Monday Forecast

76 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
One more day to the long weekend and it will be hottest one as a south to southwest flow pumps in that summertime air. The heat continues into Tuesday but will be cut off from northeast to southwest as a back-door front slips through during the course of the day and evening. Don’t look for a huge temperature drop as ocean temperatures are at their warmest now, but you will notice a change gradually beginning later in the day or evening depending on where you are. This will set up a “less hot” but still warm Wednesday as the air flow starts from the east then turns more southerly as high pressure slides to the southeast. The boundary that comes through later Tuesday returns to the north and reintroduces some heat and humidity for Thursday, before a cold front from the northwest puts an end to that surge by Friday. This front may bring some showers and storms to the region later Thursday and some of these showers may linger into Friday as the front starts to slow down while exiting the South Coast. Forecast details…
TODAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere. Wind W up to 10 MPH in the morning shifting to NE from northeast to southwest during the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light NE to E.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly late day and evening. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the South Coast in the morning. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
Going for a weekend split right now with dry weather September 8 as high pressure from the north pushes far enough south for dry and cooler weather, then low pressure in the Great Lakes approaches September 9, having entrained some moisture from a tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico, to bring some wet weather by later in the weekend. Still have timing details to work out. It may continue unsettled into September 10 before we get a brief shot of cooler/drier air followed by a quick warm-up late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
Current indications are for a warm and mainly dry weather pattern but we’ll have to potentially keep an eye on an offshore tropical system. Odds favor it not being an impact at this time.

76 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Answer to yesterday’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On this date in 1935, the most intense land-falling hurricane ever in the Western Hemisphere struck the Florida Keys. What was its name?

    A. Andrew
    B. Barry
    C. Camille
    D. No Name

    The correct answer is D.

  8. Assuming something strange doesn’t happen later this evening, Logan is set up for another day with a minimum temp greater than or equal to 70F. Today’s current lowest temp is 73F.

    At 8am, Logan hit the average high temp for the date of 76F.

    At 9am, it’s 79F with a dp of 70F and a heat index of 82F.

  11. Thanks TK. Happy Labor Day all!

    Keep in mind when looking at ensembles, that just because you don’t “see” Florence in an MSLP field at longer ranges doesn’t mean it isn’t there. What you’re looking at on, say, the EPS on Tropical Tidbits is a composite mean of all the 50 members of that ensemble. The reason it doesn’t really show up at day 1o on the mean is that the individual members are so spread out in track and intensity that the “average” of them doesn’t really have any meaning. Most of the individual members do have Florence still in existence by then, and a number have it as a strong hurricane. But there’s also some that keep it weak, and they are spread out all over the place on track. The obvious implication here is that the forecast for Florence beyond day 5 is extremely uncertain, though I continue to feel the operational Euro is doing better than the GFS, which is shown in the GFS gradually correcting towards the Euro for the past several runs.

  12. I’m listening to Isaac’s Storm, recommended by MassBay. It is well written from the start. The description of the time, both meteorologically and from a 1900 perspective, is really well done. For some reason I am familiar with parts. I wonder if I’ve read a very abridged version with one of my kids or grandkids.

    “In the northern hemisphere, the winds of tropical cyclones always move counterclockwise around a central area of low pressure. Stand with your back to the wind, and the barometer will be lower on your left than on your right.”

    Seriously fascinating stuff

    1. It was a time when “the hubris of men led them to believe they could disregard the signs of even nature, itself.” Im thinking that has not changed much 🙂

  13. Ryan Hanrahan’s first thoughts on Florence
    Tropical Storm Florence is certainly worth watching on the east coast of the U.S. Tons of model spread (which you’d expect to see at 10 days) ranging from a Florida hit to recurving east of Newfoundland! Stay tuned.

    1. Here is what I take from it:

      However, if there was one solution to lean toward – it may be one which features stronger ridging over the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. This has been a recurring mid level pattern this season (over the past 2 months or so) and there is strong teleconnection support for it to continue during this time frame. With that in mind, there may be some credence toward leaning in the direction of the ECMWF’s idea.

