Irene Post Mortem / The Week Ahead

47 Comments

11:50PM

Irene thoughts and summary… Though the storm itself has departed, other than leftover gusty winds tonight, Irene is not done impacting the region. There are many people that have perceived this storm to be lame, or wimpy, and that may be at least partly due to the media’s overall message that doom was descending upon all of us. Call it what you will, or blame who you will. I am not really looking to editorialize on this blog. The facts are, though some areas did see tree damage and coastal flooding, a large part of eastern New England dodged a bullet, not including the nearly half million that lost  power during the storm, many of whom are still without and may be for another day to few days. Peak wind gusts were about as expected in eastern areas, 45-75 MPH (a little stronger in some of the higher elevations such as Blue Hill in Milton, which gusted just over 80 MPH). There were swaths of the Boston area that largely escape the strongest winds, with their peak gusts landing in the lower range above. Again, these are the lucky ones. West of the storm track, which was across far western New England, was where the real trouble was. Some of you may have seen some of the pictures out of VT and parts of NH tonight. The flooding there is very serious, and in some places very damaging, due to the heavy rainfall that was forecast to fall and did fall to the west of the storm’s path. Significant impact was also seen in the Mid Atlantic down to eastern North Carolina. The death toll from the storm is around 20 (don’t have an official number as of the writing of this).

Elsewhere in the tropics… With Irene in the main picture today, Tropical Storm Jose formed almost unnoticed near Bermuda today, but this weak storm will remain over water as it moves to the north and will never be a factor in the weather along the US East Coast. A new very organized tropical wave that came off Africa has been passing south of the Cape Verde Islands in the same region that Irene formed, and will likely become the next named system (Katia) early this coming week, but will be over far open ocean for many days to come.

What’s coming up this week in the Boston area? The gusty winds of tonight will be diminishing toward morning but there will still be some breezy conditions into the day Monday between the departing Irene and a high pressure area moving in. Expect a much drier, bright day Monday. Nice weather should rule on Tuesday as well but we may see some clouds as a weak disturbance slides north of the region. Another high pressure area builds in Wednesday with nice weather. We then close the book on August.

As September begins, it looks like high pressure will be in general control for at least the first couple days of the month Thursday & Friday. It’s a bit early to really be focusing on Labor Day Weekend at this time, so I’ll take a stab at it briefly on the extended outlook, but don’t pay much attention. We’ll handle the forecast for the final holiday weekend of summer 2011 as we get to midweek.

I hope everybody that has suffered some kind of impact and misfortune from Irene can recover quickly.

The forecast for the Boston area for the week ahead…

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Cooler and drier. Low 55-60. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing toward dawn.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and dry. High 80-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and dry. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Mild and dry. High 77-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 80.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 81.

47 thoughts on “Irene Post Mortem / The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, as always thanks for the update. I think there was hype over Irene but there was death and devastation also — indicating what even a minimal hurricane can do. Katia, though not real as of my post here, could actually interact with the mainland so I guess that’s one to watch.

    I did notice your that your forecast for LD weekend differs from BZ Barry’s in that he indicated possible rain storm for Sunday. It would be great for all in NE if we could have a nice upcoming weekend.

  2. Thanks for the update TK.

    Can’t agree more with longshot!! I think everyone needs a nice labor day weekend forecast!! Let’s hope it pans out.

    1. Accessing power at my dad’s in Pembroke. A good part of Marshfield, Humarocak and other south shore towns are out since about noon yesterday. The NStar trucks are crawling down streets, checking out lines, seeing where the damage is. A couple big trees are down here and there, one of our friends house in Marshfield has a large tree lying on its roof, thankfully, I dont think it punctured it…..Beautiful start to the day, no ocean flooding, in fact the tide was as low as I’ve seen it in a while this morning.

      This morning I heard on the radio that there’s a new tropical depression near the Cape Verde Islands. I changed the station. 🙂

      Heading back home with coffee for my wife, muffins for the kids. I’ll check in again once the power returns. Have a good day all.

  3. There is a Tropical Depression Twelve of the Cape Verde variety. But it looks great out so I think I’ll go for my morning constitutional.

  4. We are headed back to Humarock. Good to know pembroke has some power. Still no power Framingham and absolutely no sign of nstar trucks

  5. Some thoughts:

    1. Many thanks go out to TK for the constant REAL Irene updates.
    2. Even though Irene impacted the area minimally, there was damage. I can only
    Imagine if we were hit with a CAT 2???? We were spared.

