Wednesday Forecast

129 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Heat came down a peg or 2 yesterday and hangs back slightly today, though still very warm and moderately humid, then heat and higher humidity are back for Thursday along with the chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. This front, unlike the previous, will bring genuine cooling in for Friday and the weekend, which now looks mainly dry as moisture associated with Gordon and a system to the west will likely hold off until early next week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 78-86. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 66-72. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers South Coast. Less humid. Highs 72-80. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Comfortable. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s interior, upper 50s coastal and urban areas. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Unsettled weather with rain or showers September 10 as a system from the west and moisture from Gordon move through. Clearing September 11 and fair through the remainder of the period with a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
High pressure ridging will overtake the weather again with mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures expected.

129 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks, TK. Sounds as if there will be some much needed deck time this weekend following a week where I could really use it. And a great day for John’s anniversary. What’s not to love?

  3. So Flo is back in the picture? Not that we didn’t know it could change and may well still, but the graphic of the loop and your links from this morning and at the end of yesterday’s blog, JPD, are interesting.

    1. Yes I thought it was as well and we all are aware of the ebbs and flows of the models. I did notice TK left out the mention of keeping an eye on the tropics on days 11-15.

  4. Thanks TK.

    I said something to this affect several weeks ago while the tropics were still in their early summer doldrums, but to reiterate: this year more than usual, you really don’t want a tropical system anywhere near the East Coast.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

    TK has been adamant about a recurve, and he has nailed one thing for sure (which I missed to an equal extent) : Florence has been much stronger in the short range than any of the guidance had it, especially earlier runs of the ECMWF. It will probably become a major hurricane today. This logically enhances the odds of a recurve. However, it’s not the only factor, and on much of the overnight guidance there were some shifts in the mid-latitudes that allowed the steering to take Florence closer to or into the US East Coast. I know I’ve been cautious, but I do lean towards TK’s ideas as well that the storm will be too strong and will have gained too much latitude by the end of the week to not find some way OTS. But it would be foolish to write it off entirely in light of the continued whipsawing of the guidance and my note about SSTs off the East Coast.

    2. I have just been doing some reading and had noticed also the view for Flo to strengthen quickly. I absolutely do not want anything like that near land. I’ll continue to enjoy following but will hope it goes out to sea….keeping in mind that a ship captains wife once said it is important to remember there are people out there also

      Thank you WxW

  6. Now what will the 12z runs do with Flo?
    back out to sea??? Can’t wait. I love the anticipation waiting for the next run.
    Like a kid waiting for Christmas.

    Btw, I told my wife last night that it would be a fitting end to this miserable summer to have us get hit by a hurricane. Just seems to make sense and it has been 26 years since the last one, Bob.

  8. In the words of Bernie Rayno windshield wiper effect. Florence looked like a fish storm yesterday now could be a threat to the east coast. Way too early in my opinion to assume Florence will remain a fish storm.

  9. In thelast five years or more we have had enough power outages due to ice,wind and snow hopefully Florence will stay out to sea.

    1. Thank you Scott. Interesting.

      We have to watch Florence carefully. Hopefully, the OTS scenario pans
      out.

      One thing I have noticed…. each run seems to slow things down some.
      Doesn’t bode well for the East coast.

  11. 0z EURO has Florence going into South Carolina late week next week. As we have seen so far Bucket Load of Salt with that solution.

    1. Thank you JJ. Excellent and well thought out discussion.
      I love your links like this.

      It may very well pass harmlessly out to sea, but you can count me in
      camp WORRY

      It would be a fitting cap to this miserable Summer, that’s for sure.

  14. Ryan Hanrahan’s tweets on Florence
    Hurricane #Florence may be a problem for the east coast. A majority of the European Ensemble members bring Florence toward the U.S. next week.

    The issue with #Florence is going to be another huge ridge of high pressure building in next week. That effectively cuts off the escape route out to sea and sets the storm toward U.S. We’ll watch it every step of the way for you.

    3. the thing is if a storm of that magnitude does happen, there is a bunch of cool air in canada, would not take much for it to be dragged down. Could it snow, probably not maybe some of the highest of elevations of Maine, but I do not think many would see snow even in that solution.