      1. Avon St beach in Marshfield.

        To my right, by a quarter mile is Duxbury Beach and to the left by a couple football fields is green harbor beach (burke’s beach)

        1. Very true, however, the location of that facata airport
          denied them several legit 90 degree days that th rest of the city endured. 😀

    1. That trof to the north helping to cool us off next weekend is just too far north to grab Florence. Then the ridging kicks back in ….

  21. The difference between the Euro and GFS is striking. Right around day 5 is the critical point IMO. Does a stronger Florence get scooped out by a trough around then and sail harmlessly OTS? Or does a weaker Florence miss the trough and fall back under a building ridge, and re-intensify heading towards the US? So many questions… you can see what’s beyond Florence too on the Euro. We’ve also got Gordon in the Gulf. The lid is off of the Atlantic; it’s gonna be a busy couple weeks. We just have to keep our eyes open.

    1. Anything to the conclusion of that system 10 days out is too soon. Just look at the spread between ECMWF, GEM, and GFS (noted above by WxW). Over 2000 miles for models using the same data, run about the same time, forecasting for the same # of hours in the future.

      Actually just below I’ll post something I just posted elsewhere on social media…

  23. Interesting as I look over latest obs across SNE.

    Generally, 93 is the high reading, EXCEPT OF COURSE for LOGAN and LAWRENCE!
    which both stand at 95. Interesting.

  24. This is a replica of a post I made on a page I admin on FB, regarding using models for tropical forecasting so far in advance…

    A little lesson/reminder in not putting too much stock in computer model forecasts regarding anything beyond a few days, but most especially and relevant for this example is tropical cyclones for models that are not designed to handle them all that well. I am going to post links to 3 models from today’s 12z runs. All 3 are valid at 12z (or 8AM EDT) on Thursday September 13. Note the differences in the forecast position of Florence on these and then try to justify why anybody should be making a confident sounding forecast about the future track of a tropical cyclone 10 days in advance!

    ECMWF (European) model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018090312&fh=240

    GEM (CMC – Canadian) model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018090312&fh=240

    GFS (American) model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018090312&fh=240

    Yes, that is Florence forecast to be anywhere from just off the Florida / Georgia coast to just south of Cape Cod to out by the Azores, yes, the Azores. What is that, a spread of over 2000 miles between 3 models all run on the same data and valid at the same time? If this doesn’t drive home the point about uncertainty in model forecasting, I’m afraid nothing ever will.

    1. Thanks TK. I read your comment on FB and again here …twice because it is important…..just as WxWatchers was earlier.

      I love reading the posts by JPD and others with the links that have storms….winter and summer….going every which way. The outcome doesn’t matter to me as much as the interaction of whatever system we are following with different factors in nature. It all just fascinates me….especially when I see the term YIKES. I know it doesn’t mean imminent danger but that it means “wow look at how quickly things can change.”

      After all, as we know….anticipation is half the joy

      All of that, your spot on forecasts, and your assuring everyone stays grounded, is what makes this blog absolutely remarkable.

      1. Thank you. And there is nothing wrong with viewing the models and their differences. They are out there to be seen (sometimes I’m not sure how great a thing this is…). But everybody here at least understands the uncertainty involved. Not something we can say for the public as a whole, or at least far too many of them. More education needed.

        1. I think with reminders from responsible folks such as you that reasonable folks will understand that the models are meaningless when far out. I truly believe that those who don’t by now will also never so we might as well enjoy them.

          You are very correct about more education. I see Eric trying but I really don’t go anywhere for weather other than here so don’t know about others.

          1. Eric surely does try.
            Lat week when we were tracking thunderstorms,
            ERIC actually mentioned “Short Waves” on air.
            He said something like “that is what meteorologists call the upper disturbances coming through”. Don’t hold me to the exact words, but you get the idea. I don’t think I have ever heard a TV met mention “short wave”.

