Friday Forecast

69 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
A cooler interlude is underway as high pressure passes north of the region today and Saturday bringing Maritime air across the region, and then warm to hot weather will return as the high sinks to the south and turns surface winds more southerly during the course of and shortly after the Labor Day Weekend. The next boundary’s timing appears to be later Tuesday so will shift the next shower and thunderstorm threat to then. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-78. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 59-64. Wind light NE.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind light NE to E.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Highs 77-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s, cooler South Coast.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to around 70. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Warm to hot weather early in the period with a risk of a shower or thunderstorm, then the similar pattern we’ve been repeats with a cool-down from high pressure moving across eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
May see yet another cycle of the same pattern, warm up, risk of showers/storms, then cool down.

69 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I hope you’re faring well health-wise.

    Summit of Mt. Washington has only had 2 days this summer that the temperature dipped to or below freezing: July 7 and August 23. That is unusual. In spite of cooler temperatures now it is not close to freezing and will not get there for the foreseeable future. My wishful thinking on driving out the successive heat domes is just that, wishful thinking.

    I liked your message on how to assess “trends and spikes.” A summer with more than 40 days of dew-points over 70 doesn’t indicate climate change on its own. One has to do proper trend analysis, which is what scientists are doing world-wide, gathering data from thousands of spots around the globe over a long period of time.

    This is very similar in economics. A blip or even a series of blips, in, say, housing prices, is not of much significance, other than to investors who react to every piece of data, often irrationally. In addition, unfortunately, trends, cycles, and spikes are often politicized by both sides, or data cherry-picked to suit political purposes, much to the chagrin of `neutral’ economists like myself. Of course, in economics, unlike meteorology, human influence is both intentional and an endogenous variable. But, attributing business cycles and economic indicators to particular fiscal or monetary policies, or to particular presidential administrations is both tricky and mostly wrong. The unexplained component in all statistical models of the economy is always very large. After all human behavior (whether the individual firm, individual consumer, government, or international entities) is often irrational and inconsistent. Furthermore, the exogenous shocks to the system are always unpredictable and tend to dominate model outcomes. Yet, politicians on both sides take credit for what is going well in the economy. And politicians on both sides blame the other side for what is going wrong in the economy. Although I enjoy following politics and admire a number of politicians, I find all politics – regardless of political orientation – both disingenuous and peculiarly arrogant.

  9. Tweet from meteorologist John Bagioni pretty much says it all with regards to school.
    The # of school conference calls held this week rivaled a winter storm event! Next week likely a repeat!

  10. School superintendents are going to have decisions to make next week. I wonder if there will be a record for these superintendents with decisions they have to make with regards to schools with the heat now and if we have snowy winter for the 2018-19 school year.

    1. If we have a snowy winter, school won’t end until next late July. 😉

      Seriously, there needs to be waivers of the 180-day rule to be considered.

      1. I think the 180 day rule needs to be done away with. I’ve said before that the best school systems in the world have far fewer hours required….in addition to less homework, and – with rare exceptions – no standardized testing. They also empower their teachers. We are not the best.

        All of that said, I think most of the schools have made days an early release so that they do not count as a day missed. And, teachers here can verify, but I believe contractually, schools cannot go past June 30.

      2. The 180 day rule is NUTS! archaic, to say the least.
        Some people making these decisions view school as built in
        day care. Sad state of affairs.

    2. I understand some schools are very old and would be cost prohibitive to
      retrofit the buildings with central air. But since the beginning of modern
      central air/heating why on earth would they forego building them with Central
      air on any school built after say the 60s or so? Would they build a school
      with no heating system? Well perhaps down South they would, then they would have the opposite problem as we do. I think it is INSANE to build a school
      without central air. INSANITY!!!!!

      1. Even in the 60s, it was the exception and not the rule that we had heat extend into fall. And, I know there were hot days. A few here and there did not set the trend. I am curious how many new schools have been built and how many of them have AC. All of suttons’s schools are new and they do have AC. I understand it is not terribly efficient in the upper grades (larger school), but it is still enough.