  16. Thanks TK !

    Well, we are off on day #1 with the new school year.

    Interesting watching the sixth graders try to open their lockers.

    Since yesterday, I am now not a fan of summer warmth or humidity. Its miserably hot in the hallways of this poorly built building, with respect to climate.

    2. Unfortunately, I bet day #1 in October won’t feel much better. This disgusting HHH pattern is relentless as Canada just cannot take control.

    3. Ugh Tom. My grandkids who never have problem with HHH did all say that it was difficult yesterday. There is no AC in the nine-year old’s classroom in Uxbridge nor is there any in the cafeteria. I cannot even imagine how it felt to be in there. And from my eleven year old in Sutton, the cafe was very hot. I was a bit surprised they had outdoor recess. Don’t misunderstand….I think it goes without saying how much I value fresh air.

    4. This was the first year my 7th grader had a locker and that was by far the scariest part of starting school 🙂 Some moms that I know bought combo locks for their kids to practice on before school started. Wish I though of that!

      Hope you have a great year Tom!

      1. I remember getting a combination lock for my oldest. When she went to high school it was the first year framingham combined both north and south high schools. I noticed she was still carrying all of her books after a week so asked about her locker. Her response was someone had taken it because with all of the kids in the halls, she couldn’t see it.

        She is 5’2” and might be a bit over 100 lbs. Even now I still picture her standing in the middle of the hallway, jumping up and down, trying to find her locker.

        I got chills as a parent from both your comment and Toms.

  17. With Florence. We could have a problem, we might not. Models are all over the place, by the time it reaches our area is passed the 5 day mark and its passed the 240 mark that most models go to. With that said, the difference between the 06z gfs and the 00z and canadian is the timing of a weak trough picking it up. 00z is later than the 06z and part of the reason why the 06z is closer to the coast and is dragged over cape cod based on this model at 13 days. we want that wave to move in quicker the high pressure could be our friend or enemy based on strength and positioning.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018090500&fh=294
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018090506&fh=216

  21. Dew points being shown by 12z NAM are something you would expect to see in Florida. Widespread mid 70 dew points temps upper 80s low 90s. I would expect some heat advisories to be issued for tomorrow. Impressive CAPE being shown by NAM for tomorrow. Limiting factors for a big thunderstorm event poor mid level lapse rates and bulk shear looks marginal at best.

  24. Have to head out for a bit, but just looked at instant weather maps.
    on the 12Z GFS, After Florence is moving decidedly NW for a period, it
    takes a rather dramatic turn to the West. Will be interesting to see where it ends
    up and the strength. Later…

  25. 12z CMC and GFS are offshore but there would be wave action Mid Atlantic possibly even here in SNE. Time period late week next week.

  27. Its looking like isolated strong storms at the moment for tomorrow. The bigger story is what is coming Fri and the weekend and that is a break from the heat and humidity.

  29. Still as this is many days away Florence will need to be watched but hopefully the 12z runs of the CMC and GFS pan out as the worst will happen is wave action.

  32. So much for the coastal cool down today.

    Logan hit 90F with a SW wind and its generally 84F to 88F elsewhere with dewpoints not far from 70F.

    1. Nothing has changed. It’s the same damn air mass!! What there was of a front
      has totally and completely WASHED OUT!

  33. Interesting to me this tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    Despite cooler than normal waters and unfavorable wind shear, #Florence has continued to strengthen in the Atlantic. It has far outpaced model forecasts for both pressure and wind (pictured).

  34. Euro is coming in and is out to hour 120.

    Hard to say what it will do from there. But it is about 200 miles MORE
    to the SoutWest than on the 0Z run.

    1. Sorry, I used the previous run button.
      After I posted, I looked at the actual previous run. Not even close.

      This run is actually “slightly” North of last night’s run.
      Making a bee line for NC instead of last night’s SC.

      We shall see if it makes a turn to the N and then NE.

  37. Save for Sandy in 2012, I cant remember a single run of the EURO since that has in its a run a track this remotely close to New England.

