Sunday Forecast

48 Comments

10:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
As the holiday weekend rolls on (and goes by far too quickly for many) we’ll see a building of heat and humidity as high pressure sinks to the south and ends up east of New England by Monday. It sits there Tuesday as well which will be another hot and humid day, but we will have to also introduce the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast as a cold front approaches from the north. This does not look like a front that is going to be a prolific rain-producer, and only expecting these showers and storms to be isolated. This front slips to the south Wednesday, taking the edge off the heat and humidity as the air flow comes in from the Atlantic with high pressure in a recently familiar place in eastern Canada. But the boundary goes right back to the north for Thursday, allowing heat and humidity back. This is all part of that ridge-dominated pattern in which the overall temperatures are warm, but the degree of that warmth is dependent on what is going on at the surface. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds and sun. More humid. Highs 72-78 South Coast, 78-84 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
The boundary that will be wavering around in the days before this will settle to the south of the region during Friday September 7 which ends up an unsettled day with a risk of showers. There is uncertainty for the September 8-9 weekend because of the position of that boundary and the strength of a push of cooler/drier air courtesy high pressure in eastern Canada. With luck, that push will be strong enough so that the weekend is fair and comfortable, but this is no guarantee. The boundary may try to come back north briefly about September 10 before being pushed southward again at the end of the period, so the cooler/drier air will make a valiant effort to gain more control during this particular period, although there will be details to iron out.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
I am still of the opinion that subtropical high pressure dominates with the warmer side of things being more dominant once again. The weather in the region would likely be mainly dry but not without a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities. As previously mentioned, we’ll also be paying attention to things in the tropics as they have become a little more active.

48 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. I believe that dewpoints are going to be on the moderate side for Wednesday. Still plenty room for sweat, at least for me.

  6. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On this date in 1935, the most intense land-falling hurricane ever in the Western Hemisphere struck the Florida Keys. What was its name?

    A. Andrew
    B. Barry
    C. Camille
    D. No Name

    Answer later today.

    2. D
      I think that storms were given names later on in the 20th century. Plus, the names you offer as answers were storms much later in the century and storms had women’s names until 1979.
      There’s my answer and I have shown my work. (the teacher in me!)

      Sox go for their 95th win of the season today on September 2! Incredible!

      Thanks, as always, TK…

      A relaxing Labor Day weekend to all!

      1. Worrisome for the east coast ….

        Atlantic ridge has been so persistent.

        I know there will be adjustments and changes to the upper flow
        And sfc positions but I’d give a higher probability to some sort of dominating Atlantic ridge being present to cause a sscenario like the 12z run to play out.

  10. Temp and esp DP have been slowly building all day as promised. You could tell between the feel this am and yesterday

    85 with 66 DP in Sutton. I’m fighting putting AC on.

      1. We are trying a new approach. Set it low very early am and see if it keeps temp down and actually will cycle off for periods of time. I’m not sold on it. I figure if the house is 78 then all setting it at 72 vs 76 does it keep temp at 78 but keeps condenser running …for no reason that makes sense to me. So we shall see

  11. There are many variables in play with Florence. It is far too early to know what impacts, if any, it will have on the US or any land areas. Really the only useful takeaway from the models today is that it’s about 10 days away from when it would potentially be in striking range. Not a cause for concern right now. I do think the Euro is much more realistic over the next 5-6 days than the GFS, which naturally means its longer range forecast should be better. I think a wildcard being overlooked is the distinct possibility that Florence could dissipate altogether in 3-5 days due to cool waters and higher shear, which almost happens on the Euro. Either way, plenty of time to watch it.

    1. Awesome. I read myself out at Humarock. However, I have been looking for a good audio book where is can sit on deck, listen, and not miss the world as it goes by around me.

    1. If it has your attention, it sure as heck has mine. Have I mentioned I love it when we have something to track

    1. Thanks for sharing Vicki. Adopting all of those here might not be realistic but the “less is more”philosophy is certainly in the right direction. The “180-day” rule alone would make a huge difference. Starting in August/ending late June is totally ludicrous.

  15. Euro’s forecast with Florence is too weak too long and therefore probably too far south and west.

    1. I notice you say probably, therefore anything can still happen. Therefore, I watch with interest, even if it end up recurving safely OTS. 😀

  17. Not for nothing, but Brian Johnson is a Triple A or Double A pitcher and has NO BUSINESS being on a major league roster. Just my rant of the day!

  19. 18z GFS run says middle Atlantic New England pay attention to Florence in case she moves further to the west instead of curving out to sea and just giving some wave action.

  21. 2 euro op runs in a row (yesterday’s 12z and overnight’s 00z) at 240 hrs where the projected location of Florence can’t be more than 50 miles different, not far from the North Carolina coastline.

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