    Now to enjoy some nice weather.

    1. Old Salty – please keep sending these model updates. Enjoying this nice weather, but it still is good to know what’s going on.

    2. I believe longer range models have it coming up the coast. I hope it takes a hard turn north and then OTS. Of course, every time I route for an OTS, it comes inland. This time I will use reverse pyschology. 🙂

  8. Shortly after my last blog yesterday – we had a squall come through. Some leaves or branches went flying by and I called out to my husband, “Debris! Debris!” Ok – guess I watch too many tornado movies and Storm Chaser shows! 🙂 Anyway, shortly after that, our lights started to flicker and then we got a partial outage, including my computer. And the winds remained gusty throughout the rest of the day into the night. We regained power around 5 a.m. Our cell power has been in and out.

    It was a memorable storm – could have been worse – ‘though it was bad enough, some fatalities and plenty of damage. Seeing signs that things could brew up again at some point. Right now – I want to enjoy the beautiful weather.

    Vicki – glad you’re on your way back and I hope you enjoy the rest of your vacation.

    TK – as always, great job throughout this storm keeping us updated w/everything. Thanks.

    1. Sorry Rainshine. Should have read more before posting my question above. Glad you got power back. And that you didn’t have damage / just debris :):)

  9. Re; model output

    I am happy to post these. My only fear is that people will get sick of them.
    If anyone cares not to see them or at least see less of them, please let me know.

    I am just hoping that people here are just as interested in them as I am.

    What happened yesterday scared the Bleep out of me, not for what actually happened,
    but what could easily haved happened with a strong enough system making landfall in the exact worse location.

  10. I just wanted to hop back on and say “thank you!” to TK and everyone else for all of the hype-free updates and explanations over the past week. It was very helpful, and much appreciated.

    (For the record — I’m in Millis, MA, and we were very fortunate. No flooding, nothing big fell on anything important, and though we lost power at 10am Sunday, it came back at 7pm.)

  12. As for the “hype” and constant coverage with Irene, I am going to be in the minority here to say that it was very warranted. If you want to call me a “wimp” then so be it, but this storm scared the heck out of me. I remember Gloria and losing power and seeing quite a bit of damage around my neighborhood and then Bob with its heavy rains. Thankfully, all I have to do today is mearly sweep up some leaves that had blown from other trees and not have to worry about damage or being without power. Surprisingly, the lights never flickered even once to my knowledge. I have been through far lesser storms and lights flickered a bit.

    Now as for snowstorms, whether it’s 4 inches or 4 feet, excessive coverage IMO is not necessary at all. Updates every 30 or 60 minutes is plenty. In fact, during the blizzard of ’78 IIRC there were updates every 30 minutes during regular commercial breaks. You could watch a game show and not miss anything at all and still be informed…those were the days. 🙂

    But again, as for “tropical” systems I do believe that wall-to-wall coverage is sometimes warranted.

    BTW, I haven’t seen any posts from Jimmy in a while…I hope he is OK.

  13. Phillip I 2nd your thoughts. I rather them be safe then sorry. I do have an issue with the national media like TWC, they are unreal with the music and domesday scenario.

    Big shout out to TK for all the updates.

    OS I also love the models and try to post especially during winter which is my favorite season for weather following.

  14. OS keep the links coming.

    I agree with everyone and thank TK for all of the time and effort he puts into the blog and for the many welcome updates. And thanks to everyone else here for knowledge and guidance

  16. 12Z GFS at 240 Hours (10 Days out):

    A near miss.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F29%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=240&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    This means NOTHING at 10 days out. I only post it so we can monitor trends.

  17. Hello everyone…. I am at a relatives house right now since I have no power which is why I am have not been posting. Hopefully it will comeback in the next few days. From what I saw Irene never made landfall in SNE but just to the west of CT. At least the weather will be great this week for anyone who has to clean up and you have no power like me at least were not talking 3 H weather. I see Katia could form and hopefully it will take the curve and head out sea before getting to the east coast.

    1. Hi, JimmyJames – glad to hear you are ok, sorry you have no power. Hopefully, Katia will stay out to sea.

  19. It is in an omnious position, but clearly far enough North to take that turn
    OTS!!! Let us hope and certainly there is much time to do so!