    1. It’s beginning to look scary. But I’d rather see one of this magnitude over
      what the GFS had at the 6Z run. That was outright frightening.

  38. 12z EURO beaches Maryland Virginia Delaware and southern NJ could take a beating. Between hours 192 and 216 it does not make a landfall but is very close. Thankfully were over a week and this will more than likely not be the final outcome.

      1. Florence is like a running back and can’t go no where due to a strong defensive front and is being pushed back on the 12z EURO run.

  40. With that setup those areas near the coasts in the states I just mentioned would get some tropical storm force winds as well as beach erosion. Again huge grain of salt needs to be taken here and this will likely not be the final outcome.

  41. Before we get too excited about today’s 12z ECMWF run, it may be worthy of note that the model initialized the hurricane 35 mb too weak. That makes a huge difference in the outcome of the run.

    Translation: Toss it.

  42. Another issue is (not here so much) but across media people are STILL reacting to model runs like they have become the final words, so there are currently about a half dozen final words when none of them are actually final words and that just leaves the masses very confused and totally incapable of taking in the actual info being provided by responsible forecasters. Oh well, where have we heard this before?

    1. 😀 😀 😀

      I still love watching the run-to-run, model-to-model discrepancies.
      Can’t wait till the next run.

        1. What I said to Dave also applies to you. You guys are smart enough to know. My issue is really just making sure those that don’t know are informed. It’s hard to do when the media doesn’t do its job, and that is part of its job these days if this information is going to be so easily available to anybody.

      2. You, I have no issue with. You know what you’re doing. You know these are simply computer forecasts and can change markedly run to run.

  43. I like this tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    Gonna go ahead and withhold any 12z Euro OP maps until I feel I can properly explain it in context and with annotations. And until we have some new ensemble data to work with. Yeesh.

  44. Depending on the amount of sun Thursday, a few records set in 1983 may be challenged for the date. In reality I think they will not be tied or broken. However, it would not surprise me if Boston ties or breaks theirs due to the inaccurate temperature reading. *yawn*

    1. Ya think?
      Since we way over achieved today, I am here to virtually guarantee you
      that Boston WILL top 94 tomorrow. I am guessing 96 tomorrow, which really means 93-95.

      I saw a 91 for Logan today. The highest forecasted high I saw for Boston
      was 88. You even had 78-86, so there ya go.

      So what happened today?

      If you refer to the comments Tom and I made above, I believe
      it was due to the front washing out allowing the higher 850MB temps (which were still above us, the temporary cooling was only at the surface)
      to mix down to the surface which resulting in over achieving high temperatures.

    2. Tk did you see the link I posted yesterday with regard to reporting what you think are inaccuracies? And maybe reach out to the person who runs the Seattle blog to see how he got NWS to verify the equipment.

  45. Hi everyone!

    Looking for some early guidance about wind direction Saturday and Sunday. We’re going to be sailing from Onset/Wareham, through the canal and north to Winthrop. It’s time to tuck the boat between Logan and Winthrop in case the tropics do send Flo our way! East would be okay, north not so nice. Are the cool temperatures forecast due to a strong onshore breeze?

    Thanks!
    Amy

    1. Main flow is north/northeast on Saturday and sunday. 10 to 20 knots with seas up to 5 feet in some areas. Its gonna be choppy.

  46. This Red Sox game… HAHAHA!!
    Depleted line-up and one of the most entertaining 2 innings of the season.

    1. I left Reading to drive to Woburn and the top of the 8th inning took the entire trip plus more, they went from down 7-1 to tied.

      Since I’ve been home they gave up a HR in the bottom of the 8th to go down 8-7 and then just hit a 2-run HR in the top of the 9th to go up 9-8…

        1. It’s not over yet. Braves threatening in the bottom of the 9th but still an impressive get-back-into-the-game by the Sox today.

          1. There, now it’s over. Good win. They slid a little bit the last couple weeks and people were in panic mode. They’re making adjustments and I’m not worried about them heading toward the post season.

