Thursday Forecast

125 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
One more unsettled day today as an old boundary slowly dissipates over the region but lots of moisture remains in place with little to push it away. High pressure builds over the region starting Friday lasting through the remainder of this period with great weather. Discussion about Florence will be in the comments section between myself and anybody else that wants to participate. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms near the South Coast until mid morning. Highs 70-78. Wind light NE to N.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny finish. Highs 72-80. Wind light N.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
A risk of some wet weather front a front moving through from the west and possibly some moisture associated with the remains of Florence in the September 18-19 window, dry and cooler September 20-21 then a quick warm-up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
A more progressive pattern, starting warm followed by a shower threat then a shot of cooler/drier air.

125 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. TK, how does next weekend look up in the White Mountains?

    I have a fire pit I have to building on Saturday, rain or shine or ……

    2. I am heading up there this weekend as well to do some hiking. Weather looks absolutely gorgeous….sunny and upper 70’s both days!

        1. I have not hiked Mt Carrigain yet but it is one of many on my bucket list of hikes in the Whites that I haven’t done yet and would like to do. The views from the top look great and I am sure it gets less hiker traffic compared to some of the others based on its somewhat more desolate location.

          Not sure what we will do yet on Saturday but definitely want to get above treeline. Views should be great with the clear skies.

      1. Would be awesome. I recall fishing several labor day’s in upstate ME when it was in the area of freezing as we headed out.

  7. Is it clear yet when Florence wiki come on shore and where. If she plays around long enough is it possible an opening could be created for her to go out to sea?

  9. This is very typical of what I’ve been reading. The fear is that people will see a Cat 2 and let down their guard. The P&C and a couple of others I read this am are making it clear that the storm continues to carry dangers.

    I did what I do here when we have a storm of any sort approaching. I rely first and foremost on WHW. My next choice is local sources that I know and have the most confidence in. I never, ever rely on national news or weather. It’s my understanding from folks I’ve spoken to ….and I stress there have not been many…that they do the same. It would make sense since local understands immediate concerns while national deals with anything but.

    https://www.postandcourier.com/

    1. I should have added that this seems to have answered my question when and where above. I’m still curious about whether there is any possibility of her heading out to sea.

      1. This exemplifies what I’ve said..
        There’s a mentality out there that once a storm reaches a certain level (cat 4 here) that it’s forever there….

        1. You are absolutely correct that some have that mentality. The person I just mentioned to M.L. also said she had left for the last two and they turned out to be Cat 2 so she was not paying attention to this one.

          So along with your comment, it also brings in the concern for future that people will not believe a storm is a threat. But that is not what the local media is reporting. If you read the P&C, you can see that it makes it very clear that Flo is still a threat regardless of its category.

          It again comes down to personal responsibility.

      2. I am not surprised. I don’t watch typically national media for reasons said above. I did, however, watch CNN last night because it was the channel I came across that had coverage. I don’t have the weather channel although I am not a fan of it either.

        CNN covered the storm in a responsible manner. They had a storm chaser and individual who had flow into the storm discuss the potential even though she is downgraded. There were folks who discussed the concern with regard to flooding. They were the ones who prompted me to read the about the farming in NC. I posted two links last night.

        One comment that I found more than interesting is that there is a new generation down in that area of folks who have never had first hand experience with a storm such as this. The individual making the comment pointed out that many feel if they don’t have flood insurance that they are safe no matter what. One of the people I spoke with on either Monday or Tuesday made that exact comment to me as a justification for remaining in her home.

        I tuned to FOX for a bit and it was out of control so you are absolutely right, as is anyone else who is concerned with hype, that it is out there. I suspect I am not seeing hype as much because it is my nature to discount anything that hypes from that point forward and move on to find a source that doesn’t.

        My sister in law said she had not seen any hype, just a list of precautions and possibilities, in the Atlanta media. I have not read GA news…just NC and SC.

      3. of what I have seen on TV, they are not calling it a bust but a situation in which the public will not follow warnings of this being a really bad storm. Its not the winds thats the issue its the rain and storm surge with the wind combo. Does not need to be a cat 4 or 5 to be devastating.

