Tuesday Forecast

79 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
The heat and humidity in this latest bout peaked on Monday as you will notice today being a little less hot and also may notice a downward trend in the humidity, but it will be subtle as a fairly inactive back door cold front slips across the region from northeast to southwest. These fronts carry much less impact at this time of year than they do in the spring, but it will be enough to take the edge off the heat/humidity into Wednesday. Any shower activity with this front will be isolated and mainly well west and southwest of Boston this afternoon, otherwise expect no threat of rain through Wednesday, even as the boundary starts a northeastward return. By Wednesday night into Thursday we’re back in the heat and humidity for a short time. A stronger cold front will move through late in the day and evening from northwest to southeast, bringing a greater threat of showers and thunderstorms, then introducing a cooler/drier air mass to the region during Friday and into the weekend. Friday may be somewhat slow to clear as the front will be slowing down as it exits the South Coast, so that day may end up more cloud-dominated than Saturday will likely turn out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly mid to late afternoon west and southwest of Boston. Slightly less humid. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 eastern MA and NH Seacoast, 88-93 elsewhere. Wind light variable becoming light NE.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light NE to E.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 78-86. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 66-72. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the South Coast in the morning. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Comfortable. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
A rather cool day Sunday September 9 and clouds are expected to increase. It may turn wet before day’s end from the combination of a low pressure area passing through the Great Lakes and moisture that was associated with Gulf of Mexico tropical system Gordon. As that area passes to the north a trailing front will bring additional unsettled weather September 10 before a brief drier/cooler shot September 11 and a quick warm-up following it later next week with mainly dry weather. Odds favor TS or Hurricane Florence making a turn near or east of Bermuda around the middle to end of next week and not impacting the East Coast but will continue to monitor that storm.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
High pressure ridging will overtake the weather again with mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures expected. However with this pattern in place and tropical systems potentially off the coast, always something to keep a close eye on.

79 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. Makes sense. Heat had to really build in the schools over the long weekend.

      I know other schools have been releasing early but were not listed online. I think many schools have gone to the bulk phone calls to parents.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Did Boston start school today? I saw students around and at least 1 school bus.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Low at Logan last night was 80F. That would easily be an all time monthly record for September (old record is 77F), but they will likely fall well below that before midnight tonight. The warm pattern continues.

      1. Ha, just answered below before I saw this. Basically, still just watching and waiting. Not putting much stock in any individual runs. Some form of OTS is probably most likely, but much too early to be sure.

        1. Thanks much. We always appreciate your input to any discussion.

          Has school started? Best of luck this year.

          1. Oh yes, last week was the first week here. This semester is mostly coursework for me so it still feels a little more like undergrad than grad school. I’ll transition into more research work next semester and beyond. Appreciate the well wishes!

            And good luck to all the teachers and students getting the new school year started!

            1. Best of luck to you in your graduate studies, WxW. Middleborough students do not return to class until tomorrow. District did not start today as the town uses the high school gym for voting. I had three teacher professional days last week.

  8. I certainly don’t believe we’ve heard the last word on Florence despite the shift in the 0z Euro. Still tremendous spread in the guidance and an uncertain steering pattern. Just have to keep watching.

    1. 83.6 at my house with dp 68. At least it’s trending in the right direction.

      The low in my kitchen this morning was 81.3. Yuck!

      Sunday AM it was 69 in the kitchen which is much more like it.

  11. The potential thunderstorms to me is not the story. Its the relief from the heat coming Fri and the weekend.
    Lot of early dismissals in CT again due to the heat. Are there a lot of schools up in MA dismissing early today?

    1. It’s hard to tell, JJ. We seem to have moved to phone calls to parents rather than posting on news station websites. Philip said Waltham is closed but I don’t even see that. I know Framingham dismissed early last week but I didn’t see that listed on either WHDH or BZ either.

  12. Dew Point down to 66 at Logan and he North wind now has an Easterly component.
    Direction appears to be 005 or 010 degrees.

    1. Now Logan has a straight Due NE wind. That “should” get the temp
      down to upper 70s at Logan. We shall see.

  15. Nice drop in temps for Friday showing up on the 12z NAM with widespread 70s. Enough CAPE for thunderstorms on Thursday but nothing impressive in terms of severe weather.

  18. Thank you, TK.

    John (SSK), I’m keeping my fingers crossed for good weather for you and your wife on Saturday.