        1. I don’t understand why AC isn’t efficient in the high schools. Can you explain that further, Vicki?

          1. The AC systems, as I understand it, are more of a circulate air system and not as proficient as a full central air system. I am not totally clear on it also, Philip. I can ask further when I have a chance to see the individuals who have the information.

            I was also told, in part, it is because of the size of the school, different floors (second floor is hotter in most all situations, even homes), and simply bigger bodies.

  12. School can’t go past June 30th and for 2019 it will be June 28th since June 30th is a Sunday. Come June if it gets hot these superintendents may have to make decisions for early dismissal yet again.

  13. 72, dp 57 at Logan. How refreshing compared to what it has been. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

  14. I have liked this pattern. From warm/hot and humid, then a few days of cooler weather, to go back hot. Hope this continues. Keeps the pool weather going 🙂

        1. Well yes but it’s not continuous. Today, for example. Tomorrow, for another example. 2 days with much lower temp & dp.

  18. It appears that the HHH will be on the weekdays and the cool, dry days will be on weekends. Too bad it is not the reverse.

    4-5 days = HHH
    2-2 1/2 days = cool

    1. Do you mean that on top of the mountain they are enjoying a wonderful day?

      OR

      Do you mean you ARE at the summit yourself and are enjoying a wonderful day.

      Words can be so misleading. 😀

        1. Awesome!!!

          It says the temperature is 54.

          Can you see the Atlantic?

          Did you hike up? Drive? OR Cog Railway?

          Enjoy!

          I’ve hiked up to the summit twice from The Notch.

  22. I see that post is going around social media again about Donald Trump having stolen a speech from “Bee Movie” for his inaugural address…

    One ITSY BITSY problem: The speech wasn’t IN “Bee Movie”. Whoopsie! 😉

    CPC has updated their 30 day outlook today and it reflects fairly dry and very warm weather for September. No surprise there.

    1. There was a similar claim about Avatar. But, Don’t let it be said you didn’t open a bees nest .. the words were actually meaningful so it stands to reason he took them from somewhere 😉 😉 😉

      Just for fun, folks.

          1. I just think fake news memes are funny. That was all I was getting at. Trump didn’t actually have anything to do with why I said it. 🙂

            1. I know. I try to always check the memes. Most are inaccurate. I don’t always succeed. Some are funnier than others. Some are really sad.

    2. it was just for fun, but it shows how delicate his supporters feelings are, and them being on egg shells and remembering that they voted for the jerk.

  25. I was thinking same thing the other day not see AceMaster post in quite a while Retrac posts in the winter.

      1. From the National Hurricane Center…

        The biggest change noted
        among the track models on this cycle was a westward shift in the
        overall guidance envelope. The European model, in particular, swungsignificantly to the left, showing a weaker Florence not feeling thebreak in the ridge quite as much. I’d like to see this trendcontinue before making a significant change to the forecast, so fornow the updated NHC track prediction is only nudged westward. Thatsaid, the models appear to be trending away from a definitiverecurvature scenario.

        1. wasn’t it the euro that was ahead of the others for Sandy? Is it better at seeing where these storms will go or was that a one off?

          1. Yes it was. Was the 0Z run meaningful? We’ll
            find out. Let’s see what the 12Z run shows.
            It could very well be onto to something.

  28. I’m watching the celebration of Senator McCain’s life. It is a very sad day; but even in death, his message to a country he loved is so very clear. He is a hero in the truest sense of the word.

  29. Right on cue, we’re entering the more active period of this hurricane season that I mentioned was on the way for 9/1-9/20. We’ll have to be wary for these next 3 weeks or so. Much too early to get specific, but it’s a pattern that has to be watched.

  30. My youngest was in Charleston last week. She had forgotten….last time we were in Charleston was 2006….how warm the ocean water can get. My son in law had a rather interesting comparison for it. What did surprise me was that she said it was also very murky. Even in one foot depths, you could not see the bottom.

    1. A com0lete aside but something that surprised me. Macs parents rented a huge home on the beach at Isle of Palm. In the 2000s it was in the 2000-3000/wk range. Now, with two homes between it and the beach, it is now 22,000/wk

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