    1. OS. We aren’t talking about any more this week are we?? An earthquake and hurricane turned TS is enuf excitement for one vacation 😉

  20. Vicki,

    NOTHING this week.

    IF anything were to come, It would be somewhere in the time frame of early-mid next week.

  21. Thanks everyone and hopefully the power will be back soon. I actually caught up on a lot of sleep lost last night from the past week watching what Irene will do.
    The one thing about TD 12 or soon to be Katia that when there that far out in the Atlantic if they stregthen quick they tend to curve out to sea. Lets hope that is what happens here. I’ll talk to you all tomorrow!

  23. Jimmy, glad you’re OK and I hope you can get your power back on sooner than expected! 🙂

    Fwiw, today’s CPC 6-10/8-14 day outlook has a plume of above normal precip up and down the east coast. Assuming that this is “Katia” hope this does not verify.

    Has anyone ever heard of the name “Katia”?

  24. Hi everyone- sounds like for the most part everybody weathered the storm. Sorry to hear that some people are still without power, we lost ours for about 6-7 hrs during the storm. Some parts of Pembroke still have no power, my wife said we lost It 4times today and Pembroke has called off the first day of school tomorrow. Like I said yesterday trees were dropping here left and right, If the storm had stayed just like that for a longer period of time we would have had serious damage here just with that wind. All around town trees and wires down. A huge one came down at townhall, I do not live far from there. This storm will cost some people money. My neighbor had a few trees come down in the front $2ooo. Everybody stops to look at his house, my house is right across the street. No trees fell in my yard. The one tree that caught my attention is the one a few doors down, the entire tree just uprooted. Also to note the trees I am seeing down are really big trees. Also on a sad note If no one heard the man who left to go to his job on the dpw, mind you to help cleanup lost his life when he was electracuted by a wire that came down on his porch, I guess he touched his railings and thats how he passed. This was in some mass town, sad. I think tom may be without power still. I heard on the radio they were giving out ice at the high school. In many ways this storm was alot like gloria down here, power was out for sometime, lots of downed trees and schools were closed for a week. The Kinston mall was closed today.

  25. The man who passed was in Southbridge, he was only 52. Also TK thank’s so much for all your hard work. You and Harvey are my favorite.

  26. I was just out front talking with one of the little neighbors who lives about 3-4 streets behind us, he still has no power and may not have It back till next Monday.

  27. I heard on WBZ-TV news that all Unitil customers got their power back. Maybe that is a good sign for customers of other utilities.

  28. My daughter and husband brought a generator. We have fridge running and will be able to use hair dryers in morning. That’s reverse priority. Nstar told daughter at our home in Framingham maybe two more days but they just saw truck at end of our street. We notice more of marshfield is slowly getting power John very glad you have yours!! Unitel was company that messed up big time during ice storm a couple of years ago wasn’t it or do I have that wrong?

    After all that daughter just txtd that they have power in Framingham so maybe when they say two or three days it doesn’t matter:)

    1. Sorry about the power there, but your back at the beach for a great week. How do things look there. At 4:30 yesterday the ocean was calm. At least Tom has an extended day off tomorrow, no school in Marshfield either. Wednesday is on the fence with both his town and mine. For here they will make the decission by 3pm tomorrow.

  29. I’m back! LOL! Has anyone heard from Tom?

    We lost power at 11am yesterday and got it back at 6pm tonight. Lost everything in the fridge except what we packed in the cooler.

    1. Coastal- a good part of Marshfield is still without power. He did post from his dads this morning in Pembroke. They were giving out ice today in his town. I bet he is glad to be off tomorrow and could be longer.

        1. Coastal is the man-LOL. Ok I’m done playing. It’s a good thing someone in my house is in a good mood. YIKES.

  31. Vicki- I was just sitting here thinking. When you think of it your not in the worst place to have no power. Nothing like some candles going in an old summer cottage, the ocean to cool you at night. I think It sounds cool. I know easy to say since I have power. LOL.

  32. Hi Vicki,

    To answer your question, yes, that is Unitil that messed up during an ice storm a couple years ago. I guess that they have made considerable improvements in restoring power to their customers. However, I am currently listening to Dan Rea on WBZ radio and the other companies National Grid and N-Star are not responding to their customers. Many towns still have no power and the main complaints are that their customers can’t talk to humans…only recordings.

    1. We have national Grid here. They have called the house the last 2nights with a recorded update. Hope everybody gets it back soon.

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