there doors. Two school systems Milford and West Haven early dismissal today and yesterday. How much learning went on in those two school districts with back to back early dismissals.

  27. This 180-day rule for schools should be a “guideline” and not gospel.

    After all, TK missed 3 weeks of school during the 1977-78 winter and he turned out pretty good IMO. 🙂

  28. I’ll comment more on Modoki later. Quick glance a lot of them were cold. Some snowy, some very dry. Many other factors to consider, many of which remain unknown until Oct and Nov…

    1. Thanks, TK. I couldn’t fall asleep last night, so I delved into some of the finer details regarding Modoki. Unfortunately, my lack of meteorological knowledge meant I couldn’t fully grasp all that was being described and explained. The scientific explanations filled with jargon I wasn’t too familiar did eventually cure my insomnia.

      1. You were reading about this in the wee hours of the morning. I’d say your missing three weeks of school didn’t hurt you in the least!

        I love this definition.

        “Modoki” is a very useful word in Japanese. In my Japanese dictionary, “modoki” is defined that it is used after a noun. The word ending with “modoki” represents a word that isn’t as qualified as the word that you just mentioned. For example, “kiiro modoki” means yellowish, but not exactly yellow

        1. So, not exactly an El Nino. Or, not a `traditional’ one. So maybe we can say that Mookie Betts is a modoki power hitter.

  31. Interesting that dew points are coming down a tad. Currently Logan dp is down
    to 68. 68 isn’t dry, but it is certainly better than 73-76!

    Why?

    A bit of drier air mixing down from above given the fairly windy conditions????

    Any explanation would be appreciated and believe me I am not complaining, just most
    curious.

  32. Tweet NWS Boston
    Boston has reached 97° at 112 pm breaking its previous record of 96° in 1953 …

  33. Different world atop Mt. Washington.
    While we swelter, it is a mere 59 Degrees at the summit. 😀

    1. Not great, but hanging in there. We just do NOT NOT NOT want 90 again
      tomorrow. Thank you for asking.

      1. She has been on my mind and I am keeping my fingers crossed that for her and others who are struggling that this ends soon.

  35. Good grief. The latest warning going around on FB is not to fill your gas take or it will explode in this heat. Just fill about half.

    2. That is up there on the stupid scale. 🙂

      Not that this matters much, but a full tank has a lesser chance of exploding than a partially filled one. 😉 It’s miniscule, but there you have it. 🙂

  36. This is not the tweet I want to read from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    So about next week… growing signals for another scorcher. Bumping temperatures up significantly for Labor Day through Thursday.

    1. This is what I alluded to in my medium range. We’re going to get at least one more heat dome if not 2 more.

      This pattern is like a hybrid of 1983 and 1988, but overall just a little less intense than both.

      1. Actually the August / September pattern in 1983 makes this one look lame. 😉 I don’t think we’ll ever see that repeated in our lives. Not that intense for that long.

  37. Hopefully next week is the last jab summer will give us in terms of heat and humidity. Looking at the Eric’s 7 day he posted on twitter and I know there is plenty of time for this to change it would not surprise me come next Tues and Wed if we see more school districts with early dismissals.

  38. Another thing I never mentioned about 1983 was the relentless heat in northwestern Europe. July 1983 was the hottest month ever recorded there for a long time, with high temps in the 85-95 range all 31 days in much of the country. The record was eclipsed barely in July 2006, another anomalously hot summer in northwestern Europe.

  39. I know. Summer to me never goes quietly. I bet will see a jab come around or just after calendar fall starts.

    1. Once we FINALLY match a few long term indices up again we’ll have an early and chilly fall (like 1980).

    1. Solar activity and decadal patterns play a larger role than given credit for. There are some surprises in store in the years ahead to those who are unaware of this. 🙂

  41. CFS Monthly forecast hints at mild/wet Nov, chilly/dry Dec, mild/wet Jan, chilly/dry Feb-Mar. I’m not sure how much it would factor in the type of El Nino, but that’s one plausible scenario, taking only the potential Modoki into account. Don’t read too much into this. I’ll be posting snippets of pieces of the puzzle, and these are incomplete pictures to be all fit together in a few months.