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Mobile sitting in the waiting room of my ophthalmologist.

    SPC has a tornado watch out for much of Eastern NC.

  11. Thanks TK.

    A bit short on time but wanted to give my $.02 to think about today… so here goes:

    The Saffir-Simpson Scale is an antiquated, overly simplistic metric that is beneath the needs and abilities of modern hazard communication. I really hope to one day see it replaced as the go-to method of classifying hurricanes.

    2. Brilliant. It took your comment for me to figure out what I’ve been struggling to understand. This is just plain common sense

  12. I wanted to send a shout out to Keith Hingham for the suggestion of
    that Scanner App. It is totally awesome!! Many thanks

      1. I was just randomly selecting stations from North Carolina.
        Pretty interesting. Some guy was talking about how worried
        he was about 2 oak trees in his yard.

        The NOAA weather radio broadcasts were way cool as well.
        Was listing to one from Bern? Bern county?? don’t remember
        exactly.

    1. Thank you, sir.

      Now my request to you is to please rest. Not an easy day for you under normal circumstances so extra TLC is the order of the day

      1. Doing my best. I was out a bit late and ended up driving in the post midnight thunderstorm. Feeling it a bit. 🙂

    1. I have a couple of responses to that, but I’ll keep them to myself.

      BUT, I will say one thing. That is freakin HILARIOUS!!!!
      Thanks for making my day!!!!

    1. with big enough storms I think they do, of course I do not have the weather channel, I have stupid accu weather that stay inside all day. I wish verison would get rid of accu weather, I understand the differences between the weather channel and accuweather but I prefer the weather channel.

    3. Awesome visual. Thank you. CNN had a video also of a storm surge and how it impacts houses. The part that caught my attention was its impact on homes that are raised. Most are about 9 feet which puts the surge into the house.

  22. Weakening trend to continue. Flooding from rain and storm surge greatest threats and still should be taken seriously.

    1. Just curious. Up until the last day or so, it seems most meteorologists following Florence were predicting it would stay a 4 and could actually reach a 5. I’m not minimizing the potential danger, but just curious as to your opinion on what caused the weakening. Thanks in advance.

      1. Not TK, but he addressed this question earlier:

        Tom says: September 10, 2018 at 3:24 PM – What are the things that will cause that weakening prior to landfall ?

        Woods Hill Weather says: September 10, 2018 at 3:43 PM – A combination of land interaction, a little bit of dry air ingestion, and a little cooler water between the G.S. & the coast. The hurricane should be slowing, and this will allow more impact. If it was moving faster, probably not nearly as much.

  23. From US tidal guage website, some current surge values

    Actual water depth vs expected water depth

    Wrightsville Beach, Wilmington, NC : 6.535 vs 4.738 ft

    Beaufort, NC : 5.259 ft vs 3.945 ft

    Cape Hatteras, NC : 1.585 ft vs 0.743 ft

  25. With regards to weakening ….

    I honestly don’t know how Florence compares to size in Irma …..

    I remember with Irma, there were concerns of a landfall at a cat 5, but it came in at a 2?

    But consider …. that while landfall was in the Outer Keys, that Miami had a 100 mph wind gust, Jacksonville and Charleston had major flooding.

    I think its difficult to ascertain the strength of a hurricane sometimes when its energy is so spread out.

    What has more energy in it …. A Charley in 2,004 that had cat 4 winds, but such a small radius of those winds or an Irma, whose core winds were much less, but whose radius of winds was so much greater?

    I need to see what happens with Florence first along those lines to see how powerful it was.

    1. Like I said earlier, its not just the wind speed, its also the amount of time, and the amount of area the wind is going over.

  27. After reading the quote below, I wonder if Florence is really so special? If it is, what makes it so?

    “This is a horrific nightmare storm from a meteorological perspective,” University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd said. “We’ve just never seen anything like this. … This is just a strange bird.”

      1. Forgot to add that is why I asked the questions I did at the start of today’s blog. I am curious what factors are causing the meandering (which I know we have seen in the past but am not sure we have seen one play with the coast in my recent memory similar to this). And I was wondering if, while she decides what to do, a door could open to push her back out to sea.

