Monday Forecast

158 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
As far as our forecast is concerned there are no significant changes to make for today’s blog update. The remains of TS Gordon combined with Midwest low pressure bring wet weather into the region during today and deliver humidity back to the region tonight and Tuesday, along with a shower/t-storm risk, that will last into midweek. It should dry out a bit later in the week as a little drier air works down from the Maritimes with another in a seemingly endless string of high pressure areas building across southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, the Florence watch will continue with the only impact here being increased ocean swells later in the week. The storm itself will impact the Carolinas more directly starting at midweek and it is still unclear if it will plow straight inland or slow down and start meandering. Hope to have a clearer picture of this by tomorrow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east, steadiest north and west of Boston. Highs 61-67. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering to showers. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 58-65 early then slowly rising. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-74. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers favoring the South Coast. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers near the South Coast. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
High pressure will control our weather which will be fair and warmer than average September 15-16. During this time, we’ll be watching what Florence has done. Depending on the outcome, we may or may not see indirect impact here, but if there is going to be remnant rain, the September 17-18 period seems most likely with fair weather returning for the end of the period. Many details to work out.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)
Still lower than average confidence on this time period, but leaning toward a dry and warm start then a cooler trend, with mainly dry weather.

158 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK.

    Today (September 10) is the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season. Fitting on a day that there are three hurricanes in the basin. Combined with Olivia heading towards Hawaii and a developing super typhoon in the West Pacific, the global tropics are in a remarkably active phase. Florence is rapidly intensifying this morning and likely to strike the Carolinas as a major hurricane. Coastal wind and surge and inland flooding will all be life threatening issues towards the end of the week.

      1. Thank you, JPD.

        If – and I know it is a big IF – she barrels in as a 4, what are the chances she does the same damage well inland that Hugo did?

        That begs another question. Is that cone based on her current strength or the possible Cat 4 she could become?

        1. Hard to say. IF it maintained decent forward speed, then it could do damage well inland. If it slows to a crawl as
          it approaches the coast (which some models are hinting at), then imho, most damage would be done near the
          coast.

          Have to keep an eye on the evolution of Flo.

  11. I am not sure but the blogs that come from there to me are made easy to understand on why this something is happening.

    1. Excellent read, JJ. Thank you for sharing. It was very easy to understand and well written.

      If there is a chance Flo could recurve and go back out, that would indeed be horrific.

  12. I fully realize that the NAM isn’t a goof Hurricane model, but I am posting this
    loop anyway. It shows a Distinct turn to the North and keeps Florence “just” off shore.

    https://imgur.com/a/KWyP3Ew

    Wondering if the GFS will pick up on this theme. It did a bit on the 6Z run, but
    still made landfall.

  15. So far, it looks to me as if the GFS is following the NAM with a North turn
    and “just” off shore solution. We shall see as more frames come out.

    2. Florence has been upgraded to a Cat 4. Hoping there is still a chance for the North turn. It sounds like that is still on the table. I watch a scope yesterday from Bernie Rayno and he mentioned there was still a way out.

    1. Should be and why I would have left yesterday. Sitting in countless miles of traffic just does not appeal to me.

      1. What stinks for me was that 2 weeks ago, I had a plan to go down to Virginia and North Carolina, Plans have of coursed changed, It was to look at some schools.

  21. Tweet from weatheroptics
    UKIE/GFS vs ECMWF. A forecasting headache for sure. American and UK models like the idea of an outer banks landfall/impact with the worst of the storm north, while the ECMWF stays steadfast (as of 00z) on a southerly NC/SC landfall & impact. Again, 12z ECMWF will be interesting.

    1. I was just talking to an individual who lives about 60 miles west of Charleston. She is trying to decide what to do. She said the last two times she packed up her young child, dog, etc and headed to VA, it turned out to be a false alarm. Her office has not shut down yet.

  23. Thanks Scott77 for your post above because 96 hrs out, I find the model differences beyond infuriating.

    And potentially deadly. Someone sees the GFS in mid coastal Carolina and well, hey, we are all set down here in Wilmington.

    Or, someone sees the EURO, hey, why are we having to evacuate the Outer Banks?

    We must all have a bit of math and physics to help create our own weather model here at WHW, don’t we ?? But sincerely, very, very frustrating !!!!!!!