  42. My two grandsons just got off the bus….they have 45 or more minute ride…..and looked as if they’d stepped out of a burning hot shower.

  43. Temps are SLIGHTLY underachieving today in most locations. Also, dew points are down a little. It’s only borderline oppressive in many locations now. Boston’s dew has come down 8 degrees from its high during this hot stretch.

    1. We are down 1.4 degrees to 94 and DP is down 2 at 71. Sutton didn’t get the message…..how dare they 😉

      1. Yes, according to the “official” records, they have indeed broken that record. I expected that would go.

  44. Sitting here at Herring Cove in PTown since about noon.

    Nice breeze, I’d guess mid to upper 80s. Ocean warm !!

    Saw 1 seal. Weird to see shark flag flying at lifeguard stand.

    We went in. No one is beyond shoulder deep.

    Beautiful beach day !!

  45. Office AC still on the fritz. I am told that there are 6 something or others running
    the cooling, but only 4 are working. Facilities at one point called them generators
    and at another point called them Compressors. I do believe that compressors
    make more sense. I have been up there before and I don’t remember seeing 6
    of anything. I had to reset it once a few years ago when no one else was around to do it.

    I get to do loads of things around here.

    In any case, I believe there is only one large compressor, but it may very well
    be made up of 6 sub units of some sort. Just don’t know all of the specifics.

    Bottom line it is currently only 75% efficient, which means it’s about 78 or 79 in here
    instead of 72. 😀 But that is manageable for most.

  46. The talk of more heat domes in September has me in a state. Uncle. This is torture. What grievous sin did I commit to deserve this? If there was a way to pay mother nature to no longer allow those high pressure areas to slide to our south and east, I’d give her my credit card information. You know it’s bad when people are relieved about lower-than-expected dewpoints in the upper 60s and temps only in the mid 90s. Good grief.

    And now for something completely different – a wonderful collage of landscape photo’s:

    http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20180712-striking-landscape-photos-from-around-the-world

    2. Still won’t be as bad as 1983 I suspect. But I don’t think that’s comfort to many. 😉

          1. Oh…I used to love the hot summers…still do just not for as long as it seems this one has gone on for..could be that I’m just getting old 🙂

    1. That’s really close to our normal body temperature, and with the heat index I’m sure it’s at least a low-grade fever.

  48. TK, I was in Holland in 1983. Started to warm up by late June. I returned home in early July, but corresponded the old-fashioned way – snail mail – with friends in Holland who said it was hot most of the summer. But, not as hot as it got here. I remember that summer well. I was here from early July to early September. My parents had no AC and my room was in the attic space. But, back then I handled the heat much better than I do now. I kind of enjoyed it. Now I find it beyond awful. 40s and rain is my second worst weather type, but even that beats 90s and humidity.

    1. The 1983 global pattern fascinated me. I think 1982 and 1983 were right up there as 2 of my all time favorite “weather years”. Granted back then I was barely able to understand the aspects of the pattern and the internet still quite a distance away it wasn’t easy to research, but I put together what I could from watching the very early Weather Channel and that awesome PBS program, “AM Weather”.

  49. Speaking of TWC, if anybody needs a distraction from the heat, here is the entire first hour of the channel’s existence on May 2, 1982. The first 27 minutes are a ceremony and this is followed by the launch of the telecast. Skip to 27 min and change if you want to see the first moments of the actual on-air mets.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhv2fzi5GEQ

    I must note that some of the original music was replaced due to copyright issues, but it’s the best you can find right now.

  51. Great youtube link, TK. Noticed that right on cue New England on May 2nd was stuck in the middle of double barreled low pressure areas, one sitting off the coast, and one to the west/northwest. Probably rained or was dreary for several days during that period.

      1. Yes, I was here (in the states) during the summer of `82 and remember the humidity. With fondness, believe it or not. Arrived late June in NYC, and drove with my brother (who lived in NYC at the time) to Boston in downpours and soupy humidity.

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