9:14PM
Short and sweet tonight. High pressure dominates most of this week with fair weather being the rule. Weak fronts pass by later Wednesday and sometime early in Labor Day Weekend, based on current timing.
In the tropics, a new system is organizing far out in the Atlantic and is many days away from being any potential threat to land areas.
Forecast for the Boston Area…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55-60 coast and Boston, 50-55 elsewhere. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55-60. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 78-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 80.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 79.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers late. Low 62. High 83.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early. Low 62. High 81.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 77.
THE TWO SIDES OF THE IRENE STORY: SCIENCE AND PERCEPTION
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/
TK, I need a BBQ forecast. Better for Sat or Sun?
At this VERY early stage, I’m leaning with faster timing so Sunday would be better.
Thank you.
Power is back
Hope for everone else too.
Power just came on in Humarock. It came on in Framingham around 7. Yay
Vicki, did you see my response to your question about Unitil in the previous post? Glad that you and Tom got your power back…others are not so lucky.
Philip I hadn’t seen it but went back to read. They certainly did get their act together. All I ever got this week with nstar was a recording and not a sign of them in Framingham yesterday. I suspect they didn’t want to pay OT. There is s major road in framingham on wayland line that was still shut down at 6 tonight with at least two poles and a tree with wires. My daughter in uxbridge didn’t lose power but got continuous calls from national grid for updated. We didn’t get anything from nstar
Welcome back Vicki and glad to hear Humarock has the power back too !
Thanks Tom. Glad you have power also. Does that mean you are in school today?
Cancelled today, I’m thinking and hoping that it can start tomorrow.
ok dropping by to say hello
you said and i responded ..
Hah! Thanks Gayle. A loyal follower.
lol… i try
feels weird being up later than 8 i might be howling later tomorrow
Come on Gayle. You’re going to bed only a few hours before you usually get up! Now get some sleep so you can rise with the sun and the birdies! It’s going to be a beautiful day tomorrow!
Oh and by the way, did anyone ever tell you that your first name is a great name for a hurricane? I’m going to petition NWS to use it.
love being awake at 4 love it birds singing joyfully ( name that tune )
The Logical Song by Supertramp. Goodnight Gayle!
this whole week beautiful so amped
on that talk tomorrow toodles for now 
There was a guest meteorologist on the news (MSNBC I think?) tonight who was already saying he thinks the east coast is going to get walloped by Katia. I mean, come on. The threat is there, sure, but to say ten days out that he’s “pretty sure” we’re “in for it because hurricanes come in pairs” seems wholly irresponsible. Such alarmism, and all for ratings! Ugh.
Anyway, what a fabulous day today was! This week will be beautiful. Love that dry air!
100% agree!
People are worn out mentally. That is inexcusably irresponsible
There is a tropical storm Katia.
Today looks GREAT, and we need the Sox to win!
Going to a concert Saturday night in Lowell, hoping the rain stays away for the most part.
A heck of a week for sure. Nothing I love more then a cool dry morning. Just absolutely fablulious week!!
It’s really been two spectacular weeks in a row with a little exclamation point in the middle. It’s so quiet this morning – peaceful.
If anyone is beach bound today, the Boston Harbor water temp is now reporting 57F. Brrrrrr !!!!
Brrrr is right
We noticed a huge water temp drop Tom. Looks as if there are still a lot of places down here without power
Latest re: Tropical Storm KATIA
NHC is predicted it will become a major hurricane.
Here is this Morning’s 06Z run of the GFDL at 126 hours:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011083006-twelve12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr
It depicts a MAJOR hurricane at 943 mb with Max sustained winds of 104 knots or about 125 mph. It is in an ominous position. GFDL doesn’t go beyond 126 hours, or if it does, it is not available to me. The 06Z GFS of course goes out much farther and has it Missing us. LONG ways to go and we need to watch it, that is all.
06Z GFS at 126 hours:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011083006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr
Note that it is in a similar position to the GFDL, if not a bit to the South.
The GFS eventually turns it more Eastward missing us, but hitting Atlantic Canada.
06Z GFS at 252 hours, hitting Atlantic Canada and missing us to the East:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F30%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=252&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
So at least there is some hint that this thing will eventually turn to the EAST as suggested by JJ. Let us hope so.
Have a great day all!
Scott, who are you seeing?
Katia Model Tracks:
http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/regions/spec_sat10_600_en.jpg
Hi Tom,
While I am not surprised to see school cancellations at the bottom of my tv screen giving the circumstances, I am very surprised many school systems starting early before Labor Day. Up until now I had no idea. When did this “trend” start and why? I know in the south schools have always started early. When I went to Mass. Bay CC years ago, they started the week before also and I thought it was strange then. I suppose kids get used to the idea, but I bet it is a shock to the system at first knowing that kids in the next towns over still have a week and half left of summer vacation.
Hi Philip.
In Marshfield, I believe it started 3 years ago and I absolutely love it. Friday is off, so there’s a 4 day Labor Day Weekend, the three days are wonderful to get the students acclimated to the rules, a rotating schedule, different teacher for each subject and handing out books. Those 3 days also help to offset snowdays, allowing an end around June 15th, which I think is perfect.