  47. Time to try out for a news anchor position.

    “Hurricane Florence is chugging across the Atlantic. It’s exact path is unknown but it could easily threaten millions living along the east coast and could always exhibit Hurricane Sandy like behavior. Florence is a category 3 hurricane with winds gusting past 125 MPH. Meteorologists are baffled by its track, but don’t worry we will keep you updated on this dangerous hurricane.”

    1. Yup.

      And just to set the record straight, meteorologists are not baffled by its track. 🙂 It’s been a pretty darn simple track so far. 😉

  48. MLB teams were 487-0 when leading by 6 runs entering the 8th inning this season…

    …until today. 😉

  49. After tomorrow, there will be 23 90-degree days at Logan.

    TK – Is the 1983 record of 30 in jeopardy?

    Eric has the heat return next week. I bet I answered my own question? 🙁

    1. No, the record is not in jeopardy.

      One important note is even though Boston has recorded 23 90-degree days, the ACTUAL number is lower than that. And I think they may have their final one tomorrow (bad sensor not withstanding).

      1. Unless you see a significant pattern change, we still have plenty of September left on the calendar by my count. Even October has some 90s in its history around here, just last Columbus Day itself IIRC.

        1. 90s are hard to come by after September 15. We’re running out of time. And this is definitely no 1983.

    1. It’s only onto one of the many tracks we’ll see before the ultimate solution is known. 🙂

      2. I know. 🙂 if you look on my facebook you will see another comment I made with it, won’t post it on here as it goes political.

  52. Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    The setup around #Florence remains fascinatingly complex, but can be annotated. The first “inflection point” occurs Sun PM, when a passing trough provides a northward escape route. If she misses, chances of Eastern US impacts increase as a ridge blocks her to the north.

    Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan’s response to that tweet
    Yup. Worth watching but still an eternity away. If this pattern looks similar by this weekend we can start getting worried.

  53. Thank you, TK.

    John, one of my favorite spots in the North End is Artu. It’s gotten fancier over the years, but so haven’t all the North End restaurants. I used to go to Il Villagio, which was a tiny restaurant with maybe 12 tables, but that closed a few years ago.

    Philip, I’ve been hoping for cooler weather and it certainly hasn’t yet happened on a consistent basis. However, I believe TK is right about 90 plus days (and even the ton of humidity we’ve been enduring) being numbered come September 15th. Looking at the model projections I also don’t think next week’s return of heat will be as bad as this week. In fact, I don’t think 90 will happen. Perhaps this is wishful thinking. I sincerely hope not.

    The Brandon Phillips story is a great one. He stayed with the Paw Sox, hoping to get a chance to be called up to the big club, because he is still in search of a ring. The guy’s a great athlete and clearly can still hit 95 mph fastballs a long way. He did it in front of family and friends – he’s from the Atlanta area. The subtle bat flip. Awesome.

    Did you notice, by the way, that Atlanta was much cooler today than Boston. Everything is topsy turvy this year.

    1. Nice to hear from you, Joshua. One point I have seen all summer when speaking to my sister in law…Atlanta has been cooler than we have been multiple times this summer. The DP has also been lower multiple times. Topsy turvey it is.

  54. The GFS is making a classic track error. It’s not as bad an error as the other models. But we’ve seen this before. The glaring problems with these models show run to run and a lot of people just ignore them. Oh well. 🙂

    1. Sorry, but not much margin for error there. This would be a CAT 4 for sure and perhaps a CAT 5. Don’t need that around these parts. I can’t even imagine
      the destruction.

      Thankfully that is still 7 1/2 days out there and much can and likely will change.

      Still it is way too dangerous a storm to ignore. We must still monitor, even if likely scenario is OTS.

  58. Morning thoughts…

    First things first, keep an eye to the sky this afternoon. Most of the hi-res guidance suggests a fairly active day. SPC maintains a marginal risk. High instability but marginal shear suggests damaging winds and heavy downpours are the biggest threats. Could be one of our last traditional convective days of the season.

    Florence… No big changes overnight other than, at long last, she is finally feeling the effects of wind shear and is weakening significantly. That’ll continue for the next day or two. Longer range, still a lot of uncertainty. My thought process is the same: too early to commit to anything, some form of OTS more likely, but can’t write it off. We’ll know a lot more in the next couple days I think.

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