    1. That, my friend, is what excites me. We have no clue and warchingit come together is fascinating. I will admit without your links and comments and comments of others, I would barely begin to understand it all. Thank you to you also and to those on here who teach with their comments

      Truly. Is there a better place for weather folks than right here 🙂

  26. Hey, we complain about temperature sensors being off…

    I have another one for us.

    Why are so many major league pitchers topping out at 100+ mph with their pitches.
    Is it real? Or inflated from the radar guns not being calibrated properly???
    I for one, cannot fathom this many pitchers topping 100 mph. The latest?
    Nathan Eovaldi getting a strike out on a 100.9 mph heater. Nathan Eovaldi???
    C’mon, are you serious?

    I strongly question the validity of those radar guns. I really do.

  27. Thank you, TK.

    Happy Labor Day to all. Interestingly, both the American version of Labor Day – celebrated today – and the international version – celebrated by almost every country except the U.S. on May 1st – have American origins in the late 19th century labor union movements.

    Back to weather. All I can say is:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZNTHJ6DjCU

    1. I agree with your sentiment. My wife was doing better this weekend,
      UNTIL that is the humidity started creeping up last night.

      ENOUGH ALREADY)(!@&#*&!@*#!(*@&#(*!@&#*(!&@*#&

  28. How about this…So you think the water is warm? You are correct.
    Example: Currently it is 88 in Portland. ME with a SE sea breeze at 13 mph.
    Perhaps it just kicked in, but still, just shows how warm that ocean is.

      1. Not necessarily. It is not automatic that if it’s warm now, it’s warm then. The ocean is complex. It circulates in an even more complex way than the atmosphere does. We’ll have to see how things evolve over the next few months.

  29. Boston buoy water temp 16 NM East of Boston

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 75.6 °F

    Stellwagen Bank

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 71.6 °F

        1. There were a few water temps of 83 degrees in Narragansett Bay on a few of the sensors there that URI. The Northwest Atlantic is in a middle of a ocean heatwave. Same thing on the west coast, some of the warmest water temps they have seen off of San Diego.

  32. Well, besides Blackstone and I’m sure many other humans, there are other living creatures that absolutely love this kind of weather: Cicadas. You know that piercing, searing sound that today and throughout most of this week will remind us that Boston is temporarily Saigon.

    Cicadas `sing’ most actively during the hottest hours of a summer day. They depend on external heat to warm them up. So, during a cool summer you will not hear from cicadas very often. This summer, on the other hand, they’re having fun (at my expense).

    1. Judging from comments I hear when out and about there are not many other humans. My oldest loves it. Weather is weather but I get frustrated that I cannot be outside. There are a lot of other things that weave their way into that.
      I was surprised when my youngest, who has never minded HHH, is now finding she is struggling health wise.

    3. I’ve noticed a lack of cicadas in my area this season. And you can add me to the list too. 🙂

        1. Usually we have a lot more here. Just a down season in this area. We do have PLENTY of crickets though!

  33. All I know is that this allergy season has not been bad as of yet. Knock on wood. I say its due to the heat and humidity as well as the amount of water we have had keeping this clean 🙂 In other news, I am still waiting on those EURO monthlies.

    1. Interestingly enough, I’m having my worst allergy season in a long time. Weeds, which are my prime offender, are prolific due to the warmth and rainfall of August.

      It’s bad enough that I am pretty sure my immune system’s response to the allergens is what caused my disease to come out of remission. Doctor always linked the two.

  35. Starting theday at 75,69 here.
    I see it is 81/72 at he airport.
    I think the low at logan was 80?? not sure. I wonder
    if this is a record high low temp for sept???

    1. its awful.

      School hallways about 85 to 90 and have 1,000% humidity.

      Thanks goodness school starts tomorrow. Maybe A/C’s can cool off rooms. 🙂

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