    1. No problem it’s the least I can do. Don’t want to single anyone out, but I appreciate everyone’s thoughts on this blog.

  25. Tweet from Ed Vallee on 12z EURO
    Ugh. European holds serve with a track very close to Wilmington, NC. This brings rain and wind impacts into Fayetteville, Charlotte, and Raleigh as well. Devastating impacts SC border to Emerald Isle, NC with 100mph+ winds, and 6-12″ rainfall.

  29. I don’t even think I could have come up with the FV3-GFS’s 12z solution on my middle school fantasy doodles. 3 landfalls on the SE coast over a period of a week and a half from the same tropical cyclone…

  30. I heard a news reporter say that no Cat 4 storm has ever made landfall north of South Carolina, obviously since records are available. Is this true?

    1. Offhand I think that’s true, and this probably won’t be a 4 if/when it makes landfall. It will be a 2 or 3. Rapid weakening ensues about 200 miles from the coast.

        1. A combination of land interaction, a little bit of dry air ingestion, and a little cooler water between the G.S. & the coast. The hurricane should be slowing, and this will allow more impact. If it was moving faster, probably not nearly as much.

        1. As I recall, Hugo was moving like a high speed train when it plowed into the SC islands at a middle of the road cat 4

          Is it better they plow in or are slow. I can see very unscientific pros and cons with each. Slowly means more rain and faster means to travels further at a greater strength…….maybe.

  31. Ryan Maue Twitter

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039232706704486400

    ERIC Fisher Twitter

    Eric Fisher
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    Verified account

    @ericfisher
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    More Eric Fisher Retweeted Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
    Interesting that nearly the entire 51-member Euro ensemble is south of where the GFS wants to put #Florence. Still would say overall NC has the highest risk of landfall and exact zone will get whittled down over the next 24 hours.

  33. NAM (taking into account it has weaknesses) is forecasting a slightly weaker high pressure ridge to the north on the most recent run compared to previous. If correct this allows for the potential of a more northwest turn a little bit sooner. That, if it were to occur, may have significant implications on the eventual track and whether or not there is a straight landfall or a meandering storm.

    It also leaves the option of NO landfall very much on the table. Again this is just regarding the NAM’s forecast.

    2. No. Flo is still about 1300 miles away, or about as far as half the way across the continental US. If Atlanta ever gets rain associated with Florence, it won’t be before sometime on the weekend, and it may never happen at all.

        2. Yes, and I get models are not consistent…… but we have a very major storm sitting off the coast within 3 days and I’m getting the frustration from those in the area. I’m hoping the Mets in the area are tossing their hats in with advice.

          1. They are doing the best they can. The problem is and I will continue to say this because it’s correct…there is TOO MUCH INFO available to the general public. It’s a big problem. We didn’t have this problem before. There is TOO MUCH emphasis put on run to run to run to run to freaking run with these things by media. It’s not working! Hardly anybody gets that. At least y’all are educated enough to understand that here, but forget the general public. That major part seems to be continually missing in the message from media.

            1. I’m not sure what you mean. Do you think the Mets should not be stepping away from models to advise the general public?

              I’m also not sure what problem we didn’t have before.

              1. Yes, there was once a time when they didn’t plaster spaghetti plots, Euros, GFS’s, NAM’s, etc etc for every little event. It is not necessary. That information is meant to be ingested by the meteorologist, who then comes up with a forecast and presents THAT to the public. It may be old school but it’s a hell of a lot less confusing.

                I have no idea why people can’t freaking see this! And the stranglehold the ratings game has is killing any chance of anybody seeing this clearly that is associated with that method of information dissemination. SAK and I talk about this all the time, but we learned this art and science the correct way.

                1. I guess I’m not making myself clear. My concern is not what they post ahead but what they advise three days out. And they are awfully vague.

  39. Noticed a couple media sources advertise the Euro’s track with the GFS rain totals…

    NOPE. Can’t do that. Just another example of EVERYTHING I bark about. Fact. Enough with that bullshit.

  40. Ok, taking a break. I’m going to focus on some in-house projects, photo posting, and other pleasant things for a while. Health = PRIORITY. Doctor tomorrow. 🙂

  41. OH yeah one more thing since I’m still riled…
    A local page run by a non-met, when asked if today’s rain could start as snow because it was so chilly, basically said no it cannot, but freezing rain was possible in a few areas.