        1. The meandering is because there is a lot of high pressure on at least 3 sides of the hurricane : east, north and west. Thus, the hurricane is now in no man’s land sort of speak, because it has a cop on 3 different sides with hands up, saying stop !

          The cop that is likely to blink first is the cop on the west side and thus, eventually, she’ll head west through either southern NC or northern SC.

  30. Regarding the above… Have you noticed that SOMEBODY always declares every major event to be something we’ve never seen before? Well, they’re right. We haven’t seen it if it hasn’t happened yet. That is the only truth to it. What they are actually trying to say falls flat on its face, because if you go back far enough in history you’ll find a very very similar event. The only issue for our needs is, most of the time it would be too far back so that we’d run out of data because it happened before we started recording it. Weather’s been around for a long, long time. But humans have centralized themselves so much that we now think it applies to us first, then everything else.

    1. It’s still moving, just a couple MPH more slowly. A band of convection formed on the north side of the eye and came around to the west side a little closer to the center giving the appearance of a stationary center, but it is still drifting WNW.

      1. Thank you sir. But it is decidedly slower then. 😀
        Latest HRRR has it slide down the coast all the way to SC.
        Does this seem plausible to you?

          1. I have landfall somewhere in southern NC or northern SC, about a 50 mile wide zone centered at the border of the 2 states.

    3. If FEMA has a list of what is allowed, why would they need this? Seems to me it is FEMA not doing its job. I am not a fan of negativity…which should not surprise anyone.

      1. Philip, I want to be very careful to say I am not in any way finding fault with you or your posting this. You are simply the messenger.

  34. Per tidal guages in Pamlico Sound, the water in the sound is being blown west to big cities like New Bern, NC and other locations on the west side of the sound.

    There are negative ‘surge’ anomolies being reported on the eastern side of the Sound, meanwhile, flooding is beginning in New Bern.

  35. Florence with a nice burst of convection, wrapping around its center.

    Hope everyone is ok up there in Lawrence/Andover

        1. I can only assume they do not have an idea of cause yet. I don’t recall ever hearing this. Although because I don’t recall doesn’t mean it has not happened

      1. Som in law said he suspects there was a surge or pressure somewhere that blew the gas valves and they are leaking at the gas valves. No idea but that was his best guess

        2. Yes, this actually happened somewhere else within the last couple years (I don’t remember exactly where but memory is telling me northern Midwest somewhere).

            1. I can’t remember off the top of my head but Minnesota keeps popping into my head, unless it was a dream! I swear this happened somewhere.

  40. I’m listening the Lawrence PD dispatch. I am so impressed with the coordination of many departments. God Bless our first responders and everyone in those areas

    1. That said, they are trying to shut down traffic into Lawrence and yet people are finding their way around on side streets which of course ties up resources needed elsewhere. Disgusting doesn’t begin to describe

      1. It truly is amazing Scott. Clearly this is something they have not dealt with before but wow they are like a fine tuned machine

    1. I am familiar with some of the areas.

      The place where they have set up command, I know it’s been closed for years, we went to the movies a lot.

      I feel for the people, this has to be unsettling and an a very out of world experience.

    1. We’re witnessing the pulling in of an outer eye wall. A brief increase in the wind and then it will level off and then start to fall off again. Too many dry air intrusions and soon too much interaction with land for intensification.

  43. On the positive. Lawrence PD just said there is a blue minivan with NH plates that arrived with 600bottles of water.

  45. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0geK.YwIJtbt5sA7jZx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTEzM21qaG9iBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM0BHZ0aWQDTlNSUEMwXzEEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1536921776/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.wunderground.com%2fweather-radar%2funited-states%2fnc%2fmorehead-city%2fmhx%2f/RK=2/RS=Ri6iVRA2SHrsAbteEf6xZQTSuC4-

    I sense the motion is now west at 3-5 miles and with the curving of the coast, this thing has a while over waters that are 83 – 85F. Some areas are going to sustain at 50-60 with hurricane force gusts for 12 or more hours.

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