    1. Thanks Also we are heading into the North End for lunch ( light as we have 8:30 dinner reservations. We were thinking of a few slices from the original pizza Regina but uo for suggestions . I heard some nice hidden spots down in the alley ways

  19. Definitely `cooler’ than I expected this morning.

    A sign of changing seasons: The red-winged blackbirds have returned to Mexico and other places. The other day I saw a straggler on the banks of the Charles looking forlorn while mumbling “Nafta, Nafta.”

  21. Was at home for lunch. Pretty stiff EAST wind, but temperature was still
    90 or awfully close to it. My sun drenched sensor was reading 91.
    Norwood is reading 90.

    Logan at 84 despite an East to NE wind all day.

  23. Outstanding job Vicki! Well done!

    I find this the most telling of all:

    Seattle’s two main temperature readings come from Seatac and Boeing Field. They often disagree and the difference is highly dependent on wind direction. Northerly winds lead to warm temps at Seatac and potential warm biases due to the sensor’s location relative to the runways.

    Does this ever sound like our Logan problem?

    TK, you should reward Vicki with star of the day or some such thing.

    1. Vicki earns her star daily, as do you and several others. 🙂 But if I could make a star with these crude “graphics” on word press, I’d do it. 🙂

      Off to take mom to an appoint for her lungs. Wish her luck! I am doing OK, just a bit of a set-back today and yesterday. That’s ok. I’m 99% convinced this is allergy linked. Going back in my notes, I had flares in 2007 (August), 2009 (August-Sep), 2011 (August-Sep), 2013 (June-August), 2018 (end of July to early September so far…) … Very telling.

        1. She gets a recurring cough, but I think it’s an allergic reaction to all the cleaning she still does. She bought masks, but she won’t wear them. I’m hoping the doc can convince her to do so.

  27. GBAGL is good when it comes to tropical systems bad come winter if you love snow since it means its a miss.

  29. I would not want a Hurricane to move and do major destruction, but if we could get a storm that cools off the water, that would be nice, as we are 8 degrees + above our normal SSTs

    1. Ok, got it. Wasn’t sure which one was the headline.
      Flash Gordon it is.

      Queen and Freddie Mercury.

      One of the all time great bands for sure.

  31. Thank you, JPD. Like you, I saw similarities between Seattle and Boston.

    TK – good luck to your mom. She is always in my prayers and thoughts.

    I saw your comment about your allergies yesterday and had meant to respond. I never really had allergies, but in the past few years I seem to have developed something, including a winter-type asthma. I have noticed that this time of year, I also seem to have a problem that usually involves a cough. I had to use an inhaler a couple of times the other day when I had the window open. It isn’t as bad with the AC on and windows closed. I’m betting you are right about your mom.

  33. FWIW, JPD….I commented on the Seattle weather blog. It would be interesting to have Justin and TK compare notes. I do note that he said the NWS did check the Seattle station and said it was working fine.

  34. Tom alluded to it above… the 12z guidance in the longer range is rather remarkable. Heat dome continues to reload and reload again. The “heat dome” signal at days 10-15 on the EPS is probably the strongest I have ever seen on an ensemble that far out. It’s not entirely clear where the core of the heat will be; probably to our west, with chunks of it spilling in here. Endless summer.

    A brief reprieve on the way for the end of the week and the weekend. But that’s been the theme; short, unimpressive cool spells with scorching heat on either side of them. That pattern isn’t going away for the foreseeable future. The only thing that can take the edge off now is climatology.

    1. Thank you WxW…I’m not sure what you meant by your last sentence. “The only thing that can take the edge off now is climatology.”

      1. Another way to phrase that is: “The calendar is your friend”. A warm pattern will have less impact overall as you get shorter and shorter days, as a cold one will as you get longer and longer days. Seasonal climatology.

            1. Yay. And thank you. Please give her a hug. And I’m sure you knew I couldn’t wait the six minutes it took you to respond here 😉

  41. A few weeks ago now, I posted an opinion that the above average SST added a bit to the Peabody flood event.

    I really believe those SST anomalies were at it again yesterday.

    Yes, yesterday’s “relief” was a very shallow layer of ‘cooler’ air and it remained plenty warm at 850 mb, so it wasn’t going to get that cool.

    However, I am of the belief that had SST been closer to normal, the temps and dp’s would have been a few degrees lower yesterday along the coast and some miles inland than were seen.

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