    Yeah, with a low in the lower 60s. I mean, just how stupid can you get?

    2. Again….if people do not do their due diligence and instead rely on one source for anything, the fault lies in their lap. When a weather app is wrong constantly and a person complains but keeps using it….

      I don’t need to say more.

      It is getting difficult to fix stupid and It seems blaming outside sources only keeps folks from adopting personal responsibility

      Just my view. I could be 110% incorrect

      1. Oh no, you’re 100% correct. I couldn’t agree more. I don’t always mention that in my rants but perhaps I was assuming it was assumed. 😉

        1. Sadly, I don’t think personal responsibility is abundant in this day. And you can be applauded for thinking it is. I’m not skeptical about much but that pretty much tops my list 🙂

            1. Nah. It never hurts. I can do the same with trust.

              From a large view…you can’t change media…it has always played to what people want. Makes sense really. You play the audience.

              You can’t change people. But I think you can take comfort in the fact that it really isn’t the majority.

              What you can do is exactly what you are doing. Set an example. And that you do..and do it well.

              The option is to continue batting your head on the wall which will accomplish nothing

              This moment brought to you by a woman who bangs her head against her computer screen as a regular diet 🙂 🙂

      2. I disagree with you a bit. I’m sure you’re not surprised. 😉

        People are busy. They have jobs, kids to deal with and getting weather info from 10 different sources and doing the DD on this stuff isn’t at the top of the list. They tune into their favorite affiliate or other weather source and expect the forecaster there will be as accurate as they can be. Most people don’t sit on a weather blog 24/7 and follow this stuff. In between going to work, getting kids to school, practice, and living their lives, they tune in for a few minutes and get the weather. It really doesn’t have to do with personal responsibility, it has to do with the fact a meteorologist gives them info and they expect it to be as close to correct as possible, it’s on the met to give people the info they need and delivered in such a way to give them all the caveats involved. You can’t expect John Q Public to understand the nuances of a model plot

        1. And how many of the apps are run by Mets….

          And if they are not “sitting on a weather blog 24/7” they would not be aware of models.

          Let me understand….your view is that if a person relies on a weather app or any source that is consistently wrong that he or she should not change sources?

          My experience is that our local media is responsible….not hard to tune in …TV or internet.

          1. Sadly, a lot of that is an excuse for not assuming personal responsibility. I managed to raise three amazing kids, hold a full time job from home without outside help and start my own business and still knew the difference between a good and not so good source. And I’m not saying I didn’t run across bad sources.. I just knew it was up to me to find something better

            1. I’ll disagree with you….once again.

              I’m not sure I’ve ever interacted with anyone I’ve disagreed with more than you.

              1. And I’ve often interacted with folks who say they disagree but cannot explain why. You tend to hit and run…maybe this time you can explain

                What part is it you disagree with?

                You should find another source of the one you are using is consistently wrong?

                Our local Mets do the very best they can and are easy to access?

                Even busy folks can find a legitimate source or two?

                1. I disagree with almost everything you say, day in and day out. I do not like you. I can’t stand you. I. actually loathe you and wish you would disappear. But alas, you do not. I try not to reply and interact with you, but your like a car wreck and I can’t look away.

                2. Funny thing is that I expect people to disagree with me. It really is whaf makes the world an interesting placeand how we all learn. Heck, I can disagree with my own comments and rethink them and change my mind.

                  But thank you for your honesty.

                3. And psssttt. You just gave a perfect example of personal responsibility…so see how we can be on the same page 🙂

              2. Blackstone your a piece of work. One thing for sure is that you never can back your crap up. You are a person behind a keyboard I feel won’t be willing to say 75% of the crap your saying to the person’s face. Most wish you gone as well. I am guessing you have a very small group of people in your life that you actually spend time with, but they better agree with you 100% with your views or they are out of your circle. Really sad in my opinion, heck I have had girlfriends that voted republican, not for the jerk thats in charge at the moment, I also have friends that voted for the idiot, that does not mean I will never talk to them or hang with them, we have other interests, We all here have interests in the weather. So act like it or are you just hear to be disrespectful? Blackstone if you did not make it personal you had a point, People are very quick now a days. Unfortunately in my opinion. But people on their cells can use apps as in the weather channel or accuweather that have weather forecasting video’s. Heck Noaa also has stuff that they have that you can add to your phone. There are aways, its the cheap stuff that is based on one weather model thats the issue.