According to Henry Margustiy, there is a trough from the Pacific that could move through in time to catch Katia and send her way…OTS. If the trough doesn’t come in time, then a repeat performance up the east coast. Will the trough be strong enough?
12Z GFS still a miss. So far it has been consistent from run to run, a good sign for us.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F30%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=240&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
12Z GEM GLB at 180 hours. Katia just showing up and quite far OTS.
Another good sign. We’ll keep watching. WAY EARLY yet.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=180&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1
12Z EURO is in. Shows a miss similar to what the 12ZGFS had. These are good EARLY signs.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=216&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=240&fixhh=1
I’m going to be seeing Matisyahu
Irene was going to miss us OTS then the track shifted back to the west, so much for tracks even a few days out. If Katia heads out into the Atlantic to no where I would be happy.
Scott,
Enjoy. Had to look it up to figure out who they/he were/was.
Hello everyone….. Still without power and once again at relatives house so I could blog. Although this is a pain without the power at least I still have a home that is standing. I saw pictures on the news where homes near the water were completely wiped out. My heart goes out to those people.
At least the weather here the next few days will be great for cleanup and getting power restored. Its looks to be a bit unsettled over the weekend.
I am glad to see there are signs Katia will stay away from here but until it makes the turn to the north this needs to be watched. The latest advisory and new track will be out at 5pm so will see what happens.
Good luck JJ, hope you get power soon !
Good luck JJ. Be safe
JJ,
Sorry that you are still out. Are you near the coast or inland?
I was amazed at the number of tress down and outages. I guess I was
lucky. I can only imagine what it would have been like with a Direct Hit from
a more powerful storm.
I am watching KATIA and trying not to worry, although, truth be known, I am worried. Here’s hoping she ejects OTS!
Hey Old Salty I live in the interior.
JJ, Thanks. Again, sorry you are still out. Hopefully you’ll be back on line soon.
Btw, I was just researching the Great Hurricane of 1938.
Katia is progged to be quite a bit East of the 38 hurricane at latitude 25 degrees.
38 was at 72 West at that latitude (moved almost Northward to get us) while Katia is progged to be at 62.5 West. Where will it go from there?
“Hopefully” all signs point to staying OTS. Just a tad too early to be comfortable
on that one.
At least all early indications as you pointed out show the storm staying away from us. There looks to be a cold front coming through Sunday Monday timeframe with showers and storms possible and that might be what prevents Katia from coming to the east coast.
Hi Guys- Glad to hear that Tom And Vicki have power back. Tom School here has been called off till next Tuesday- schools have no power.
Hi John,
Thanks and sorry to hear about the schools. In Marshfield, the Superintendent was just on the radio. He was to announce a decision at 5pm and said they were very close to be able to have school tomorrow, but had to resolve a few more issues. He will make his decision at 6pm. I hope we have school Wednesday and Thursday.
Well Tom since you want It I hope you have It, I would think you would be rooting for an extended vacation but do know these days count, June 15th was to be the last day here to. Tom where does your dad live in Pembroke. I was driving through Marshfield around 4:30 on Sunday to see the ocean, to my surprise It was calm. Tom If that wind stayed just like that and the storm lasted a few more hours I think we would have had a major hit. The trees here just seemed to be dropping like nothing. I hope you did not have any damage. I heard they were handing out ice at the highschool yesterday.
Hi Tom,
Thanks for your response to my post above. Just curious, do you teach junior high/middle school? If so, I wish you the best of luck this school year, lol.
Not to scare anybody but models r trending west
If there is going to be an impact to the east coast it would be late next week. I am hoping the cold front coming through Sunday Monday timeframe will block it from coming west and staying out over the fishes.
Thanks everyone. I hope to have power back sometime this week but at least I have relatives homes I could go to check on the weather and be able to blog here. One good thing with no power I am going to be early and catching up on the sleep I lost tracking Irene last week.
I think there is a Caribbean low which may eventually produce some strong Gulf activity. We don’t need Katia problems and the Gulf doesn’t need problems either.
Any thoughts from everyone about the weekend?
Sunday is the day which keeps looking worse to me — rain. I am trying to make a decision on which day to have a BBQ.
I am seeing that as well longshot:( I am trying to plan things as well!!
I am having my BBQ on Monday! I was planning on that day anyway and for now that is the better day…showers/thunderstorms for Sunday.
Also, Pete Bouchard on his blog seens fairly confident that the Sunday cold front will push Katia OTS…where she belongs.
Hi All- lost power tonight again in the middle of shaving from 6- 9pm. I don’t see any posts from Tom since later this afternoon, I suspect he may of lost it again to.
It seemed we got power in Humarock the same time tom got it and we didn’t loose it tonight. I think when they bring a section back on line they have to shut down a larger area but not normally for 3 hours. Hmmmm
JJ- I am sorry to hear you still have no power, I hope it returns soon.
Well, this morning’s GFS run should be topic for discussion today…..I’m off to work, the schools are open, have a good day all !!
Oh, the GFS develops Lee in the Gulf of Mexico, heads it northeast across Florida and right up the east coast and hooks it westward into the mid-Atlantic region. Complete 180 from yesterday.
Meanwhile, the EURO has Lee off of the Texas coast.