      1. Remember a few days ago I said what we’re about to see are multiple examples of model inadequacies?

        2. He it finally has landfall near Willington, NC. It corrected itself. 😀 😀 😀

          I don’t know what to think of it all. It sounds like you
          at least give some credence to the notion of a weakening
          ridge that would allow a more Northward track. So, it will
          be intriguing to see how it plays out.

          It’s a shame a few days out, we still have such model
          discrepancy. I HATE model discrepancy, I mean large ones. I expect smallish ones.

          1. Warm core systems behave very very differently from cold core ones and these models really are not designed to handle them well. It’s just about impossible to program a model to handle both kinds, which is why they are trying to build and tweak tropical models, which still have their own set of issues.

    1. Seems to have creeped a little bit north. Is this a correction? And more
      is to come? Sounds like You’re Grandmother is on the roof.

      1. I think if it does form up and ultimately enter the gulf, it will track further south and west and probably be a Texas system. Initial feeling is not intense, but any tropical system can be a flood threat even if it’s relatively weak.

  46. Looks like the hurricane models are slowly moving it north a bit. From 0z to 12z it appears that way. The NHC plot still shows a Wilmington hit. I guess the NHC moves these things slowly. Be interested to see what the 11 pm AST update looks like.

  47. I thought I’d seen it all until I spotted this sad display of ranting on this evening’s blog. The venom being spewed towards Vicki is uncalled for. Specifically, this bit of Blackstone’s rage (about a disagreement on personal responsibility for vetting sources) is distasteful and ludicrous at the same time:

    “I disagree with almost everything you say, day in and day out. I do not like you. I can’t stand you. I. actually loathe you and wish you would disappear.”

    First sentence. Okay. Certainly, there can be people we disagree with. Second sentence is odd, particularly since we communicate with each other (mostly) by way of blog posts. While we may not like what people say on a blog, it’s peculiar to say the least to then say we don’t like those people. Third sentence is both redundant and designed to set up the fury disseminated in the next sentence. Fourth sentence (well, without the punctuation point after the I) is so utterly bizarre that it defies explanation. There’s no-one on earth I’d say this about. Well, maybe a murderous dictator like Kim Jong-Un who rubs out his own blood relatives. But certainly never a fellow blogger.

  48. Florence is struggling. I was just chatting with a friend & forecaster about it. Hurricane Irma looked much better at the same latitude in terms of cloud tops and overall structure, and was weaker (100 knots).

    Here’s a sat loop of not-so-cold-topped Flo, also starting to feel dry air and soon to be impacted by the outflow from that Caribbean disturbance. But a lot of this is being ignored due to “model forecasts”.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

          1. Hoping for a nice glimmer when I visit the doctor tomorrow…

            Soon I’ll have a test, confirm that it was all just a normal flare, no sign of cancer, etc. I’m sure that’s the case but it’s good for peace of mind. 🙂

            I’m very high cancer risk with this condition. But being checked every 2 years will prevent it because it’s extremely curable if caught early.

          2. My fear from this storm is the rainfall and possibility of devastating floods (remember Irene and how much havoc she wreaked in the interior; places like Vermont). Not so much the wind with Florence, except at the immediate coastline. During this summer the area that will get flooding rains already has a very saturated ground, with rivers that are already overflowing in some areas. From North Carolina to New Jersey there has been a lot of rain for several months, and this storm will add several more inches, if not more, to some locales, particularly in North Carolina and Virginia, but also part of the Mid-Atlantic region.

  49. Vicki – you add sunshine to my life every day I see your posts.

    TK – you are in my thoughts and prayers. I hope you find – as I do – that my pain – in – the – a$&& health problems just remind me to appreciate every single day just that much more.

    Blackstone – go somewhere else. We don’t have use for that kind of hostility here.

    1. Mama Mia thank you. I can say with all honesty that I always smile when I see you’ve posted. I hope your day is great and you have found the peace and happiness you hoped to find in your new home

  52. Trying to interpret graph of first pass through the center this morning ….

    Around 952 mb and max flight level wind of 110 knots.

    She’s come down a bit in intensity.

  54. Very short forecast update posted. This is one of my cheap version blogs, but very low energy today so taking it very slow. I’ve experienced this in the past right before flares came to an end so let’s hope…

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